When long-serving coach Warren Gatland predicted Wales would win the Six Nations Grand Slam, rugby fans around the world laughed.
But the 55-year-old Kiwi had the last laugh as he chalked up a record third Slam among four Championships since he started in 2007 in what was very much a personal triumph.
The same can’t be said of Wales.
The boyos could only manage ten tries in the five games, sharing last place with Italy who couldn’t beat time, nor an opponent, in the 2019 edition.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Wales were last in defenders beaten on 69, topped by Scotland with 145, and France 140, also last in successful lineouts with 38, led by Ireland on 68, and last in line breaks with 29, England leading the way on 67.
Wales had to rely on 16 penalties to claim the Slam, twice as many as England, and 13 more than Ireland.
Wales. (Photo: David Rogers/Getty Images)
Those are stats that won’t cut the mustard at the Rugby World Cup in Pool D with the Wallabies, Fiji, Georgia and Uruguay.
Gatland has time to correct those shortcomings with the Cup kickoff on September 20, but it won’t be easy.
Ireland’s coach Joe Schmidt and England’s Eddie Jones also have plenty of negatives to turn into positives by Cup time.
Schmidt didn’t predict Ireland would Slam, but plenty of pundits did.
Another Kiwi, and 53 years of age, Schmidt has won three Six Nations Championship since he started in 2013, the third a Grand Slam last year.
As the second-ranked nation in world rugby, they looked the goods, but finished a limp third.
Topping the turnover count with 80 didn’t help, scoring only 14 tries didn’t help either, nor making only 32 line breaks.
And they lost their two biggest games – 32-20 to England at home in the opening round, and 25-7 away to Wales in the last.
Ireland has Scotland, Japan, Samoa and Russia in Pool A at the Cup, so they won’t have to improve much to finish on top.
I have Ireland meeting the Wallabies in the semis, providing the men in gold put their best players on the paddock in their rightful positions – having two new selectors in Scott Johnson, and Michael O’Connor, will keep coach Michael Cheika in check.
That leaves Eddie Jones, who is in a state of shock for very good reasons.
England led Scotland 31-nil at the home of rugby in the last round until the shadow of half-time when the visitors posted a converted try.
The score went from 31-7 England to Scotland leading 38-31 on full-time – a staggering reversal.
But thanks to a George Ford converted try in injury time it ended up at 38-all, the biggest draw in the Championships’ history.
Jones described the implosion as 100 per cent mental, and will be calling on professional help to solve the problem.
Eddie Jones, head coach of England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Jones can be well-pleased with his troops scoring 24 tries, converting 20 of them and with three penalties to score 184 points, which was by far the best of the big three with Wales 114-65, and Ireland 101-100.
England also topped the line breaks with 67, but turning over 79 times was a downer, as was only 112 defenders beaten with so much possession.
England has France, Argentina, Tonga and the USA in Pool C at the Cup, so they must be careful with France, and the Pumas, very dangerous on their day.
So the Welsh faithful will be singing in the valleys for at least a week, but for Gatland, Schmidt and Jones, their real job has just begun.
ShaghaiDoc
Guest
Coincidentally the try viewed above is eerily like that scored by the All Blacks in 1905. The hometown referee arrived several minutes later, not wanting to splash mud on his three-piece suit when the Boyos had dragged Deans over the try line into the field of play. He happily denied the Kiwis a match-winning try and the first ever grand slam by a Superior Hemisphere side. Their best Grand Slam was in Africa in 1995 when Suzy saved the English bookies. The Boyos think that they can beat the Wallies. Funny they haven't done that much lately. I predict that the SF's in Japan will feature four SH sides. Which four I am unsure of. The Bokke will play the All Blacks in the final and the MVP will be Jacinda Adearn who will turn up in a black jersey with 8 on the back. PS Respect to Nelson Mandella and Kia Kaha Kiwis. May Trump's name live in infamy alongside the no-name of Grafton, Faux-Mo and Neanderthal Hemisphere referees.
Richard
Guest
I will defer to NIcholas BIshop on this. Wales were the best team in the competition.
Nathan
Guest
Infrequently using stats to prop up a nonsense argument isn't a good guide to providing fruitfulanalysis. The main stat is the result. How you win is trivial. You base your analysis on stats; Wales haven't played well because they haven't scored lots of tries or won lots of lineouts. But ignore the form that Australia have been in for the last couple of years which would surely be a pretty important stat. Australia will soon be the whipping boys of SH rugby. Maybe they should stick to NRL - well, they lost to NZ in that recently. Somehow managed to come second in a one horse race.
Matt Porter
Roar Guru
Ha ha, yes, my bad, sorry 5 from 5, my stat lied too...
Val Saunders
Guest
Oh David, what a sad article and I believe so off the mark. As a Welsh supporter I would much prefer to winning the Grand Slam scoring 10 tries than running second scoring 24 tries. History will remember this Welsh team but no-one will remember the English team. I also love your optimism in getting the Wallabies to the semi final, if they run second in the Pool then they play England in the quarters. Can they really beat England? But back to the Welsh team where many commentators claim that individually it does not have great players but if you compare the Wallabies with the Wales team position by position how many Wallabies can get into that side. Genia yes, Folau maybe - he is against North and Adams, Rodda maybe against Beard and Hill and then ? Australia is fixated by Pocock but based on this seasons form not history Tipuric is miles in front. Even if you looked at Pocock at No 8 then the returning Faletau would be selected first. In addition Wales has at least three No10's that can play high quality international rugby while it could be argued that the Wallabies have none. I know a team can be greater than its parts but even here Wales have a better team structure and of course have an outstanding captain. I'd certainly want my money to be on Wales progressing further in RWC than Australia!!!
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Fair call Homer. There are still a majority of Welsh fans who either witnessed or have been fed the folklore of the 70's who still believe this is inherently the way the nation plays its rugby - despite nearly 40 years experience to the contrary. Of the more contemporary and relatively successful Welsh coaches (Henry and Ruddock) Gatland's teams have produced the least tries per game and he did, of course, instigate Warrenball.
Dontcallmeshirley
Guest
Do not trust statistics. Statistically people are born with one testicle!
Homer Gain
Guest
I'm not sure that final clause accurate. Gatland has had several periods in which his methods have been questioned and even when winning I don't think he quite got the halo treatment the Irish have provided for Schmidt. I suspect that is partly down to Welsh memories of winning with such style in the 70s (not always replicated by Warren Gs boys). I think only now that they are losing him are the Welsh beginning to recognise what he has achieved, not least in the face of a dysfunctional WRU set up. Of course he has been blessed with a generation of a excellent players, but that is no guarantee of success. As an England fan I'd happily have him on board and unlike the Welsh, I long ago stopped caring about how we win.
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
Naive analysis. Defense wins games.
Joseph
Guest
That's funny, I don't remember Rob Howley ever coaching Scarlets. Oh wait, assistant coach Howley for Wales? Is that why they score very few tries? NB.. it will be SH 8 to 1 for NH come Japan.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Yeah, I’ll probably end up with egg on my face for doubting Wales ????!
taylorman
Roar Guru
Using November as the yardstick for a world cup is bordering on foolish surely. The SH sides are at their worst at AI time. A long season and within that players have already departed north before the AIs. Youre seriously suggesting Wales are in the ‘sides need to score a minimum of twenty’ school? When they scored the lowest equal tries in this tournament, as many as the side that never won a match? In their current sequence bar tonga its been ten tests since they scored all of 30. Painting Wales as a point scoring machine that others must chase is surely a bit over the top. Theyre barely scraping 20 themselves.
Marcellin Randwick
Guest
If it's begun for them (Gatland, Schmidt and Jones), Cheika hasn't even started. You are very optimistic to preview the Wallabies in the semis, there are no stats to support so. Or not?
soapit
Guest
5 would be more truthful
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Whew Nick, that was close, guess its lucky then that all SH sides scored 20 or more in all 8 finals matches last time out then? Ancient history T-man, ancient history. As I pointed out, Aus and SA scored 17 points and one try between them in the most recent examples. And how many tries did the ABs score against England and Ireland in November? :)
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Rob Howley or Stephen Jones? :D
Joseph
Guest
Nicholas Bishop..name the Welsh coach who made Hadleigh the player he has become?
taylorman
Roar Guru
“all, because anyone who scores less than 20 points in a WC game against the Welsh is going to lose.” WhewNick, that was close, guess its lucky then that all SH sides scored 20 or more in all 8 finals matches last time out then? ????
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes well you cant expect Hansen to keep up with the frequent NH disintegrations. You have to be up early in the morning for that. For Wales, they must lose their streak before the tournament in in pool play or it will act against them. With more than a year of not feeling what its like to lose theyll get smacked when they worst or least expect it. And as weve seen, when recent NH sides lose their mojo, they really lose it. England last year, Ireland this. Wales? Hansen may start touting Wales but even he will know hed be pushing the ‘corny’ boat out, the way hes parroted the latest ‘this is it’ side each time.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
It's Wales which has made Hadleigh into the player he is now BF! :D