The Golden State Warriors have been the powerhouse of the NBA for the past three years.
In that span, they have made three finals appearances, won two championships, acquired arguably the best player in the NBA whose name is not LeBron in Kevin Durant, and have built a super team with four all-stars, that is capable of being a dynasty if they are not one already.
And yet, for a team with so much talent and so much success, including two former MVPs, the simple fact is that they will not win the NBA championship this year. They will not even make it out of the Western Conference.
While the Warriors are a very talented team, and were the favourite to win the championship at the start of the season, the 2017-18 season has been the statistically worst season in the Steve Kerr era of the franchise.
They are currently sitting at a pretty decent record of 54-19, but by Warriors standard that record is not the best. In fact, while the record is solid and the season is not complete, it is already the worst record they have recorded in the Steve Kerr era, showing how dominant they have been in the past, and also how steep the competition is this year.
The Warriors face many concerns and challenges, which makes seeing a return to the finals for a fourth straight year seem a lot less likely than it seemed at the beginning of the season.
Currently injuries are a major concern for the Warriors, with all of their All Stars currently out with injury. Steve Kerr recently told the media that Steph Curry is likely to miss the entirety of the first round of the playoffs, which is a major blow for the team.
The starting line-up they put out in their most recent outing against the Utah Jazz shows how hard the Warriors have been hit with injuries. The starting line-up they played on the night consisted of McCaw, Looney, Young, McGee and Cook, which is a far cry from the super team line-up they usually play with on a night to night basis.
While the band, Curry excluded, should all realistically be back together come the first round of the playoffs, injuries are not the only concern facing the Warriors. The last three years there has not seemed to be a team that could challenge the Warriors.
This season, however, is a different story. Every team currently within the Western conference playoff seeding, besides the New Orleans Pelicans, have defeated the Warriors on at least one occasion, some of the victories being very comfortable wins for the opposition.
The Houston Rockets are the biggest threat, and ultimately are more likely to win the West and play in the NBA Finals. They have broken franchise records, have two All Star players in James Harden, who is basically a lock for the MVP award, and Chris Paul, along with a frightening offensive punch, and terrific bench depth. For once, the Warriors are not the team to beat this season, the Rockets are.
Other teams in the West have been on stellar runs coming up to the playoffs as well, with the Portland Trailblazers and Oklahoma City Thunder being prime examples. Both teams could give the Warriors a serious fight, and could ultimately push the Warriors to their limit. Damien Lillard has been exceptional, averaging MVP numbers in 2018, and Westbrook has been consistently in ‘beast mode’, nearly averaging a triple double.
Both teams have great supporting casts, with the Thunder having something the Warriors do not have: a reliable and efficient big man in Steven Adams, who is also having a breakout year.
The Warriors face some tough competition this season, and while they are will likely not be eliminated early in the playoffs, injuries and wear and tear will play a factor, and they will be pushed this season, more so than any other year in the Steve Kerr era.
They are not the favourites to win, and ultimately the Rockets have been absolutely superb, as have other teams, and they may prove far too much of a challenge for the Warriors to take down this season.
What do you all think? Do you agree with the article and believe the Warriors will be taken down this year? Or do you think they make it out of the West, and potentially win it all?
express34texas
Guest
Kerr's a solid coach. He turned a 1st round loser in 2014 to NBA champions in 1 year, hard to argue with that, and they've been awesome ever since. GS will still have to go 6-1 over final 7 games to reach 60 wins, probably won't happen, but they've remained elite. All of their stars have missed some games, but all have still played quite a few, too. Curry has missed 24, KD 14, Green, 12, Thompson 9. This is pretty typical for players. They've all managed to play big chunks of the season still. And their bench is still stacked. They can go 15 deep, if they could suit up 15. Even if GS didn't have KD/Curry, they'd probably be favorites to beat any team in the West other than HOU. But, by the time the WCF rolls around, GS will likely have all of their players back. I have a hard time seeing HOU beating GS if that's the case, even if Harden is the best player in the series. Though, while HOU lost 4-1 to GS in the 2015 WCF, I thought Harden was the best player in games 1-2 and 5. HOU easily could've won games 1-2, too. This year's version of HOU is much better; however, GS has KD now, too. HOU will face adversity at some point in the playoffs. How will they respond? Harden/Paul don't have a good track record facing adversity overall, but HOU is looking pretty good with lots of weapons now.
express34texas
Guest
The recipe for success in the nba is almost always having a top 5-6ish player at the very least and a solid cast without almost always at least an AS-caliber #2 guy. This pretty much eliminates POR, though Lillard's cast is playing very well, and if they up their near-elite defensive intensity a little more, who knows. Lillard will have to be the best player in each series. This could happen for a series or 2, but 3? Highly doubtful. Davis just doesn't have enough help yet in NOP. If Kawhi is back for the playoffs and playing well, then SA shouldn't be written off. OKC does have the recipe for succes, though. RW can still play like an MVP, and will need to in each series, but most best players on title teams do throughout the playoffs. His #2 is George, who is still a big-time player and has led his teams 2x in CF, and almost the Finals against much more stacked MIA teams. He'll have to play great, but certainly can, and on both sides of the ball. Melo is still capable of playing very well and can be a solid #3 guy. Adams is a quality center on both sides of the ball, which is rare in today's game. That's 4 solid guys. Some title teams basically only have needed 6-7 guys. OKC will need to get some production out of 2-4 other guys, too, but it's right there for them. They're a top 10 team on offense and defense, which is also another recipe for success. Margin of victory is a key team stat for translates well to title teams. Right now, only 3 teams have high margins: HOU(9.4), TOR(8.1), GS(6.8). BOS is 4th at 4.0. Hard to see TOR/BOS seriously contending unless when their star players aren't playing like top 15ish players, but they have a chance. In the East, it kind of depends where CLE/PHI end up. I wouldn't put it past PHI to beat CLE, but probably unlikely, especially since they'll be new to the playoffs. Between TOR, BOS, and CLE, whoever has to beat 2 of these teams probably won't make it, meaning it's much easier to win 1 tough series than 2 tough series.
express34texas
Guest
POR is higher than I expected, too. And Lillard deserves credit, but so does the rest of the team and the coaching staff. Lillard's probably playing the best ball of his career, but it's too easy to get caught up crediting the team's best player sometimes, depending on he situation. Even with KD/Curry hurt a bunch this year, hard to put Lillard higher than 6th or 7th at best for MVP.
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
They have had a very solid season still swampy, but there is a lot more competition out west this year, and the Warriors have looked weaker for whatever reason this season. All the other teams in the playoff seeding have taken it to them this season, and I honestly think we'll see Houston in the Finals for the West
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
I agree, it will be either Houston or Golden State in the Finals. Teams like OKC and Portland have been really good, but not at the level of the Warriors or Rockets. However, I could still see one of them knocking off the Warriors, but I don't think any of the other teams besides Houston will make the Finals. Harden has been very good this season, and I think as you said, the addition of CP3 will help take the load off of Harden during the post season, which will help his performance
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
I'm glad you understand what I'm saying now. And yes, Harden has been very good this calendar year and will win the MVP award. And you bring up some very good arguments about Harden. I just really rate the way Lillard has carried his team this year, and they are a lot higher in the standings than I expected them to be
Swampy
Guest
If gsw make it through the first round then with their full team back they would reassume favouritism in my view. They have still managed a 60+ win season whilst having all their stars plus multiple bench players injured at one time or another. Due to the construct of their roster it's been very difficult to assess Steve Kerr's ability as a coach - this season has shown that he is at least more than a good man manager.
express34texas
Guest
HOU looks like the team now, but if GS has at least 3 of their AS healthyish, they're still probably the team. Just too much star power with them. Several other teams out West could make some noise, but something really strange needs to happen for someone other than HOU or GS to make it to the Finals. Julz, Harden definitely has a mixed bag in the playoffs. You're right, he's had some horrid games, but he's also played phenomenal in big games, too. He was bad in game 6 against SA in 2nd round last year, but even if he went for 50 that game, SA still wins, and that was without Kawhi. That goes to show you how good SA's cast could be, and Harden's cast wasn't up to the challenge. Paul probably helps HOU and Harden the most by lightening the load for Harden and sharing ball-handling/playmaking duties. This helps Harden save some energy and focus on other things more. You can see how this one thing can really help a star player. If Jordan was his team's only playmaker during his time, this would've adversely affected him a lot. However, he had Pippen, so then he could primarily focus on scoring, which he's admitted to.
express34texas
Guest
I see what you're saying now, but was kind of confusing. Every season is played in 2 calendar years and MVP voting is for a full season, not 1/2 or 3/5 season. When I and most people mention a season, it's usually just the year it finishes. Lillard has played very well, and probably deserves some MVP votes, but serious MVP consideration is another thing. POR is both solid defensively and offensively, but they're winning more via their defense, which Lillard doesn't have that much to do with. He's pick up his play lately, but Harden is still definitely playing better since January 1. HOU is 34-5 since January 1(which comes out to a 71-win team over 82 games), and 29-2 in games which Harden has played(which comes out to a 77-win team over 82 games).
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
Um express, if you read my comment you'd see I said "if" it was picked purely on the year "2018". The 2017-18 season obviously has been running a lot longer than that, and Lillard has only recently started playing exceptionally this current calendar year. He has put up MVP numbers this calendar year and has been exceptional, is the point I wad trying to get across.
express34texas
Guest
Lillard-MVP? He barely made the AS team.
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
Would love to see the Spurs beat them as revenge, as it could have been quite an interesting series had Kawhi remained healthy for last year's playoffs.
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
It would be amazing to see a Hayward-less Jazz not only beat the Warriors, but make it far. I really like the Jazz and would love to see them or the Blazers, who have also been playing really well, make it far. Lillard would be my MVP pick if the MVP vote was based purely in 2018. The Warriors have been very hit and miss, especially against the other star powered teams in the West like Houston or OKC. I could see either of those two teams, especially Houston, knocking them off. Both Harden and Westbrook have been exceptional again this year.
Liam Clark
Roar Guru
The Warriors are still a threat, that's no question. But I don't feel like they are the biggest threat. Rockets are definitely the team to beat this season, and Harden is rolling, and the team chemistry for the team is off the charts. Durant can play out of his mind, as I know because I'm a big OKC fan and he used to be my favourite player. But the competition is a lot stronger this year, and I just can't see the Warriors making it out. The Jazz, Thunder, Blazers, Rockets or Spurs could all beat the Warriors in my opinion. I honestly think Houston will win it all, but I would love to see my Thunder win it. It's gonna be an interesting playoffs for all teams involved, that's for sure.
Mike Julz
Guest
Write them off at your own peril, they still a big threat, and still the favourites. They lucky they got Curry out but not Durant. Durant is their best player and can average 35+ in the playoffs unlike Curry. Rockets are rolling but time will tell if they can handle the warriors big 3 shooters and their dpoy once they fully fit. Hardens is known for chocking in the big games but he's on fire this year. He's mvp for sure. I want Spurs to meet Warriors in the first playoffs tho, with Kawhi back and Curry out, bloody good payback. But I'm rooting for my okc, hope they bloody bring it in the playoffs and shock everyone.
Jerry
Guest
I'd rather see the Spurs beat them with Kawhi returning to dominate - revenge for his injury at the hands of Zaza in last year's playoffs. Don't see it happening though.
Tom Falco
Roar Rookie
Couldn't agree more. Even without the injuries, I'd be worried if I was a Golden State Warriors fan. They've been hit and miss against Western Conference rivals this season. Houston are the clear favourites and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warriors fail to make the Conference Finals - Portland, Utah and OKC look like they're hitting their strides heading into the playoffs. How good would it be to see a Hayward-less Jazz knock off the Warriors in the first round!?