Is this the sound of Vettel cracking?

By Michael Lamonato / Expert

Ferrari’s Italian dream was alive for all of about 35 seconds. Then it became a nightmare.

For the first time in 18 years, Ferrari’s scarlet machines filled the front row of the grid and pole-sitter Kimi Raikkonen and championship contender Sebastian Vettel were promising to deliver the team’s first win on home soil since 2010.

The famous Italian tifosi had good reason to believe victory was in the offing — Ferrari had confirmed at Monza, just as it did in Belgium last weekend and in Hungary, Germany and Britain in July, that it possessed the fastest car.

This was certainly true at the so-called Temple of Speed. Monza’s high-speed layout rewards engine power, and Ferrari’s power unit pumps out more horsepower than any other. Not over a single lap nor during race simulations did Mercedes have an answer to the Scuderia’s blistering pace.

A clean getaway was all Raikkonen and Vettel needed to control the race. They got it — but for only four corners.

Raikkonen led Vettel and Hamilton into the roggia chicane. Vettel had a look down Raikkonen’s inside but in doing so opened the door to Hamilton, who swept around his outside into the left-hander.

The Briton left his rival room, but Vettel, under pressure and lacking downforce behind Raikkonen, drifted wide into the side of the Mercedes. He spun off the track and dropped to 18th, well out of victory contention.

Worse still was that Vettel had handed Mercedes a decisive two-to-one strategic advantage. After Raikkonen and Hamilton had made their pit stops, Mercedes used Valtteri Bottas to obstruct Kimi long enough to cook his tyres, making him easy meat for Lewis on lap 45.

Hamilton recorded a potentially title-defining victory with a career-best drive; Ferrari earnt itself another defeat by way of driver error.

Lewis Hamilton celebrates. (Photo: Mercedes AMG Petronas)

Consider the championship picture. Hamilton has a comfortable 30-point cushion in the drivers’ standings and Mercedes commands a 25-point advantage in the constructor’s title.

Now consider the points Sebastian Vettel has thrown away in error.

In Azerbaijan, a late-race lunge on then-leader Bottas ended in a lock-up that dropped him to fifth — which became fourth when Bottas retired shortly afterwards with puncture damage. Hamilton inherited a win that would have fallen to Sebastian, costing the Ferrari driver 13 points.

In France, Vettel started third but hit second-placed Bottas at the first turn, sending both spiralling to the back of the grid. The German finished fifth when he should’ve finished third, costing himself five points.

In Austria, he qualified third but was demoted three places for needlessly blocking Carlos Sainz during qualifying. Mercedes locked out the front row, but both cars retired. Early-lap skirmishes aside, Vettel’s penalty cost him a potential victory, worth ten points on his third-place finish.

Vettel’s German Grand Prix crash in the rain while dominating the race, costing 25 points, was his most grievous error, made all the more galling by the fact he had a comfortable buffer with which to make it to the finish in the slippery conditions.

At Ferrari’s home race Vettel compounded his errors. His strong pace meant he finished just 16 seconds off the race lead, making it no stretch to imagine him cruising to victory had he not hit Hamilton. Being generous, second place and an additional six points certainly went begging.

The Italian Grand Prix brought Vettel’s lost points total to an embarrassing 59 points — in other words, enough to almost completely reverse his current 30-point deficit.

Undoubtedly Ferrari’s unusual unwillingness to favour Vettel over Raikkonen in qualifying, gifting the Finn a powerful slipstream on both runs that might otherwise have delivered Vettel pole position, played a part, but the numbers are regardless damning.

Equipped with F1’s fastest car, even if by only a fine margin, Vettel should be putting Hamilton and Mercedes to the sword, but mistake after mistake is handing the reigning world champion the advantage again and again.

It’s all adding up to form an uncomfortable question: can Vettel handle the pressure to lead Ferrari to the championship?

Time and again, counting back even to last season, Vettel has wilted under strain applied by Hamilton and Mercedes. Now, in 2018, the pressure has stepped up markedly, and Ferrari and Mercedes are pushing each other to such dizzying heights that even the smallest of mistakes is proving immensely costly.

“You cannot beat Lewis Hamilton in the championship by making so many mistakes,” Nico Rosberg told Sky Sports F1 — and he’d know, having overcome the Briton in 2016. “These are the opportunities you need to use against Lewis and he just doesn’t use them.”

Hamilton is soaking up the chance to fight as the underdog and Vettel has been caught without a reply.

Hanging heavy over Ferrari now will be the spectre of its championship collapse this time last year, beginning with defeat at Monza, continuing with a spectacular first-lap crash in Singapore and concluding with technical problems in Malaysia and Japan. It’s again this passage of races that will decide whether Vettel still has a role to play in the 2018 championship.

And there’s a final twist in this potentially sorry tale, with rumour rife in Monza that Ferrari was poised to announce Charles Leclerc as Kimi Raikkonen’s replacement, only for the team to delay once Kimi scored pole.

Leclerc would be in only his sophomore-season next year, but the impact of his Ferrari promotion shouldn’t be underestimated. If Vettel fails to convert his car advantage into a title this year, he faces the very real prospect of contending against internal competition to get the job done in 2019.

It’s no understatement, then, to say that Vettel’s Ferrari legacy could be decided across the next seven races.

How quickly the dream has turned into a nightmare.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2018-09-10T02:44:26+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


Sure, Hamilton had some high-profile reliability problems, but the two cars were obviously as quick as each other. What made the difference was that Hamilton failed to turn up to the races before the Spanish Grand Prix when a win at only one of those races would've decided the title in his favour. You could also consider his head-down response in Japan to his Malaysian engine failure also contributed. Undeniable is that Hamilton had the tools to get the job done against Rosberg in 2016 but erred in not using them. Unreliability is unavoidable; driver error is not. That lost him the title. Certainly you're right about last year's relative performance levels. Mercedes was theoretically faster but struggled to operate at its maximum; Ferrari was consistent and scored regularly, which left them in about the same place over the course of a season.

2018-09-07T14:09:23+00:00

Buffy

Guest


"the difference between Vettel potentially losing to Hamilton and Hamilton losing to Rosberg is that Rosberg had the same car," Rosberg had a better car than Hamilton in 2016. Hamilton's car was extremely unreliable- more engine problems for Hamilton in 2016 than the entire field of drivers with Merc engines combined. It was estimated that Hamilton lost approx 60 points to poor mechanical reliability, while Rosberg lost hardly any. This was exacerbated by the fact that the Merc cars of 2016 were ultra dominant. This meant that only Rosberg had a car strong enough to capitalise on Hamilton's reliability woes. Instead of the points being split between multiple drivers, Rosberg would be the only inheritor. I would say the Ferrari car of 2017 was also on a par with the Merc car of 2017 too. Hamilton simply made less mistakes & was more consistent.And, as i've posted before, many within the industry actually stated the Ferrari was the better car in 2017 -kinder on tyres, more workable operating window, consistent on all track types, less of a "diva"..

2018-09-06T03:40:31+00:00

Doug

Guest


Well summarised.

AUTHOR

2018-09-05T01:19:37+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


The real qualifying error for Ferrari was that Vettel and Raikkonen were sent out too late for Vettel to pick up Hamilton's slipstream. Vettel apparently took no issue with Raikkonen going out second because they've been taking it on turn all year — although I think it would be fair to argue that, given the value of the slipstream at Monza and given the championship standings, Vettel should've been preferenced in the first place. Maybe he was always going to have a go early, but it was his mistake to do so. He's faster than Raikkonen so could easily have managed something around the pit stop window, or at least have had a go once they edged a little clear of Hamilton. The difference between Vettel potentially losing to Hamilton and Hamilton losing to Rosberg is that Rosberg had the same car, so it's not exactly a like-for-like comparison.

AUTHOR

2018-09-05T01:16:00+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


The problem is that Vettel left the racing line, which allowed Hamilton to pull well alongside him on the racing line in the braking zone. Once that happened — and indeed once Hamilton nosed ahead — it was up to Vettel to avoid the accident. Truthfully the crash was the result of the error Vettel made on the run down to the corner. It was risky by Hamilton — like you say, the defending car is liable to make contact — but he was ahead on the racing line, so he was in the right.

AUTHOR

2018-09-05T00:58:20+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


I think it's fair enough to say that with seven races to go, the title is still open, but certainly Vettel's up against it now. He doesn't strike me as a confidence driver, though; I think he's more affected by how the team is working internally. If the team is in dysfunction, he becomes less competitive, and I think his 2016 season is an indicator of this. The question is: is his point loss this season down to over-ambition, an inability to handle on-track pressure, a response to internal problems? I think Christian Horner recently alluded to a theory that Vettel was attempting to compensate for internal Ferrari errors, which I found interesting.

AUTHOR

2018-09-04T23:50:49+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


Bang on. It surely would've been the same situation as Monaco last year, with Ferrari quietly switching the too — and even if they didn't, second place would still have closed the championship deficit to 14 points.

AUTHOR

2018-09-04T23:49:50+00:00

Michael Lamonato

Expert


I think that's fair, and we got a very strong hint of that last season too, particularly in Singapore. Maybe it stems from Vettel underestimating Hamilton's focus or, at least this season, overestimating Ferrari's pace advantage and therefore the speed at which he can recover lost ground.

2018-09-04T22:29:56+00:00

Simoc

Guest


More nonsense I reckon. It was bad management by Ferrari in qualifying having Vettel towing Raikkonen and not vice versa. In the race he was always going to have a go early. Just good driving by Hamilton to put his car there. While Ferrari s car has everyone saying it is the fastest now, Mercedes has had easily the best car throughout Hamiltons reign and he still managed to lose a WDC to Rosberg. Hamilton has the supreme confidence at the moment and is driving very well.

2018-09-04T14:57:40+00:00

frozennorth

Guest


I am the last to defend Vettel but that chicane is not a passing zone on the outside, it left Vettel nowhere to go, I know he push a tad off the apex but this chicane, the way it's designed, you cannot hug the apex from the inside line, it's near impossible. I'd never place my car where Hamilton did and not expect to be hit.

2018-09-04T07:09:57+00:00

Caractacus

Guest


Yes, Vettel has made mistakes but there's a long way to go and he's still in the faster car so I wouldn't write him off just yet. What I would say is that Vettel's driving under pressure is now being questioned and that in itself puts him under even more pressure. If the media are constantly bringing up your mistakes and telling you how many championship points you've lost you have to be very confident in your ability to not let it affect you......which having won four titles he should still be but we're all human.

2018-09-04T01:40:00+00:00

Tlux

Guest


Vettel blew it! All he needed to do was follow Kimi around til the pit stops and wait for the team to give him the better strategy. The two of them could have easily held off Hamilton, but instead, Mercedes were able to squeeze Kimi and steal the win. Stupid and impatient by Seb. Hamilton's championship to lose now.

2018-09-04T01:27:01+00:00

Bayden Westerweller

Roar Guru


Vettel's campaign actually bares a strong resemblance to 2010, when he continually tripped over himself, yet having multiple title rivals meant that he never had to move mountains to remain in contention. This time though, he has one rival who has been nearly flawless, and even when Hamilton is having an off weekend, he still does enough to maintain the pressure. Vettel seems to be unable to settle for a lost immediate battle in the context of the war and more often than not, and his refusal to retreat and minimise his losses whilst Hamilton claims maximum points means his task in on the verge of becoming insurmountable even if the Briton isn't winning every race.

2018-09-03T23:55:57+00:00

bryn

Guest


Vettel has always been a pushy driver ask any of his now and former team mates, now red bull are pushy another 'vettel' through their ranks and is impetous the same.

2018-09-03T19:41:10+00:00

bill

Roar Rookie


Good write up.

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