At this time of the NRL season almost every on-field action is viewed through a State of Origin prism.
The rugby league world is awash with speculation about Origin hopefuls playing themselves in or out of contention for a blue or maroon jersey.
While it’s all good for content, I would expect that with a fortnight until squads are announced, New South Wales and Queensland’s respective coaches Brad Fittler and Kevin Walters have decided on 90 per cent of their squad and are now just thinking about combinations and utility value from a player on the fringes of selection.
Among all the speculation, it was pretty much accepted that Penrith’s halves duo of James Maloney and Nathan Cleary would line up at the six and seven for the Blues.
Until this week, that is. New South Wales ‘adviser’ Greg Alexander casually detonated a hydrogen-strength selection bomb, bringing to light Fittler’s concerns with Maloney’s defence.
It was a completely unexpected entry into the news cycle and Maloney should rightly feel a little bemused about it all, to put it lightly.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
Alexander’s and then Fittler’s subsequent comments during the week are clearly being done to prepare Blues fans for the reality that Fittler’s squad will include Parramatta halfback Mitchell Moses.
The reaction from New South Wales supporters has been visceral. They don’t want Moses, who they see as a turnstile in defence and a poor decision-maker in attack.
Is the hate justified, though? Is Moses such a liability? Is selecting him a ‘classic New South Wales move’ as it has been described?
I’ll admit that until Fittler and Alexander started talking Moses up I hadn’t thought he was a chance. But when you think about it, it starts to make some sense.
Let’s take a look at the numbers (according to the NRL).
Maloney has missed 75 tackles in 11 games this season. In last year’s Origin series he missed 18 tackles across the three games.
Queensland (and everyone else, for that matter) know to send their traffic his way because you’ve got a better than average chance of getting through.
Maloney’s defence tightened up against the Tigers on Thursday night, but for Fittler that could be too little, too late.
Now I can hear you all screaming at me, and I know – Moses misses tackles too. He’s fourth in the NRL with 47 airgrabs.
It might shock a few to discover that statistically, there’s not much difference between Moses and Maloney in attack (Maloney has seven try assists and five line break assists, Moses has six and four). The numbers are also pretty similar for errors and penalties (Maloney seven and 13, Moses eight and ten).
But Fittler has a more important reason to favour Moses over Maloney. And it goes well beyond statistics.
Maloney is 31 years old, a veteran attached to New South Wales’ darkest period in Origin history. Fair or unfair, that’s the way it is.
Moses is 23. Try to set aside the Twitter hate, the Facebook memes and all that noise. Don’t be sidetracked by the dramatics from his move from the Tigers to the Eels or be distracted by the sideline microphone potty mouth – he’s a seriously good player.
After Moses got across to Parramatta in 2017 he was a key figure in the Eels’ charge to the top four.
He backed that up with an electrifying world cup campaign, dragging Lebanon to a quarter-final and a heartbreaking loss to Tonga, a team a lot of people thought could challenge for the title.
Mitchell Moses of the Eels (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
As coach of the Cedars, Fittler saw how Moses operates up close in a leadership role, and he most definitely liked what he saw.
Parramatta’s woeful 2018 is being used as a reason not to pick Moses, and I couldn’t disagree more with this argument.
When you surround a player of Moses’ talent with other young guns overseen by a coach who’s willing to give them their head, anything can happen.
This week gave the distinct impression Fittler is shaping the Blues to suit Moses in the halves, letting him display a game Fittler says is ‘designed for Origin’.
Handing Moses a blue jersey will drive New South Wales fans wild and will make Queenslanders lean back smugly. The rugby league world will paint massive targets on both Moses and Fittler and leave them zero room for error.
Like we tend to do in league, the smallest error will be turned into the end of civilisation as we know it.
But remember this: New South Wales’ elder statesmen, administrators, coaches and mystical ‘advisers’ have been telling anyone who’ll listen that the team is starting from scratch to rebuild their foundations for sustained Origin success.
So New South Wales supporters may not feel it right now, but you should be excited by what Moses would bring. It’s a new start for the Blues and it can set your state up for a long time.
I’ve said it before that this is the best collection of young talent for New South Wales in a generation.
With Fittler and Moses’ understanding and the halfback’s undoubted talent, there’s a real chance that Moses alongside Cleary could be the start of something good.
RyanC
Guest
If Moses is picked after we have been sold on a new coach picking in form players - there are a lot of NSW supporters that will cheer for QLD. What a terrible news article
Al
Guest
Wait, what? You have Moses in your team but not Maloney because of his defense? ....... am I missing something here?
Al
Guest
Spot on..... and for his manager to pull the depression and player welfare card was disgusting.... play him for NSW and I’ll barrack for the enemy.
Charles NSW
Guest
I chose Mitchell Moses in my team after his Lebanon rep game where he showed what we need for NSW SOO. Maloney is good in attack but not in defence where QLD will rip him apart, also Roberts and Mitchell in the centres. I like the way Fittler is with his approach as he is already taking a fresh outlook to what is needed. We need to appreciate him and not burden him with negative comments as some always do no matter what.
Joey
Guest
Wow that was a long story
Rick
Guest
Imagine the conversation if he doesn't get selected: 'But my uncle told me I was in'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paul
Guest
Moses has five years of average performances at NRL level to rule him out AJ.
Quite Lucrative
Guest
NSW MUST get away from picking blokes from the bottom sides. How about picking the winners for a change and stop trying to outsmart the statistics. No Klemmer No Moses No Moylan No Dugan Think twice about Cordner. Cleary and Maloney are no brainers. Peachey is in rare form
Birdy
Guest
Eagle Jack and The Barry. Do you think Mitchell Pearce was thrown in too soon and had a negative effect on his rep career? Reading your comments , it must be close to the truth. Also watching my tigers, their lack of points came through again, very depressing to watch. Has to change if they are to threaten the 8. The big bright light for me was Cleary. First match back and had a blinder. Must be Cleary and Maloney in blue.
Two shades
Guest
What a bitter comment! And what’s a petulant flag?
Bplol
Guest
I agree. That the fans and media will shred them and freddie if it went that. And because of that i agree with bringing them in a few at the time. I also think alot id the players mentioned above could do the job now. Aitken and walker i rate but teddy i don't. I just cant put my finger on why. Dufty also looks good but needs to perform for the whole season But I'd love to see it and imagine if they won.
Jeffrey Lebowski
Guest
I can’t believe people are falling for the Moses is in trick. It’s a psychological ploy and it has Phil Gould written all over it. When has Maloney always played his best footy? Right after he’s been doubted and flicked, only for the coach to realise in his absence he wasn’t the player he should of let go. When Maloney is underestimated you can bank he will be in sublime form. It also boosted Moses confidence for his eventual inclusion. FYI I can’t see why people think Moses would be a bad pick. He was one of the 3 best at the World Cup and lead a weak side further than anyone honestly imagined. However he was one of few NRL players in that side and therefor had rank. I wonder how he would go leading around a team of bigger stars than himself?
The Barry
Roar Guru
In your defence AJ I think there’s a few people who miss the point about the use of stats to support a position. I agree stats don’t tell the full story but without something objective to support the conversation becomes: “I reckon Moses is better” “Yeah nah rubbish, Maloney’s better”
The Barry
Roar Guru
But a ‘feeling’ is all it can be with Moses. Objectively there’s plenty of things about his game pointing to him not being ready.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Agreed eJ. Picking Origin sides for the future just doesn’t work. The best way to pick a side for the future is to pick a side that will win this year. Picking players because they’ll be good in three years is pointless because after three losing series they won’t be there. Moses is as far from an Origin player as you can get at the moment. He’s got talent and perhaps he’ll get consistency in the next couple of years and be ready. But the surest way to butcher his rep career would be to pick him now, especially in a team full of rookies.
Big Daddy
Guest
I met wayne( true story ) and he converted me.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Fittler has been around long enough and knows how to play the game. He learnt off the best (Gould). He is playing the media. I'm sure he knows who he is picking, and names like Mitchell Moses are no where near his list. Just throw out a player he has a connection to and the media lap it up. Yeh, Fittler is really going to pick Moses and Radley
Hughster
Guest
I'd have no issue with a Cleary / Maloney combo but would also throw Blake green in the mix. Mature player, good game management skills, does simple things well. Experienced in structured teams and more ad hoc teams. Plays what's in front of him. Has combo with turbo and jurbo. A solid player who would be a good foil if we go with an exciting but inexperienced 3/4 line that may include some of fox, turbo, teddy, cotric, latrell, Roberts, aitken et al.
arthur rightus
Guest
Wild conspiracy theory I know but anybody else think maybe Gould, Fittler and Alexander, all with strong Penrith connections might be doing their best to make sure the Panthers don't lose BOTH their halves during the origin period?
AJ Mithen
Expert
Fair enough!