Finally the 2018 season is upon us, and with just days to go until the cars take to Melbourne’s Albert Park street circuit, now is the time to get your season predictions in.
Across a gruelling 21-race calendar, which teams will succeed and which will flounder? Who can best their teammate and who will fail to find a seat for 2019?
1. Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton (44), Valtteri Bottas (77)
Throughout preseason testing the reigning constructors champion oozed the coolness of a squad that knows it’s onto a winner, and with the W09 an evolution of last year’s car, there are no prizes for plumping for a fifth Mercedes constructors title.
An advantage as large as some preseason models suggest would leave the responsibility for creating title tension with Valtteri Bottas, but the Finn had teammate Lewis Hamilton’s measure on precious few occasions last year. Without employing Nico Rosberg-style mind games to destabilise the increasingly confident Briton, there’s little reason to believe Hamilton’s fifth title isn’t there for the taking.
(Image supplied by AMG Petronas Motorsport).
2. Red Bull Racing
Daniel Ricciardo (3), Max Verstappen (33)
Red Bull Racing’s principal recent weaknesses have been underpowered engines and underprepared cars. Late last season its chassis won with a lack of grunt; an out-of-the-box quick car should therefore present a credible threat regardless of power.
While Ferrari has struggled with aerodynamic reimaginings, RBR’s design team have penned an evolutionary chassis that will contend for class-of-the-field honours.
Max Verstappen is newly re-signed; Daniel Ricciardo is out of contract, and the Australian’s decision will be based on the RB14’s competitiveness as well as his own against his teammate. Ricciardo performs in crunch moments. This battle is too close to call.
(Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
3. Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel (5), Kimi Raikkonen (7)
Ferrari has historically struggled to perpetuate momentum after underdog seasons, and this year looks unlikely to be an exception. The team has been bold to adapt its competitive 2017 car, but it has fallen behind Red Bull Racing in the process, and RBR must be favourite to out-develop the Italian team.
Can the Ferrari power unit bridge the gap? Only if the Renault engine is a genuine shocker, which is unlikely. The real challenge will be handling a small step backwards without embarking on an ugly and unnecessary round of bloodletting.
Sebastian Vettel beats Kimi Raikkonen in a landslide. Obviously.
4. Renault
Carlos Sainz (55), Nico Hulkenberg (27)
The first of many fascinating midfield battles. Renault made enormous strides last year despite its underwhelming power unit to have the fourth-fastest car by season’s end. Consistency and momentum will win it fourth place against engine customer McLaren, and with title tilt pegged to 2020, nothing less would be acceptable.
Fascinating too is Carlos Sainz’s battle with Nico Hulkenberg. The former’s reputation rests on beating his teammates and the latter needs a competitive teammate to perform. They will benefit each other, but Hulkenberg will come off second-best in what could become a defining season for the – whisper it – journeyman.
5. Haas
Romain Grosjean (8), Kevin Magnussen (20)
The quasi-American team’s 2018 performance – its sophomore season but the first under new regulations – was an important clue that Haas is made of the right stuff, and preseason testing suggested it’s in the P4 hunt. I’m buying the hype.
The trick to that consistency is the blending of off-the-shelf Ferrari and Dallara parts with Haas’s own performance bits. This and no major changes this year will pay dividends.
This is therefore a big year for Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen as they continue rehabilitating their careers. If the car is as refined as testing suggested, Grosjean will use it best.
(Haas F1)
6. McLaren
Fernando Alonso (14), Stoffel Vandoorne (2)
McLaren set the bar impossibly high by proclaiming it would be a Red Bull Racing-beater with the same power unit. Inevitable and predictable teething problems during testing have likely put paid to that dream.
I expect McLaren-Renault to be competitive by the end of the season, but lost points to unreliability early will cost it championship positions and leave it with a well-egged face.
Fernando Alonso, if he can control his emotions, will put Stoffel Vandoorne away in a close contest while the team pulls itself together.
7. Force India
Sergio Perez (11), Esteban Ocon (31)
F1’s best bang-for-buck team tested with a car scarcely upgraded from last year’s version, but even though Force India, with the smallest budget of all constructors, has a major upgrade for Australia, holding back the cashed-up Renault and McLaren was always going to be a bridge too far. Haas’s leap forward, however, will be a disappointment.
Though Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon agreed to an armistice after numerous clashes last season, both know beating the other is crucial to any big-team promotion. Only Ocon comes out of it alive.
8. Toro Rosso
Pierre Gasly (10), Brendon Hartley (28)
Honda’s preseason reliability pleasantly surprised Toro Rosso, Formula One and perhaps even Honda. Though it remains the weakest of the four power units, Toro Rosso expects the gap could close this season – but that’ll be too late to make up for small early scores.
Pierre Gasly is a highly rated rookie, but Brendon Hartley is a two-time World Endurance Champion, making this a more potent line-up than appears on paper. Harley’s experience should see him edge the Frenchman.
(Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
9. Williams
Lance Stroll (18), Sergey Sirotkin (35)
Williams’s slide from successive third places in 2014–15 has been excruciating – last year it barely managed fifth, and this year looks only worse.
Paddy Lowe is now in control of design and believes this new-concept car has potential to be unlocked, but the team has a poor development record in recent years. Reversing that trend will define this season.
The Lance Stroll-Sergey Sirotkin battle holds much intrigue, with neither highly rated. Stroll, with a year of F1 experience, would be disappointed not to lead the Russian, cementing his reputation as a pay driver in the process.
10. Sauber
Marcus Ericsson (9), Charles Leclerc (16)
Sauber, with fresh backing from Alfa Romeo, will continue the arduous rebuilding process after teetering on the brink of collapse in 2016. The Italian euros will begin taken effect this season, so meaningful advances won’t be evident until late in the year and into 2019.
Charles Leclerc’s junior results have marked him as one of the generation’s most exciting new talents, and few rate Marcus Ericsson’s chances of beating the Monegasque – the Swede’s main task is to limit the damage sufficient to keep his seat from Antonio Giovinazzi in 2019.
Now we only need wait for the lights to go out this Sunday at Albert Park, when even the best of predictions could yet be proved flawed.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I don't see Toro Rosso challenging for wins, I'm afraid. The team just doesn't have the budget to develop at the speed of the top teams and the Honda engine, while apparently reliable, is still underpowered compared to the others. Perhaps in the coming years this might turn into a place near the frontrunners, but Red Bull will always provide it less funding relative to the senior team. I am excited about this driver line-up, though. I think there's a lot of potential in it.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I'm talking about aerodynamics regulations changes. The cars of 2017 were substantially different to those of the previous season. Hamilton's titles have been no softer than some of Schumacher's. He had one particularly easy year in 2015, but in 2014 and 2016 he was challenged, obviously losing the latter to Nico Rosberg, as you said. Last year he walked to the title in the final races only because Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel tripped over themselves. Sure, you can argue this makes it a soft win, but for three quarters of the year he fought hard for it, and I don't think those efforts should be discounted. I will be curious about Sergey Sirotkin, but Williams is keen to emphasise that its driver line-up — in other words, not choosing Robert Kubica — was down to performance and not money. That might be the case, but the argument is there to be made to the contrary, and Williams needs to make sure its brand isn't damaged by not making the counterpoint. I think you could well be right about Romain Grosjean and Sergio Perez, but at least in Nico Hulkenberg's case he can hang onto his Renault drive as the team improves to (potentially) championship-winning contention and try to prove himself then. I think Sainz will likely outclass him, though. I think Stoffel Vandoorne will come good. A bit like Kevin Magnussen before him, it's hard to find your feet and perform as a rookie when the entire team is in turmoil around you. But you're right to say he needs to start converting his junior career wins into F1 form to save his reputation.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Power units are still performance differentiators, but there has been significant scope opened up to make aerodynamic gains since last season. I don't see much problem with that. Obviously it's no good when one team — or, in this case, power unit supplier — is consistently ahead of everyone else, but Formula One has always been about technical excellence, engine and chassis. Also, the Ferrari power unit is thereabouts, and Renault suffered last year because its fragility made worse its lack of power. The reason they can't neutralise this advantage is because it's substantially more expensive and requires significant lead times to redesign a Formula One engine — for example, they need to finalise the details for new engines in 2021 this year to allow current manufacturers and potential new entrants enough time to design, build and test. Moreover a redesign, while potentially shaking up the order, will likely give one team or another an advantage, as is always the case when regulations change, taking us back to sqaure one.
Scott Pryce
Roar Rookie
Agreed, its a shame we have to endure teams making a full blown effort towards the end of the season all for nothing, why not from the start of the season, on the edge. I wish for something like 2009, this time with a couple of teams rocking the establishment and it is a season of racing, lets not have circuits suiting respective cars and race predictability, lets have the drivers facing off no matter where. Some freshness is needed. I've not sat on the edge of my seat or held my breath watching F1 for a long tome.
anon
Roar Pro
I don't see how a team will make a charge late in the season. Any team that pushes the bounds of performance will end up with a ridiculous penalty for using new parts.
Scott Pryce
Roar Rookie
It will no doubt be a status quo start to the season. Fortunately it begins in Australia which has a great circuit and not at some boring track in the Middle East. We haven't seen anything happen in the off season that has sparked an interest in any one team or driver. But, during the latter part of season 2017 we seen something happen which could add great interest to the season. Torro Rosso signed Pierre Gasly and Brendon Hartley, two of the most credentialed drivers to enter F1 for a while, and they changed over to Honda engines. Torro Rosso have in years gone by, since their purchase from Minardi by Red Bull, ticked over doing exactly what the team was bought for to act as a junior team to Red Bull Racing. Now with anticipated budget cuts Torro Rosso are aiming to stand alone and have selected drivers and an engine to take them into the new era of F1 in few years. Torro Rosso will be the standout this season and will challenge for victories. The rest you have stated Michael is pretty spot on. Maybe some of the older drivers should take gardening leave as there seems to be some talented young drivers waiting in the wings, that would spice up the racing.
Simoc
Guest
And of course, Nico Rosberg outpointed Lewis Hamilton in his last F1 season. What regulation changes? The motors are still the hybrids where the Mercs have dominated and Hamilton has strolled to victory when he hasn't had a pesky teammate to challenge him. Hamiltons F1 titles have been the softest in history but the Poms won't mind that. And he is a great driver. Sirotkin was so dominant in testing as reported for Williams, I'm thinking he is the next big thing. Certainly, Williams hope and need this to be so. This is the season that we will see if Hulkenburg is more than a one lap wonder once in F1. I'm also expecting Sainz to beat him. To many stagnant seasons for the Hulk while Sainz was fighting with the real deal in Verstappen. I think Grosjean is a journeyman now as will be Perez after this season. Top drivers but not as good as the best out there now. Sauber are a waste of space on the grid these days. Vandoorne has been a flop at McLaren and needs to turn this perception around this season. So many plaudits combined with so little performance in F1.
anon
Roar Pro
I don't think the reg changes last year really changed anything. They could still put as much time and money into their engines as their opposition. They had demonstrated they are the best engine designers in the business. It was/still is an engine-dominated formula. For me the best era was 2006-2013 were we had the V8 engines effectively homologated. Teams would innovate with things like the F-Duct, double diffusers, blown exhausts, flexible wings, mass dampers but they'd eventually get banned in order to create a more even competition. Nothing has been done to neutralise Mercedes engine advantage. The FIA would quickly neutralise RBR's aerodynamic advantages in their championship years. Last year the Ferrari was legitimately faster than the Mercedes at about 4 races -- Monaco, Hungary, Singapore, likely Malaysia. Since 2014 it's been awful.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Keep your fingers crossed! If Mercedes really does start with an advantage, I think the front should close up enough to battle for wins by the second half of the year at least.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
To be fair, they did change the rules last season, which was supposed to shift the advantage towards Red Bull Racing. That really just underlined how good this Mercedes team is — it's the first team to win back-to-back championships across regulation changes. Also, Hamilton did have to work (for most of) last season for his title. Were it not for some key errors and failures on Ferrari's part, it would've gone down to the wire.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I thought I'd go for some ambitious picks! I think the midfield will be close and Renault, Haas and McLaren will likely be battling for those places. The Renault battle will be really interesting. This is probably the best opportunity we've had to assess Hulkenberg, and while I think he's quick, I really think Sainz is on that next level. He compared well with Verstappen, which I think says plenty. But we'll see!
anon
Roar Pro
I don't understand why Mercedes dominance is tolerated. The FIA did everything to neuter Ferrari and Red Bull during their championship runs. Mercedes is given free reign. As big a fan as I am, this might be the year I just stop going out of my way to watch races. These Hamilton championships are some of the most hollow championships ever won this sport.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Rob, I know you say "hopefully", but what do you think is realistic in the battle for 1st?? I tend to think Mercedes has already got one hand on the prize, do you feel RBR and Ferrari can take it to them?
Rob Davison
Roar Rookie
Can't wait for the new season! Interesting to see that you have Haas up there, i reckon Force India will be the dark horse again this season. Three way battle hopefully between Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari with all six drivers fighting for the championship!
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Nice write up. Interesting you have Haas up in 5th ahead of McLaren and the Force India's (weren't they going to rebrand this year??) That might be vital for Grosjean, I have long felt that he is a possibility for a Ferrari seat post-Kimi, so a great season from him now is pretty vital. The only disagreement I have in your head-to-heads is at Renault. I think Hulkenberg will beat Carlos Jr this year. He will plug along, scoring solid points, and my bold prediction for the year is: He will get his first podium (finally!!)