Every season, Formula One buys into the promise of an inevitably disappointing driver silly season, but could Daniel Ricciardo deliver on the hype in 2018?
The Australian’s signature is among the most coveted not already committed, but choosing the best way forward for what will be the prime of his career is no easy task.
The criterion for his decision is simple.
“I definitely want to be with the best car,” he told Network Ten’s The Project, with the definition of “best car” being a title contender.
But is Red Bull Racing offering that car?
“It’s still too early to say, ‘yes’,” he said. “We need to win regularly to kind of show that.”
But time to analyse the team’s title credentials for 2018 – never mind 2019 – is running out, with a negotiation deadline reportedly looming within the next two months.
So what choices face the 28-year-old?
Option 1: Strick with the status quo
Staying the course with the team that brought Ricciardo to Formula One ensures the sort of continuity that can count for a lot in performance terms.
But concerning is what’s in the back of Red Bull Racing’s chassis: the Renault power unit has failed to instil competitive confidence since the dawn of the hybrid turbo era in 2014.
The team’s only alternative is Honda, and though the Japanese company is much improved this season, it remains stubbornly behind all three rivals in the power stakes, giving Ricciardo no real comfort that the team could compete for titles in 2019 if it proves incapable this season.
Max Verstappen presents further risk, with the once-in-a-generation talent told by RBR boss Christian Horner he can “build a team around him” when he signed a three-year deal last year.
If Ricciardo feels he’d be offered unequal terms in a new deal, whether stated or implied, an exit would be the only option.
Max Verstappen (Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool)
Option 2: Move to Maranello
Ricciardo was first linked to Ferrari when he was out of contract in 2015, but whispers were renewed in Bahrain with rumours of a pre-contract with the Italian team.
Kimi Raikkonen is out of contract at the end of the season, but with Ferrari protégé Charles Leclerc likely for a 2020 Scuderia switch, a one-year deal might be all Ricciardo would have to establish himself in Italy.
The Australian would back himself to beat Sebastian Vettel in a straight fight, just as he did when they were 2014 teammates, but is he prepared to hold his own in Ferrari’s infamously cut-throat political world in a do-or-die year to oust the incumbent number one?
Christian Horner alluded to the pitfalls in the Ferrari route when asked about ongoing negotiations with the Australian.
“If you look at Kimi’s race, I didn’t understand that strategy,” he said, referring to Ferrari sacrificing Raikkonen to benefit Vettel in the Chinese Grand Prix.
“I think Daniel’s happy in the environment. If we can give him a car like we did today, why would he want to be anywhere else?”
Kimi Raikkonen. (Photo: Ferrari Scuderia)
Option 3: Switch for a Silver Arrow
Valtteri Bottas was the stronger Mercedes driver in China, but this tends to be the case only when Lewis Hamilton is struggling – in other words, rarely.
The Finn’s 2017 points haul helped Mercedes to the constructors’ standings, but he was unable to beat Vettel to second in the drivers’ championship.
Out of contract at the end of the season, does Bottas meet Mercedes’ ‘the best or nothing’ credo?
A Hamilton-Ricciardo pairing would be the strongest on the grid. It would assure Mercedes some security in the event of the oft-rumoured Hamilton walk-out for a non-sporting career.
But would Mercedes commit to a big-money deal when it’s already invested heavily in Esteban Ocon’s career? The Frenchman has been getting only stronger at Force India, and it would be tempting for Mercedes to grant him his next step.
Image supplied by AMG Petronas Motorsport
Option 4: The Renault wildcard
A switch to Renault can’t be completely discounted, with the French manufacturer striding ever forward towards the front of the field, even if the gap to the frontrunners remains stubbornly large.
But if Red Bull Racing commits to Honda next year – Renault has set the team a May deadline to decide which engines it will use – making a straight switch with Red Bull-contracted Carlos Sainz for the only other works-team seat on the grid makes some level of sense as a long-term project.
Other permutations
One final variable is a Diario Gol report suggesting Fernando Alonso will leave McLaren at the end of the season.
Notwithstanding it’s not unusual for the Spanish press to play an active role in Alonso’s contract negotiations, such a move could prove a major disrupter in the market if Alonso were to find a seat elsewhere and if McLaren opted against the rapid promotion of young driver Lando Norris to fill the vacancy.
The choice won’t be easy for Australia’s sole F1 driver, but one gets the impression Ricciardo is embracing the opportunity to forge his own path in Formula One for the first time in his career.
“You look at Lewis and when he did his Mercedes deal, he was the same age if I remember correctly,” he told Inside Sport magazine earlier this year.
“He was already doing very well where he was, but his career has really taken off since then, hasn’t it?”
Just something to consider.
dan ced
Guest
He needs to leave Red Bull, they have backed in VER with a 3 year contract, and will bias him due to pre-existing investment (regardless of the fact that he's the new Maldonado). I'd like to see Dan at Ferrari, mainly because I was a huge Webber fan and feel he choose poorly not going to Ferrari. I've never been a Ferrari fan, but i feel they are currently the best race car, the pedigree is undeniable, and Red Bull can't get a competitive engine.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Anon, Danny Ric also had a lot of misfortune and unreliability in the second half of last season, hardly seemed to score a point at the back end of the year. Max has speed and can put a lap together for sure, but I would still put Ricciardo ahead of him at this point, why wouldn't he "put a target on his back" at this stage of his career? Not going to win a world title by cowering in the corner.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
Interesting on Grosjean, feel he is still in Ferrari sights. More likely to keep a seat than K-Mag in my view. But agree that Danny Ric is leaning towards Ferrari and probably rightly so.
steve
Guest
My head says Mercedes, my heart says Ferrari. He has only two genuine options if he wants to challenge for a world drivers title. RBR cant provide him with this option yet, so I would suggest they are very much a distant third in Daniel's thinking. I think he will take the Ferrari option on a two year deal, I reckon Daniel will get the assurances he is seeking from them. Which means Leclerc will have to wait at least an extra year to get there, maybe via a Haas drive in the interim? Got a feeling Grosjean wont be there after this season.
anon
Roar Pro
I think Ricciardo is getting a little ahead of himself. He got beat head-to-head with Verstappen in qualifying last year by 13-7. Ricciardo scored more points because Verstappen was inconsistent, but there was no doubt that the 19-year-old Verstappen had more raw speed than the veteran Ricciardo who is in his prime as a driver. Verstappen still managed two wins to Ricciardo's one. He's kind of putting a target on his back at the moment. Every failure is going to be amplified and the pressure will mount.
FrozenNorth
Guest
I don't see the confusion here, he has to go to Ferrari. RBR still don't have an engine and don't seem to have one on the horizon at all, they are not going to win a championship in this formulae. Mercedes cannot win forever, all runs come to an end. Plus Hamilton is a nightmare, the sulking he's going to do as soon as Dan looks competitive is insane, he's such a man-child. Vettel will be far tougher than 2014 where you have to feel he was just off his game a bit. But Dan has the Italian heritage, he has the personality to appease the italians and their fans, they have an engine, they have the money and the extra cash for being a Ferrari driver has got to appeal to Dan. Make it happen.
mark bp
Guest
all depends on ricardos results in the next few races.... and especially his performance against his team mate. better results... big money.... easier to get a good 2 year contract. average results ok money. less say in the new contract. options.... red bull look risky with renault... riskier with honda... we know both ferrai and mercedes will be competative. i reckon ferrarri is the best option as ricardo dominated sebastian vettel when he was still at red bull. ferrarri are not stupid they know that and they want to win the drivers title. they will want him...!
anon
Roar Pro
Vettel is number one at Ferrari because he's far superior to Raikkonen. How many poles and wins has Raikkonen had at Ferrari while alongside Vettel?
anon
Roar Pro
I think Mercedes would be wary to put a competitive driver alongside Hamilton given how toxic it became between him and Rosberg.
Fan
Guest
Excellent article, but I don't see how Vet would co-sign the acquisition of Ric who would want equal treatment. Rai is (reluctantly) is the perfect teammate for Vet, playing number two driver and the strategies at Ferrari optimised for Vet. Rai being used as a blocker for Bot last week in China is the kind of thing Ric wouldn't want to sign for. Merc is his best option, they have no number one driver status though Ham is the superior driver. The optimum strategy goes to the driver leading the race.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
No question on Leclerc vs Ocon, but Esteban is more experienced anyway, so that's not a surprise. Charles might've had the chance to make a direct switch after one season, but his first three races suggest he needs to time to make rookie errors, meaning he won't get to the Scuderia until 2020 at the earliest, I'd have thought.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
The trouble is that he and the teams may not have time to assess the entirety of the season before making a decision — moves will surely be made before that. I see what you mean about driving without expectations, but I think having Verstappen in the other car is creating enough pressure on Ricciardo to be a test of how he performs when it matters. I wonder how much say Vettel and Hamilton have on who sits in the other car. Vettel didn't have a veto clause or any such thing, as far as I understand, in his first Ferrari contract at very least. Mercedes, similarly, seem to like the idea of having two strong drivers so long as they don't become political. Ricciardo would meet that test, I think.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I don't think Mercedes, at least, would hire him as a number two — dropping Bottas would suggest as much. Ferrari is maybe another question. There's no doubt Raikkonen has been cast as the team's second driver, but surely Ricciardo would want assurances of equal treatment before he made a switch. Red Bull Racing, so far as I know, continue offering both drivers equal resources to compete. I don't think that'll change if they're challenging for a title. We know they like Verstappen's headline-grabbing nature, but Ricciardo is a product of the driver programme, so there's already an investment in his success.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Thanks, mate. Hard to say at the moment! That talk of a Ferrari pre-contract is interesting (even if it's far from solid), but sticking with RBR would offer him the least career risk in the sense that he could get a long-term contract with favourable exit clauses if he were worried about the engine situation.
Dexter The Hamster
Guest
I think the Tifosi want to see him in red, and the pre-contract we are hearing about kind of suggests his preference at this point. I also think Ocon is a lot closer to a Merc seat than Leclerc is to a Ferrari seat. Anyway, time will tell.
Rellum
Roar Guru
I think he maybe might go to Ferrari for some reason. They are speeding up, he blew away Vettel last time they were team mates even with Vettel being the team's main focus so I think he might back himself in a red car.
anon
Roar Pro
Let's see how this year plays out because we're only three races in. Verstappen still has a pace advantage over Ricciardo. It's one thing driving spectacularly when there are no expectations. He's starting to create expectations within his team and from Ferrari and Mercedes by constantly puffing his chest out saying he'll win a championship with a competitive car. I really can't see Vettel or Hamilton allowing the second seat at their respective teams be filled with Ricciardo.
Damo
Guest
Very good analysis. The problem is that Dan is now in the position (and rightly so after in my opinion) to be the leading driver of a championship team. However he currently won't get that at Ferrari or Mercedes and Red Bull continue to throw their support behind Verstappen, who may be quick but isn't near a complete driver like Dan is. So does Dan go to Ferr or Merc as number 2 and risk the treatment like we've seen given to Kimi or stay at Red Bull and jsut bank on out driving Verst? I'd love to see him make a title bid at one of the other teams but they just don't have the cars or resources to compete.
freddieeffer
Guest
Michael, as usual, great analysis and article. Right now, which option appears to be most likely?