Port Adelaide vs Melbourne: Friday Night Forecast

We’ve got another good one. The past two weeks haven’t quite delivered on quality, but at least we’ve had good footy teams in the weekend’s feature slot.

Both Port Adelaide and Melbourne come into tonight’s game with 8-4 records, which is nothing to sneeze at, and yet neither would be entirely satisfied with their season to date.

Port secured an important win against the Tigers a fortnight ago, though it wasn’t enough to shake concerns about their ability to mix it with the best teams.

There’s no shame in that, if they’re the sixth-best team in it, so be it. But that’s not what the Power were shooting for when they added Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop and the since-dropped Jack Watts to a 14-win team in the off-season.

Melbourne, likewise, have failed to deliver on the big stages this season. The Dees dropped a three-point heartbreaker in Round 1 to the Cats, but have also been humiliated by the Hawks and suffered seven-goal losses to both Richmond and Collingwood.

The rising Demons learnt the hard way in 2017 not to leave securing a finals berth too late, these are the kind of games they need to win to avoid it going down to the wire again in a season where it might take 14 wins to qualify for September.

Melbourne are 2018’s highest-scoring team at 106 points a game. Part of that is due to the dangerous players in their forward half – Jesse Hogan, Tom McDonald and Jake Melksham the best of them – and part of it is due to their bold ball movement.

The returning Tom Jonas will need to be right on his game in the back half for Port Adelaide – he’s one of their most important players.

The Demons are at their best when they can use their hands to find a player with the time and clean air to kick long and at angles to open the ground up.

It all starts with their work on the ground and in close though. Melbourne have the second-lowest kick-to-handball ratio in the AFL at 1.16 (Collingwood are 1.14) and are the No.1 contested possession team in the competition by a mile at plus-18.3 a game (Collingwood are No.2 at +7.5).

You need only look at their onballers to see why. Clayton Oliver is no longer one of the best young players in the league, he’s simply one of the best players in the league.

Jack Viney is as uncompromising as they come, Nathan Jones is somehow underrated and Angus Brayshaw is having a breakout year.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Christian Petracca has stagnated this season, but remains capable of just about anything at any moment.

Of course, the Power won’t flinch in that area. Robbie Gray is a superstar whether in the middle or the forward half and Chad Wingard is only a half notch behind him in both areas.

Ollie Wines and Sam Powell-Pepper are ruthless bulls, Tom Rockliff and Brad Ebert, too, are tough as nails. It shapes as an outstanding battle between the midfields.

Not to be forgotten are the All-Australian ruckmen of the past two seasons: Max Gawn and Paddy Ryder.

Strangely, for all of Gawn’s impact as well as the aforementioned midfield brigade, the Demons have been a so-so clearance team this year in terms of win-loss, ranked 13th for differential.

They have, however, been the highest scoring team in league from stoppages at better than six goals a game. When they win the ball from a stoppage, they are capable of punishing teams.

Winning clearances is not a problem for the the Power, who are No.3 for clearance differential. They’ll want to not only get first hands on the footy tonight, but be clean from there or Melbourne will be all over them and punish them with their sharp hands.

Jared Polec will be a crucial player for Port. His ability to break the lines and cut teams up with his kicking makes him one of the best wingers in the competition – he kicked a couple of brilliant goals against the Bulldogs last week.

For all of Melbourne’s attacking firepower, they have been opened up by good sides. Collingwood put 20 goals and 133 points on them on Queen’s Birthday, the Hawks managed 115 points and the Tigers 102. Every time the Demons have conceded 100 points, they’ve lost – the Cats weren’t far off with their 97 either.

With Jake Lever out and Tom McDonald forward, the Dees are vulnerable in the air in defence, particularly if the ball goes in quickly.

Charlie Dixon kicked multiple goals for the first time this season last week. Granted, it was against the lousy Bulldogs, but it might be just the confidence booster he needed. Dixon is a gamebreaker on his day and will cause Melbourne’s defenders plenty of grief if his teammates give him a chance.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Justin Westhoff is more of a roaming half-forward than a deep brute, but he’s bagged five goals in the past fortnight and will demand plenty of attention.

Oscar McDonald and Joel Smith will need a lot of help from their fellow defenders and, more importantly, the players up the ground.

You have to go back to 2010 for the last time a team finish top-four with fewer than 60 points – 15 wins or, in the case of the 2017 Giants, 14 wins and two draws – so a fifth loss for either of these teams tonight would make it extremely difficult for them to secure the double chance.

The stakes are high and I expect both sides to play like it. I’m tipping Melbourne by a goal in one of the games of the season.

That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?