In a few hours, the New Zealand and Ireland teams will be announced from their respective hotels in Tokyo.
Assuming there have been no injuries during training, there shouldn’t be any major surprises in the All Blacks’ 23.
In the back line it will likely be players who were involved in the match against South Africa at the start of the tournament. Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece and George Bridge will form the back three, with a starting midfield of Anton Leinert-Brown and Sonny Bill Williams. Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith will continue their partnership behind the forwards.
I’m not certain who will come off the bench and when. My best guess is Ryan Crotty will come on for SBW at some point – ideally for Steve Hansen and his team, the later the better, assuming SBW is playing at his peak ability. It is a well drilled, experienced Irish forward pack and SBW’s presence close to the action will be vital. The Irish will keep the ball close to the pack, with the odd foray forward through box kicks and positioning kicks that will seek to test Reece and Bridge.
Two other backs will be named on the bench. My guess here is that Hansen will opt for experience, and in that regard, Ben Smith and TJ Perenara will get the nod. That said, there’s an outside chance that Jordie Barrett and/or Brad Weber may make an appearance because they have both shown their abilities, albeit against weaker teams, and their impact may be more critical in the later stages of the match, depending on the score.
Expect to see Joe Moody, Dane Coles and Nepo Laulala starting up front again, with Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick back together behind them. Sam Cane and Ardie Savea will make up the back three with skipper Kieran Read. Codie Taylor, Ofa Tuungafasi and Angus Ta’avao will come on at some point to ably replace the front row, with Scott Barrett likely to come on replacing Brodie Retallick. Because of his versatility and form, Shannon Frizell will be used later in the match assuming no earlier injuries occur.
The forecast at this point is for rain earlier in the day, but by evening it should have stopped.
(Phil Walter/Getty Images)
There has been a vociferous Irish presence in the stadiums so far. The singing and cheers in fact suggest that twice as many Irish supporters are present. Although they are likely to be outnumbered by All Blacks supporters, including thousands of Japanese spectators, I suspect their singing will make it feel like a home match for the Ireland team.
So, how will it go? We can anticipate the All Blacks playing the game at pace, testing the Irish pack’s ability to move around the field continuously, non-stop for 80 minutes. The All Blacks’ back line is full of players in top form, and all of whom can make a game-changing play. If they all perform to their potential it could be a high-scoring game for the All Blacks.
But if Ireland put pressure on the All Blacks early on, and put some quick points on the board, it will be a different game. And if Ireland vary their play and make much greater use of their back three than what we’ve seen so far in Japan, then – along with Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray’s play-making abilities – we may well see an Irish victory.
Most people don’t expect to see an Irish victory. But under the right conditions it may well happen. That is why the All Blacks must start the match with the right attitude – the sort of attitude we’ve seen in the past – like when they played Ireland soon after their defeat to the Irish in Chicago, and when they beat Australia after having been out-played in Perth a few days earlier.
It will be a fascinating match to watch – two competing styles, and the teams running onto the pitch with different types of preparation over the past few weeks. The All Blacks have had plenty of time to prepare for the battle, but the Irish are more match-ready – and have benefitted from their loss to Japan.
A big factor in the final result, however, may well be the fitness and freshness of the All Blacks compared to an Ireland team that has had to dig deep in their games.
It may well be the play-making ability of any one of the All Blacks – think Barrett, Mo’unga, Reece and Bridge – in the final quarter of the match that will ultimately make the difference.
The Leinster Langer
Guest
Ireland- Chicago 2016 Kapa O Pango Ireland-Dublin 2018 Kapa O Pango (Fingers crossed the ABs perform it again) Ireland have historically always lost when the ABs perform Ka Mate Just a huge Haka fan from Ireland btw I absolutely love it! just so you know, its incredibly special IMO cannot wait to see it again, don’t mind silly articles from people who know nothing about it just trying to get clicks and stir s*** Best of luck NZ may the best team win C’mon the Green Machine!
taylorman
Roar Guru
Itll be toothless tonight.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Well said Mal. I agree Lienert-Brown enjoys more space at 13. Yeah Goodhue must have trained the house down. He is a little under done but no denying his class. I think Frizell off the bench would make an effective impact with his athleticism. Having Todd there will help us out the break down battle as Ireland got to the All Blacks last year in that area, That was one of the first things people said with Coles not starting was his discipline. You highlight a real good point if he does something silly in the crucial last 20 minutes of the game if it is close. That is of concern. Hopefully he does something brilliant like a 20 metre run showing great footwork to score a try. Will be a heck of the game. Please keep up the good articles. You do a job.
One Eye
Roar Rookie
Thanks Mal, was a good read! I think it's fair to say before Mullet's hammy injury he was probably the form Centre and was building nicely, on recent from though I didn't expect him to be selected due to such limited game time and the performance of Crotty and ALB certainly didn't leave any questions after the SA match. Like a few others, memories of 2007 and camera shots of Mauger sitting in the stands does bring back bad memories (I was actually there!), but then I do suspect SBW has better impact from the bench than Crotty so if he's not starting then what? Todd on reflection is a no brainer - Barrett is always there to cover Retallick. The way the Irish play in keeping possession needs an answer and that is Jackals - Savea and in particular, Read are outstanding at pinching at the ruck, Cane is almost non-existent. Bringing Todd on after Cane has emptied the tank with good big hits for 55 mins changes the tempo and drags in forwards who are already fatiguing, he's also vastly superior as a link man than Cane and this was noticeable when he came on against SA. I've never understood why Coles would start ahead of Taylor in the past couple of seasons against big packs - Taylor is a superior scrummager and better in the tight whereas Coles is possibly quicker and better suited to tiring defences. Bold selection in total though - not a single player from 10-15 started the WC final 4 years ago and only one was on the bench.
Davis
Guest
Ioane is struggling with his form at the moment so if anything he would have come off the bench once the game is well under control to give him a run and let him try to find is mojo. As it turns out he isn't even in the squad for this game. His best chance now is as injury cover for the SF & Final (assuming they go all the way).
Davis
Guest
The naming of the team yesterday tells us a lot about how the All Black's will approach this game and I think the Irish will be a little nervous. Generally speaking it's a young, energetic, fast and skillful team Hansen has named. Just my opinion but I get the feeling they will be flying from the first minute until the last. Ireland will definitely be up for it, they have to be, but unless something goes horribly wrong, a red card maybe, I will be very surprised if the AB's don't roll them fairly comfortably. The two wins Ireland have managed against the AB's recently both came in end of season tours when NZ weren't at their best. No disrepect intended towards the Irish as they played extremely well and deserved to win but my point is on Saturday the All Black's will be fresh and very motivated.
Shooter McGavin
Guest
Would an AB setup with Wayne Smith not have selected Crotty? That is monumentally stupid. Let's hope the Perth pairing are a bit better this time, after all they looked good against a tier 2 nation.
HenryHoneyBalls
Guest
Toothless? Last four games Ireland v NZ. NZ 10 tries Ireland 9. Hmmm not seeing much difference. Ireland also have one of the top try scoring backs in world rugby at the moment in Jacob Stockdale. Conor Murray is also one of the highest scoring backs v the ABs in recent years.
Die hard
Roar Rookie
TJ should overtake them all in try scoring next season such is his pace and awareness. But Smith will set up the backline better starting according to their new setup.
Die hard
Roar Rookie
Bridge goes looking further for the work and has a higher work rate. Reiko is a luxury at this stage starting and not yet making the impact or offer the versatility to close out the game.
Die hard
Roar Rookie
Hi Mal. I believe that ALB's best suited to 12 rather than 13 where his stepping and passing gives better value. He is also a very astute kicker. He has the added value of being a great center. Goodhue has got great speed matched with power running and probably is the most effective straight runner since Bruce Robertson. He rarely takes a poor option and regularly gives away a sweet pass to his winger leaving the space to do so. However his real value to the team is watertight defense and a tackle that puts then down hard. Codie Taylor's better suited to the hard stuff opening the game and a stronger scrimmage whereas the smaller but versatile Coles better opening up the width later. Also limits the risk a a card early. The same intent can be seen with Todd. Hansen clearly believes that Retalick is capable of lasting and there is no question Whitlock can go the distance so lock and six/eight are covered with Savea Read and scooter that also cover the contingency of a lock blowing out as well. It leaves a wealth of pace and turnover ability against the Irish ruck. I think that there is a real balance and threat to the team and am very confident moving forward to Saturday.
One Eye
Roar Rookie
Born and bred in CHCH :silly: However, you’re lucky there is so much midfield and outside back talent in title town now with Ennor still kicking it in red n black
Lux Interior
Roar Rookie
There's only so much Tron time a South Island boy can take Jacko. Crusaders 4 peat coming up!
Mal
Roar Rookie
Hi everybody, Thanks for all your comments and thoughts on the article, the team, and the match. So, the team has been announced, and its pretty close to what everyone would have expected. Some quick comments though on the surprises from my perspective. First, I’m not Steve Hansen. He is vastly, significantly more informed on the players and strategy and tactics and the opposition than any of us. He is in the best position to put the best team on the field. That said, from my vantage point, two things surprise me. Surprise #1 – The inclusion of Jack Goodhue, and in particular, in the starting 15. He is a great player and must be really showing top form in the past two weeks of training. My concern though is that this has led to ALB now starting at second five. I think ALB is far better suited to Centre where he has more space. He too is a great player, but if it means there is a shuffle in the backline to enable SBW to come on is that a good idea? Are we assuming he will only play part of the game (that’s a pity)? And is Jack Goodhue ready for a full 80 minutes at this point? The other related surprise is that there is no Ryan Crotty in the match 23. Surprise #2 – I didn’t see Matt Todd in the match 23. The logic for my selection (Shannon Frizell) was versatility. I’m assuming Retallick will not play the full 80 minutes, in which case Scooter would come on in a planned substitution. But what if something happens to Read, Cane or Savea – i.e., injury. If this happens, I have to assume that Todd would come on and play open or blindside flanker. So I will also assume he would play openside and Cane would play the blind. Or, through the training runs, its clear that he can be a great fit with the approach now being used with the back three. In Steve Hansen we trust, however! One final comment – Codie Taylor starting ahead of Dane Coles. They are for the most part fairly interchangeable. I had Coles starting in my line-up for his initial aggression in the early stages of the game against what will be a fired-up Irish forward pack (and hoping he wouldn’t give away penalties!). My concern is that he comes on later in the game with the same mental approach and then gives away critical penalties. But all in all, this is for sure, a super strong All Black team. And, I think, with Ireland as the opposition, a perfect start for the knockout phase.
Mal
Roar Rookie
Hi everybody, Thanks Carlin, and thanks to you all for your comments and thoughts on the article, the team, and the match. So, the team has been announced, and its pretty close to what everyone would have expected. Some quick comments though on the surprises from my perspective. First, I’m not Steve Hansen. He is vastly, significantly more informed on the players and strategy and tactics and the opposition than any of us. He is in the best position to put the best team on the field. That said, from my vantage point, two things surprise me. Surprise #1 – The inclusion of Jack Goodhue, and in particular, in the starting 15. He is a great player and must be really showing top form in the past two weeks of training. My concern though is that this has led to ALB now starting at second five. I think ALB is far better suited to Centre where he has more space. He too is a great player, but if it means there is a shuffle in the backline to enable SBW to come on is that a good idea? Are we assuming he will only play part of the game (that’s a pity)? And is Jack Goodhue ready for a full 80 minutes at this point? The other related surprise is that there is no Ryan Crotty in the match 23. Surprise #2 – I didn’t see Matt Todd in the match 23. The logic for my selection (Shannon Frizell) was versatility. I’m assuming Retallick will not play the full 80 minutes, in which case Scooter would come on in a planned substitution. But what if something happens to Read, Cane or Savea – i.e., injury. If this happens, I have to assume that Todd would come on and play open or blindside flanker. So I will also assume he would play openside and Cane would play the blind. Or, through the training runs, its clear that he can be a great fit with the approach now being used with the back three. In Steve Hansen we trust, however! One final comment – Codie Taylor starting ahead of Dane Coles. They are for the most part fairly interchangeable. I had Coles starting in my line-up for his initial aggression in the early stages of the game against what will be a fired-up Irish forward pack (and hoping he wouldn’t give away penalties!). My concern is that he comes on later in the game with the same mental approach and then gives away critical penalties. But all in all, this is for sure, a super strong All Black team. And, I think, with Ireland as the opposition, a perfect start for the knockout phase.
Cantab
Roar Rookie
Yeah me too. I was in the super rugby final as well, but that worked out. Though the Irish attack is pretty toothless, whilst their defence is strong. So maybe this is just the combo for this game only as he thinks it might crack the Irish defence.
Jacko
Guest
One Eye dont start that sort of treasonist talk....ALB is a Chief and he is 100% Definately , no question, staying locked in ( Hopefully LOL)
ohtani's jacket
Guest
It's been a funny old build up to this game with opinion swinging back and forth on whether Ireland can win. The general consensus seems to change from one day to the next. I'm sure the All Blacks would have liked to have gotten that Italy game under their belts before this match but at least they managed to avoid injury or suspension. I'm keen to see how the new-look All Blacks far against the Ireland defense. The big plus for me about the All Blacks now is their increased speed. But we'll have to wait and see who wins the collisions. That was the difference in the last two Ireland/New Zealand tests. New Zealand won the physical battle the first time and were smashed in the next test. They targeted Retallick in particular. I can't remember a test where he dropped the ball so often. We could have pinched that one, however, with better finishing. It should be a compelling match.
Lux Interior
Roar Rookie
It would be great to give Ireland a hammering but they're a better side than that under Schmidt. There is a factor that hasn't been mentioned much though. RWC QF is Ireland's betè noire. Will the pressure of that history as well as handling the All Blacks pressure be too much?
One Eye
Roar Rookie
ALB and Goodhue were the centres in u20 so have a bit more history than on first glance, there was also a rumour ALB was seriously considering a move south next year to boost his chances of sealing the black 12 Jersey by playing inside Goodhue. Another interesting tidbit I heard yesterday - ALB and Mo'unga played at Marist (?) together from the age of 5 until high school.