The days before the first Bledisloe Cup Test of the year; that time of year when tentative views about the Wallabies have been building since June, forming the most uneasy question in the forefront of the Australian rugby mind.
Could this be the year? Or could it be a sixteenth year of you-know-what?
Hope springs eternal, as the grand old saying goes, but equally, the stink of history is never far behind.
It’s certainly true that the Wallabies haven’t lost the Bledisloe Cup in 2018. Yet. That may happen, but it may not happen.
And that’s what makes this week exciting.
We’ve all been in this position before as Australian fans; hoping for the best and/or secretly fearing the worst. The two aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, either.
Thinking back over the last few years, I know I’ve been in this position. I’ve written from both sides of this fine line in this time, though looking back over pre-Bledisloe columns from the last three years, the year the Wallabies did win the first trans-Tasman of the year wasn’t exactly standing out as a likelihood.
In 2015, the Rugby World Cup meant that only two Bledisloe Tests were played, and of them, only the first Test in Sydney counted toward the Rugby Championship. It would decide The Rugby Championship, in fact.
The Wallabies had beaten South Africa in Brisbane, and then went to Mendoza and gave Argentina a proper touch-up, but my concerns were more around some of the Wallabies’ finishing and after a night where he just didn’t strike the ball well off the tee at all, Bernard Foley’s kicking.
Although, to be fair, I don’t think anyone would have predicted Nic White’s fifteen-minute, ten-point cameo turning the Sydney Bledisloe on its head and claiming the Rugby Championship in the process.
2016 was the year I actually did feel reasonable about the Wallabies’ Bledisloe chances, reasoning through the season that the All Blacks’ forced generational change after the retirement of Richie McCaw and Kevan Mealamu, and the overseas moves of Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, and Conrad Smith.
In the week of the Sydney Test – back to its traditional slot of opening the Rugby Championship – Blues midfielder George Moala was ruled out. This led me to suggest, “and the Wallabies have to be good enough to take advantage of what is suddenly a vulnerable-looking midfield… Yes, they’ll have to win the breakdown contest too, but if the Wallabies are going to win, it will have to come playing close to the line, and exploiting any chinks in the New Zealand midfield defence.”
With the second and third Tests to be played in Wellington and concluding in Auckland, the Wallabies best chance in more than a decade was here.
It finished in a record loss in Sydney. I’m sorry if that’s brought back successfully suppressed memories.
Last year, and writing before the two sides were named on the Thursday before the Test, the potential selections were the most intriguing elements of the looming contest.
The All Blacks midfield was a proper selection headache for Steve Hansen, with Ngani Laumape and Anton Lienert-Brown finishing off the British and Irish Lions series, but Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams right back in the frame. Hansen went with the latter pair.
There was plenty of discussion about Israel Folau playing on the right wing for the Wallabies – simplify his game, make him more dangerous was the argument, as it remains now, and as the Waratahs proved for a month this year. Yet here we are.
It seemed certain that Kurtley Beale was a lock for inside centre, or which I wrote would require, “a musical chairs type of arrangement where players who can’t defend suitably head to the backfield, and those who can rush up into the front line. This has never been fraught with danger in the past, so why change now, right?”
“For mine, this decision comes down to who plays at 12, both in attack and defence,” I argued later in the same piece. “If [Recce] Hodge doesn’t start somewhere, then it nearly has to be [Tevita] Kuridrani at 13, and leading the defensive midfield press. If Hodge is there, then perhaps [Samu] Kerevi can slot in there. I genuinely can’t split the two 13s.”
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Beale and Kerevi started in the centres, there was more defensive shuffling than a three-cupped-find-the-ball stand in sideshow alley, and the Wallabies went into the sheds at halftime down 40-6. Kerevi was dragged at the break.
This year, Kerevi and Kuridrani are out, and Beale and Hodge will be the centre pairing. Folau – as if there was ever any chance he wouldn’t – will again start at fullback.
The All Blacks have Brodie Retallick and Keiran Read back in the pack. Jack Goodhue is in the centres for his second Test. Waisake Naholo is back, meaning Ben Smith goes back to his preferred fullback, which in turn means there’s no room for Jordie Barrett. Beauden Barrett, incredibly, is suddenly playing to hold his spot. That’s all interesting.
But then Tom Robertson has pipped Allan Ala’alatoa for the loosehead start, which I don’t mind admitting I didn’t see coming. Lukhan Tui will pack alongside Adam Coleman and Izaak Rodda. Matt Toomua is back; Jack Maddocks could debut.
That’s all interesting, too.
That’s why Bledisloe week – as crazy as history makes this sound – has steadily become my favourite week on the rugby calendar.
Everything is possible. Anything could happen. Hopes springs eternal.
Offside
Guest
Australia should hate Gregan for that jibe. It was the burn that hurt a nation so bad, the All Blacks started on the path that brought us to where we are. A burn so hard, some farmer in the Hauraki had a sign up for years giving one back to Gregan. A very sad and pathetic sign it was as well. So thank you George Gregan for fixing the All Blacks :-D
alanbstardmp
Guest
oh dear!
englishbob
Guest
ow one of my favourite films, I should have got the reference, my bad! yes and yes. Nearly time, wallabies by 2 scores...
John R
Roar Guru
Yeah bloody devastating mate, I thought he was a bit of an ace up the sleeve for us hey!
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
As to your last reply. Just saw this morning that the Tongan Thor is out - hammy!! Not good
Cliff Bishkek
Roar Rookie
100% true Moa. The Qld vs NSW rivalry is a blot on the game in Aus. But then so is the Admin of the Shute Shield and the Hospital Cup (if it is stilled named that) in Brisbane. But the latter two above have shown some movement towards supporting the NRC, etc. But there needs to be a movement towards the centralisation system of NZ. And frankly, the RA Board needs a complete revamp - both members and "who is allowed" to nominate or be nominated or appointed".
Eagan
Guest
Yeah i remember 2015 too.Bernard Foley had a shocker, but we still won, same with 2017 ,Foley had a shocker and we still won.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Brett. ABs are predictable in terms of performance Since 2015 WBs have been erratic. Sometimes terrific. Sometimes terrifying. And painful. I call it battered wide syndrome God knows what we will see today But gooooo WBs. WBs by a million
sheek
Guest
Here's a sobering thought for Wallabies fans. Even back in the early 2000s when we had a truly great team, we still relied on a few last minute wins. But at least they managed it. Eales with an injury-time penalty in 2000; Kefu with a last-minute try in 2001; Burke with a late penalty in 2002. Or if we go back to that extraordinary series of 1992. We rode our luck winning the first two tests, with a settled & world class combo. But at least they did it. We don't even have a great team at present, yet somehow they have to find a way beyond the ABs, not once, but twice out of three encounters. The Wallas might be good enough to pinch one test, but that would be the best we can hope for.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I think you miss the point. If that’s how you see things, you might be bitter and cranky. I’m not fan of Cheika but even I can see he has changed his approach over the past 4 seasons. And I don’t know how you consider RA doing the same thing over again. Since 2013 we’ve seen probably the greatest level of change in Australian rugby history barring professionalism. Junior structures and programs have been revised, they’ve cut a super rugby team, they’ve implemented a 3rd tier to develop the players who don’t get a full super rugby season, and other initiatives. I think you’ve just been spoilt by being around for probably our greatest generation where the administration at that time didn’t really do anything, and just lived off is getting a head start on progressionalism in the late 80s through the AIS and our competing codes as well as the benefit of talented individuals of the time. Now you’re judging the effort of current people by the results, without considering everything around them has changed.
Crash Ball2
Guest
G’day TOW, welcome to The Roar! It’s a decent point by Cully. The Blacks will score points against the best of teams but a number of Wallaby selections (in the backline in particular) sacrifice defensive capability for attacking prowess and will essentially require us to score more points than them. Thing about the AB’s is that their defence is top shelf as well. The backs contain a number of leaders - particularly with the likes of Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty - who are invariably well positioned, make great decisions and rarely miss a tackle. By comparison, Foley, Beale and DHP look shaky on the back foot, Falou can often be caught out of shot and there is already speculation Hodge will be doing little on attack given how full his hands are going to be going the other way. Frankly, the Walls’s are going to need a fast, confident start and some early points to have a good shot at this - then the resilience to weather the inevitable NZ backlash. Fingers crossed.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
It won’t stop old mate continually making enough slanderous claims without evidence to make McCarthy proud. I certainly know that.
John R
Roar Guru
I have a bad feeling that the end of this ASIC investigation won't make things better, it will just make them worse.
The Open Wing
Roar Rookie
Paul Cully (I hope that’s not a swear word here) has written an interesting article emphasising the importance of taking aggressive attacking options against the ABs. In short: we have to accept that they’re going to score a heap of tries, so we have to chalk up a load of points if we’re any hope for success tonight. Makes a lot of sense to me. I think we’ve got it in us to create the opportunities, but am concerned that we just won’t be able to convert when we get close to the line and we’re under defensive pressure. I’m hoping to see our fundamental catch and pass skills hit a rare early-RC high!
One Eye
Roar Rookie
Actually Kirky, I'd disagree. That AB side in '99 and on to 2002ish had the stench of bad on them - take out that back 3 of Wilson, Lomu and Cullen and there were gaping holes of mediocrity - how many centre combos tired over the period? How many locking combos? and what was with that soft Otago front row? Having the best back 3 with Mehrtens and Kronfeld could not pull that team up.
Sherry
Guest
My bad, Bob. I thought you took your name from the character that Richard Harris played in Clint's Unforgiven. But it turns out, I assume, your name is Robert and you're English, hence the name?
englishbob
Guest
Frightfully sorry Sherry, to which awful kicking are you referring to?
Sherry
Guest
Hi there English Bob. Hope you're over that awful kicking you took. Something like a Bled in the NH? Not possible as long as there's no outstanding team year after year like the ABs. It'll be hard for us to compete with the NZ backs on Saturday. Our 10 is iffy, and Hodge is neither a great attacker nor a defensive whizz. Plus we have a prop missing and two locks that aren't up to the top quality pairing the ABs have (or the Boks for that matter). And Reid gives the ABs another big plus in the forwards. NZ versus England and Ireland in November are the games world rugby fans are waiting for.
ozinsa
Guest
I get the problems you see and would prefer they didn’t exist but I also love to be optimistic leading into a Bled series
Hugo
Guest
Moa. If only we had steerpike at 10.