Things aren’t going to plan for Daniel Ricciardo.
A little more than a year has passed since the Australian made the shock decision to leave frontrunner Red Bull Racing for midfielder Renault, but the picture around a quarter of his two-year deal suggests the grass is a long way from the lush green thought to be on offer.
Of course Renault wasn’t expected to be a race-winner or even regular podium-getter this season. Ricciardo was tempted not by immediate success but by the promise of long-term gain along the French team’s strong trajectory from backmarker in 2016 to midfield leader last year.
But the 2019 season was supposed to be one of consolidation at the head of F1’s seven-team midfield, with closing the gap to the frontrunners the goal for 2020 and aspirations for title contention in 2021.
Those long-term dreams may still burn, but the reality of 2019 and impending changes to the sport’s structure makes them appear more like pipedreams than achievable aspirations.
Not only has Renault failed to shrink the gap to the leading three teams, but it’s staggered backwards into the midfield. This time last season it had amassed 82 points and sat fourth in the standings; currently it has only 39 points and wallows in sixth.
Most demonstrative of its fall from grace is that McLaren — effectively seventh at the end of 2018 more than 60 points behind Renault — now comfortably leads the midfield, ironically also with 82 points. More embarrassing still is that McLaren is powered by Renault engines.
From the outside it seemed as though the reality of the situation finally hit Ricciardo after qualifying 18th for the Hungarian Grand Prix immediately before the midseason adjournment when in a press conference tinged with uncharacteristic frustration he admitted he needed a break.
(Stephen Blackberry/Action Plus via Getty Images)
“Sometimes you need to step away for a bit to actually review things,” he said. “The summer break will be good, also for me personally to assess the first six months with the new team.
“I had … scenarios in my head at the start of the year how things I would go. and now I can assess where it is and try to understand also what I can do better within myself and within the team to keep everything going and not let days like this emotionally make me kind of do things that are not positive.”
His Hungarian Grand Prix weekend was coloured by questions about his decision to move to Renault, and even on Friday, before the disappointment of qualifying, the Australian was clear expectations weren’t being met.
“I had hoped for more, but I knew it was not going to happen like this,” he said, snapping his fingers. “But at this halfway point we could say, we need to do better. if we want to be on target for podiums in 2020, we need to start making bigger steps for the second half of the year.
“So up until now I am somewhere in the middle with expectations, but I’d now expect the second half of the season to have some more regular top-six finishes.
“If we stay where we are now to the end of the season, then that’s lower than what we expected.”
Developments are due after the back-to-back Belgian and Italian grands prix this and next weekend, and there’s a lot riding on them as signs of life in the Renault machine. It’s not simply a matter of closing the gap to McLaren — never mind the leaders — to build some recover momentum for 2020; it’s about the medium-term viability of the team.
Formula One is primed for substantial change in 2021, but the groundwork for the competitive picture past that threshold is being laid now. Changes to the technical regulations, designed to improve racing, are due to be finalised in October, but more substantial still are the budget controls scheduled to come into effect at the end of 2020.
In theory the combination of technical and financial regulation will close the field, but there’s growing concern that the biggest teams, with ready access to substantial capital, are ramping up spending to effectively lock in their current advantage once spending is throttled in 2021.
For example, Mercedes and Ferrari had budgets estimated in excess of US$400 million (A$595 million) in 2018, with Red Bull Racing’s spend around US$310 million. Ferrari has already admitted it will tactically increase spending this year ahead of 2021, after which a US$175 million cap will be enforced — a strategy out of reach of lesser-funded teams.
Even Racing Point, newly acquired by Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll, is planning substantial infrastructure spending before 2021.
(Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/Pool via AP)
It contrasts starkly with Renault’s strategy to regain competitiveness with restrained spending in anticipation of the cost cap — indeed team boss Cyril Abiteboul went so far as to tell Motorsport.com he may have to increase spending just to reach the cost cap given it’s likely to be set higher than he’d expected.
This isn’t to say the capability doesn’t exist at Renault to achieve its goals with a frugal budget — money buys potential, not performance — but it’s a certainly a gamble that everything can come together exactly as planned in preparation for 2021.
And so there’s a great deal riding on the next 12 to 18 months at Renault. If this season can be turned around and the 2020 car is a marked improvement on this year’s efforts, then there’s reason to keep the faith in the Renault project.
But if the French team continues to falter through 2019 and allows McLaren — and the top three — to escape further up the road next year, then there’ll be some serious questions asked of Renault’s championship plan and, in turn, Daniel Ricciardo part in it.
These final nine races of the season will be crucial.
WittyReference
Guest
I thought the writing was on the wall for Dan to be over Red Bull when at Azerbaijan, Max would rather run him off the track then let him pass and the team didn't tell Max to let him through. Plus the uncertainty of the Honda after watching Alonso struggle with it. Still a huge risk to go to Renault, it's hard to see them winning a title anytime soon. But I dream of one day seeing an Aussie win the world title so the current fantasy is that Vettel retires at the end of this year after being out pointed by Leclerc and Dan goes to Ferrari for 2020. Oh how I wish this comes true.
anon
Roar Pro
Renault is performing as everyone expected them to. Even Ricciardo knew they'd be nothing more than a mid-field team this year (and next). He's hoping he gets lucky with the regulation changes in 2021. The real reason he left RBR was because Verstappen had well and truly gained the ascendancy. He ran from a fight. By leaving last year he could still keep in command a big salary from a team like Renault with his reputation intact. If he let Verstappen spend the next two years destroying him he'd be left fighting for a drive somewhere like Haas or Alfa. Ricciardo is slower than Verstappen, but he left in time to maintain his reputation. He cast enough aspersions on Horner and RBR to suggest he was getting beaten because of favouritism (Webber went down the same path when he couldn't keep up with Vettel). With his reputation intact I think he'd still get a Ferrari drive if Vettel left. In fact he's improved his reputation by having the upper hand on Hulkenberg. I thought it would be closer between the two but credit to Ricciardo for coming into a new team and getting on top.
Simoc
Guest
The other matter, of course, is money. Renault are paying Daniel Ricciardo Aus$49.5m for his non-performance to date, the third highest money paid on the F1 grid. He's no quicker than Hulkenburg to date so the Hulk has been dumped for Ocon. It's Daniels team to show what he has got so he needs to get his act together soon. It was and is the right move for Ricciardo to Renault and there may not be to much wrong with the car, as with the Haas, once they discover where they're losing (it was said to be front aero misunderstanding but if that was the case , they haven't fixed it). They can turn it around quickly as McLaren have, but need to start getting results.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
I don't think anyone could've predicted McLaren's rise to the front of the midfield - it has been a pleasant surprise. I'm still not confident about any of these midfield teams going to the front in 2021 though but F1 can surprise us. Brawn GP, anyone?
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I think both views on the Ghosn debate are potentially correct. His departure is unlikely to be having an effect on performance this year, but Renault is approaching the point Mercedes also reached in the early 2010s when it decided it had to ramp up spending ahead of the 2014 rules changes to make progress. Would the Renault board without Ghosn be open to increasing spending sufficient to close that widening gap to the front? The new CEO, Thierry Bollore, is apparently a supporter of the team's involvement, but this would be the test. As for Ricciardo's decision to leave RBR, I believe him when he says this wasn't just a straight performance move — he wanted a new challenge and an opportunity to build his own team in the way Red Bull Racing offered Verstappen the same. Will he be regretting writing off McLaren, though? That could become the real question in the next season or so.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
Clearly I don't know as much about Renault as you so I'll concede defeat on that front. The death of Sergio Marchionne last year comes to mind and how that and the leadership changes that followed affected Ferrari. Nobody expected the Honda engine to do this well in the Red Bull so I agree with you that this would have greatly influenced his switch to Renault. As for Max, who knows what Daniel was thinking. Their crash in Azerbaijan wouldn't have helped relations between the two at all so maybe this was a factor in Daniel's departure but, overall, Daniel had a race-winning car and seemed comfortable at Red Bull. I mean, yes, Red Bull looked like they were going to have troubles adjusting to the new Honda engine but to jump ship to a midfield team such as Renault as a result? That's why I don't think it was a wise choice. I just can't understand how Daniel thinks that Renault are going to win world championships in the future. It's going to take a massive shift for the top three to stop winning.
HR
Roar Rookie
It's a different entity, but Ghosn championed the team in the boardroom (it was his pet project in a lot of ways), so losing that advocacy must hurt the team's ability to commandeer resources. If Abiteboul is saying they'll need to spend more to even reach the cost cap, they're clearly not too serious about reaching the pointy end of the field. It was a risky move on Ricciardo's part, sure. But I think that with the combination of an ascendant Verstappen as a teammate (I don't think Ricciardo likes the idea of being a number two driver, whether formally or informally), and the possible risks of the Honda powerplant (which was certainly improving, but which I think has exceeded most expectations this year in terms of power and reliability), it wasn't an unwise choice. Unfortunately it doesn't look to have worked though.
Joshua Kerr
Roar Guru
I don't think Ghosn's removal from the company leadership has anything to do with Renault's decline. Motorsport projects tend to be a different entity to the car manufacturing side. Renault have just had a difficult season. They have suffered a lot from reliability issues in 2019 but this is nothing new as Renault engines in recent years haven't been the best in the world. These struggles have been accentuated by the rise of McLaren to midfield leader. I've said ever since Ricciardo moved to Renault from Red Bull in August last year that this was a risky move and, in the back of his mind, I think he might regret this decision seeing as his former teammate Max Verstappen is sitting pretty just seven points behind Valterri Bottas in the championship. This is why Christian Horner couldn't actually believe that Ricciardo was leaving - it seemed then, as now, to be a ridiculous decision to make. Hopefully, this doesn't ruin Ricciardo's career completely but it has certainly dented it for the time being.
HR
Roar Rookie
How much of Renault's decline has to do with Carlos Ghosn's removal from the company leadership? He was the architect of their return as a factory team and the boss of Renault Sport reported directly to him. It seems that without his advocacy, the team have lost all standing within a company (the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance) that is haemorrhaging cash, looking to cut costs wherever it can, and apparently has very little interest in sporting vehicles outside of a couple of hot hatches and the A110. It seems that Ricciardo has managed to move across to Renault at exactly the wrong time, and he's stuck with a team that appears destined to wither on the vine.