It has been said that the ‘real’ World Cup begins with the quarter-finals. That is because the tournament is invariably confined by this stage to the first tier teams, with perhaps one exception.
The first tier teams have the advantage not only of superior numbers and operating budgets, but of playing in elite competitions from which the rest are firmly excluded. Thus the World Cup becomes a level playing field at the quarter-finals stage.
Notwithstanding the occasional upset, the groups have more the appearance of an exhibition than a genuine contest to find the best teams. We know who’s going to win most of the time. It’s only a question of by how much. And they are, by and large, the same teams winning and losing as we have seen at every previous World Cup.
The play-offs also feature the usual suspects at every tournament, with no great variation in the results. Only five teams have made the final, eight the semis and 12 the quarter-finals after eight tournaments.
FIFA’s first eight World Cups featured 11 different finalists, 16 semifinalists and 20 finalists. Moreover, 41 different nations took part in its first nine tournaments, including 25 debutants since after first. Only 25 have appeared in rugby’s, with just nine newcomers since 1987.
Half of the second tier teams probably shouldn’t be at the current World Cup on form, if we’re honest about, and questions would also have to be asked about Italy. But qualification is more or less a formality for a 20-team tournament.
Does that mean the World Cup should contract and return to 16 teams, for example? Certainly there is a case to be made in that regard. But this would amount to an admission of the game’s lack of progress, and I don’t believe that is justified.
Rather, qualifying itself ought to become a more intensive process, with first, second and third tier rubbing shoulders in independent regional competitions the way they did two decades ago. These could become major events in their own right, as they are in football.
Rugby has grown a great deal in the professional age, with World Cup proceeds being used to fund development programmes at grassroots level, as well as international tournaments for second and third tier nations. The governing body deserves full credit for this.
Where there hasn’t been any discernible progress, however, is in closing the gap between the first and second tier teams, with the former outclassing the latter by an average of around 30 points, just as they did at the inaugural World Cup 32 years ago.
Japan has been the lone bright spot at the last two World Cups, and hopefully we will see the host nation through to the quarter-finals this year. Asia is the only continent not to have been represented at that stage of the tournament.
Japan celebrate. (Photo by Clive Rose – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
One other encouraging sign is the absence of complete blowouts, with centuries appearing to be a thing of the past, and even half-centuries proving rare. One reason for this may be that the big guns are taking a more strategical approach to five-team groups and not going all out to win every game the way they did in the more cut-throat environment of four-team pools.
Nonetheless, the rank outsiders of this tournament have acquitted themselves surprisingly well. Uruguay caused a major upset by defeating Fiji – its third win in four appearances – and Russia restricted the highly-rated Irish to 35 points. Namibia, meanwhile, had its best result against neighbours South Africa to date, despite the 54-point margin.
Hopefully this augurs well for the prospect of more regular encounters between first and second tier nations in the future, because that is the only way the gap is going to close. If not, four years from now we are going to be watching more or less the same “exhibition” all over again.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
This is exciting news for the game, but I think they are really looking at 2031. Thanks for the translation. :thumbup:
From North
Roar Rookie
Putin supports initiative to file bid on hosting 2027 World Rugby Cup in Russia https://tass.com/sport/1082575 Officially, Russia is in the RWC2027 race. But look, TASS did not quote Uss's words about the importance of Krasnoyarsk in Russian rugby. It looks like there will be a fight with Moscow lobbyists for the right to get at least a few games in Krasnoyarsk.
From North
Roar Rookie
Today, Igor Artemyev at a sports forum in Nizhny Novgorod invited Putin to apply for the Rugby World Cup 2027 in Russia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV_XYP3s7O8 Artemyev: “The Rugby World Cup is comparable to the FIFA World Cup. We can organize it in the same cities and use the infrastructure of the FIFA World Cup 2018.” [That is, he meant the cities of the European part of Russia. Without Krasnoyarsk.] Putin: "Of course we can organize the Rugby World Cup. But can we win this World Cup? I have nothing against it. Work through this issue with the Ministry of Sports." And a few minutes later, the governor of Krasnoyarsk, Alexander Uss, spoke. It was an interesting moment. He responded in absentia to Artemyev and defended the interests of the Krasnoyarsk rugby. Artemyev represents the Moscow lobby. Uss: "I would like to support Mr. Artemyev with holding the Rugby World Cup in Russia. But when determining the host cities, keep in mind that half of the players in the Russian national team are from Krasnoyarsk." :rugby:
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
That is good news. Keep us posted :thumbup:
From North
Roar Rookie
Top news! Russia plans to bid for hosting Rugby World Cup in 2027 https://tass.com/sport/1082218 "We will be preparing a bid, this is a very complicated process with all entailing consequences, and we will be ready to submit the bid in 2020 or 2021," he continued. "This issue has been already raised by me in the government, we have been granted an approval and need to coordinate this issue with the Russian Sports Ministry."
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Yes, good points, but international rugby is already played in divisions - and that's the problem. We need more emphasis on regional competitions and integrating the second and third tier with the top tier.
DC
Guest
I love watching the tier 2 teams at the world cup but unfortunately if the tier 1 teams continue to only play each other outside of world cups it is almost impossible for them to develop to a point where they could be pushing past the pool stages . The Nations Championship was an opportunity to open up rugby up to tier 2 countries but the likes of Scotland would not get on board. I would really love to SANZAAR help grow the game and still go ahead with an expanded Rugby Championship with promotion relegation. The Rugby Championship - New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, Argentina, Japan & Fiji Rugby Championship Div 2 - USA, Samoa, Tonga, Uruguay, Hongkong & Namibia Div 3 (4 teams each) African Rugby Championship, Americas Rugby Championship & Asia rugby championship. This was the concept - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoH3xDV8LD4 just need to imagine it with only the "rest of the world teams"
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Seems like only a handful of nations can win the FIFA World Cup, for sure, but the big difference between football's first 8 World Cups and rugby's is the number of finalists (11 vs 5), semifinalists (16 vs 8), quarterfinalists (20 v 12) and participants (41 vs 25). This despite the fact the FIFA tournament did not expand beyond 16 teams until its 12th edition in 1982, while rugby's has involved 20 since its 4th in 1999.
From North
Roar Rookie
Maidan accelerated this process. But the fall has been stable since 1991. The oligarchs robbed everything that was created in Soviet times. The population went extinct and millions went abroad. Since 1991, they have actually reduced the population by half. From 52 million to 25-28 million. Therefore, no one needed the sport, except for a few exceptions. Football. The oligarchs have their own clubs. And some martial arts like boxing. But this is the legacy of the strong Soviet school. Which does not require large investments.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Ukraine, that is.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
It's become the poorest country in Europe since the CIA-orchestrated regime change operation and subsequent civil war.
From North
Roar Rookie
Ukraine is a matter of money. After the collapse of the USSR, they occupy the last place in the world in terms of growth. Therefore, sports at the expense of Soviet athletes 10-15 years old showed results, and then failure in most sports. Kazakhstan is another problem. In 1991, there 50% of the population were Russians. Then they began to squeeze out of the country. The number of Russians is now about 20%, and among schoolchildren only 10%. And in all team sports, Russians made up the absolute majority in Kazakhstan.
Lorry
Roar Rookie
The idea that 20-30 teams can win the FIFA World Cup is simply untrue. In 80 years only 8 teams have win, and some of them are unlikely to win again e.g. Uruguay and possibly even England. Sadly, I think South American powerhouses of Brazil and Argentina (who haven't won for 20 and 30 years respectively) are likely to become less competitive over time, as they can't match wealthier nations in terms of domestic structure. In 30 years of the Rugby World Cup there have already been 4 winners, and there could possibly be a 5th this tournament, although unlikely...
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
You speak my language, Kevin :thumbup:
Kevin
Roar Rookie
More regional comps and reducing the number of automatic qualifying places. Only semi finalists automatic. Regional events with 8 Euro/African, 4 American and 4 Asia Pacific qualifiers E. G. Euro Africa 10 teams in 2 groups of 5 play home or away over 5 weeks with semi final and final as well as play offs for RWC places.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Yes, rugby seemed particularly suited to Eastern Europe before the break-up of the Soviet Union with its amateur ethos. I expected Ukraine to emerge as one of the stronger teams with its 50 million population and Kiev having hosted many of the USSR's home-games, but after showing some promise a decade or so ago they seem to have faded into oblivion. Kazakhstan were another to do well initially, making a World Cup qualifying repechage against Uruguay after finishing 2nd to Japan in Asia. They were led by hulking back rower Timur Masharov - a genuinely world class player - with Anton Rudoy on the flank. But the Kazakhs, too, seem to have faded into obscurity.
From North
Roar Rookie
If rugby in the 20th century was an Olympic sport, then the USSR and then Russia would be the top national team. Perhaps even number 1. Because the resource of athletes of different directions was huge. We have been in Canadian hockey for 10 years since 1946 from scratch we became the top team. Then they constantly competed with Canadians for 1 place in the world. Cause. Canadian hockey was an Olympic sport.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
I always thought Eastern Europe had a lot of potential. They're suited to the game mentally and physically, and perhaps not quite as obsessed with football as the Western Europeans.
Istanbul Wingman
Roar Guru
Tighter eligibility laws. Samoa were always heavily reliant upon the Kiwi diaspora. They're actually back to normal now - where they were in the pre-World Cup era.
Tigranes
Guest
Steve in soccer/football there are about 20-30 countries capable of winning the FIFA World Cup, Australia isn't one if them though.