Despite beginning with two of the worst opening quarters in South African rugby history (and allowing a disgracefully soft try at the end of the first Test at Ellis Park), the Springboks rebounded.
They saw off Eddie Jones’ bid to be the first England coach to win a series in the Republic, doing so with a game to spare.
Much of what has been written about these two victories understandably focuses on a new spirit in the team. Fighting back from 3-24 and 0-12 does take real belief. There’s also talk of the transformed attack, team selection and captaincy, and the speed on attack developed by the new combination of Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard (who kicked only five times in almost 160 minutes of rugby, which must be a record low for a Bok flyhalf).
Secondary narratives have been about altitude, the failed experiment of parachuting Brad Shields into a struggling side and expecting anything more than a Chris Robshaw with a better beard, and the quick fade of England’s fortunes. Eddie Jones had billed this series a “World Cup semi-final dress-rehearsal,” but now says it’s a “horror movie.”
What do the numbers say? How terrifying was it, for the English coaches, to look the metrics from the two losing Tests?
Eddie Jones and England have begun to splutter (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara, File)
1. Too many points conceded, from simple momentum
England scored 25.5 points a game, which can be enough in many Tests to win. Both sides carried the ball more than usual, and England did not throw many speculative passes, but the Boks were about ten per cent more effective at crossing the gainline, with big carriers running hard lines.
South Africa made 6.45 m per carry, compared to England’s 5.22 m per carry, and much of that significant advantage came from 9 tackle busts by big Boks to only one by England (a back, scoring an early try). Add in a 14-4 offload advantage by the Boks, and you can see a tale of the tide, which is hard to stem on the High Veld.
Run a lot, run hard, break tackles, find key offloads, and if you doing that in the right areas, you usually score in multiples of three, five, or seven.
2. England was tackled back; South Africa was merely tackled
Tracking ‘dominant’ tackles is an excellent way to quantify the contact area, if tackles are not being missed from over-eagerness to put the big hit in.
Both sides tackled at a high completion rate in Johannesburg and Bloemfontein: 93.5 per cent for the Boks, and 93 per cent for England. But the dominant tackle score was 18-2 for South Africa, with many of those crunching hits made by Bok front-rowers and back-rowers. That’s a tough way for a touring team to live in South Africa.
Not surprising, turnovers resulted from big tackles (rucks were secure on both sides: England kept 99 per cent of theirs and South Africa 96 per cent), and English attacks were stymied. Not to mention, England was physically hurt.
England’s Dylan Hartley looks up at the TMO verdict (Photo by Ashley Western – MB Media via Getty Images)
3. English line speed was non-existent
The good news was England was never pinged for being offside (the Boks were, five times). The bad news is the referees never even had to wonder if England was offside. This meant that Handre Pollard took the ball flat, whipped hard and long passes to runners, and Willie le Roux had time to invent blindside channels or just ghost a few tries for himself or the fast young wings. Sometimes, no penalties can be a bad thing.
4. Wasted kicks
England kicked longer than South Africa (32.4 m per kick versus 23.4 m), but very few were contested. This was also the case on restarts. The Boks won the ball back from de Klerk’s box kicks or counter-rucked the marooned catcher or put in the big hit.
England just gave the ball to Duane Vermeulen or le Roux to counter with. Pollard and le Roux created counters, instead of playing kick-tennis; le Roux kicked only three times in two Tests. The Boks used the box; England went too long.
5. Second half scrums were the real horror movie
England gave up a scrum penalty try and it could have been two. Steven Kitshoff and his benchmates gave the visitors a torrid examination at scrum time, winning penalties at will, and creating a lovely platform for the young Bok backline.
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6. Dropping the ball
England dropped the ball on 9-10 per cent of their carries, depending on the stat reports you see, in perfect conditions.
South Africa’s sloppy centre Damian de Allende almost matched that by himself, even as he ran hard and well. But overall, English butterfingers stopped their momentum, and gave the Boks scrums (exactly what Jones did not want in the second half) and hunger for more big hits.
Combined with the penalty edge, this contributed greatly to the 52.5 per cent territory and possession advantage for the home side.
England can fix several of these areas, with personnel or instruction. Being tackled into oblivion is more difficult to stop, because the Boks can’t wait to do it again!
The two questions for England now are: are they listening to their coach any more, and is he talking about the right things?
CJ
Guest
The Bok's are coming good at home. As they should. Can they sustain their form away?
Giles
Guest
With too many locks to choose from.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Well Am is not selected, Esterhuizen has been with Kriel. Let's see how they go. Downside is that Jantjies hs been selected as run on No 10 (Pollard on the bench though). Read an article on Elton Jantjies a day or so back ... they guy must have an inflated ego of himself and his ability, suggesting it was 'all about him' ... but I think Rassie has had a word with him, to tell him some home truths as he is now thinking team first... what an admission...
bluesfan
Guest
Suzy, I view the current English side as a much injured/tired side starting to fall apart under Eddie Jones and this coaching methods. I have respect for Australia because they have a high number of WC players in key positions (though with some glaring weaknesses in-some positions). It's good to be confident about the Brisbane test - but remember Australia on their day can beat anyone especially at home, as we saw in Brisbane last year vs. AB's. They don't have a great pack of forwards - but with Pocock and Hoooper, Coleman they have 3 WC individuals in their 8 and the rest are not to bad either - so whilst SA have a great pack of forwards especially with Marx and others to return (Marx/Bismarck combo could be huge) - I wouldn't disrespect an Oz forward pack who whilst are often maligned - on their game can beat anyone.
bluesfan
Guest
Suzy, I understand that Kolisi will help transform SA. However from a rugby standpoint - it's 15 vs. 15 and players from other countries are just as motivated to win as any SA - so I get that his gaining the captaincy is transformative for SA and that's massive - but I question if it will effect change on a rugby field and again I think Stormers is a good example.
RobC
Roar Guru
Chelow kebab - EJ and Check will be more or less the same this weekend - Rassie needs to pick faster players across the board if he wants a Tokyo medal
Suzy Poison
Guest
Blues fan, the Stormers comment is a rugby comment and it's fair. But Siya's appointment is a lot bigger than rugby, and that means only a Saffa can understand the significance. Look Australia had George Gregan as a captain and before that Mark Ella and no one even noticed that they were black and that's how it should be. But South Africa is different. It's a big big deal. https://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/junior-boks-never-believed-there-would-be-a-black-captain-20180618 It's hard to understand unless, you are a Saffa, the significance, of what has happened. This more than anything gives us Saffas hope and unites our nation. I can see the joy and vibe of the team, and I don't care about a few missed tackles.
Harry Jones
Expert
That’s generally my view. Rassie knows what’s he’s trying to achieve. Just finding combos. But Serfontein is definitely in his plans. DdeA isn’t setting the world on fire!
Harry Jones
Expert
He’s pretty hard to bring down! But did you see the step he made?
Harry Jones
Expert
Rob du Preez at 15 over Willie and Gelant? Won’t happen, mate.
Harry Jones
Expert
Donar kebab - Brown is the new white - DdeA needs to work on speed!!
Harry Jones
Expert
Injured ... again. Needs to really get fit.
Harry Jones
Expert
Kriel is more seasoned. But Rassie is trying to develop Am. I think that’s a good idea. If Esterhuizen plays with Am, it’d be an actual combo. Serfontein with Kriel.
Suzy Poison
Guest
So those 68minutes of holding England scoreless count for nothing, even if they have players like this in their team. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUHuQe0tRNM If Australia are so much better than England, how come they have so little success against England? Bluesfan, you are cherry picking the first 12minutes as the basis of your team evaluation. Well let's see about Brisbane. I highly doubt the Wallabies will get close to parity in the forwards and the Bok backline is not weak as you think. It will be close game. I personally think the Boks will edge it. But without a doubt, there is no way the Wallabies will run riot, as you predict. You are seriously underrating this side's character. Even if the Wallabies win by a point, the Boks will win by 10-15 in South Africa, that's pretty much a trend, over the years, with much weaker line-ups.
I think people are getting a bit too xcited about the Boks, yes we can see Rassie is making a positive impact, but it is way too soon to talk them up.
bluesfan
Guest
Suzy, I'm happy that SA have improved - however the defence on the outside is poor - someone like Folau will run riot if it is not fixed. It's great that Kolisi is captain - however all I can say is that he is also Captain of the Stormers and they are not exactly setting the house on fire - so why are the Stormers dire under his leadership and yet somehow he is going to transform Springboks?
felix
Guest
I think I like an angry Thor much better,look at how great he play when steam is comin out he's ears! ;-D
Fionn
Guest
It wasn't actually that far off Ireland's first team, and it wasn't a consolation try in the second test as the Wallabies were hot on attack and almost stole it at the death. Answer me this, if there was another 5 minutes would you seriously not have expected Australia to win it? Ireland were the better team and deserved the win, but Australia almost won despite literally the worst injury that could happen (to Genia). I fully expect South Africa to overtake Australia by the end of the year though. I'm very happy for the Boks as to how they're trending.
bluesfan
Guest
Suzy, In regards your statement: "Do you agree these young Bok debutants are improving in defence, as they get more game time? That’s the gist of it, if you can’t except that, we will never agree." Answer: No - England ran in 2 effortless tries in the first 10 minutes and then fell apart. Think about those two tries - did England have to build up to put them into a position to score? Answer was no - they were basic tries off first phase possession. Remember this is an English side who are not exactly recognised for the ability to put tries on the board easily. In regards your next point, yes the player you mentioned will strengthen SA - however apart from Steyn they are forwards and will be defending in close. You issue on defence is around the back three so don't think your point is really relevant re: backline defence. In short feel free to call Brisbane - but if the Wallabies can hold SA in the forwards - per current results, they will run riot on the outsides .
Suzy Poison
Guest
Also I don't see Australia as the big improvers (Sorry Oz) at all. Ok so they looked good in the first test against, what we now know was an Ireland B team. Against the real Ireland team, in the second test, Oz were well beaten. The 78 minute consolation try had the effect of making the scoreline flatter Australia. I can't see the Wallabies coming close in the third test in Sydney, either. Ok so I am biased but I think Rassie has done a great job, of forging team spirit with a bunch of newbies with little of no combinations, against much more experienced England team. (Even if England is in decline) For me, if anything, South Africa has shown the most improvement. Especially the last 68 minutes of holding England scoreless. By contrast the last 68 minutes of Wallaby play doesn't make as good viewing. The Beale's and Folau's might be brilliant with the ball in hand, but when you add all those Boks coming back like Etzebeth, Marx, Bismark and Whiteley etc, they possibly might not see too much ball. Lastly and I have touched on this before. Why is this year, any different to last year? It's because this year, the Boks have Siya as captain. Whilst the politics of Saffa rugby are hard to understand fro Aussies and Kiwi's. Siya as captain is having a huge impact in the local support for the game. This impact cannot be understated in the mindset and confidence of the players. That is why they are able to come back from being down early. There is a renewed confidence in the team and celebration of rugby that is bigger than the results.