Crows win grand final rematch at home - and might have won a grand final there, too

By Anthony / Roar Pro

In the grand final replay at the Adelaide Oval, the Tigers went down 118-82, continuing a losing trend against the Crows. The Tigers have now lost all four games against the Adelaide Crows at the Adelaide Oval.

They have done a little better against the Geelong Cats. Since 1991 the Richmond Tigers have beaten Geelong once (in 2006) at Simonds Stadium. The Cats have a 13-1 record against the Tigers at Simonds Stadium (from 1991).

Remember these statistics.

There is nothing minor about winning the regular home-and-away season in the AFL. But you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise.

In winning the 2017 AFL grand final, the Richmond Tigers played three home finals games at the MCG. This is despite Richmond finishing fourth in the regular home-and-away season. And what of 2017 minor premiers Adelaide and runner-up Geelong?

Both the Cats and Crows finished higher on the ladder than the Tigers, both ultimately gave up home ground advantage to face the Tigers at the G, and it is history now that both lost to the Tigers.

Would the result have changed without the home ground advantage? It comes down to odds. Do you still remember those statistics?

Here is a couple of question for the pundits out there, what were the odds of the Tigers beating both the Cats and the Crows at the MCG in the AFL 2017 finals? How much do those odds change if the Tigers instead play at fortress Simonds Stadium and the Tigers graveyard at Adelaide Oval? While people could debate the result, no-one can debate the odds would be far tougher for the Tigers.

And that is why the AFL premiership lacks integrity. The odds for the climatic finals are tilted not in favour of the Minor Premiers/Runner-up, but in favour of MCG tenant teams (Tigers, Hawks, Pies and Demons).

MCG tenant teams have won six of the past ten AFL grand finals (60 per cent). And you could argue there is a 60 per cent chance that one of these teams will add to that tally again in 2018. These teams only need to finish fourth, and that is equivalent to winning the minor premiership. So does the minor premiership count or not?

The truth is the AFL minor premiership in Australia is underrated, poorly named and in need of a serious makeover. Since 2001 only five teams: the Hawks (2013), Collingwood (2010), Geelong (2007), West Coast (2006), and Port Adelaide (2004) have won the AFL minor premiership and went on to claim the AFL Premiership.

But in remembering those clubs, we are forgetting the 12 teams who have won the marathon race which is the regular AFL home-and-away season, only to go home empty handed: Adelaide (2017), Sydney (2016), Fremantle (2015), Sydney (2014), Hawthorn (2012), Collingwood (2011), St Kilda (2009), Geelong (2008), Adelaide (2005), Port Adelaide (2003), Port Adelaide (2002), Essendon (2001).

If past is an indicator of the future, should your team go on to win the minor premiership, 70 per cent of the time they will not win the MCG grand final. Advantage is not in favour the minor premiers. Sure, the top two teams get a double chance, but what good is a double chance if it is played at an opposition’s home ground?

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

If a best of three grand final is not an option, what instead can be done?

There is an obscure competition in England known as the English Premier League (EPL) that honours the top regular season team with the premiership. AFL could do well to follow suit and scratch the Mickey Mouse title AFL ‘minor’ premiers and bestow the title of AFL Premiers on the team which is still standing after the phenomenally hard, regular season marathon.

Celebrate this success EPL style. Large trophy, home city parades, fanfare, big cash prize, and sponsorship.

Second, rebadge the AFL finals as the AFL Champions League. The team that wins the Championship on the MCG deck on grand final day becomes the AFL Champions.

Now given the MCG hosts the GF, all teams need a decent amount of exposure to the MCG. The MCG should be intimately familiar to all teams, not just a select few.

Since 2001, the Dockland tenant teams Bulldogs, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton have been burdened to play out of the smaller Docklands Stadiums. As Docklands experts, not MCG experts, these teams have won a messily one of the past 17 premierships (5%).

The draw should see Melbourne clubs play an equal number of games at Docklands and the MCG during the regular season. This removes the disadvantage against Docklands tenant teams. It helps MCG tenant teams during the regular season become accustom to playing on smaller grounds in the battle of the AFL Premiership (aka currently named the minor premiership).

For the interstate teams (and the Cats), the draw needs to ensure a maximum number of games at the MCG and minimal number of games at Docklands. The number of MCG games should be equal between all interstate teams.

Most people including myself want to see the MCG as the venue for the GF. But when it comes to the lead up finals games, Melbourne teams must earn the right to play at the MCG. If they don’t earn the right, they do what teams do in every major sporting competition on the planet do, they hit the road and play an away game.

(AAP Image/David Mariuz)

Now if it is a question of MCG revenue, the MCG and AFL could have on standby a State of Origin clash that is the best of the rest where players from eliminated teams can play. Other standby games could be legends, youth, celebrities and best of the AFLW.

At least then integrity is restored to the AFL premiership race and the awesome task of winning the tough as nails, regular season marathon can be recognised.

What do you think, should the ‘minor’ premiers be bestowed as AFL premiers, and the GF winners be acclaimed as the AFL Champions?

What about fixtures, should MCG exposure be maximised for all teams or just the MCG tenant teams (Demons, Pies, Hawks, and Tigers)?

The Crowd Says:

2018-04-02T23:32:40+00:00

john singleton

Roar Rookie


Surely there is no other place to play Grand Final. Your own statement Brisbane 3 Sydney Adelaide West Coast all won At the G. Seems you want to play in front of 40 to 50 Thousand. It is a privilege to play there the home of game. I WOULD BE more worried about the game being taken away from fans becoming a corporate only Grand Final

2018-04-02T22:19:00+00:00

Milo

Roar Rookie


What a load of bollocks. Firstly the grand final is played at the MCG. It has been for every year of the AFL and scheduled to be so for some years to come. Its the best ground in Australia with the best capacity and great viewing. Get over it. Secondly Adelaide is 2 from 3 at the MCG in Grand Finals including 1 win and 1 loss against an MCG tenant. Thirdly Geelong has played just about every final in its history at the MCG. The only final theyve played at KP they lost. Didnt hear much complaining from Cats fans knowing they'd be playing Sydney at the G not KP in the semi final last year. Finally Richmond beat Adelaide at the AO in 2014 the first time there. So no, it hasnt always lost to the Crows there. Adelade's last visit to Melbourne against the Tigers pre GF was a win at ES in 2016.

2018-04-02T04:50:54+00:00

vocans

Guest


I am not arguing a 'huge' advantage, just one that can tell, all other things being relatively even. These days the comp is so much more even. That's why working for a 1% improvement is deemed worthwhile by all clubs. Let's say home at the G gives you 5% - nothing to sneeze at. All these stats! - where's Ryan when you need him?!

2018-04-01T00:23:35+00:00

Matto

Guest


Are you trying to argue with yourself?

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T14:29:49+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


Thanks Cat, happy to answer, but please elaborate, what statistics are you referring? I thought the stats in the article were pretty self explanatory. I'll add to this a few facts from last decade. - 6/10 premiership to MCG tenant teams. - 2/10 premiership to Cats - 1/10 premiership to Dockland teams. - 1/10 premiership to interstate. If the competition was not skewed, we would see far more interstate teams winning, and Docklands teams winning but we do not. Also Geelong have it super sweet. They get BOTH home ground advantage on the longest, and skinniest ground AND exposure to the MCG. This adds to their ability to consistently make then finals, AND then win it.

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T14:23:30+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


Worthy is only part of the equation as significant other factors slant the results. For instance; - The Lions play on a MCG equivalent size oval. This added to their ability to win at the MCG. - Geelong had and has the best of both worlds. The unique shape of the ground helps them make the final, the exposure to the MCG during the regular season helps them to win the GF. - Blighty's Crows were BEFORE Docklands. Princes Park was far closer to MCG dimensions than Docklands Stadium. Swapping Princes Park for Docklands was a big part of the problem.

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T14:06:03+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


Thanks Cat, but I don't agree with the framing of this statement. It creates a Loose - Loose situation for the interstate teams. And why should the onus be put on interstate teams? The other problem is if this logic were adopted, the competition would become overly Melbourne Centric. Plus Katherine makes an excellent point, MCG tenant teams are playing away from MCG, and this denies interstate team chance to become more familiar with MCG.

2018-03-31T13:57:22+00:00

anon

Roar Pro


Small sample size (for the mathematically illiterate)

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T13:52:30+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


Thanks for your comments, but there are few errors; 1. Yes, I really want to see the G remain the venue for the GF. My preference would be a best of three where finals are also taken interstate. The MCG would host game 2. But I suspect this would be unlikely to get up, so I didn't pursue this argument in the article. 2. I'm a Brisbane Lions supporter and we won three straight. ALL the interstate teams are disadvantaged. Noise is coming from all of the country mate. 3. Melbourne teams can certainly have two home grounds. The only other way to solve the problem is for the Docklands stadium to be as close as possible to a replica as the MCG as possible (excluding replicating crowd size). Now let me ask you a specific question, if the roles were reversed, and the Tiger's were Minor Premiers, would you be happy if another team then got three home finals at the expense of the Tigers? Of course you wouldn't. It would be ridiculous if you didn't speak out!

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T13:29:28+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


Thanks MattyB. The only problem is the stats. In the last 10 years, Docklands teams have the 1 flag to show for their efforts (Bulldogs), MCG tenant teams (Hawks, Tigers, Magpies) have won 6 flags. Those stats show Docklands teams are disadvantaged.

AUTHOR

2018-03-31T13:24:17+00:00

Anthony

Roar Pro


But therein lies the problem. The 2017 season proves that being Minor Premiers or Runner Up, does NOT give the most advantageous run at the GF. The Minor Premiership and Runner Up is trumped simply being an MCG tenant team. As Tigers in 2017 proved, simply being an MCG tenant team in top four, gives you the most advantageous run. So at the very least, Minor Premiers should be respected and honoured in a far more substantial way as a result. They should be compensated in advance for the MCG Tenant team bias against them they will likely face in the AFL finals series. Future regular seasons draws need a makeover. I would also throw a Docklands redevelopment into the mix which would see it of similar size to the MCG.

2018-03-31T11:51:25+00:00

Matto

Guest


Your version of "good enough" cat, is that if they can overcome obvious disadvantages they are good enough. Can you imagine if every super bowl was played in LA just because they have the biggest capacity stadium.... sounds silly doesn't it.

2018-03-31T11:10:58+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


So what you are saying is if a team is good enough they’ll win anyway. Yep that’s great evidence of the ‘huge’ advantage /eyeroll

2018-03-31T11:04:55+00:00

Vocans

Guest


Matto has some idea. Also, just because some teams can overcome the disadvantage does not mean it’s not there. The Lions were near invincible and the Cats not far off from them.

2018-03-31T06:49:29+00:00

Matto

Guest


The terrible fixture format like mentioned above. Small sample size would be another.

2018-03-31T06:26:45+00:00

BigAl

Guest


That is a very good point about interstate sides not getting to play on the MCG because tennants move their games.

2018-03-31T06:05:59+00:00

Katherine

Guest


SA and WA teams couldn't move games to the MCG even if they wanted to due to the contracts with their home venues. It's why Port Adelaide needed to find another team to play against them in China that was willing to give up a home game - they have to play 11 games at Adelaide Oval. Not sure if the QLD or NSW teams could though. As a supporter of a non-Victorian team, the most frustrating part is that even when we play away to a team whose home ground is the MCG we don't always play there. This year Port Adelaide is playing Hawthorn in Tassie. The Dockers and Crows play Melbourne in the NT. Meanwhile the non-MCG tenant teams like Essendon and Geelong play at least 7 games there each year.

2018-03-31T05:25:40+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


If it’s is such a huge difference maker why doesn’t it show in the GF results?

2018-03-31T05:23:58+00:00

Cat

Roar Guru


If interstate sides want more games at the MCG then they need to move a home game to the MCG ... but they won’t give that up.

2018-03-31T05:17:02+00:00

Mattyb

Guest


WrG,the big difference between Brisbane,Geelong compared to Richmond,Footscray is Brisbane and Geelong we actually very good sides,while Richmond and Footscry were good sides that needed an advantage.

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