Get ready for a football cliché so obvious and disgustingly tiresome it is sure to bring severe nausea to all who read it.
The Blues need a key forward.
While in reality, they need much more than that, this is a common concern that has haunted one of the AFL’s oldest and proudest clubs since what feels like the dawn of football itself.
The exploits of mercurial forward Brendan Fevola aside, the 21st century has provided Carlton fans with largely nothing in the way of exciting tall forwards.
In fact, many would go as far to say the Blues have been bereft of a reliable, match-winning key forward since the days of club captain and legend Stephen ‘Sticks’ Kernahan, who kicked a club record 738 goals during his illustrious 12-year career before retiring at the end of the 1997 season.
Carlton’s leading goalkickers since Sticks’ retirement more than two decades ago include Fevola’s admirable 575 (third on the Blues all-time goal kicking list), Lance Whitnall’s 348 and Eddie Betts’ 290.
Goal-kicking has notoriously been Carlton’s Achilles heel for the duration of the 21st century, and continues to be an unwavering problem for a football club that now hasn’t kicked a score over 100 since a round 11 win over the equally toothless Brisbane Lions on the June 4, 2016.
No club can attest to the football truism that ‘big blokes don’t grow on trees’ like Carlton.
Enter Jack Lukosius.
In what has been described by AFL talent scouts as potentially one of the great AFL drafts, the precocious Lukosius looms as arguably the drafts crown jewel.
The gun South Australian forward has impressed footy scouts around the country at both club and state level over the past 18 months. Bursting onto the scene for South Australia with three goals from 15 possessions against the Allies in the NAB AFL under-18 championships in 2017, it was a performance coming later in the season that could in time etch itself into South Australian football folklore.
Making his debut in the SANFL seniors for Woodville West Torrens, Lukosius trotted out and bagged four of his teams eight goals for the match. A remarkable feat for a 17-year-old playing against senior opposition for the first time.
What makes this story all the more astonishing is that this performance from the gifted Lukosius came in a preliminary final. Just like fans will recollect being at Etihad Stadium to see a young Steele Sidebottom kick ten goals in a TAC cup grand final, and those who witnessed a skinny Lance Franklin kick the winning goal for Western Australia on the siren at Kardinia Park will boast about being there in years to come.
Lukosius’ feats in that preliminary final have all the makings of a romantic football anecdote lucky witnesses will reminisce about when the young boy from Henley is making a Hall of Fame speech after having realised his enormous potential in the big league.
It is imperative the Blues find themselves in a position to snare the next gun forward about to enter the big time. And let’s be honest, that means finishing last.
While tanking has been the AFL’s dirty word for a long time, and Carlton have often found themselves in the thick of such controversy, getting Lukosius come November is critical. This will, of course, result in more short-term pain for long-suffering Blues supporters, who must surely be getting suspicious now that this is, in fact, long-term pain merely disguised as short-term.
Those same Blues fans would also point to the fact the draft is a lottery and is not an exact science; having pick one rarely equates to inevitably drafting the best player.
And those fans would be correct. In fact, list and talent managers inside AFL clubs often regard the facilities and development systems put in place by football departments superior to the ability to simply identify talent.
Perhaps this is why clubs such as Sydney and Geelong always seem to be in premiership contention despite seemingly never bottoming out and having access to the valuable draft selections Carlton has in recent times. When it comes to naming those bungled first-round draft choices, it’s a sad dishonour roll of unfulfilled potential and flat-out busts that is sure to make Blues fans squirm.
Since the turn of the century, Carlton have had access to 24 first-round picks. These players have serviced the club with a meagre 67.4 games on average, a number only propelled by the respective careers of former midfielder Bryce Gibbs (231) and captain Marc Murphy (240).
From the ten draft classes between 2005 and 2014, the Blues netted 12 first round draft picks. Besides Murphy, only one player remains on the current list (young midfield gun Patrick Cripps) from those draft hauls.
Kane Lucas (pick 12), Matthew Watson (pick 18), Josh Bootsma (pick 22), Troy Menzel (pick 11) and Blaine Boekhorst (pick 19) are all names that should make Carlton fans and recruiters alike shudder.
If anybody wishes to see a blueprint on how to go to the bottom of the AFL ladder and stay there, there’s no need to look any further than the Carlton football clubs’ list management strategies of the 21st century.
Having evidently been burnt a million times by the hope draft night can so often cruelly promise, Carlton fans have the right to be skeptical around the principle of losing to obtain valuable draft picks.
They know better than most that high draft picks don’t necessarily equate to on-field success. Fans may also point to the fact their forward line currently consists of arguably the most exciting young player in the league in Charlie Curnow, as well as exciting developing tall Harry McKay. So, do they really need a forward?
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Yes, and they need the fair-haired Lukosius from South Australia.
Despite the fact they seem to be allergic to drafting and developing talent, why wouldn’t Stephen Silvagni and the Carlton recruiting team be interested in a player described by ESPN.com AFL draft expert Chris Doerre as “a potential generational player who may be the best key forward to come through the junior ranks in modern times.”
Lukosius has been likened by Doerre to a young Nick Riewoldt, such is the young guns sheer football talent and freak mix of endurance and athleticism.
Interestingly, while Doerre compared Lukosius to the former St Kilda champion, Fox Sports’ Ben Waterworth likened Lukosius to Riewoldt’s cousin, Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt. Cal Twomey from AFL.com.au has also heaped praise on young Lukosius, describing him as “a key forward with innate game sense and feel,” while also noting that he “tends to do his best work as a lead-up option, rather than being a stay-at-home contested marking prospect.”
It’s no fun barracking for a footy team that is anaemic in front of goal and in turn finds itself on the wrong end of the scoreboard every week. Blues fans know this all too well.
It’s unfair also to recommend such a despondent football club keep losing games in order to guarantee themselves access to a prized young footballer, having been aggrieved by many similarly talented young footballers in the past. In this current climate, however, the Carlton football clubs’ hands are tied.
The Blues next draft blunder cannot involve passing on Jack Lukosius. Citing the fact they already boast young stars Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and possibly Jacob Weitering to lead the forward line into the future simply won’t cut it with the long-suffering Carlton faithful.
Lukosius is too talented for such a whimsical excuse. This young key tall prospect from South Australia is too good to pass up, and is just the type of player Blues fans have been praying for.
Jack Lukosius, without burdening him with too much expectation, is the kind of generational talent who can help change the fortunes of a club. Blues fans will be desperate to see this young man from Henley help lead the old dark navy Blues out of their almost two-and-a-half-decade slumber.
For real this time.
Sammy
Guest
Time will tell and yes carlton have a valuable commodity but it will depend what others are prepared to give up. Again i would prefer the club target rankine and the cost of moving from pick 8 to say pick 5 will be much less and should still leave the crows with another 1st rounder. Heck noble at brisbane may even trade their pick to the crows for a player and pick 8..he was very good to deal with re charlie cameron. I don't want to sell the farm to land pick 1 as good as luko is we have other needs and we can satisfy them in this draft i am sure...particularly as we have what could be a top 10 rated key forward coming through our NGA next year..as long as the AFL don't change the rules
Macca
Guest
There are a lot of if's in that first paragraph and even if everything works out in favour of the crows they will still have to give up plenty. Big risk for not much reward. On the second paragraph both your scenarios require the crows to give up plenty and still look likely to miss out on the player they want - why on earth would you give up 8 & 13 if you still aren't guaranteed you will get Lukosius. As for just looking to spite Adelaide nothing could be further from the truth I have no grudge against Adelaide, I just know what a valuable commodity the blues have and they need to ensure they get maximum value, which doesn't come from pick 19. One of the big issues with 19 is that it is a second round pick. It will already be pushed back to 20 with the Suns getting 3 for Lynch, if the Suns or Carlton (or both) then get a priority pick it slips further back, if the Eagle get a first round pick for Gaff it will be 18 (after their first round pick that the Suns have) and their could be some other free agents that get a first round or an end of first round pick both of which push 19 back further and then you have academy and father sons that could push 19 even further back. Even if the blues manage to get 17 (from the suns or a 3 way trade with the Crows) it takes out end of first round picks and any compo for Gaff from the equation and what could be a 2 pick difference could become a 4 or 5 pick difference.
Sammy
Guest
If luko goes to you at pick 1 and decides to leave after his 1st contract because he can't see any light at the end of the tunnel and he nominates the crows as his only club of destination (being a lifelong crows fan)..you either take what you can get or you lose him to the draft and when ever has a guy that nominates his club and goes to the draft not got to that club. As for pick 2..if they are fairly confident that your mob are taking walsh then yeah..if they really want luko why not. Or as for being a dollar short and a day late for picks 5 or 6 for rankine..it is not too hard to imagine a pick swap that includes pick 8 and say pick 19 for pick 5..especially as neither the saints nor dogs have a 2nd rounder this year. Plenty of options and luckily for the comp you are not running carlton's recruitment and drafting arm as clubs tend to look at what is going to help their club not just to spite another club
Grant Phillips
Guest
I completely disagree with this article, taking a 17 year old kid from SA who in reality would get homesick like a lot of the GWS players did isn't common sense. We have a backline problem that needs to be sorted out. In my opinion we have already have enough talent with Charlie,Mackay,Silvagni and Pickett etc to concentrate on and nurture I think we could possibly look for a ruckman and more defenders. Charlie Curnow in my opinion will become one of the best centre half forwards to play this game better than sticks and Fevola while Mackay should be a permanent Full Forward.
Macca
Guest
Sammy "not if thecrows have traded out to get pick 2" so you think they will give up 8 & 13 to get pick 2 when they really want pick 1? And even if they that happens do they not have a 2019 first round pick or a player to trade? This conversation reminds me a lot of this time last year when you said the Blues wouldn't get two first round picks for Gibbs and yet they did and I was proved correct. This year the Crows want Lukosius more than they wanted Gibbs - we'll see how it pans out. As for getting Rankine, the only way you can be sure to get him is by moving up in the draft because right now you don't have pic five or six, you a day late and a dollar short. As for playing the long game with Lukosius- do you really think you will have more to offer in 2 years than you do right now with a top 10 pick and 2 more in the top 20? I doubt that.
sammy
Guest
@macca 'Sammy – I am tipping blues supporters will be more forgiving of missing out on pick 19, than Crows fans will be of missing Lukosius' I want Rankine first and foremost and with the commentary around him I think he may very well be there around pick 5 or 6 and that is the where the club should be aiming for. We have plenty of key forwards but not mercurial smaller midfield / forwards...and by trading to get Rankine, we still are very likely to have further picks left to bring in more topline SA kids. I think the club will play the long game with Lukosius and target him in a couple of years time (its great that both he and Rankine are openly big crows fans).
sammy
Guest
@macca. 'The Crows have the capacity to pay more and the willingness to pay more – why would the blues settle for less' Not if the crows have traded out to get pick 2 and bundle that with pick 19, I would bet the world SOS takes that for pick 1 if walsh is his man - knowing that the crows don't have any other high picks to offer AND HE GETS THE PLAYER HE WANTS AND GETS AN EXTRA TOP 20 PICK. 'Hey Sammy I have a new deal for you – you don’t trade to get pick 1 this year, we take lukosius and you can give us 2 first round picks in a decade to get him back'...or you draft lukosius and he tells Carlton that he wants to go home and only play for the club he grew up following after 2 years...then you might get a 1st and a second rounder for him and hopefully he is not too damaged by being in a such a poor footy environment....the AFL is all about player movement now
Macca
Guest
Hey Sammy I have a new deal for you - you don't trade to get pick 1 this year, we take lukosius and you can give us 2 first round picks in a decade to get him back.
James Leppik
Guest
We have key forwards coming out of our backside including a key forward maybe better Lukocious in Charlie Curnow, who's had 3 years in the system.We need mids, another another key forward to unbalance our list.
James Leppik
Guest
We have a gun in Curnow as well as McKay, Kerr, both who have shown they can play at AFL level. De Koning look a very likely type too. What are we going to do with another one beside unbalance our list, We need mids and plenty of them. Happy for swap the number 1 pick to Adelaide for two first rounders as they are desperate for Lukocious. That way we can get two good mids in a deep draft. I've seen many a tall in the draft compared to others only for them not to carry on as well when they get to AFL level.
Macca
Guest
Sammy - I am tipping blues supporters will be more forgiving of missing out on pick 19, than Crows fans will be of missing Lukosius
Macca
Guest
Sammy - given the picks Adelaide have and the picks the Suns have (and that the Crows have to deal with the Suns to make the deal work) if the blues say no to your deal I am confident the would end up with the Suns pick 17, or the Melbournes pick the crows have or even a mature best 22 player. Why? Because as I said a few times now, the blues hae something the crows REALLY want and the crows are the only ones who could really lose. The Crows have the capacity to pay more and the willingness to pay more - why would the blues settle for less.
sammy
Guest
I highly doubt you would get offered a better deal in terms of picks than the hypothetical I posed in pick 2 and say 19 for pick 1...simples. Gold coast have no need to trade with you either and why would brisbane with pick 3 and both Saints and Bulldogs only have their picks then nothing till late in the draft to offer up. And it is absolutely cutting off your nose to spite your face if a deal like that came over the desk because ultimately you are settling for less than what you could get. I would be filthy at my club if they said..nup we will keep pick 1 instead of taking pick 2 and another top 20 pick that we could swap for a decent player or use in the draft etc etc etc knowing that the player we want is there at pick 2 because the club taking pick 1 will pick another player with a 1000% guarantee. And if it was just to spite another club that my club did not do a deal that had all upside and no downside, the membership would be up in arms. Having said all that, if somehow in trading the crows got pick 2..I would not be taking to Carlton to trade it and another pick as there is a reasonable chance it secures Lukosius..or if not, it certainly secures Rankine AND we keep the other picks we have
Macca
Guest
No it is utter stup !d!ty to sell something for less than you can get. And it isn't cutting off your nose to spite your face, it is making sure you get full value for a scarce and highly sort after resource and knowing the buyer has much more to offer. The crows want what the blues have much more than the blues need pick 19 and the blues can get more from the likes of the Suns than that - if Adelaide want pick 1 they will have to do better.
Sammy
Guest
Ahh so it is a case biting off your nose to spite your face then..fair enough. I am telling you point blank that if the shoe was on the other foot and it was us with pick 1 and we were happy to take either player that that deal is an absolute no brainer as we still get our player at pick 2 and we get pick 19 or 20 to then do something with. It is utter stupidity to refuse extra top 20 picks if it actually costs you nothing
Macca
Guest
Because you aren't giving me a jet ski, you are giving me a ticket in a raffle for a jet ski and I already have two tickets with roughly the same chance of winning (Bulldogs and Adelaide second round pick) plus by doing nothing I get the pick of the cars anyway and you get neither.
sammy
Guest
@macca. I don't think you are understanding the proposal. Example, if you had the choice between a Ferrari and a Lamborghini but that was all you could get and you were not bothered which one you pick and then someone came to you and said I will swap you the chance for the Ferrari but you still get the Lamborghini & because I am taking the Ferrari, I will give you a free Jet Ski or round the world trip as part of the deal to you. Why is that not a good deal for you..providing you are not bothered whether you take the Ferrari or Lamborghini? I am interested Remember as i posted in the previous post, you don't have to take the pick 19 or 20 to the draft - you can on trade it for a player or to upgrade another pick..options you don't have if you use pick 1 on a player you would get at pick 2
Macca
Guest
Sammy - we currently have 21 players 21 or under on our list - a pick at number 19 when who knows who will be available (once it gets past about pick 10 it becomes harder and harder with every pick to know who you will get) isn't high value to the blues. If Adelaide want Lukosius they will have to part with more than that. The blues will get there man regardless, the Crows won't so the need to pay the piper.
Macca
Guest
Col- I can't see what is in it for the Suns to match the offer other than standing on principle. They won't get a better draft pick than 3, I doubt any Collingwood player worth anything will agree to go to the Suns so I really can't see the advantage.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
And if the Suns match any offer Collingwood make (which I think they will) then Lynch stays at the Suns or Collingwood have to come up with some good draft picks/players.