The bad news coming out of the first two rounds of Super Rugby matches is that most of the senior Waratahs are out of form and should be facing the sack from the Wallabies World Cup squad.
The good news is that there are many players from the other Australian Super Rugby squads who can and should be brought in to the Wallabies to take their place.
This bad news, good news dilemma was neatly summed up by a comment made by REALIST on The Roar following the Queensland Reds’ narrow defeat by the Highlanders at Dunedin and the Waratahs depressing win (just) over the Sunwolves in Japan: “I didn’t think that Michael Cheika will be pleased at all. Not a good look for him when Scott-Young, Kerevi, Stewart and Petaia comprehensively outplayed Hanigan, Phipps, Folau, Beale, and AAC.”
Nick Phipps actually was not playing, but the sense of the comment was clear. The Waratahs stars, although I would leave Israel Folau out of this discussion, are showing their age.
Their time seems to be up as far as international rugby is concerned.
This perception seems to be especially relevant when a host of younger and even some older players not in the Wallabies starting squad in 2018 are showing the sort of form that could help lift the team out of last season’s doldrums.
Let’s look, to begin with, at the Wallabies incumbent No.10, Bernard Foley, the long term Waratahs stalwart.
Time has caught up with him. His sharpness off the mark, his tricky footwork, the eye for the gap, even his talent for kicking goals are absent this year.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The Iceman is not delivering.
Rugby, like most contact sports, is an unforgiving endeavour. Players get to a certain age, endure a certain number of hits and their flexibility and speed taper off.
Even the best of them just don’t have the qualities that made them special players any more.
It seems to me Foley has reached this point.
Luckily, though, the other starting No. 10s in the Australian franchises – Quade Cooper (the Rebels), Christian Lealiifano (the Brumbies) and Hamish Stewart (the Reds) – are showing superior form.
And there is Matt Toomua, currently in England, still to come back to Australia to make his claim for the Wallabies No.10 jersey.
So Foley is no longer an inevitable nor an obvious selection.
Another important take-out from the Highlanders 36 – Reds 31 thriller was the brilliant form of the Reds centre pairing Samu Kerevi and Jordan Petaia.
I know that Petaia is still young enough to play for the Australian under-20s side. But his game against a defensively sound Highlanders side was sensational.
If you are good enough you are old enough is a sound precept where exceptional talent is concerned, and Petaia is an exceptional talent. He is the X-factor player that the Wallabies need to lift them from their current mediocrity.
(AAP Image/Albert Perez)
Petaia ran for 100m out of the 455m that the Reds ran in total!
His defence was solid, too. On attack and defence he also seemed to have plenty of time, a sign of a very good player.
Watching him run through gaps with speed and balance, I was reminded of the young Jason Little. This is a big call but every now and again a young player plays so brilliantly that you are forced to acknowledge his talent and his readiness to play at the highest level.
For most of the Cheika years, the Wallabies have lack an outside centre who can break the line with real, blazing speed.
The Kerevi-Petaia partnership could be the answer to the mid-field problems of too many playmakers and not enough play-creators in the national side.
The Reds also put out a pack that destroyed the lineout of the Highlanders and, additionally, more than held their own in the scrums.
Substitute the Queensland equivalents for the Waratahs in the Wallabies pack and add in some bruisers from the Brumbies and the Rebels – and the Australian pack will become the formidable beast it needs to be to win big tournaments.
The Reds, of course, did not win.
To really establish their credentials as must-pick Wallabies, the Reds stars have to start forcing victories, even against such formidable challenges as next week’s contest against the rampant Crusaders at Brisbane.
The Brumbies showed the way for the Australian franchises in 2019 with their terrific 54-17 victory over the Chiefs at Canberra. Admittedly, it was a home match. But this was only the second victory by an Australian Super Rugby side over a New Zealand opponent in 42 contests.
(Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)
Moreover, the 33 points the Brumbies scored in the first half against the Chiefs equalled the same number of points the Brumbies scored in the first half against the Crusaders in the 2004 Super Rugby final.
What stood out for me was the combination of Brumbies ruthlessness in the pack, hard-shouldered running by forwards and backs and sheer pace of some of the backs, especially Tom Banks.
I would love to see Banks playing at fullback for the Wallabies. He is the nearest thing to Chris Latham we’ve seen in Australian rugby since that great player retired.
The main problem for the Wallabies in the last couple of years is the lack of players who can break a game open with their searing pace. Banks has this, as does Petaia.
This brings us to the Folau issue and the question of where he should be played in the backline.
I will say this because it challenges the conventional wisdom in Australian rugby: Folau’s best position is not fullback.
(Photo by Brook Mitchell/Getty Images)
He is a wonderful runner and leaper for the ball. But he is, essentially, a try-scorer rather than an all-round rugby player.
His lack of skills as a fullback are exposed when his game is compared with that of Ben Smith.
Smith involves himself, especially towards the end of the game, with playing at first receiver, doing hit-ups, taking the ball up through the middle from high kicks and linking up with forwards or backs who have made a break.
You rarely see Folau doing any of these things. This is why he should be played on the wing to exploit his phenomenal running power and penchant for scoring tries.
Robbie Deans, when he coached the Wallabies, used Folau to great effect as a winger.
For the Waratahs and the Wallabies Michael Cheika has tended to use Folau as a fullback.
I think Deans, a good selector unlike Cheika, was right.
Imagine how devastating a Wallabies backline would be with the Reds centres, Folau on one wing and Banks roaring through the mid-field as he did so spectacularly for the Brumbies against the Chiefs.
Now all this brings us to an important interview that Michael O’Connor gave to the rugby media after he was recently appointed by Rugby Australia as a Wallabies selector.
He would give, O’Connor told reporters, ‘serious thought’ to playing David Pocock at No.7 for the World Cup instead of Michael Hooper.
About time, I would say.
Rugby history has shown that playing two No.7s just does not work. The exception is, perhaps, towards the end of a match when desperate defence is needed by a side to hold on to a small lead.
The George Smith-Phil Waugh combination did not work, just as the Richie McCaw-Matt Todd did not work.
Playing Pocock solely as a No.7 would allow the Wallabies to play another bigger and more powerful flanker and a similarly big and tough No.8.
David Pocock even looks like a number seven. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
In other words, the Wallaby back row would be balanced. It would have ‘shape,’ the concept that Alan Jones, an excellent selector, always insists is key to the selection of winning rugby sides.
As O’Connor noted from his time in 2006 and 2007 as a Wallaby selector: “We didn’t start Waughy because we had a couple of big, very effective backrowers in Cliffy Palu and Rocky Elsom. Hooper and Pocock are two of the best back-rowers in the game so we’re fortunate. To leave one off, I think, there’s always going to be an argument.”
And if this strategy is used for the Wallabies, as it should be, the selectors should look to the Reds, the Brumbies and the Rebels to supply the big Palu-like and Elsom-like loose forwards to support Pocock.
O’Connor also suggested that Quade Cooper, after his fine game for the Rebels against the Brumbies, still needed to fix ‘problematic areas’ in his game if he was to be given a Wallabies call-up.
This was also a shrewd call.
Lealiifano and Toomua (the two obvious successors to Foley), on the other hand, are strong tacklers.
Stewart, is, also. But he is probably a year or so off having the maturity, skills and insight to be the chief playmaker for the Wallabies.
The point about all this is that right now, about four years into taking over the Wallabies, Cheika has presided over the collapse of a side that played in the final of the 2015 World Cup.
A significant reason for this collapse is that Cheika has relied too much on senior players, most of them from the Waratahs, who reached their peak in 2015; or younger Waratahs players who just haven’t fulfilled expectations.
This process of de-Waratahing the Wallabies seems to me, after watching the first two rounds of the 2019 Super Rugby tournament, to be the key to creating a Wallabies side that can challenge England, Ireland, Wales, South Africa and New Zealand this year.
It should have started last year. But better late than never, however, seems to be the motto for Cheika following the dire season the Wallabies suffered in 2018.
QED
Roar Rookie
Fair play I will accept that. a Good reasonable comment. Though i would only add that Hung would not be in my 23.
PiratesRugby
Guest
No room for DHP? But can I just say that the selection of Tahs in the Wallabies has been a problem since the last RWC. Some of us here at the Roar predicted miserable failure if things didn’t change. Well, things didn’t change and here we are. We told you so.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes, I think we know all that, in a lot less words as well.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Simple: Blood a heap of young blokes that will perform in years to come because they won’t get you the immediate results you want but they will be a long term investment. Something that O’Connor and Johnson don’t need Cheika’s approval on because all 3 have been given equal pulling power and all it takes is a simple 2-1 vote on those NSW players getting the boot and the young guns getting a crack. So no, their jobs do not entail helping Cheika succeed, they entail selection and that’s it. Cheika will have to make do and lets be honest, 1/4 final exit for the Wallies is currently a certainty. Thing is Cheika is gone regardless, a baby could oust him post WC it will be that easy, hell I might even put my hand up for the top spot ahahha. However, O’Connor and Johnson will be vying for top spot once that happens and my only fear is the same power struggle that ruptured the reds coaching staff in 2016 will happen to the Wallabies in 2020 with no clear head coach or performance improvement. We won’t start to see consistently good games from the wallabies until 2021 when the national and super sides have had a chance to flush out the old and bring in the new.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
who cares? There is no way Australia is winning this world cup unless we buy it out. Ireland, NZ, SA, England now Wales all look much better contenders for the WC this year. I'd use this WC to blood some young guns and use it as preparation for 2023. Graymatter is on point with getting the young guys in as understudies...NOW! Limelight and all that other garbage is exactly that, garbage. If anything its better they learn how to deal with that side of pro sport young and having Thorn there not only as a guide but as leader by example, will go a long way in helping young guys like Stewart and Petaia. The only players that need to be handled carefully are the ones currently injured or coming out of an injury but I have faith in the Australian coaching staff to not rush these things and allow for players to fully recover before taking to the pitch again.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Same could be said about hearing the kiwis gloat about how their going about their business as top dogs. Remember the bigger you are, the harder you fall. As with the general trend here fans aren't as narrow sighted as some of our mainstream media might be and they see a general trend over the last 18 months that has shown some promise (i.e. Reds young guns under Thorn), O'connor and Johnson as selectors for the wallabies and the rebels continual improvement since their inception (and more so after the disbanding of the force) provides more than just 2/3 weeks of insight. Rather, the first 3 rounds have almost been a continuation of where we left off at the end of last year. Sure the crucial games are to come and anything can happen over the course of a season. So just like wrapping AB's in cotton wool for 2 weeks here and there, its no guarantee that they wont injure themselves before/during the crunch games or before/during the WC for that matter. Nothing is perfect and/or set in stone and taking a heap of precautions might inadvertently hinder the AB's...after all only the pirate looking witch at the helm of the ARU can see into the future and even then its bleak for her hahaha.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
I'm guessing, in NZ, a baby has to tick those boxes before his 3rd birthday before NZ selectors even give him a glance at the 10 spot or do they wait to 5? Do you see the facetious point I'm making? Don't count your chicken's before they have hatched and never write off a youngster before he's had the chance to prove himself.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Chickadee to be ousted after WC and ignored leading up to it. O'connor and Johnson will be the new coaching/selection panel after Cheika's ousting and quietly running things behind the scenes while Cheiks is still there. The ugly warthog at the helm of the ARU won't last long after Cheika's ousting either. I'm calling it now. The MEN of Australian rugby HAVE taken over the reigns regardless of what NSW or their puppets say and all of what I said WILL come to fruition in the early weeks of 2020. Australian rugby and the fans are frustrated at the corporate and managerial incompetence and consistent under-performing. I have seen the inevitable shake up barring down on RA for a years now and especially when that failed warthog from Rugby Leagues Bulldogs took over the ARU (although Kearns wasn't much of a 2nd option) and solidified in my mind when O'Connor and Johnson were thrown into the fray. And all this has eventuated months out from the world cup. This, to me, says...this is a last ditch effort from the old school Australian rugby stalwarts and die hards to try and reconcile something before the big event in Japan. Cheika and NSW's monopoly on Australian rugby is coming to an inevitable end. Lets hope, after the warthog CEO gets ousted, the new CEO re-instates the Western Force and disbands the Brumbies (due to having piss all fans and being a puss politician state)...i.e. play rugby somewhere where the fans have a spine and can help facilitate the game rather than rob it.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Why are we talking about Kepu (a.k.a Mr. knock on) and Slipper (Mr. collapse the scrum)? There is much better cattle than these two, even when you look at experience (and I mean super rugby experience not test…because we all know the selections for the wallabies squad have been rife with bias NSW under-performers). Sio, Faulkner, Ainsley (although I think he’s a kiwi) or even poach one of those Smith brothers from SA…we all know how those SA boys like to scrummage hahaha. Much better options than Kepu and Slipper. Plus Salakai-Loto and Arnold? Dempsey and Valentini? Cusack? Quite a few odd selections there but I’m sure @jameswm has his reasons… I had a lol at the last pick too winger > Muirhead after all the other comparisons, it’s not DHP or Falou but winger hahaha.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Current picks for the Wallabies: 1. T. Faulkner (Rebels) 2. A. Rangi (Rebels) 3. A. Alaalatoa (Brumbies) 4. A. Colman (Rebels) 5. M. Philip (Rebels) 6. C. Timu (Reds) 7. D. Pocock (Brumbies) 8. I. Naisarani (Rebels) 9. W. Ginea (Rebels) 10. Q. Cooper (Rebels) 11. I. Falou (Waratahs) 12. S. Kurevi (Reds) 13. R. Hodge (Rebels) 14. D. Haylett-Petty (Rebels) 15. T. Banks (Brumbies) 16. F. Fainga’a (Brumbies) 17. S. Sio (Brumbies) 18. T. Tupou (Reds) 19. I. Rodda (Reds) 20. R. Hardwick (Rebels) 21. M. Sorovi (Reds) 22. H. Stewart (Reds) 23. J. Maddocks (Rebels) My thinking for a young bench is simply "out with the old and in with the new". Give the young fella's a shot even if all they get out of it is the experience at a higher level. In other words, invest in the future rather than a "safe backup" or tribal NSW mates...it will pay off come the 2023 world cup and help lift the prospects in the immediate future too. Plus who knows. Picking players on their form might force those lackadaisical types to pull their heads out of their backsides and train like they want to win or get a spot in the side (rather than take it easy because they know they will get selected regardless....I'm looking at you Hooper, Foley and Phipps).
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Ryan, not an early call at all given RA's history? Really? I'm guessing you went to 'camp NSW indoctrination' and think Foley and the gang just need a few more bias games to go their way and they will be back to fine form...ignorance is bliss and more so given that this inevitable shake up has been coming since the last world cup.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
The Tah's are to Australian rugby what the Marsh brothers are to Australian cricket. A waste of space until proven otherwise. Given all the chances they have had over the years, it's now well overdue that NSW take a back seat. Like the author of the article said, not much to keep from NSW other than Falou and even then he MUST be on the wing. I, along with the rest of Australia, have seen/heard enough from Phipps, Foley, Hooper and NSW in general. Far as I'm concerned they can take a back seat now and let the real men of Australia get the job done.
Paddy
Roar Rookie
Great article! Your last sentence: It should have started last year. But better late than never, however, seems to be the motto for Cheika following the dire season the Wallabies suffered in 2018. Pretty much sums up the way I've felt for a long time...and it continued well before 2018, that's for sure.
Olly
Roar Rookie
But the stick needs a wizard to wield it :) Let's see what happens at 10 with this new selection process.
Olly
Roar Rookie
I guess it comes down to the 10 selection. Genia/Quade then I can see Banks at 15. Has a Latham feel about it, just need that blindside winger coming in. Foley at 10... All I have seen is a predictable attack, questionable game management and poor kicking.
gatesy
Roar Guru
The point is that it doesn't matter so much who gets the gig, as the fact that now we have 3 genuine contenders, and the Force haven't played any games yet, and they have Deegan, who is pretty handy.
gatesy
Roar Guru
Leave him at 15 and work out ways to get him hitting the line at speed, which the Brums did last week. Magic on a stick!
gatesy
Roar Guru
Competition is a funny thing, Fionn. Who knows? In past years, entitlement may have been stronger than competition, but this is World Cup year and we have 3 2nd year coaches and a 3rd year coach, who all seem to be figuring it out. I am very excited about 2019.
gatesy
Roar Guru
Didn't see the Qld game, so didn't see Sorovi, but Joey Powell didn't do too much wrong. McCaffery will be this year's bolter. Chance Peni could be in your mix, but let's see a bit more of him, first. Folau's best position is wing, and Banks must be the fullback. No 10 tussle will be a ripper.
gatesy
Roar Guru
Their best player (besides Folau) is Karmichael - a true reader of the game and bloody lucky to have him.