If the rule of thumb is that AFLW teams need to improve by twenty percent each year just to hold steady with the competition, then it’s hard to make a case that Brisbane could reach a third Grand Final in a row.
Brisbane lost a lot of players in the expansion — defenders Nicole Hildebrand and Tahlia Randall, and midfielders Jamie Stanton, Brit Gibson and Kaitlyn Ashmore. Worse yet, teenage gun Sophie Conway will miss the season with a knee injury.
And while the vaunted Queensland junior talent pool is impressive, this year’s Queensland draft was perhaps the calm before the storm.
Most of Queensland’s best players in the U18 junior championships were bottom agers, and next year’s crop is going to be dazzling, leaving this year’s pickings comparatively slim.
I’ll confess I’d never heard of Paige Parker before, but her highlights package on the Lions’ homepage is eye-opening, showing a next-level athlete who can run rings around most others. Her skills, however, still appear a work in progress.
The Lions took Natalie Grider with their second pick — a solid defender who also plays midfield, and the 188 centimetre Lauren Bella with pick four, who should provide some much-needed support for Sharni Webb in the ruck.
But it was pick three that should make the biggest difference for the Lions this year. McKenzie Dowrick is comfortably a top-five player in this year’s national draft, and possibly top-three.
She’s at the Lions because her best mate growing up in the little Western Australian mining town of Kambalda was Lions defender Arianna Clarke.
In her younger years, Dowrick obtained a special permission to play boys’ football in the U16s due to the lack of opportunities for girls in Kambalda.
Watching her play, it’s not surprising she could manage it — she’s got a massive left boot, clean hands, and that unhurried, ‘all the time in the world’ way of playing that all the best players have.
Whether the Lions choose to play her at half-back or on a wing, there’s no doubt she’ll have a big impact in her first season.
But this question of positions illustrates the Lions’ other big problem — it seems that every second player in the team is a defender.
Kate Lutkins, Sam Virgo and Leah Kaslar between them make a formidable defensive trio, and let’s say Arianna Clarke, Shannon Campbell and Paige Parker get a start also.
Well Breanna Koenen and Megan Hunt are listed as defenders too, so is Nat Grider and new draftee Tori Groves-Little, while the only recognised forwards are Sabrina Frederick-Traub, Jess Weutschner and Bella Ayre.
Sure, defenders can be turned into forwards, but it doesn’t always work.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Midfielders can also go forward and kick goals, but this year the Lions are looking a little thin there also — Emma Zielke and Emily Bates are reliable A-grade mids, though still not quite the quality of the league’s biggest guns, and Ally Anderson made big strides last year as well.
But without Jamie Stanton, the Lions’ midfield stocks have gone backward at a time when the rest of the league is going forward.
Dowrick could make a difference, but for all her strengths, contested possession isn’t necessarily amongst them.
This year the Lions still have a very good team, but many others have improved much more than they have.
Next year a huge batch of young talent will emerge from the Queensland system, but Lions fans will likely have to endure the frustration of watching most of them head to the Gold Coast.
Possibly for the Brisbane Lions, their best chance of winning a premiership lies behind them.
Prediction: Sixth.
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TWLS
Guest
These are more observation type comments. Always remember it was the great surge in QLD Womens footy 3 years ago that attracted the eye of the AFL CEO that in part brought fwd the AFLW to 2016. The AFLW owes a bit to AFL QLD. As regards NSW Womens footy which I keep an eye on, is going through a growth spurt ATM, from a low base. The Sydney Womens private schools (GPS Type) now into their second season with a doubling of teams to 28 for their 2019 first term comps and that group will morph into a Statewide comp eventually. The Womens league at Newcastle/Hunter/Central Coast grew from zero to 18 teams in 3 seasons. The AFL leagues in the north of NSW have added womens teams for the first time this year. The Sydney Womens League expanded again this year to a doubling of teams from 3 years ago. However down in Southern NSW there is a problem. They are just starting Womens Comps which is good. But the bad news - There are 53 Mens Clubs in that region without Womens teams only Netball teams attached as of this season We know the historical/political reasons for that which over time will lose their influence, and when those Clubs include our Womens game, that will be a lot of players to add to the stats. We await the 2018 NSW Womens participation figures with interest.
Joel Shepherd
Roar Guru
They were my most accurate prediction last year -- losers in the GF. So I can't be accused of systemic anti-Brisbane bias at least!
TomC
Roar Guru
Thanks Joel. As always, it's very interesting to get your perspective on these things. Hopefully the Lions surprise us over the next couple of years.
Joel Shepherd
Roar Guru
That's possible, but WA has a unique problem with the WAWFL, which seems to be run so badly that the stench drives players away in droves. I haven't heard anything about the Queensland competition having those problems, and as the local talent pool gets stronger, that competition will become better as well. Also, GWS shows that non-traditional AFL states can land lots of big name players from other states (or countries) if they try. And the Lions haven't done too poorly there, with Fredrick -Traub, Bella Ayre, Nat Exon, McKenzie Dowrick and Jess Wuetschner (Tasmania and then East Fremantle). Also, the Lions have Craig Starcevich, and the importance of a good coach in drawing new recruits can't be overstated.
Eden
Guest
They're my pick for premiers after two years as runners-up (and I'm a Carlton supporter). All the clubs have been hit by the expansion - my read was they weren't hit as bad as some of the Victorian clubs. Of course in such a short season ladder placement isn't as predictive as in a longer one, so it's really anyone's game.
TomC
Roar Guru
My suspicion though is that Queensland will need to produce more than its fair share to get its fair share. Victoria tends to draw athletes from other states; Katie Brennan and Tayla Harris both moved to Melbourne from Brisbane. It's a bigger city with more opportunities, and of course it has the VFLW. If the Lions and the Suns find themselves struggling in the AFLW as in the AFL, then they'll probably have trouble recruiting and retaining players just as they do in the AFL. Fremantle seem to be suffering even more from not being able to retain its best local talent, so it might be even worse in Western Australia from 2020.
Joel Shepherd
Roar Guru
I think both Queensland teams will struggle for a couple of seasons after Gold Coast enter, but after that they'll be fine. Next year's Queensland draft will be amazing, there are about five or six players who'll be stars -- even if most of them go to Gold Coast, AFLW contracts still only last for one year and there will be a lot of back and forth evening things out pretty quickly. Plus Gold Coast will only get preferential access to the draft for one or maybe two seasons, then you'll have two Queensland teams sitting atop a talent gold mine... assuming the Queensland drafts just keep getting stronger, as logically they should. Compared to Victoria, where I reckon all the remaining AFL teams will get women's sides sooner rather than later, so ten teams fighting for talent -- and there's a lot more in Victoria, certainly, but divided by ten? WA's talent pool is sluggish by comparison, and in SA it's too early to tell, and NSW/ACT has its usual problems with AFL, so I think it's too early for Queenslanders to start panicking about the future.
Joel Shepherd
Roar Guru
One improvement this season is the semi-finals -- last season it all just came down to luck and percentages, 7 rounds wasn't enough to determine who really deserved to be in the GF, but this year you'll at least have the best four playing off and making it inarguable. So if the Lions or any team can make the final four, they've got a chance and it won't just come down to 'flip a coin'. But I don't really see any soft draws this season -- Brisbane get GWS in Brisbane for round one, and if I'm GWS I'm almost expecting to win that (their midfield is brutal this year). If the Lions can get that one, plus Freo in Freo, I'll start believing.
TomC
Roar Guru
I'm nervous that the AFL has squandered an opportunity to create a strong AFLW team in Queensland. The Lions have been hit hard by the first round of expansion and will be hit harder again the following season. Two successful years seem to have generated quite a lot of local support built on a pretty solid base for women's footy in South East Queensland, in spite of issues with venues and the hopelessness of the men's teams. I doubt though Queensland fans would have much patience for two more struggling Aussie Rules teams, if that's what we end up with. So it's pretty important that the Lions have another successful season. Losing consecutive grand finals by a goal and falling to sixth would be a disaster ahead of the introduction of the Suns. I don't really have the knowledge of other sides to question Joel's prediction, but I guess the one thing I'd say is that the Lions have always been heavily reliant on their backline and it's generally worked out okay.
Jorge of Brisvegas
Roar Rookie
This seems a good analysis. I was keen to see what would be said after back to back years of “almost” ultimate success. It is nice to hear about Qld’s bumper crop of junior talent but demoralizing that it will be very Sunny, not with alot of Pride. The fact Brisbane’s side was gutted by the expansion teams ( read North Melbourne)the year after losing one of the most exciting and marketable forwards in the game for the next decade, was depressing. Craig Starcrvich is a good coach and the Lions play contested team football consistently well but it appears we are exchanging A grade players for B grade players over the past two seasons. The first season, we were clearly the best side but various machinations including not playing the final at home, last minute decision etc etc and a truly BOG performance by a world class athlete at her prime MVP, Erin Phillips , beat us on day. Last year we scraped into final and although valiant, it was clear, Bulldogs had too much talent and belief on day when conditions suited their game style. This was off the back of some great individual and team performances to get that far and come so close...... again. This year I think we may have a softer draw though, which if the girls can get some early wins, can take us into the top 4 which, as they have proven consistently in big games that Brisbane are coached well and their style is finals worthy. The key games for the Lion’s season is rounds 3 & 4 against Demons and Bulldogs. If we can come away 1-1 or even 2-0 from those encounters, we are a long way to being in the top 2 in our pool, if we get a home pre lim, anything is possible. I think the Lions can easily finish 3 to 6, but barring major injury to crucial players, if we are 3-1 after round 4 then the expectations go higher. CARN Lions !