What’s the absolute worst that could happen to football in Australia?
The collapse of the A-League? All clubs going bust? The total breakdown of the fabric of society that advances a Mad Max-style dystopia?
When James Johnson started considering taking on the role of CEO of the FFA, managing the economic fallout for football as the result of a global pandemic was low down the list of considerations. And yet here we are.
Perhaps the Mad Max element seems a bit farfetched, but then even at the start of the year the idea that sport in Australia would have shut down almost completely, and the NRL and AFL would be issuing dire financial warnings, also seemed a tad preposterous.
Max Rockatansky is unlikely to appear, unless it’s in his pyjamas and a hoodie following some enforced isolation, but whenever the coronavirus restrictions are lifted, we’ll be entering back into a very different sporting landscape.
To that end, any talk of completing the season imminently seems wildly optimistic at best. New South Wales is under a form of lock-down for 90 days. Different states will be at different stages in their battle to control the virus. New Zealand won’t necessarily follow the same course of action as Australia. Football has very little control over the political, economic and health responses of the country.
In many ways the sport has never been so irrelevant yet so necessary. Even if you strip out the A-League or the NPL, the game is played widely across Australia. It’s part of the fabric of communities. That fabric, and the role football plays across grassroots, will be sorely missed, perhaps more so than the game’s premier competition.
(AAP Image/David Gray)
So what should Johnson do to safeguard the future? Club after club are standing down their players and staff to survive. Regional football bodies do not have the funds to survive a sustained shutdown. The code’s main broadcast partner, themselves struggling to stay afloat, are rumoured to be finding a way to offload the remainder of the broadcasting deal. The A-League is not the Premier League and like other codes in Australia, the loss of finances will soon begin to bite.
It’s not all doom and gloom. The FFA is probably a better place to be right now than, say, Rugby Australia. The game has also been through crises and collapses before. Some of that knowledge will prove invaluable tomorrow.
Tough as it will be to imagine, Johnson needs to plan for the very worst-case scenario and work backwards. What happens if the A-League collapses, with franchises going under? Or we lose the majority of NPL clubs, many of whom do their best to live within their means, but will struggle badly in this crisis? What if many of the foreign stars leave these shores and opt not to return? What if a generation of future Socceroos and Matildas get lost from the game and don’t return?
These are uncomfortable questions. They’re also very real dangers. Johnson and his team, along with the clubs, have every right to hope for the best, but much of the threat is nothing to do with the way the game is run.
Even well managed businesses have closed their doors and stood down their staff. We have an idea when restrictions may be lifted, but that’s dependent on stemming the spread of an easily transmitted virus. The likes of Milos Ninkovic and Alessandro Diamanti may be wonderful schemers, but this is a problem beyond even their creativity.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
But what the pandemic does give the FFA is time: time to consider these questions, plan, and model scenarios that include a need to start from scratch after immeasurable damage to the fabric of the game.
A Black Swan event for football in Australia may not happen. But by assuming it could, the FFA can move from fire fighting to proactively planning a new future. There’s understandably a desire to finish this current season, but long-term disaster planning will stand in game in better stead than devoting energy to finding a remote Queensland island to quarantine players in order to play matches.
As the likes of John Aloisi have already pointed out, it’s also an opportunity to reset the game. The NPL and A-League seasons have an opportunity to sync together. A second division may, practically, be easier than ever to introduce. Struggling franchises could have the opportunity to start over.
Then you have the rarest of rare luxuries – a completed season in the form of the W-League. This is an opportunity to spend time strategising how to build on the positive trajectory of the women’s game, harness the grassroots and create one of the best women’s leagues in the world, while also ensuring the next World Cup finds its way to Australian soil.
Nobody quite knows what Australia’s sporting landscape will look like when the pandemic abates and restrictions are lifted. Nobody can say with any certainty who will be left standing. But by planning for the very worst, the game stands a charge of emerging from this crisis in a stronger place.
Nemesis
Guest
The AFL CEO has publicly admitted it's likely only 4 AFL franchises will exist in their current form by end of 2020. Already the AFL has stepped in to administer the majority of franchises akin to what occurs when a company is deemed insolvent and an administrator steps in. I've been told the AFL would not be too upset with a 4 team competition. It might be a good outcome because it would allow the AFL to change the format to a 4 team finals series played 6 times a year.
AR
Guest
So funny it was printed twice..!
AR
Guest
Too funny..? Too funny is that for the past 10 years this same poser (and his many changing pseudonyms) has been gravely telling everyone to “Smell. The. Fear.” How did that work out? Or is it too funny that I was right - the ALeague WAS a financial disaster. Can anyone seriously dispute that? It was failing every conceivable metric: crowds, ratings, corporate sponsors, broadcast partnerships etc etc. Fox was going to walk BEFORE the corona disaster happened. Or maybe it’s too funny that this poser, “Nemesis”, had already bailed out of the ALeague weeks ago, before corona, like thousands of other fleeing rats before him. But for some reason he’s still here pretending he’s some all-knowing superfan..? Or perhaps the “funniest” thing is your last comment - and Franko’s - because the only sporting organisation that might have guaranteed survival is the AFL, due to having actual assets it can borrow against - and already has to the tune of $600M. IF Melbourne Victory still exists in 2021 - and its a big IF - maybe they can go to their landlord at Marvel and ask that their tenancy agreement by adjusted. Maybe they could play a part in Star Wars Round? Now that *would* be too funny.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
No Sport in Any Part of the Western World will come out of COVID-19 Unscathed
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
I think semi-pro is a 2nd worst case scenario the worst of course having the league fold but i do think the cap will be tightened, marquee signings could be scrapped and there will be more youth playing for a few seasons perhaps a decade, i hope that the rules change so kiwi's don't count as imports at Aussie clubs so that more youth from both sides of the Tasman can get a go, Glory, City, Western United, Brisbane, Wellington and Maybe Newcastle need to look for Cheaper and Smaller Grounds in or near there respective areas as long as it meets basic standards for players, broadcasters and patrons
pacman
Roar Rookie
Agree with much of what you say. As a couple of other posters have suggested, we could end up with a semi-pro A-League due to a severe shortage of money. Many posters fail to realise the drastic effects COVID19 will have on the world economy. I recently suggested the present situation could be as bad as The Great Depression. I now think it will be worse. Time for many to Google “The Great Depression”.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
If the A-League dies there is no starting again right away, some fans suggesting that we reboot the A-League with NPL sides are straight up delusional, we will either add in MacArthur and got to 12 or cut a team and go back to 10 and whichever that is will be the size of the league for at least a decade, no expansion, no new W-League sides for existing A-League sides, no 2nd div, it will be a 10 or 12 team league with a tighter cap and no marquees and more Aussie and Kiwi youth, Some teams should move to smaller cheaper grounds even if not the correct shape to keep costs down for now
AR
Guest
Too funny..? The funniest thing is that for the past 10 years this poser (and his multitude of other pseudonyms he uses) has been gravely telling everyone to “Smell. The. Fear.” How did that work out? The second funniest thing is that AR was right. The ALeague WAS a financial disaster. It was failing on every conceivable metric: crowds, ratings, corporate sponsor exodus, broadcast partners fleeing etc etc. It was, and still is, a sinking ship. The third funniest thing is that “Nemesis” himself bailed out on the ALeague weeks ago, even before the corona disaster. And yet he still talks like he’s some kind all all-knowing superfan. The irony in his last comment - and Franko’s - is that the only sporting organisation with guaranteed survival is the AFL, largely due to assets it owns outright, and being able to borrow against those assets, as it already has done to the tune of $600m. IF - and it’s a big IF - Melbourne Victory still exists in 2021, maybe it can ask the AFL to review its tenancy agreement at Marvel Stadium to more agreeable terms...unless it has already been rebadged as another franchise by then? But “Nemesis” won’t care. He’s just one of many rats which have bailed out already. Funny indeed.
pacman
Roar Rookie
Nick, if your suggestion relates to the period of time whilst social distancing is recommended, and travel restrictions are in place, it will not get to first base. If you are referring to after the COVID has passed and restrictions are lifted, Arnold will endeavour to get his squad together ASAP. All other WC teams are in the same situation as us, so I don't understand your concerns.
Nick Symonds
Guest
All the shutdowns are going to be a setback for young Australian players in particular, who will be missing opportunities for match time. Maybe FFA could start a four team camp in Canberra with two senior teams and two junior teams while national club competitions are in shut down. It'll help them get match time with each other, which is something that Australian World Cup campaigns often suffer from.
Franko
Guest
I'd be looking closer to home AR..... And increasingly that home is looking like it's made out of cards.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
I don't doubt it although I'm inclined to believe that we are not even looking at "worse case". I'm still struggling to believe the mindset of various sporting bodies who somehow though or think they can find a way around all this though. it just tells me they live in a different world to the rest of us!
pacman
Roar Rookie
Buddy, the Qld premier announced in the last couple of days that COVID is expected to plateau during July, August & September. So if her Health Department's prediction is correct, it is unlikely we will see any sport in 2020. Let's hope the prediction is inaccurate, but if we are to prepare for the worst then we have been warned.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Chris, I'm not disagreeing with you- just providing feedback that has already come in from parents and players. It seems quite reasonable in some ways that as a mindset people are going to just write off this winter as a bad experience that they want to forget about and move on to happier brighter days.
chris
Guest
Hmm no - this is from left field for sure. Summer sport wont start in its normal time is what I'm saying. We all have to adapt and make do with the new order of things.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
On top of that is the feedback from players and families who many are saying that come September, if they are allowed, they want to participate in summer sports as per normal and just put this winter behind them....life was never meant to be this complicated surely?
Nemesis
Guest
Too funny. For the past 10 years this poser has been gravely pointing out that A-League was a financial disaster & would likely fail. Now it will spend the next 10 months gravely contradicting itself. Football fans will pick themselves up & start again. We know this because we've done it before. Wonder how the other sports will cope when their franchises are insolvent & either have to start again in a new city, or never play again.
chris
Guest
Buddy yes in NSW. There are sporting working groups working with councils to devise how seasons can be restructured to allow winter sports to complete their seasons. If that means going into November then so be it. Cricket will have to re-align and make some adjustments as well. They wont have a choice.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Not in NSW. At present the offical line is end of May but we already know that a further announcement will be “not before end of June” and it is quite likely even then that it will not happen. For grassroots football, so many grounds are council owned and shared which means they convert into summer sports venues in September leaving nowhere or very few venues to play even if the season was to be extended. Of course, the real risk is resuming too soon and then paying a high price for what might be considered to be petulance.
Nemesis
Guest
Fair points made in this piece. It's now looking very likely there will be no sport played in Australia, certainly no sport with fans in the stadium, in 2020. What this will mean is that there will be no TV broadcast money revenue for the rest of 2020. The financial situation of the A-League & clubs will be same as, or slightly better, than it was in 2005/06 when A-League started. At that time, there was no TV broadcast revenue & clubs were just starting out, so they had low memberships. Melbourne Victory were in such poor condition they couldn't even raise capital to buy a Licence. The FFA eventually helped out & within 2 years the club was the most powerful financial football club in Australia. So, yes. Football will have to turn the clock back to 2005. Certainly the same will apply to all other sports. The same will apply to nearly every customer-facing business that generates income from non-essential consumer spending. This includes Foxtel. Foxtel was on its knees during the boom times for consumer discretionary spending. So, there's little chance Foxtel will survive this financial meltdown. Football had $0 TV money 14 years ago & we found a way to make it work. Wonder if the sports that get big TV money can do the same?