The commonly held takeout from Moneyball is that Billy Bean was a genius at recognising talented players that other managers missed. He was, but that wasn’t his key insight.
His key insight was that when putting together a baseball team, you have to focus on paying for the thing that you need to win games – runs – and not paying for anything else.
Now, baseball lends itself to detailed stats in a way that football doesn’t. Still, the core thinking remains useful: how do you put together a team that will generate enough goals that, on average over the season, will score more than you concede and thus win more games than you lose?
With that in mind, could Usain Bolt be good value?
That’s quite a different question to whether he is a good footballer.
Let’s start to answer that question with what his strengths are.
He’s quick (duh). More importantly, he’s quick over the sorts of distances footballers run. It’s true that Bolt was never the quickest over the first 30 metres on the track, but no matter – he was near enough that he could catch and thrash his opponents over the next 60 metres or so.
He’s tall, and he’s strong. I’d hazard a guess that his vertical leap is not too bad, either.
So, there’s definitely some strengths to work with, but they’re all physical, and while physical advantage is important, it’s far from definitive in football.
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How about weaknesses?
Not even his biggest boosters are expecting much from his touch. I’d hope for agricultural at best. He doesn’t have a career of matches either, so it’s safe to assume his positional play will be weak. There’s then the question of his cardio fitness – building short muscle for explosive sprints doesn’t leave you with a body good for tracking 12 kilometres over the course of a match.
Could someone with those strengths and weaknesses contribute to building the core metric for winning seasons: goals scored over goals conceded?
Safe to say Bolt’s not your man for keeping ‘goals conceded’ low. Being strong is important in defence, but positioning is everything, and Bolt won’t have that.
So, is there a way an enterprising manager could use his skills to add to the ‘goals scored’ side? Maybe. Someone 195 centimetres tall with a good leap has value as a set-piece target and decoy.
He’s not going to be gliding around defenders with the ball at his feet. You’d be looking for long releases in behind defences, so he can run on to the ball and leave defenders behind.
In essence, here’s the question: how many long balls on the break would you need for Bolt to get a decent-enough first touch; how many of those would he need to get a second to set for a shot; and how many times would he need to be one-on-one with a keeper for a bash to end up in the goal?
That doesn’t sound like pretty football, and it’s not new, but it could be effective. Long ball and hope is a perfectly legitimate tactic, especially if you’ve got someone on each end of the pass to reduce hope part.
Usain Bolt (photo: AAP)
Let’s say for every 12 long balls hit, he gets a touch toward goal on half. Let’s say he gets in a readying touch on half of those six. That gives him three decent cracks at the goal for every 12 long-balls forward. If you’re hitting eight of those long balls a game, how many goals will that get you?
How many goals would Bolt need to add in this way to be worth having? How much would any of those proportions need to be off, on average, to make the difference between a meaningful addition to goals scored and non-meaningful?
Sides would take steps to make this tactic as weak as possible, of course. You’d imagine the last line of defence would sit deep, and keepers stand up, to keep the run-on space shallow. That would reduce the effectiveness of the long-ball tactic, but has advantages of its own. There’s nothing wrong with forcing sides to adapt to your style of play, and space between the lines means opportunity for the midfield.
As long as the long ball to Bolt is adding to your scoring options, and not replacing them, is there enough added value?
If you can find a way to make Bolt’s strengths give you value against the only metric that counts, and that comes relatively cost-free because most of his salary is coming from the marquee fund, you’d take him and all the marketing boost that came with him in a blink, wouldn’t you?
Nemesis
Guest
Agree, there's a difference between match fitness & track fitness. Same as it is for every player in every sport. The rest of your post is meaningless. Footballers (I'll only deal with outfield players) come in all broad athletic groups. There are footballers with physical & aerobic capacities a) suited to long distance running (more 5-10 km than marathon athletes); others b) more suited to middle distance running (800-1500m) and others c) consistent with sprinters. Different roles in football (I presume in many team ball sports) require different aerobic & endurance types.
MQ
Guest
Again, you don't appear to understand there is a difference in the sort of fitness a 100m sprinter has, compared to the sort of fitness a 10,000m runner has compared to the match fitness required to run out a 90 minute game of football (where you are expected to do a bit more than just run, and where you need it on tap for the duration, and where a player with better football intelligence and anticipation is going to be first to the football even if he is much slower than Bolt.
Nemesis
Guest
"The opportunity for recovery on the training track is a little bit different to the opportunity for recovery in a real game out on the football pitch…" Again. This statement suggests you never did any training for athletics over your lifetime. I suggest you go down to your local track & see what sort of training the sprinters are doing during the winter break.
Midfielder
Guest
Todays TeRRorgraph says we have received over 200 million hits about the CC on signing Bolt.
Kangas
Roar Rookie
Re Jordan Murray I’m think his father is Peter Murray . He was a kurri / Weston kid that made it with the Wollongong wolves back in the Nsl Correct me if I’m wrong.
Midfielder
Guest
CC Love your style, you people from South Gosford FC, Bolt will be the leading scorer with two goals ... indeed ... BTW this is our squad with talk we have one but more likely two quality players to come. Squad & Coaches to date 23 players .... 9 coaching staff... allocated older players as Mentors 3 Keepers, ... Mentor, Kennedy for Pearce, Gauci 6 Backs ........ Mentors, Golec, Cissee for Clisby … McGing... Rowles ... Aspropotamitis--- 9 Mids .......... Mentors, Hiariej, McGlinchey for Berry, Melling, Pain... Mario Shabow Matthew Millar...Kekeris.. O'Neil 5 Forwards....Mentor, Matty S for Hoole, .... Gamerio ..... Josh MacDonald… Jordan Murray 3 Visa Players ... Cissee, Hiariej, McGlinchey Rumours ????????????? one maybe two quality players to come Trailist Bolt Coaching Staff Head Coach:... Mike Mulvey Assistant Coach: Nick Montgomery Assistant Coach: Ray Junna Goalkeeping Coach: Matt Nash Head of Performance: Andrew Young Physiotherapist: David McGinness Sporting Director: Mike Phelan Central Coast Mariners Academy Director: Ken Schembri Kit Manager: Melissa Woods[
Sydneysideliner
Guest
Maybe striker isn't his best position? Good strikers don't need speed if they can handle crosses or aerial balls with good first touches, and be a handful physically for defenders. So it's not so much his speed as his physique that he's relying on. What if they trialled him on the wing, where blinding speed in open space is a key ingredient. If Robbie Kruse can make it to the bundesliga, maybe we could see Bolt get into one of these situations: https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1280&bih=887&ei=OnFtW-P1AYjFwQKnyJ64Cw&q=gareth+bale+barcelona+gif&oq=gareth+bale+barcelona+gif&gs_l=img.3...5308.14090.0.14256.33.28.1.2.2.0.223.2843.3j12j4.19.0....0...1ac.1.64.img..12.20.2628.0..0j35i39k1j0i30k1j0i8i30k1j0i5i30k1j0i24k1.0.meYXA-Ea7vE#imgrc=zuzIEIA39FVznM
Midfielder
Guest
End up top score with 2 goals indeed... Just for the record this is our squad and coaches.. Squad & Coaches to date 23 players .... 9 coaching staff... allocated older players as Mentors 3 Keepers, ... Mentor, Kennedy for Pearce, Gauci 6 Backs ........ Mentors, Golec, Cissee for Clisby … McGing... Rowles ... Aspropotamitis--- 9 Mids .......... Mentors, Hiariej, McGlinchey for Berry, Melling, Pain... Mario Shabow Matthew Millar...Kekeris.. O'Neil 5 Forwards....Mentor, Matty S for Hoole, .... Gamerio ..... Josh MacDonald… Jordan Murray Squad includes3 Visa Players == Cissee, Hiariej, McGlinchey Rumours ????????????? no specific names being talked of Trailist Bolt Coaching Staff Head Coach:... Mike Mulvey Assistant Coach: Nick Montgomery Assistant Coach: Ray Junna Goalkeeping Coach: Matt Nash Head of Performance: Andrew Young Physiotherapist: David McGinness Sporting Director: Mike Phelan Central Coast Mariners Academy Director: Ken Schembri Kit Manager: Melissa Woods[
MQ
Guest
The opportunity for recovery on the training track is a little bit different to the opportunity for recovery in a real game out on the football pitch...
Nick Symonds
Guest
"when we take on Jordan" My mistake.
Nick Symonds
Guest
"Even greater anticipation building for the 2019 Asian Cup which kicks off for the Footballroos as the current holders on 6 January when we take on Jordan in Round 1." The Asian Cup has expanded from 16 to 24 teams and will feature China and India in 2019 as well as Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam who have also qualified. It's a pretty big audience. But it's being held in the United Arab Emirates, not Jordan. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_AFC_Asian_Cup#Teams
Nick Symonds
Guest
ABC - News Corporation chalks up $1.9bn loss as Foxtel's value written down by another billion News Corporation Australia — which includes The Daily Telegraph in Sydney, Melbourne's Herald Sun and The Australian — reported a 1 per cent increase in revenues on the prior year. Foxtel's revenues were flat with the positive impact from foreign currency fluctuations offset by falling subscription numbers and lower advertising revenues. Pre-tax earnings at Foxtel fell by 22 per cent, or $208 million, primarily due to AFL and NRL rights driving up sports programming costs by $120 million. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-10/news-corporation-1.4-billion-loss/10105102
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
I understand Usain doesn't get a cent, unless he passes the trial and makes the squad, so there may be no money involved at all. In the meantime the sunny Central Coast and the Mariners are getting millions of free advertising around the world. Apparently since the announcement, Central Coast holiday bookings have gone up 30% already. Not a bad return on an investment that cost nothing at all.
Nemesis
Guest
"The other important point is: it’s irrelevant how fast his first 20-30m sprint is, what’s more important is how fast his 60th, 70th and 80th sprint is" You're kidding, right? Or, do you honestly not know what physical work is done by an athlete to win 8 Gold Medals in, possibly, the most highly competitive sporting event on the planet? If you were even a hack track runner in your youth, you'd know that 100x 100m training was pretty normal during pre-season. For 200m some coaches like Franz Stampfl used to get his 200m kids (and, I literally mean kids, u14 years old) to do 100x 300m repetitions. So, yeah. I reckon Usain would be faster after his 100th 100m sprint than any pretend Olympians in any other sport.
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
2018-2019 is shaping up as one of the best seasons for the A-League, with a big growth in interest after the World Cup according to the Herald Sun. There have also been a number of good signings and marquee players that have created interest all around the world. Usain Bolt has already given the A-League and Australian football millions of dollars in free advertising. Even the Victorian Rules marketing department are talking about him and his impact on the A-League. Usain's lichtning speed will suit Mike Mulvey's kick and chase football tactics perfectly. He will end up the Mariners top scorer with 2 goals to his name. Even greater anticipation building for the 2019 Asian Cup which kicks off for the Footballroos as the current holders on 6 January when we take on Jordan in Round 1. The A-league and Australian football has a big, bright future in Australia.
MQ
Guest
"The five teams from the biggest markets have reached the finals 17 out of a possible 20 times in the past four seasons, while the other five clubs only made 7 out of a possible 20 finals berths.” Should that be out of 24 finals berths?
MQ
Guest
The other important point is: it's irrelevant how fast his first 20-30m sprint is, what's more important is how fast his 60th, 70th and 80th sprint is.
MQ
Guest
Yes, well summed up. From the minimal vision I've seen, Bolt's first touch is even worse than Brett Holman's, but it looks like he can sink the slipper into the middle of the ball with a fair bit of venom (not sure about his ability to control its direction).
Nick Symonds
Guest
NEWS - A-LEAGUE THE 'WORST OF BOTH WORLDS' The A-League is getting less competitive and richer clubs are running away with the silverware, according to the new annual report from the players union. - The five teams from the biggest markets have reached the finals 17 out of a possible 20 times in the past four seasons, while the other five clubs only made 7 out of a possible 20 finals berths." - The PFA adds: "What we have now is a league that is no more or less competitively balanced than the average European league, but one in which players and clubs suffer the unwanted side effects of a labour market model which has a primary purpose of promoting competitive balance. "It is the worst of both worlds." - https://www.fourfourtwo.com.au/news/a-league-the-worst-of-both-worlds-500035
Lionheart
Guest
recall Mike at the Gold Coast when Clive tried to bully him around.