Promotion and relegation: not a whole plateful, but a decent taste

By Tony Hodges / Roar Rookie

You know what’s great? Competitions with promotion and relegation.

Everyone knows why – it creates dramatic tension across the whole ladder at the end of the season, not just at the top, and it gives fans of clubs outside the top tier something to dream about.

We also all know the reasons why promotion and relegation won’t work with the A-League – it’s a franchise-based competition, which makes relegation difficult or impossible, and Australia doesn’t really have a second-tier competition with clubs in a position to step up if we did have promotion.

So, no relegation, no promotion. We can’t get there from here and we’re stuck with what we’ve got, right?

Wrong.

If the powers that be were happy to take the long view and live with some messiness, we could have a form of promotion and relegation that would give us most of the upside and grow towards a genuine second tier at the same time.

We can do it by using the power of expansion. The league is well down the track towards expanding the competition with two more franchises. I’m all for this because I live in Canberra and I’m sure they’ll make the right choice and give one to us.

But what about the next expansion, and the one after that?

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

There are 18 teams in the AFL and 16 teams in the NRL. The English Premier League has 20 teams. I don’t think there’s any doubt that once the current expansion is done the A-League will begin planning for the next one. As a rule, more content means more eyeballs, which means more broadcast revenue.

When the next expansion comes to 14 clubs, let’s give them to two top-finishing teams from the FFA Cup, but not on a permanent franchise basis. If either finish in the bottom two the following season, they’re relegated and replaced by the top-finishing teams from that year’s FFA Cup.

What if one of the franchise clubs finishes in the bottom two drop zone? Only one club gets promoted and relegated that year.

I freely admit clubs promoted into the A-League are going to struggle to finish above the bottom two – it would probably take one of the franchise clubs having a genuine disaster of a season not to – but then Central Coast had just three wins and four draws in 2015-16, so you never know.

The promoted clubs’ share of the broadcast deal will help bridge the gap with the franchise teams, but they’d still have to stand up the considerable back-end infrastructure existing A-League clubs already have running. The A-League has options to even out that advantage if they want to or need to, but managing booms and busts is just one of those things about promotion and relegation – just ask Blackpool or Cardiff City fans.

Promoted clubs will face a choice: spend the windfall dollars on a tilt at staying up or invest in the development infrastructure – physical and personnel – that will give them a sustainable chance of featuring regularly in the A-League.

(Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

This system would probably see quite a churn of clubs through the A-League, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. There’d be a pool of clubs – plus managers, coaches and administrators – with experience in the top flight. Plus there’ll be a pool of teams to form the basis of a new second-tier – teams with fan-bases, support structures and experience playing in a big competition with a heavy travel load.

There’s a solution to that churn over time too. Every time the league expands, the new slots should be for promotion and relegation clubs. A 16-team competition with four promotion and relegation clubs and two relegation slots – and, later, an 18-team competition with six promotion and relegation clubs – gets us pretty close to the stuff we like about a promotion and relegation.

This is not a perfect plan by any means. It’s wildly unfair that only some clubs would be at risk of relegation. Given where we start as a franchise-based competition, there’s no other way. Besides, competitions are never entirely fair. Big city clubs have clear advantages with sponsorship and the size of the potential fan-base over regional clubs.

It could also be true that the promotion clubs could simply fail to be near enough to A-League standard. We won’t know that until we try, though.

It feels to me like getting a messy taste of the good stuff is a pretty good start.

The Crowd Says:

2018-08-06T07:37:36+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


FIL - There are people around who have been there and done that and know a little about how much it costs to run a football team. Then there are those who sit with their hands folded across their stomachs and dream up situations that in the silence of their contemplation may appear to be quite feasible but always there is the cold hard facts to be faced and that is what we are pointing out to you, money doesn't grow on trees and there are also people around from "old soccer" that would only be too happy to fill you in on the dangers inherent in plunging into a competition unprepared. There were 12 teams that played in the NSL who are no longer in existence. That represents nearly a 30% "failure rate" so should not be brushed aside by platitudes. Cheers jb.

AUTHOR

2018-08-06T05:09:43+00:00

Tony Hodges

Roar Rookie


In this scheme the promoted clubs wouldn’t need to come up with the $ for the licence. The price they pay for this freebie is they can get relegated, unlike the franchise clubs. I don’t think any promoted clubs would be under any illusions about how tough a season in the top flight would be, but an even share of a year’s broadcast revenue would go a fair way. Certainly not a king’s ransom, but certainly a chunk of money they wouldn’t have otherwise.

AUTHOR

2018-08-06T05:04:37+00:00

Tony Hodges

Roar Rookie


The franchise implication is always going to be the hard part. This article is how the A-League could go closest to true pro/rel without advocating something that changed its fundamental financial basis.

AUTHOR

2018-08-06T05:00:29+00:00

Tony Hodges

Roar Rookie


I’d agree with all of that apart from the ‘has to’ part. We don’t have a second tier today. I don’t think there’s any prospect of us having one in the near future - no-one’s coming forward with the $ that would make it go. We start where we are, not where we’d like to be, and the franchise system makes it hard to have pro/rel in its ideal form. This, I guess, is my version of how we could most easily have most of what makes pro/rel good, and help foster the pool of playing and admin talent necessary to get us closer to a second tier.

2018-08-06T04:53:48+00:00

Tony Hodges

Guest


Yup - there’s lots about this aren’t the platonic ideal, some bits hat would be difficult and messy, and some bits that are unfair. That’s true of the competition we have today, though. In the end, this was the shortest workable path I could imagine to something close to propose pro/rel. It’s be nice if we had a second tier today for pro/rel, but we don’t. What we do have is a cup competition that might do the trick until we have one.

2018-08-06T04:21:37+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


Ful - Thanks for the reply but lets look at the points you make individually. (A) What do you mean when you say these clubs have a well established support base. Are you talking 1000, 5,000 or 10,000 for not one of those clubs mentioned ever pulled average crowds like that in your "old" soccer. (B)I fail to see how promotion and relegation in the first year of inception will affect attendances in any great numbers. (C) You would have to explain to me what exactly you mean by "community backed" Is that "community" going to cough up $20 million for season 1 ? (D) "War chests" is a very vague term and really doesn't tell the reader very much. (E) You get into a dangerous area when you state "a number of these old clubs have registered licensed clubs" when in fact that poses the question I asked first,who owns what?. Do the football team own the licensed club,or do the licensed club own the football team.? No as you say it is not "rocket science" but "old football's" history is dotted with identities that came ,tried,and were found wanting ,even in a semi-professional game so where is the evidence that they could maintain a presence in a league where the costs are at least triple if not quadruple what they were in the NSL. Some info that may help you in your thoughts. I ran an NSL club and their wage bill for the year came to $57,000. Nowadays a fringe player in the HAL is making at least $100,000 and remember there are another 22 players to be paid not to mention staff. Frightening,isn't it? Cheers jb. .

2018-08-06T03:23:47+00:00

Waz

Roar Rookie


It actually makes a lot of sense, but you’d need to learn the lessons from other sports .... as well as considering the requirements of your own code. I don’t think NRL could do it but it’s certainly something that AFL could do. In fact, I think they will do it - shortly after soccer implements it.

2018-08-06T02:48:29+00:00

Cousin Claudio

Roar Guru


I'm not squabbling. Agree with you 100% and there are probably more than 1.2 million kids playing football if you count all the social comps and fun teams. But who is going to bear the costs of a second division and which NPL clubs can afford it or the cost of running an A-League squad? Cold hard cash and economic realities.

2018-08-06T01:52:32+00:00

Nick Symonds

Guest


"An article last week stated that there are 1.2 million kids between 6 and 13 playing football." There were two articles from Roy Morgan in 2015 and 2016, the first was about participation numbers and the second was about A-League vs EPL viewing figures (you may like to bookmark them) - http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6563-more-girls-now-playing-soccer-than-netball-201511240022 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6727-more-aussies-now-watching-a-league-than-premier-league-on-tv-201603222218

2018-08-05T22:47:39+00:00

Football is Life

Guest


You blokes should be politicians you are so damned short sighted. An article last week stated that there are 1.2 million kids between 6 and 13 playing football. There's the future right there. Stop our squabbling and start thinking about the future and how we can build. It astounds me that Newy Jets are the first club to have a full equality academy for boys and girls. The common comment is that we want improvement and growth but the suggestions put forward are always critisised no-end. The hypocrisy is astounding This author has presented you with a plausible and economical first step and all you can do is bag it out. What are you a paid card carrying nember of the Nation Men's Cross-Country Netball League?

2018-08-05T22:36:56+00:00

Football is Life

Guest


What this author has come up with is a dmned sight more progressive than anything we have seen in football for dome time. Struth Newy Jets arecthe only club to have an equality academy. Lads and lasses. Everyone is prepared to whinge but nobody's preoared to stick their neck out and do the work. I have been involved with football for 41 years. I an sick and tired the procrastination whilst Eddy McGuire and his hypocritical mates call football fans bloody terrorists. Let's make the effort to maximise the potential of our game. Last week an atricle said that their are 1.2 million kids between 6 and 13 playing football. There's the future let's do someting about it instead of bloody squabbling.

2018-08-05T22:28:41+00:00

Football is Life

Guest


The key points here are A. The clubs I have mentioned are old football i.e they all have a well established supporter base. B. If given the promotion and relegation opportunity dont you think that their support base will turn out! C. These clubs are community backed. Unlike A-League clubs there are no current sponsorship restrictions on these clubs e.g if Telstra are sponsors it does not mean that rules out another telco sponsor. D. These clubs jave been buliding a war chest for this specific evolution of football for some time now. E. A number of the old football clubs have registered licensed clubs as part of their construct unlike A-League clubs who are reliant on the deep pockets of owners. It's not bloody rocket science.....unite the NSL and A-League clans and football is well and truly a presence in this country. I am a member of the latter. But I there should have been an element of consultation with NSL clubs from the outset of the A-league.

2018-08-05T22:14:17+00:00

MQ

Guest


In fairness to our local, suburban games, they have been successful competitions for over 100 years, so it seems silly for anyone to suggest that they need to utilise a system used in another sport. You can see it from their point of view. Take a team which has experienced a lot of lows over the past 30 years, but now has 100,000 members, what Australian sports administrator would want a team with 100,000 members to drop out of the top flight? It doesn't make any sense. But if you have a sport where there are only a handful of members, like the Mariners, then sure, you see them dropping down and it's not going to affect the league at all.

2018-08-05T21:34:20+00:00

Waz

Roar Rookie


I think it’s a very simple problem to solve though jb. There’s no doubt there are challenges in setting up pro/rel and we’re certainly not ready for it today but I think it is achievable within a decade. Change is needed though, the franchise system has to end and the FFAs dependency on “licence fees” with it. The cost burden on current clubs has to end as well. The overheads are simply too high. And the distribution of cash to the clubs has to increase to about 99% of revenues raised. Crucially, the A League salary floor has to go as well and transfer fees introduced between clubs. The key success factor in pro/rel is a clear set of minimum criteria necessary to move up a division, this ensures that clubs build themselves up and have a chance of surviving and aren’t stretching beyond their means. We also have to end the notion that every team in the top flight has to be fully professional, they don’t. If a team can survive financially with a mix of professional and semi-professional players then it should be allowed to do so. Whether they can survive on the pitch is a football matter, relegation will take care of those that can’t. For me the bigger issue in pro/rel is not the top flight but the financial viability of a second division. There is no evidence that Australians have an appetite for a second-class competition with only minor success in Shute Sheild, VFL, NTC and NPL. There are plenty of challenges to doing this but solutions must be simple, and we must avoid the mistakes of AFL, NRL and Super Rugby when looking at this ... not easy to do when we keep hiring sports administrators from those codes mind you.

2018-08-05T14:17:02+00:00

Cousin Claudio

Roar Guru


What "windfall dollars" for promotion? Nearly all A-League clubs are losing millions of dollars, being promoted to the A-League doesn't mean a huge windfall at all. Most "division 2" teams wouldn't even have enough money for an A-League Licence, let alone be able to run a multi-million dollar business. There is no billion dollar TV rights money to split up. Most teams would have to decline an invitation to join the A-League. How embarrassing would that be? We'd all love EPL style promotion/relegation football leagues with 20 teams in each division and a billion dollar TV deal, but that ain't going to happen in Australia for a while yet.

2018-08-05T12:14:39+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


FIL - From the tone of your contribution one has to assume you have considerable inside knowledge as to the finances of the "cashed up" clubs you mention. Have you??? Have we to believe that the initial FFA figure of a paying crowd of 10,000 that had to be attained (in 2005) for a franchise to be financially successful in the HAL was reasonably accurate?.. If that is so then the fact that Melbourne Victory,after those 13 seasons, and consistently averaging over 11,000 to their home matches may still be the only franchise to declare a "profit". Why is that so do you think? That being said suddenly you come up with 6 identities who, according to you ,are already in a position to take their places as full time professional clubs. That is great news indeed and I sincerely hope you are 100% correct in your information..Cheers jb.

2018-08-05T08:13:01+00:00

Football is Life

Guest


Hang on, when we talk about clubs not being able to make the jump to the A-League are we really that far away from a successful promotion and relegation system. When we have clubs that are seriously cashed up like South Melbourne, Marconi, Wollongong, Brisbane City, Brisbane Olympic, Heidelberg, there is half a second division already. Secondly, with the addition of their cut of the tv deal surely they are in the ball park. Not only that, some of these teams are already not too far off A-League standard as witnessed in the FFA Cup. The sticking point is the franchise implication. But surely there is some sort of legally binding contractual documentation/agreement that can be instituted for second division teams that levels up the playing field.

2018-08-04T21:55:05+00:00

jbinnie

Guest


Nick and Waz- While we would all like to see a simple pro'rel solution there is one thing that is never mentioned and that is where to quickly, safely, and legally source about $20 million, some of which has to be replaced year after year as "losses"are more prevalent among HAL identities than "profits". Even today,after 13 years of completed competitions there is much evidence to suggest that there are teams that still "struggle" to maintain a presence in the HAL. If this is recognised, and admitted, then one has to pose the question, does our sub-structure football all across the country have the necessary organisations well enough prepared to jump from part time football to full time professionalism, for as one can easily observe,the cost structures involved are world's apart.? The HAL's history is dotted with instances of franchises going very near to the breadline with Fury,Gold Coast, and Auckland failing to "make the grade', and Roar and Jets going very close to the wire,with Phoenix apparently under constant "pressure". Historically we have the 2 conference system behind us ,it was tried in the NSL with horrendous results that saw many "hopeful football identities" nearly driven "to the wall" by well meaning ,but poorly advised and poorly operating administrations, and yet the "dangers " today are equally still in existence, where to source and maintain the necessary finance.to guarantee success. Promotion and Relegation.although easily discussed, are not so easy to install and maintain,even in countries vastly more populated ,and much smaller,than ours. It is not widely known but when a team is relegated from the EPL there is a structured payout system to the clubs relegated over the following 3 seasons that enables them to maintain the contractual obligations to their players in their attempts to regain the much sought after promotion. These payout figures,supplied by the ruling body, are represented by sums of capital that would enable the FFA to run the HAL for a few seasons.(In recent times relegated clubs have received more than$120 million just to help them get back to the top) After 3 seasons with no success the "freebies" are cut off. Not so easy to compete is it, with a competition whose clubs are run and financed by billionaire identities?. No ,we have to recognise the problems inherent in our competition, distance and finance, before we research other countries "solutions". Cheers jb.

2018-08-04T21:39:44+00:00

Buddy

Guest


At my workplace this week there was a major discussion around “The wooden spoon” and the battle between Parramatta, Bulldogs, Manly and North Qld and I was asked for an opinion on the subject. My only contribution was to suggest that the whole subject would be so much juicier if one of those teams were to be relegated and that was the consequence of failure; not just a sales pitch for kitchen supply companies that increse tgeir sales of wooden implements each September as supporters provide presents for their friends and colleagues to comnemorate the low point for the various clubs. The concept was beyond a few but the conversation quickly turned into something far more interesting and whilst it wasn’t around my own favourite sport, there was a genuine interest and almost preference for a promition / relegation to be created. I just live with the hope that one day the franchise system will be manipulated into one that could accommodate this radical thought process as it becomes obvious to the governing body that the product on offer would be so much stronger and more appealing with the inclusion of promotion and relegation.

2018-08-04T01:28:18+00:00

Waz

Roar Rookie


Yeah i’ll buy that.

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