Nine hot takes from AFL Round 19

If – as many of us expect they will – the Richmond Tigers successfully salute and claim back-to-back flags in 2018, Damien Hardwick should give some thought to pulling a Luke Beveridge and inviting high-performance manager Peter Burge up on stage for the cup presentation.

In a season that has been shaped by big injuries to key players at the worst times, it would be fitting to recognise the excellence of whoever it is at Richmond that has ensured they are regularly able to put a fit team on the park.

Now before you jump down my throat, yes, Richmond have had injuries of their own to contend with this year. Dion Prestia has played just nine of a possible 18 games, Bachar Houli only ten. Dan Butler and Jack Graham are on the sidelines right now, and Reece Conca just can’t get any luck.

And let’s give the Tigers some credit: we’re seeing again that they are canny recruiters, as relatively unheralded players have stepped up to fill those roles with aplomb.

Jayden Short is pushing elite if he’s not there already, and the charismatic, creative, colourful Jack Higgins is the envy of the league.

(And yes, it was a goal.)

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

So don’t for a second think that I’m saying here that a Richmond flag would be undeserved.

They’ve been the best team over the length of the year and attained the kind of aura that great teams often do where it doesn’t matter what your name is, if you wear Richmond colours and play the Richmond way, you’ll get the job done.

However there’s surely no debating that they’ve been perhaps just a little fortunate to so far get a combined 70 games out of a maximum of 72 from their ‘big four’ of Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin in a season where other sides have seen their structures crumble around them through injury time and time again.

There’s no better example than the plight of Collingwood, who as if their injury list was not long enough already, copped a fresh batch of bad news this weekend, most of it coming mid-game.

Jeremy Howe went down early with a concussion and the man he was playing on, Riewoldt, went on to kick three goals in a game the Pies lost by less than five.

Brodie Mihocek – a player the Pies already had turned to out of injury desperation – injured his ankle (athough he played out the game), but the most devastating blow was to another key pillar of the Magpie defence, Matthew Scharenberg.

Howe will hopefully be ready to return for the Pies either next week or the week after, but there are fears that Scharenberg has injured his ACL for what would be the third time in his career.

Then on Sunday the footy gods added insult (and also more injury) to injury, striking down Jamie Elliott in the Magpies’ VFL match against North Melbourne.

All this in the space of 24 hours for a team that is already missing Jordan de Goey, Adam Treloar, Daniel Wells, Ben Reid, Lynden Dunn and Tyson Goldsack. Collingwood fans have the right to feel a little cheated by fate.

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Sunday also saw the West Coast Eagles drop a game they would’ve expected to win at Blundstone Arena against North Melbourne after they were hit with two crucial late withdrawals.

Josh J Kennedy was forced to miss the match due to ‘soreness’, having returned from a hairline fracture in his leg just two weeks ago.

The news is a little kinder for Luke Shuey – he wasn’t injured at all, but instead flew home and missed the game to be at the birth of his child.

Eagles fans no doubt will be crossing every digit they have that Kennedy is fit next week and for the rest of the season.

They’re already coping with the longterm absence of Nic Naitanui, and will want every remaining gun available in their arsenal if they’re to challenge the Tigers for September supremacy.

Two teams having a bad run with injuries in any given year is hardly a shocker, but the AFL’s injury curse runs much deeper than that.

Last year’s grand finalists Adelaide’s season looks to have been dealt a death blow this weekend in a narrow loss to Melbourne, but they could easily have been a contender with a little better luck.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

The absence of Josh Kelly and Toby Greene for much of the year had the GWS Giants looking like it might be the same kind of story for them in 2018 – only now that both players are back are they standing tall.

Even then, the amount of talent they still have on the sidelines is staggering – Jonathon Patton and Will Setterfield have both done ACLs, Zac Williams his Achilles, Tom Scully his ankle.

Melbourne’s season might have been an entirely different one if Jack Viney, Tom McDonald and Jake Lever had all been able to bank 22 games this year, as might North Melbourne’s if that were true of Jarrad Waite and Ben Jacobs.

And that’s just looking at the clubs who are finals contenders. We haven’t been able to see nearly as much Nat Fyfe as we’d like, and it has to be recognised that no small part of Carlton’s struggles has been due to possessing the longest injury list in the league.

I don’t envy the panel picking the All-Australian team this year: there are more than a few players who arguably deserve to get in on form, but have missed just enough games to make it hard to pick them.

Even on a level playing field of fitness, I’d be tipping the Tigers to be yellow and back-to-back – there’s just something about the way they play – but undoubtedly it would be a tantalising finals campaign full of contenders ready to come at the king, rather than the fait accompli it currently feels like.

Would a fully fit Collingwood have been able to topple the Tigers on Saturday? Would a West Coast or GWS side with all hands on deck be able to reverse the poor recent record of interstate sides on grand final day?

In 2018, a year unfortunately defined by injury, we may never get to find out.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Hawkins spends another week in seventh heaven
Fourteen goals in two weeks is the kind of thing that will make the football world stand up and take notice, and we’re all finally giving Tom Hawkins the plaudits he deserves for what has been a very strong 2018 season.

At the close of the round, Hawkins’ fortnight of fourteen has seen him rise to second overall in the Coleman Medal race, just five behind Ben Brown, and if you were to pick the All Australian forward line right now he’d certainly feature.

Brown, Hawkins and Jack Riewoldt are probably your three talls there – though all of Lance Franklin, Tom McDonald, Josh J Kennedy and Jack Darling would certainly have been in the mix if injury was kinder, and might still be.

The Cats face a tough fortnight ahead with first Richmond then Hawthorn at the MCG, but will get to close out the season with two slam dunks at home. If they do squeeze into finals, here’s hoping the ‘Tomahawk’ takes some September scalps.

Sydney set for a rare September miss
At the end of last week the Sydney Swans found themselves in fourth place, but in a sign of just how tight things are on the ladder, a loss this week has sent them tumbling all the way to ninth.

The Swans have now lost four of their last five, with the only win in that time being some serious seat-of-the-pants stuff against North Melbourne (yes, I’m still bitter, why do you ask?).

Injury has no doubt been a problem for them as it has been for other sides, the superstar output in particular of Dan Hannebery and Lance Franklin having lost its sheen at times.

However one also wonders if they might be missing the coaching expertise of Stuart Dew, who left the club to take up his new gig on the Gold Coast at the end of last year.

Whatever is to blame for their lethargy, it appears the Swans are set to miss out on a finals berth for just the second time in fifteen years.

They have Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn to close out 2018 – it’s not too farfetched to suggest they may already have sung the song for the last time this year.

Paul Ahern delivers on his promise
As a fan of the club it’s not easy to pick the most satisfying aspect of North Melbourne’s win over West Coast on Sunday – there were plenty to choose from.

In particular the fact that North reverted to the stifling defence which served them so well in the first half of the year suggested that just maybe there is life in this season yet.

However at the end of the day one can’t go past the rise and rise of Paul Ahern, who is shaping up to be perhaps 2018’s most inspiring footy story.

After spending three and a half years waiting for his AFL debut since being drafted in 2014 – suffering and recovering from two ACL injuries in that time – he’s reminding everyone why he was a top ten draft pick.

Against West Coast, Ahern was No.1 on the ground for kicks (23), contested possessions (22, tied with Ben Cunnington), clearances (12) and metres gained (523).

Not bad for just your eighth AFL game.

(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Bombers lead the charge for finals gatecrashers
While this week unfortunately saw Adelaide’s season come to a virtual end – two wins and a massive percentage gap out of the eight with only four matches to go – it also put Essendon on the map as September’s most likely surprise.

The Dons hold their fate pretty much entirely in their own hands thanks to a draw that sees them play Hawthorn, St Kilda, Richmond and Port Adelaide to close out the season.

The match against the Hawks in particular shapes as a classic ‘eight-point’ fixture, but they’ll also probably need to snag a win against at least one of the Tigers or Port to squeeze in (and even that might not be enough).

Meanwhile, North Melbourne’s Hobart revival has them back in the mix to sneak into finals as well, and they’ve got a softer run home than the Dons do.

Matches against Brisbane, the Bulldogs and St Kilda are all winnable, but whether or not the Kangaroos can get their foot in the door of the final eight may come down to Round 22 against Adelaide, in Adelaide.

Finally, a Blue breakthrough
We’ve been critical enough of Carlton in 2018 that it’s only fair to toss them a friendly thumbs up in congratulations of picking up their second win of the season on Saturday night.

It was a bit of an odd game – both teams finished the night with 19 scoring shots, but the Blues came away 35-point winners.

What was most encouraging is that Carlton got it done by playing with a pace and verve the ilk of which we’ve rarely seen from them, a vote of confidence in the direction it seems Brendon Bolton wants to take this team.

They’ll finish the year just a few salad forks short of opening up a Harris Scarfe, but things are bound to get better in 2019.

Jade Gresham might be St Kilda’s greatest talent
I’ll admit to being one of those who was pretty sceptical when St Kilda decided to give up a very high draft pick in order to secure Jake Carlisle at the end of 2015.

The Saints were only just getting their rebuild started at the time and it seemed foolish to me to miss the opportunity to draft a really elite talent and instead chase someone who didn’t necesarilly fit into their age demographic.

One simply cannot argue with the results – Carlise himself has been a win, but more importantly the player they picked up with their downgraded pick, Jade Gresham, is proving to be one of the absolute gems of the 2015 draft.

Gresham is averaging career high goal and disposal numbers in 2018, and has just kept improving as the season has gone on, kicking 25 goals in his last eleven matches, and totalling 49 disposals across the last fortnight.

What’s particularly impressive for mine is that he really delivers when it’s needed most – some of his best performances this year have come against the league’s top sides, and we won’t soon be forgetting his clutch match-winner against Gold Coast. Superstar stuff.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The two sweetest words in the English language: Dee-fault
Ah, the Melbourne Demons. At three-quarter time this week they were up by more than five goals, but I challenge you to find me a single fan of the club who even dared to think they had it in the bag.

That scepticism of course proved to be well founded because Melbourne it seemed tried every possible avenue to lose the game in the last quarter but came up short.

They conceded ten of the first eleven scoring shots of the quarter to their opposition, and owe their victory only to the fact that Adelaide booted a deplorable 3.7 from those opportunities.

It took Melbourne until there were just 16 seconds left on the clock to kick the sealing goal, their first and only for the quarter.

Undoubtedly it was a bit of a lucky escape, but any one you walk away from, right? And who knows – maybe the feeling of getting one under their belts will help build Melbourne’s mental strength.

They survive another week in the eight, with their mammoth percentage being such a massive asset, and have what should be a regulation four points against Gold Coast next week.

But… Sydney, West Coast and GWS follow after that, with plenty of teams keen to nip at Melbourne’s heels. Don’t breathe too easy too soon.

Another false dawn for the Suns?
Last week we talked about Gold Coast’s incredible upset of Sydney as perhaps the greatest upset in the past two decades of football, but only a week later any hope that this was a watershed moment of the Suns has come crashing back to earth.

For the team to score arguably the best win in their history – and one that had key figures at the club talking about how it could be a launching pad to build a culture of success – to then come home and get spanked by this year’s wooden spooners was desperately discouraging.

We in the football media love a side of hyperbole with our hamburger but even the optimist in me found suggestions that the win might sway the decision of Tom J Lynch at the end of the year a bit silly, and no doubt this week’s dose of cold reality will hurt the chances of Steven May and David Swallow committing to the club.

This is pure speculation but I suspect the reason we’ve heard rumour about them lately is that perhaps the Suns have approached first one then the other hoping to sign them to a longterm deal and hand them the captaincy for the looming post-Lynch era.

The fact that instead there’s been talk of their potential departures suggests that, if what’s going on inside the four walls is anything like the scenario I’ve posited above, both are hesitant to make that commitment. They would both be free agents at the end of 2019.

That would leave the Suns choosing between two unappetising options: either keep them on and endure yet another year of contract speculation about club leaders (described by Bob Murphy as ‘termites in the culture of your football club’), or really shoot yourself in the foot by trading them out early. Eep.