Regular readers over the last few Super Rugby seasons would know I don’t worry about waiting for the end of the season to look back over the pre-season predictions.
Sadly, while that may sound like a noble cause, it turns out that most predictions don’t need the full season to unravel.
Speaking of, here are said final finish predictions for this season from a month ago.
South Africa: Stormers, Lions, Jaguares, Sharks, Bulls.
New Zealand: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Blues, Chiefs, Highlanders.
Australia: Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels, Reds, Sunwolves.
I’m already happy to concede I’ve got plenty of finishing orders out of whack – most of them, actually – but I’m also claiming more than a few moral victories along the way.
I was right in suspecting the Lions and Stormers were the standouts in South Africa, though the Stormers are again showing an allergy to any Super Rugby ground that isn’t Newlands. I think they will still finish in the top half, though, and if you win all your home games, then that job is half done already.
The Lions look as near certainties already to top the conference as the Sharks, Bulls and Jaguares look thoroughly unlikely to trouble them at all. “I’m entirely unenthused about the Bulls, the Sharks still look too inconsistent to me to be considered a side that can press for the finals, and I think same applies to the Jaguares,” I wrote a month ago, and that all looks pretty spot on. I’m hugely disappointed about the Jaguares, I must say.
Again, I was right in ranking the Hurricanes and the Crusaders as the top sides in New Zealand, though the Crusaders’ current injury toll is doing its best to create a little gap between the two sides that wasn’t there a month ago.
The Highlanders weren’t on my radar at all last month – “The Highlanders are a bit of an unknown with a new coach in place, and players moving on” I said of them – but credit where it’s due, they’ve started the season in superb form to remain the only unbeaten side. They’re definitely one team I’ve got wrong, and though I think a few concurrent injuries could test them, they should also finish in the top half.
“And that just leaves the Blues and Chiefs, which I could honestly a flip a coin between,” is how I started a paragraph then, and it’s still the case now. The Chiefs look a bit shaky, and the Blues look very Blues-y. I did give the Blues some hope for 2018, but I’m not sure about that already.
When I first put the pre-season predictions out there, I wasn’t thinking of the Waratahs topping the Australian conference the week before I eventually did, and I’ll be honest, I haven’t been thinking about them topping the Australian conference much in the last few weeks either.
Does their shock thumping of the previously undefeated Rebels mean they now can? Well, I wouldn’t go that far, but it does keep them in touch in that mid-table group of teams they probably do belong among. They certainly needed that win; more than three wins would’ve been a hell of a gap to make up.
The Rebels are well ahead of schedule, and that’s a good thing. The loss on Sunday is probably a good thing, too; a timely reminder that they are aren’t infallible and are just as prone to dropping a game as anyone if they lose momentum themselves and allow the opposition to build it.
The Brumbies also needed that win over the Sharks on Saturday night, and like Daryl Gibson did with moving Israel Folau to the wing, Dan McKellar has now seen that the benefits of moving Christian Lealiifano out to 12 are pretty obvious and clear. Saturday night’s win was first real showing of what the Brumbies tried to implement in the trials.
They’ll be there or there abouts, and so will the Reds, who already need to be recognised as the shock team on the move in 2018.
It remains to be seen if Brad Thorn’s mantra of hard work and hard work alone can sustain them through the season – they’ve scored the fewest tries over the first five rounds, and by some margin – but Reds fans have plenty of reason to feel relieved that the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t nearly as far away as first thought.
And the Sunwolves… well, we love the mighty Moondogs, don’t we. I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect much of them, and so far, they’ve delivered on that. But more performances like their near-upset at Ellis Park and they’ll cause plenty of problems for more-fancied teams.
So, about those Wildcards…
FEBRUARY PREDICTIONS (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Lions, Brumbies, Jaguares, Rebels.
Crusaders can stay there, because I still think the Hurricanes top New Zealand. Lions won’t be there, because they’ll be topping South Africa in place of the Stormers, who should still snare a wildcard comfortably enough.
The Rebels earn a promotion too, and I think they have a very good chance to top the Australian conference.
The Jaguares won’t be there, however, and I don’t really know what I was thinking a month ago, believing they could change that much. I can comfortably give their spot to the Highlanders.
The Waratahs and Brumbies and Reds are really interesting, and though I could make an argument for all three claiming a wildcard, I think only two of them realistically can.
And on current form, I’m just not sure the Reds have enough points in them. Though they nominally sit fourth on the combined tables that SANZAAR like to pretend don’t exist, they have three wins and a -1 points differential!
Address that, and I’ll happily revisit.
Revised predictions
CONFERENCE WINNERS: Lions, Hurricanes, Rebels
WILDCARDS (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Stormers, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies.
Katipo
Guest
@Brett, so you agree two of the five participating countries are out after just one month: Japan and Argentina? Hugo Porta was reported in Argentinian media saying that "the Jaguares have no soul" because they are a made up franchise that's not connected to rugby's values. He is right. How to create and sustain interest in a complicated Mickey Mouse tournament that does not connect to rugby's grass roots values and entire nations are out of contention after one month? I can't help but jump to the conclusion that the 5 nation conference concept is flawed. The conferences need to be killed off and the fake franchises need to die along with them. The players and spectators deserve better. And let's get back to geographic team names: Auckland Rugby, NSW Rugby, Queensland Rugby, Jo'burg Rugby, Tokyo Rugby, Buenos Aires Rugby, etc. The silly nick names don't help at all.... Well, that's my opinion.
Katipo
Guest
It has to be a concern that one month in to the tournament it is basically over for supporters in NZ's biggest city Auckland. Likewise Tokyo and Buenos Aires. The conference format has to go.
Taylorman
Guest
Chiefs teams of the last two or three years do have an unusually high percentage injured, often 12 plus players out.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
The difference is that I don't wear a sky blue monocle when I watch. Your 41-7 can also be read as 3-20. Terrible stats for both teams. The Tahs were woeful in the first half. Stronger teams (like the jaguares ;) ) don't let you get away with that sort of play and maintain the pressure. The Tahs backs shone, and it showcased their skills, but it required the Rebels to make double digit unforced errors to let them get on the front foot. The early exit of a highball defender can't have helped the situation.
Captain Sensible
Guest
Riddler you are kidding yourself if you reckon Michael Cheika will select 6 Qld Red forwards in his game day 23.
Captain Sensible
Guest
Paul D , No chance he is a in QLD RED Jersey.Paenga-Amosa may make Chekkos 35 man squad, but he wont make the game day 23.
Malo
Guest
0-26 but yeah the oz conference are going to dominate the comp. Brett has a goldfish memory.
concerned supporter
Guest
Below is an extract from a recent blog from the Roar's Football tab, by Jim Condylis,I have changed 4 words,shown by { } there is an eerie correlation of Super Rugby to A-league Soccer. "“The crowds ( or studio audience,as the Tv guys consider them ) haven’t turned out and are gradually trending lower with each season . Just ask the Sydney FC {NSW Waratah} bean counters . Four of the ten franchises are on life support and if there were TV programs on their own right would have been cancelled long ago . The standard of football is pretty good , certainly the best of any competition in the land . But that’s not the point , people are not stupid . They know when something is real and has meaning and unfortunately the Mickey Mouse A league {Super Rugby} is just entertainment nothing more or less . The good news is that football or soccer {Rugby}from grassroots ( the kids ) right up to the State league {Shute Shield} competitions is alive and well . Con ( the Fan ) will still be there every weekend passionately supporting his team long after the TV guys have lost interest and moved on ”
Brett McKay
Expert
Yes, they are...
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Lots of valid points cuw. And a round robin can of course only be a single round robin (that is reversed the next year), but 14 games (7 home and 7 away) would not be too bad. The Sunwolves have been very hard done by SANZAAR, which just goes to show what amateurs they are (I have been on the record many times about this). Sunwolves will be around for the 2020 season also, but what happens after that is anyone's guess. I predict they will stay, and I also predict we will see more Japanese teams in SR after 2020 (especially if the WC is a reasonable success). TV-money and timezones are the name of the game in the pro era, and that is why SA eventually will join up with Europe, NZ and OZ will link with Japan and the rest of Asia, and Argentina will link up with the rest of the "Americas". SR, as we know it today, is living on borrowed time.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
cuw They have a couple of big locks that already have made a difference: Saffa Grant Hatyingh and the Aussies James Moore and Sam Wykes. Add the loosies Michael Leitch, Willy Britz, Lappies Labuschagne and Ed Quirk and you shall see that they have enough tall timber (it has been the throwing that has been the problem with their lineout so far). Their scrum is not too shabby either, they rarely get dominated a scrum time. And their Japanese front rowers are not bad at all. No depth you say? Have you looked through their squad? They have way more depth than they ever had before, which is one reason I actually think they will get stronger and stronger as the season moves on. Look at their results so far, yes only losses, but they lose with much much smaller margins now and with a tiny bit of luck they could have beaten both Brumbies and Lions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunwolves#Current_squad
Jacko
Guest
WILDCARDS (4th to eighth): Crusaders, Stormers, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies. i just recounted.... NZ wild cards 2 Aus wild cards 2 meaning 3 NZ in finals.....3 Aus in finals...2 SA in finals are your picks
Jacko
Guest
i wish i knew that before the season started...A couple of $$ would have got good odds
Jacko
Guest
Where is Tman when you need him. Certainly having Cruden and James lowe would help but its the forwards that are devistated at the Chiefs at the moment...getting props from club rugby apparently but the Saders are also having massive injury issues too
Jacko
Guest
yeah they are a very young side...if Thorn can rotate and rest some of the younger guys then maybe they can do some damage but it is difficult to see them topping the Aus conference at this stage
Brett McKay
Expert
Jacko, I think you might need a recount...
Scottd
Guest
Brett I think you are calling this way too early but I guess that is part of the fun! Super Rugby is a war of attrition. The teams with the greatest depth always come through in the second half. And we haven't even finished the first half yet! I think wr can write off the Sunwolves and maybe the Jaguares but I don't think I'd be writing anyone else off just yet. And isn't that exactly how we want it!!!! Plenty of really interesting games to come...... Cheers
Jacko
Guest
Hi Piru, Yeah i fully understand that its easier to top your conference if you are in a weaker conference and last year proved that with the brumbies finishing 9th on points but getting automatic qualifcation due to topping their conference. The Wild card part is the bit I am strugling to understand. Surely if the NZ conference is harder ( but relatively equal) and the Aus conference is easier ( but reletively equal) then earnig a wild card comes down to either beating most in your conference or winning more of the cross conference matches. Based on that Brett has selected the Waratahs and brumbies to win more cross conference matches than the Chiefs or the Blues. So to me Brett must believe that the Tahs and Brumbies are stronger. Either that or he believes that the Tahs and Brumbies will beat the REDS and Jaguares no probs and the Chiefs and Blues will lose to their NZ conference opposition. The wild card all comes down to cross conference to me......All good tho as all entitled to their opinions I just wanted Brett to explain why he selected 2 Aus conference WCS and 2 NZ WCS instead of like last year when it was 3 NZ wild cards and 0 Aus wild cards. Have the Tahs and Brumbies turned it around that much this year? I havnt seen any real evidence to suggest that.
Fionn
Guest
Like it, Riddler! A few queries over the front row, but would be happy enough for that team to take the field were it played next week.
cuw
Guest
I wish they could get a couple of Saffa 2nd rowers - there are plenty in Europe and not chosen for the boks. Japs lack the height at lineout - to be a serios threat of that aspect and also the scrum is not very strong. the addition of Islanders has really made a difference to the backs. but another problem is they have no depth at all - the jap guys are too small to be competiitve against the bigger teams.