If you saw Bledisloe 1 or have been following the coverage this week then you might be wondering how any preview of Bledisloe 2 can be any longer than:
Venue: Eden Park
Result: All Blacks many vs Wallabies few.
But as always, rugby is not as simple as that. Of course the All Blacks are firm favourites but while there were some big issues for the Wallabies highlighted in the first match, it’s fair to assume that they will be working hard right now in their island camp to get things in order and will put in a better performance this weekend.
All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe 2 live scores, blog
With both sides making personnel changes there’ll be some interesting new battles, most notably in the front row where the Wallabies have made two changes bringing in Scott Sio and Allan Alaalatoa for Tom Robertson and Sekope Kepu.
Jack Maddocks has also earned a starting position on the wing as Dane Haylett-Petty moves to fullback to replace Israel Folau. Are the Wallabies any stronger for these changes? Hmm… debatable.
For the home side there are two changes in the backs as Ryan Crotty is replaced by Ngani Laumape and Jordie Barrett comes in for Rieko Ioane although the Hurricane player will be at fullback and Ben Smith will move to wing.
In doing so he and Waisake Naholo become the oldest ever wing partnership in All Black history.
Interestingly these changes will also lead to the least experienced centre pairing in a Bledisloe match for the Kiwis. Could Kurtley Beale look to exploit this inexperience?
All Blacks
15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Waisake Naholo, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe MoodyReplacements: 16 Nathan Harris, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Ofa Tuungafasi, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
Wallabies
15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott SioReplacements: 16 Folau Faingaa, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Matt Toomua, 23 Tom Banks
Understandably, all the talk this week has been about what the Wallabies need to do differently.
Israel Folau is a big loss although interestingly he didn’t feature that much in Game 1.
In the series against Ireland, Folau presented a threat at the restart as much as in attack and it was strange that they didn’t use that more against the All Blacks last week.
But with that option now off the table it does mean that the rest of the back line are going to have to step up and execute perfectly.
A big game is needed from Bernard Foley and Beale – these are the two players who hold the keys to scoring the big points but they will need the other players around them giving them options and distracting defenders.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
Of course though, the backs will need clean, fast ball from a forwards pack that is going… well… forwards.
This all starts with the set piece and you’d expect that after the horrors of Sydney, the Wallabies pack will put in a far better performance.
It’s a shame that they are having to spend a week before such an important game to rebuild their line out but if they can get back to solid standards then that will be a huge improvement.
The fact that Taniela Tupou won’t be fit is a big shame – the impact he has in that final 20 to 30 minutes is impressive.
It would be easy to focus too much time on the set piece this week and believe that if the Wallabies can fix that, then we’ll see a much more competitive 80 minutes.
But the reality is that there are some other key areas where the Aussies will need to step up their game. One is the quality of execution in attack.
In Sydney there were instances that highlighted that Stephen Larkham and his backs still have work to do to be a ruthless machine.
Planned moves not only didn’t penetrate the defence but they weren’t even completed as balls were dropped and possession given away.
The best example of this was when Haylett-Petty dropped a pass mid move in the 52nd minute, Beauden Barrett did his impression of Lionel Messi and scored against the flow of play.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
It’ll be interesting to see how Michael Hooper responds as a leader. In Game 1 he was off the pace in that second half and couldn’t have the impact his team needed.
Beyond that though, there are questions about the way he communicates with referees. In the first half in Sydney he complained to Jaco Peyper that the All Blacks had maliciously killed two try scoring chances for his side.
But the way in which he did it came across as a teenager whining about how life was so unfair.
He’d have been better off making his case to Peyper and then when he saw that the ref was only giving a penalty, he could have asked a leading question like “So next time this happens will it be a yellow do you think sir?”
He’s a talismanic leader in terms of effort but he needs to sharpen up the way he creates that bit of favour with officials.
There was much talked about the impressive Wallabies defence in the first match.
While they were much better in that first half than previous performances, it’s worth noting that across the 80 minutes they missed almost 25 per cent of their tackles.
That’s poor and they have to add this to the growing to-do list before the second game in Eden Park.
This isn’t meant to sound all doom and gloom. The Wallabies are not a bad side and they do have great talent dotted throughout their team.
However they also do have that capacity to play badly and what fans are looking for is for them to reduce that gap between their best and their worst performances.
It’s too soon to say that this is a make or break game for Cheika but a big beating in Eden Park will mean that the Aussies have won just one game in seven and that’s hardly the form of a team challenging for the World Cup.
Prediction
The Wallabies are going to be better this weekend and they will be desperate to put in a better performance than game one.
But even with a big improvement beating the All Blacks at Eden Park would be a very difficult challenge for any side and it’s impossible to see it happening this time.
New Zealand to win by 15 points.
amband
Roar Rookie
Cheika should remember how Randwick played and to it that way. There should be a couple of changed. Phipps should start The game in Australia has been taken over by corporates who run it for themselves rather than sponsor it. They appointed a New Zealand CEO who failed at a rugby league side. Administration full of imbeciles
amband
Roar Rookie
Beale and Genia can't tackle. Genia should be replaced and made reserve. There are a couple of problems with the cattle
amband
Roar Rookie
why blame Cheika alone. Selectors too
freddieeffer
Guest
Yep. Can't argue with that. Many Aussies, right or wrong, open their mouth before the brain is engaged. It's the old 'shoot first, ask questions later.' As well, diplomacy is not their strong card. There is a good side to that in some instances, but there's also a strong negative in others, as you have identified. I'm not very optimistic with improving the success rate for the remainder of this years games.
ForwardsWinMatches
Guest
Ok, let me rephrase - Hooper to bench. He’s the only guy who’s played 7 for 5 years!
freddieeffer
Guest
kristaylor, I agree totally with your point with Deans; it was appalling non-leadership from above him that permitted it to unfold the way it did. It should have been nipped in the bud by some strong authoritative leadership, but it wasn't; plus, it was 'allowed' to fester and it got out of hand. "Best efforts" or not, the Wallabies have continually been under-performing for many years now. Out-coached, out-skilled, out-smarted, out everything. It's pretty hard to cop. As my other post suggested, there's an awful lot of 'behind the scenes silly-buggers' going on that impedes the ' who and what' that takes place on the field. Eg look at Cheika's selections of his favourites from the Waratah's. Plenty of astute observers see that, don't agree with it, and voice their objections to it. They don't/can't 'support' what's going on.
kristaylor
Guest
I agree with many things you've said. However, I don't see fans of many other sporting nations in the world with such passionate attacks on players like one of Australia's best, M.Hooper. The guy is a machine and you national captain, recognised as one of the best players in the world and arguably Australia's best player. Yet the way he's often treated... Only English football players get it worse in media and lack of support imo. That too is due to entitlement issues imo. So I agree that Aus needs to do better, it's trying and progressing. The team does well, all things considered. 90% of the harsh criticism is unjustified and misguided imo. I hope Australians are prepared for a rough year because SA, Arg, Ire, NZ, Eng, Fiji, Wal and Fra is a tough year. They've lost 75% so far and I'm picking SA, Eng and NZ to beat Aus at least 4 from 5. Imo, if they win more than 5 from 14 they've done well from here. 50% in 2018 will be a success. It will mean they've won 6 of the next 9. To finished 2018 in the top 4 is good and what we should hope for.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
LOL!!!
kristaylor
Guest
Link was criticised. I think it was because he had lost the players. Had a poor win/loss ratio after the public had been promised otherwise and was doing odd things like throwing players under the bus and spending halftime our on the park. He deserved criticism for some of these things imo but the way his personal life was questioned was terrible. I feel that there are factions in Aus rugby. I feel that Queensland often goes against rugby in Australia due to imagined bias against it. I feel that although McKenzie was not a QLDer, was actually more of a NSW man, QLDers adopted him as one of theirs and claimed that a Victorian who played and coached in NSW was being attacked by an anti-QLD faction. It was false. It may be the case that QLDers supported McKenzie more because of their misguided assumption that McKenzie was somehow now a QLDer, part of their faction, it may also be true that the Reds players felt more loyalty towards their club coach. However, imo, it was not about wanting "their man" if you are implying NSW wanted Cheika because he coached a team that McKenzie played for over 9 seasons and coached for 5 years.
eeds
Roar Rookie
Personally hoping the wallabies catch white line fever before sportstragic does...
Melburnian
Roar Pro
If you look at Hansen's record coaching Wales, his only wins over T1 opposition were against Italy and Scotland. Hansen's a good coach with the best players in the world at his disposal now. Connor O'Shea's tactics with Italy confused the heck out of the English for 40' a couple of years back - not contesting the rucks etc. but his side still go beaten. So the coach can make a difference but you have to have quality players.
kristaylor
Guest
"Unless alternatives prove worse" They have. Where have you been over the last 5 years?
kristaylor
Guest
Dean's was not just criticised. He was attacked by the mob in one of the most pathetic "burn the witch" episodes in Australian rugby history. In Dean's last full year as coach, 2012, he managed 60% win rate with a heavily injury hit squad. Just to give you an idea, in 2012: Boks 58% Eng 50% Fra 60% Ire 30% Wal 41% Arg 25% Aus 60% Yet the Aus rugby public attacked Dean's to the point of slander. They took their pitchforks and wanted mob justice. Well they got 50% since and continue to self harm and damage rugby in this country. I heard that Australia was a country where union was considered a private school sport. Coming from NZ I found that odd, but I had no idea of the way the Australia rugby public attacked and even hated its own team and players despite the players/coaches best efforts. It's a shame, and I hope generational change will help Australians learn to get behind their team and support as opposed to how, all too often, the rugby community gets behind rugby to stab it in the back, not support it. Then we will see how support helps and what we have now does not help, it's damages.
Pinetree
Guest
Collecting, not complying, Auto-Correct...
freddieeffer
Guest
Unless the Jekyll and Hyde alter-ego of the Wallaby turns up tonight, it will be a record AB win of very large proportions. If that's the case, you guys are being conservative.
ForwardsWinMatches
Guest
Ok Peter, since you asked, I’ll step up and offer my services to coach. Will do it for less than Cheika. You can be my stats adviser and Fionn to challenge my selections as a counter-balance. Would lead to some interesting discussion over a glass of red. A difficult first up discussion with Hoops but after that we’ll be ok. No more Pooper - unless alternative options prove worse. A few handy o/s players brought back. Not that hard.
Pinetree
Guest
Good on ya Moa, stay on that edge! I am usually more cautious too, but when I was complying the stats together on past results, it possibly skewed by perception of a closer match than last week. upsets seem to happen when I least expect it though!....which I don't expect tonight....
Treen
Guest
For me the fittest team won in the end
moa
Guest
I will go out on a limb and say 20+ too Piney. I'm usually fat too cautious to tempt fate but feel like living on the edge a bit today!
Pinetree
Guest
"So if the switched the coaching staff between the AB’s and the Wallabies, how much of a difference do you reckon it would make?" It would close the difference up, but unless you get the pathways below right in the coaching departments and structure, basic skill development etc, you will still have the problem of players having delayed development in Aus, in comparison to the NZ system, so just changing coaching can only reach so far without the support underneath.