Folau-less Wallabies will struggle to fire a shot at Eden Park

By Will Knight / Expert

When can someone’s worth jump sharply by doing next to nothing? When does someone’s value climb when they’re not even at work but at home on sick leave?

Israel Folau will likely be sat on his couch with his injured ankle raised when the Wallabies aim to do the nigh-on-impossible and beat the All Blacks at Eden Park on Saturday night.

Folau is yet to re-sign with Rugby Australia beyond this season, which should be getting Wallabies fans a bit nervous as we edge towards September and with the World Cup just over a year away.

He may have lost a few fans earlier this year over his ‘Gays to Hell’ tweet, but it would be disingenuous even for Folau’s biggest critics to deny that he’s in Australia’s top-three most-valuable rugby assets – along with David Pocock and Kurtley Beale.

The Wallabies have been severely underwhelming since making the final of the last World Cup in 2015, with a rare win over the Kiwis interspersed with deflating home losses to Scotland, England and Ireland, and less-than-convincing victories over Italy and Fiji.

For the Wallabies to be given any chance of making the World Cup semi-finals in Japan next year, or of even knocking over South Africa and Argentina over the next few years, then Folau needs to be there.

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Folau and Beale are the two Wallabies in the backline that consistently threaten opposition defences – either they’re the ones making the linebreaks or they create space for teammates around them.

If the Wallabies were limp in attack in Sydney last Saturday in a 38-13 Bledisloe Cup thrashing, the loss of Folau to injury means they’ll be just about impotent in Auckland.

Surely Australia’s set-piece can’t be as woeful as it was in Sydney, where they lost seven lineout throws and were demolished in the scrum by the All Blacks front-row of Joe Moody, Codie Taylor and Owen Franks, giving away five penalties.

But even if they get their hands on more of the pill, the Wallabies – minus Folau at fullback – don’t have the arsenal to put points on the board.

Some hold the view the Wallabies need to score at least 30 points to have a hope of victory at Eden Park, and that ain’t gonna happen without Folau in the side.

During the week, Wales Online published a list of the top earners in international rugby, and Folau led the way with reported earnings of $2 million per season.

Reckon he’s worth it?

It’s outrageous money, but his absence this weekend will probably play a big part in answering that.

His value to the Wallabies might be more stark if he’s still sidelined for the following Rugby Championship matches against the Springboks and Argentina.

Unlike the All Blacks, they’re two sides that a misfiring Australia can legitimately feel they can topple with enough possession to work with.

Folau hasn’t missed many Tests since his 2013 debut. He missed the northern hemisphere tour at the end of last season. Aside from the belting of Japan, the Wallabies scraped home over Wales 29-21 and were hammered 30-6 by England and embarrassed 53-24 by Scotland.

The Wallabies can’t beat the top nations without Folau.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

If Folau’s manager was cocky enough, he could increase Folau’s asking price to re-sign following the Eden Park clash – that’s how ineffective Australia’s attack is shaping to be sans Izzy.

Dane Haylett-Petty steps in at No.15 and doesn’t look like he’s confident at full speed following a knee injury.

Jack Maddocks fills Haylett-Petty’s spot on the wing. The Melbourne Rebels utility scored Australia’s only try on his Test debut when he got on for the final 25 minutes last Saturday night.

The worry with Maddocks is that because he’s lightweight, he often gets held up in the tackle that leads to turning over possession. It happened quite a bit in Super Rugby when Maddocks got caught in traffic.

Marika Koroibete didn’t make much of an impact last weekend and Reece Hodge is tentative in attack as he’s more concerned about being tidy in defence in his new position at outside centre.

Will Genia and Bernard Foley are doing it tough behind an outclassed forward pack, although Foley’s running game has been below-par for a while.

Michael Cheika’s biggest issue is getting the Wallabies forwards to get anything close to parity in the set piece, but even if they do, it’s difficult to feel optimistic that a Folau-less backline can poke their noses through the All Blacks defence, let alone generate the four tries needed to have a hope of ending their 32-year Eden Park drought.

The Crowd Says:

2018-08-25T05:23:06+00:00

Gepetto

Guest


Banks is in great form; Sause is out of form so Clown picks Sause. Australian citizen, JP Smith will be eligible for the Wallabies soon and the devastating Reds front row will be available for duty. Kepu should be looking for a job on the soft turf of Britain. Is it worth $2million per year for the results we are getting with Folau. How much would the Broncos or Toulon pay for him?

2018-08-25T05:02:35+00:00

Hookersblood

Guest


I hope they don't give away any lineups this time round, disappointing to lose possession at such crucial moments. Even more frustrating given having the advantage of control and direction.

2018-08-25T03:56:24+00:00

Mike

Guest


Yes we will struggle without him, but only somewhat less than we were going to struggle with him. We need to have our basics squared away, to avoid playing into their ability to counter-attack from broken play - scrums, lineouts, recycling, long phases, tactical kicks and clearances. Even just getting our lineouts right will make a big difference to our exhaustion factor over the 80 minutes Be prepared for the utter intensity, and anything is possible.

2018-08-25T02:49:03+00:00

Fishboy

Guest


Bugger, I hate agreeing with Jones.

2018-08-25T02:33:56+00:00

Cliff Bishkek

Roar Rookie


As we have been trying to point out to you Terrence is that DHP is not a natural winger he is a very good Fullback. He was placed at winger to accommodate him and Folau in Cheika's flawed policy and lack of proper selections; people play where they are best suited and where they have the skills to do that job. Folau = winger and DHP = Fullback. Banks is a better FB than he is a winger but he is good as a winger because of his speed. Ben Smith is a better FB than he is a winger, but he can handle the position of winger very well and is one of the reasons maintains him in the team when he has slected another as a FB.

2018-08-24T23:30:10+00:00

Noodles

Guest


Good argument for under8s Will. But if the WBs are reliant on one man then we can give up the game.

2018-08-24T23:09:17+00:00

Acker

Guest


Every year and ahead of every match we hear the same old hype. It's yawn inducing. We are getting closer, they aren't as good as people think they are, we've worked them out blah blah blah. The only time the Wallabies can beat the ABs at the moment is when it's a dead rubber and the trophy is locked away. The only result that matters is a win be it by 1pt or 20pts.

2018-08-24T23:07:14+00:00

ForwardsWinMatches

Guest


If you took your blinkers off you’d have seen plenty of eyelids bat at Hooper’s deal - or does acknowledging that not suit your conclusion of racism etc...or perhaps that was reverse racism...I don’t know, I get so confused when you bed-wetters talk. Seems to me you’re too far gone to be saved. Next.

2018-08-24T20:14:57+00:00

Oliver Matthews

Expert


One of the biggest issues that has haunted the Wallabies and will continue to do so is their lack of quality and depth at #10. Looking at the top fly halves around the world at the moment where would he be ranked? Barrett is better. On club form Mo’unga is better. Sexton is better. McKenzie is more dangerous in attack but also more of a risk and the same could be said of Finn Russell. We could go on through the rest of the international fly halves but what is clear that ever since the Final of RWC 2015, Foley has been in the second tier of those at the top of the game currently. You can't expect a team to win big games consistently with an average fly half. England made a surprisingly good go of it in 2016 and 2017 with George Ford but he's been found out and the England side are struggling now. Foley is not unleashing the potential in the Wallabies back line. He's not got a strong kicking game out of hand. The fact that he's also got a very hot and cold pack in front of him of course makes it harder but that's not a good enough excuse. What's just as concerning is the fact that he's under absolutely no pressure from any other fly half options!

2018-08-24T16:12:58+00:00

Englishbob

Guest


I'll stir the pot a bit. Aside from jumping to catch a Gary Owen what does folau bring exactly? He plainly lacks positional nouse. He's big but not as fast as Beale/maddocks/banks or koriebete. He can't defend and doesn't have anything approaching a kicking game, hes a winger, he should always have been a winger. Beale also can't defend but his all-round skill set is as comparable to Ben Smith, who must be getting close to being the best 15 of all time, as anyone else. Folau is symptomatic of the issue with too many of the wallabies, glaring deficiencies in the basics of the game. Foley : can't kick beyond 40m, generally lower end of kicking accuracy for an international 10, poor defender : so what's his USP? Folau: see above. Hooper: awful captaincy, awful discipline (this is the captain of Australia) Robertson: not an international prop, club at best. Latu/ TPN: awful accuracy at line out time. Compare those above with their opposite numbers on Saturday (nee sam cane who may be injured) who aside from being the best in the world at their respective positions are impeccably coached and managed, are all fitter and all master the basics of throwing and catching. Until Australia gets its set piece, defence, fitness and basic skills to par, it will lose every time to NZ and most.of the time to Ireland England Scotland and South Africa. You need new coaches, and they need to probably be kiwis. Let folau go, and use his money to get Scott Robertson

2018-08-24T13:56:52+00:00

Wallsy

Roar Rookie


I've seen many conversations about Australia's selection policy, and some other threads about who would make a combined XV. Just wondering what people think a combined XV would look like with Cheika as the selector. Which All Blacks do you think he rates above their Wallabies counterpart? Just how loyal do you think he is to his core players?

2018-08-24T13:53:33+00:00

Baz

Guest


What could possibly go wrong.

2018-08-24T13:01:55+00:00

Lara

Guest


My head is spinning, but truly brilliant.

2018-08-24T11:31:28+00:00

jameswm

Roar Guru


Exactly. Some want to stay in Australia if we can go close on salary.

2018-08-24T11:28:16+00:00

Jim Ball

Guest


For a man who gets paid so much and gets such accolades he is totally over-compensated. His defensive positioning is consistently awry; his vision for supporters in attack lacking; and his victorious appearances cameo-like. Sadly, he is touted in the press as an essential ingredient to Wallaby victory. The anecdotal stats mentioned by the other correspondents here speak for themselves. A fine man, and these comments are not malicious, but not the rugby messiah the press would allow. His injury will give some longer-term depth to top-level oz rugby. May he recover soon.

2018-08-24T11:19:44+00:00

Baz

Guest


Sorry Cliff, that was the wrong response. You are correct. Good fullbacks read the game and need to know where to inject themselves. I don't see Folua as a good fullback either. He is a fine athlete without a Rugby fullback pedigree. That athleticism can be used where decision making is not as critical. Interestingly the more we talk and promote him the more attention the AB's give him. We would be better off just treating him as any other player rather than as the new messiah. Stick him on the wing and teach him to go looking for work. DHP is a much better fullback but he looks not fully recovered at this point so Banks is the obvious choice.

2018-08-24T10:45:21+00:00

terrence

Guest


where you been the last few years?..he's always been excellent against tough opposition..brisbane 2017 against the ABs? in fact, in all the bledisloe tests last year,..

2018-08-24T10:41:14+00:00

terrence

Guest


nothing intellectual about the thinly-veiled folau hating on here..he's shown up and played brilliant dozens of times against tough opposition..brisbane against the Abs 2017 anybody?..I reckon there's a bit of jealousy, racism and anti-christian mixed up in all this anti-folau non-sense..bet nobody would bat an eyelid if DHP was brilliant as folau..

2018-08-24T08:20:58+00:00

aJ

Guest


Good old one eyed jimbo, nothing to do with Izzy’s arms wrapping around him in the air after he missed the ball. Red saw it that way citing commission saw it that way but jimbo still says he’s innocent and it’s a conspiracy. Quick put a foil hat on

2018-08-24T07:54:34+00:00

double agent

Guest


I've never read anywhere anyone compare Banks to Christian Cullen.

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