UFC 225: Breakdown and predictions

This weekend, Australian MMA fans are gifted a UFC card, packed not only with great fights, but packed with Australians too.

Three of the five main-card fights feature Australian competitors, including the main event between middleweight champion Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero.

Here is my breakdown of the main card.

Mike Jackson versus Phil “CM Punk” Brooks
So we start the night with a joke. CM Punk (0-1) faces off against Mike Jackson (0-1). To be frank, this fight has no business being in the UFC, let alone the main-card of one of the best events of the year. Nevertheless, money is god, and the UFC has to prove its $4 billion worth.

What can I say about this fight? Jackson seems to have some amateur striking experience having done a bit of boxing. He has one amateur MMA fight, which he lost, to go with his pro loss to Micky Gall – the same man who smashed CM Punk.

Punk has little to no experience of any kind, but his very well respected coach Duke Roufus claims that Punk will be “200 per cent better” than his last match. What this means, if anything, we shall see.

I truly hope this fight stays standing, as it will be much more interesting for the fans. It will certainly be Jackson’s preference. However, I fear Punk will shoot for a takedown fairly quickly and attempt to employ his newly learnt BJJ skills.

With this tactic, he may actually have a chance. Jackson seems to have negligible experience in grappling.

Jackson is the favourite in this fight, and rightly so. But I am going to go against the odds and say CM Punk gets it done by submission. But really, who cares.

Andrei Arlovski versus Tai Tuivasa
The second fight of the main card is one I am extremely excited about. Australian Tai Tuivasa (7-0), the first UFC fighter of Indigenous background, against former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (27-15, 1 NC).

With seven first-round knockouts from seven fights, the former Sydney Rooster signing is about as exciting as it gets in the heavyweight division.

However, in Arlovski, Tuivasa faces the toughest challenge of his short career.

I do not know how, but Arlovski has again bounced back from the brink of his career to win his last two fights, including an impressive (if underwhelming) win against seven-foot giant Stephan Struve.

A well-rounded fighter with a kickboxing and sambo background, I expect Arlovski to come out and use his experience to judge distance. He might try to pick up rounds, perhaps throwing in the odd takedown attempt for points.

However, I just do not see how he gets it done. As a striker, Arlovski has been given a horrible matchup with young Tai, who will come out fast and look to connect with punches immediately.

Given his recent record against power hitters, Arlovski will struggle with the pace and power of Tuivasa.

If he can stretch it past the first round, Arlovski has a chance, but I am tipping another first-round knockout for the young Australian.

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Holly Holm versus Megan Anderson
In the third fight of the card, we see Australian and former Invicta Featherweight champion Megan Anderson (8-2) take on one of the most well-known women in MMA, Holly Holm (11-4).

Many are rightfully seeing this as a number one contender’s match for the UFC’s skint women’s featherweight division, with the winner likely to face champion Cris Cyborg.

Cyborg has two fights left in the UFC. With her last fight almost guaranteed to be a super-fight with bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, Anderson is looking at a fantastic opportunity for a quick title shot.

She is a Muay Thai style fighter who has ended her last four matches with a knockout.

However, in striking terms, she will likely be at a slight disadvantage against Holm, who is a prodigiously talented boxer and kick-boxer.

This fact has led the betting odds to favour Holm in this fight.

However, a significant factor will be Anderson’s size. At almost 183 cm (6 foot), Anderson is a full ten centimetres taller than her 173 cm (5 foot 8 inch) opponent.

This size advantage will allow Anderson to impose herself on Holly and use her Thai boxing on the inside, safe from Holm’s deadly kicks.

This, combined with Holm’s poor recent record (only having won one of her last four fights) and a little Australian parochialism, has me tipping Anderson to get the upset by decision.
Rafael Dos Anjos versus Colby Covington (bold)

The co-main event of the evening sees MMA’s most hated man, Colby Covington (13-1) fighting for the UFC interim welterweight championship against former UFC lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (28-9).

Every person and their dog will be hoping for Covington to get his face smushed by RDA. Whether you are Brazilian, who he called “filthy animals”, a Joe Rogan fan, who he has threatened to slap in the octagon, a movie fan, who he aggravated by spoiling the most recent Star Wars and Avengers movies on twitter, or just a fan of common human decency – the hoards will be baying for Covington’s blood.

And unfortunately that is his genius. He has become the UFC’s ultimate ‘heel’, with an almost Mayweather-esque ability to make people want to see him lose.

The result is that we now have a serial pest whose transparent antics have resulted in a frankly undeserved title shot.

Nevertheless, he has an incredibly hard task in front of him with RDA. A chain wrestler with good cardio, Covington likes to wear down his opponents and is no stranger to a decision (six out of 13 wins).

This style will be tough against the well rounded RDA, whose grappling and takedown defence are outstanding, but who also has the far superior striking. By stopping takedowns and effective striking, RDA gets it done by decision.

Robert Whittaker versus Yoel Romero
The main event sees Australian welterweight champion Robert Whittaker (19-4) take on the former Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, Yoel Romero (13-2). I cannot remember being more nervous for a UFC bought.

Logically, you would think Whittaker gets it done.

He is the much younger man (27 versus 41), he has a very strong take-down defence to negate Romero’s wrestling, he has excellent ‘blitz’ style striking, and most importantly – he has beaten Romero before… with one leg.

However, Yoel is one of the most explosive and dangerous welterweights to ever grace the octagon.

Surprisingly for a wrestler, Romero is famous for sudden, lightning-quick bursts of activity, particularly flying knees and striking blitzes.

However, when that fails, he falls back on his takedowns and ground-and-pound to finish a fight or score points.

There are a couple of interesting takeaways from their last fight:

First, was Romero’s cardio which was not up to scratch. After ten minutes of dominance, the Cuban was left exhausted and Whittaker was able to win the final three rounds without too much difficulty, despite a busted knee.

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Secondly, was Whittaker’s takedown defence. With only one leg, he was able to defend all but three of Romero’s takedowns – a remarkable feat.

How Yoel deals with and learns from these problems will be interesting to see.

In the fight, expect to see Whittaker employ strong front kicks to Romero’s body in order to stop takedown attempts before they start, as well a jumping left hook in the blitz which will trouble the southpaw Romero.

Romero, meanwhile, will look to pace himself better this fight, probably relying more on shoot-boxing for the first two rounds, rather than exhausting himself on failed takedown attempts.

I am too nervous to call a winner on this fight, but I will just say that the odds are with Whittaker, and I sure hope he wins.

Hopefully, it makes up for the beating Jeff Horn is likely to take from Terrence Crawford.