The current European Championship qualification structure must be reformed.
Let me set the scene. It’s Friday night in London; the pub is full and so are the pints. The TV screens are on and England are walking out to host their first Euro 2020 qualifier against the Czech Republic.
For a brief moment, there was a sense of déjà vu. The scene was reminiscent of a not-too-distant memory from last summer. Football was coming home again! Although there was something amiss.
As play commenced, the casual chatter and the background music didn’t die away, and hardly a head was turned. There was no collective hush, no commentary, and no plastic pint ‘glasses’ moments away from being hurled into the air.
Okay, so I’ll be the first to admit that it would be harsh to compare the World Cup to the first round of European Qualifiers, but surely this match warranted something of an attentive audience given how successful England have been over the past 12 months. Semi-finalists in Russia. Winners of their inaugural UEFA Nations League group ahead of Spain and Croatia. They haven’t done too much wrong.
The problem is the calibre of the opposition. With no disrespect to the Czech Republic, they’re simply not in the same class as England. It wasn’t a surprise to see the Three Lions, ranked fifth in the world, coast to a 5-0 victory. To compound matters, The Czechs (44th in the world) are the highest-ranked opponent England will face in their qualification group.
England have just put five past Montenegro (46th), and will go on to face Bulgaria (48th) and Kosovo (130th), although to be fair to the latter, they’ve only just entered European competition.
Considering they only have to finish second in their group, England will reach the 2020 European Championships, so there’s not much appeal for the fans. This is especially the case in March when you’re interrupting a Premier League title race that could rival 2012-13 (google ‘Aguerooooo’).
And it’s not just England who will be coasting in their bids to reach the 2020 tournament. While the Wembley crowd watched Raheem Sterling score his first international hat-trick, France were doing it easy in Moldova, cruising to a 4-0 lead before allowing a late consolation goal. The World Champions will also face Albania, Turkey, Andorra and Iceland during qualification.
(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Admittedly, the draw does throw up a few cracking matches. The Germany versus Netherlands game on Sunday night was a belter and could have gone either way, while Hungary showed that rankings don’t always count for much in their win over Croatia.
But too often it’s not the case. Italy are playing Liechtenstein on Tuesday night. How long again until the Champions League is back on?
This raises another point. The lopsided fixtures result in the best players being rested, so you’re not even getting to watch the best teams at full strength. You might as well be watching a friendly.
Don’t even get me started on the number of players from top clubs going down with mysterious injuries or illnesses prior to the international break.
So what’s the solution? Well, UEFA have already half solved it, they just need to take things further. I’m talking about the UEFA Nations League.
Essentially, the Nations League was implemented to bring life back to international football, and after a slow start and almost no fanfare, owing to the fact it started just a couple of months after the World Cup, the football community began to realise just how good it actually was.
Top teams play against top teams, and with relegation, nations are almost forced to play their best XI. Lower-ranked teams play against similar calibre opponents, so they can actually improve, and there’s nothing stopping a team like Kosovo from making it all the way to the top tier. It’s a great concept.
For the 2020 European Qualifiers, just four of the 24 places available will come down to UEFA Nations League results. It’s not the easiest to explain, so I’ll let UEFA do it for you, but I can tell you that one team from the lowest tier of the Nations League will appear at the 2020 tournament. That’s a big win and a huge incentive for the smaller countries.
So why not scrap qualification altogether and use the UEFA Nations League to determine all 24 places? This has huge potential with a number of advantages.
Iceland are a great example of a traditional minnow who’ve excelled on the big stage. (Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
Instead of having the UEFA Nations League every two years, it would be able to run every season. This would add more flow and almost completely eradicate uneven European matches. Almost every match would mean something, and teams will be able to build momentum leading into the big tournaments.
The hypothetical 2019-20 Nations League would be the official qualification path for the 2020 European Championship, and the breakdown would be as follows:
• Eight teams from League A would automatically qualify (those finishing 1st and 2nd in their respective groups).
• Eight teams from League B would automatically qualify (those finishing 1st and 2nd in their respective groups).
• Two teams from League C would automatically qualify (those finishing 1st from their respective groups will play off for the two spots).
• One team from League D would automatically qualify (those finishing 1st from their respective groups will play off for one spot).
• The four teams finishing bottom of their League A groups would play-off against each other for three places.
• The four teams finishing bottom of their League B groups would play-off against each other for two places.
The intricacies of how the spots are allocated can be debated, but this idea is better than the current system.
This same ideology can be carried over to World Cup qualifying by simply adjusting the number of spots based on the UEFA allocation.
This whole concept keeps players and fans interested, and playing the event annually wouldn’t take anything away from the big tournaments.
Player welfare wouldn’t be an issue, especially considering that a UEFA Nations campaign would see teams playing fewer games than they would during Euro or World Cup qualifying.
To put the icing on the cake, it would be a long long time before I have to watch England play a team like the Czech Republic on a Friday night.
Ray McLachlan
Roar Rookie
Good addition - to be honest the actual breakdown of how the teams would qualify was not something I put a lot of time into, my article was just to get the ball rolling. I like your method, just be wary that you’ve really only got March to have these qualifiers (unless you have the final rounds in early June right before the tournament) so you can’t have too many rounds.
Ray McLachlan
Roar Rookie
Very true, I considered using their European rankings rather than overall, although that may have confused some people. Also.... let’s be real here - the Fifa rankings leave a lot to be desired - but I haven’t seen a perfect alternative either. The rankings are always going to be hard because teams from different confederations rarely play each other these days outside of the World Cup and confeds. It makes comparing confederations a bit like comparing eras in sports - it’s very difficult.
Ray McLachlan
Roar Rookie
Agree re: 24 into 16 although it simply seems to be the way the world is going - more teams = more games = more revenue. The fact that Portugal won in 2016 after finishing 3rd in their group is absurd in my opinion, but I haven’t gone into that here because that’s another opinion for another day.
Ray McLachlan
Roar Rookie
Mate absolutely. The concacaf nations league is about to kick into gear, and I think 100% there should be nations leagues in each confederation. At the top there should be a world group as well (which would replace the confeds cup) - that’s something I’ll write about another time. I also think Asia as a confederation needs to be looked at, perhaps splitting into east and west due to the sheer size, and while it’s not a popular one I think you just need to absorb Oceania into Asia and follow the concacaf example - again another article for another time.
Trung
Guest
I think your system disadvantage team in high groups. Who should one team from group a missed out when they may be better than team in group D. It actually rewards team in lower tiers as top team in group d can qualify but a team finish 2nd in group C or last on group A/B can miss out. I would have 8 from group A and 8 from group B automatic qualify Then the second stage of qualification I’ll have 2nd in group C to playoff with top team from group D to remain in qualification contention Then third stage 4 groups of 4 teams containing Bottom group A, bottom group B, top group C, 2nd group C/Top group D Top 2 of the group qualifies to Euro It means that those at the lower tiers must be able to defeat higher tiers team to qualify
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Well forumulated argument, well written, I started off being doubtful, but you had convinced me by the end of it. So many demands are being placed on the modern professional, getting rid of pointless qualifiers would be a start to allaying such concerns. It's a bit of a surprise that the Czechs have fallen to such a low, although in the scheme of things, 44 is not exactly rock bottom (Sth Korea is 38 and Australia is 42 the 2nd and 3rd best Asian teams respectively).
Brian
Guest
That's not a bad idea except if we are talking reform then 24 teams is a horrible number for a tournament. Euro 2016 was full of dullness in the group stage as 16 teams qualified. Either go back to 16 which will make the qualifiers relevant again or go to 32 and just exempt the League A teams from bothering by giving them automatic entry. The other problem is by placing more importance on the league of nations will it become bigger then the Euros themselves. At the moment we have 2 trophies for the same thing which is not great.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Do you also advocate abolishing the equivalent tournaments in all other zones across the globe? No more qualifying for Asian Cup etc? The argument about lop sided results and games that fans are not particularly interested in equallyapoliesin world cup qualification. The interest comes when minnowssuch as Iceland suddenly start to knock over the big boys of the game but there is little interest in watching the Faroe Islands, Luxemburg etc and we lived for a long time wasting time playing Pacific Island nations when trying to qualify for the WC. It all comes down really to what it is you are trying to achieve? Expansion of WC finals to 48 teams could well produce some additional lop sided results. However, I believe the finals are a celebration of football and welcome seeing smaller nations displaying their wares and we only get to see them every four years.