Who might have caught the umpires’ eye at your club? This is my Brownlow prediction for all 18 teams.
Adelaide
Rory Laird 8
Matt Crouch 3
Reilly O’Brien 3
Lachie Sholl 3
No contest here, Laird was brilliant in their wins.
Brisbane
Lachie Neale 26
Jarryd Lyons 11
Dayne Zorko 8
The Lions’ mids are an even bunch after Neale, with Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry also on seven. Zorko polls well, but played more forward this year. Lyons had some big games.
Carlton
Sam Walsh 11
Patrick Cripps 9
Ed Curnow 5
Remarkably, Cripps might not win the Blues’ count. He had very few dominant games, although Walsh is relying on some of his votes coming in losses.
Collingwood
Taylor Adams 14
Scott Pendlebury 11
Adam Treloar 7
A 50-50 between Adams and Pendlebury, as the umpires could potentially take a year to give Adams his due recognition. Steele Sidebottom (six votes) always gets a few random twos and threes, but had an injury-riddled year.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Essendon
Zac Merrett 13
Andy McGrath 8
Dylan Shiel 7
Merrett usually wins the Bombers’ count and this year will be no exception. McGrath is now a B+ midfielder and should get close to Merrett. Jordan Ridley (three votes) won the best and fairest, but generally isn’t a high disposal winner.
Fremantle
Nat Fyfe 12
Andrew Brayshaw 9
Michael Walters 7
David Mundy 7
Fyfe didn’t have his best year, as the likes of Brayshaw and Adam Cerra (four votes) stepped up in supporting midfield roles. Luke Ryan (six), who took a huge number of contested intercept marks, may poll as well as any defender.
Geelong
Patrick Dangerfield 15
Cam Guthrie 13
Tom Hawkins 11
Despite playing just as well as last year, Dangerfield won’t get as many votes in 2020. He was more consistent, but had fewer dominant games, while Guthrie and Sam Menegola (ten votes) stepped up in the midfield. Menegola could poll even better, but holds a low profile.
Gold Coast
Matt Rowell 9
Touk Miller 6
Hugh Greenwood 4
Remarkably, Rowell probably got enough votes in his first ever three games to win their count. He doesn’t have much room for error though, so Miller or Greenwood could steal the win if Rowell misses out on one of his threes.
GWS
Toby Greene 9
Lachie Whitfield 9
Josh Kelly 7
A very disappointing season for the Giants shows in their votes, with no one expected to receive more than ten. Greene had some big games in the first half of the season, and should battle Whitfield for top votes.
Hawthorn
Chad Wingard 9
Tom Mitchell 6
Jack Gunston 6
This is one of the more surprising results, with Mitchell only managing six votes in my count. He could easily beat Wingard though if the umpires don’t fully reward Wingard for his scintillating early season form.
Melbourne
Christian Petracca 18
Max Gawn 15
Clayton Oliver 9
Petracca has a wide voting range. He could go close to Neale due to his flashy and powerful game style, but he also didn’t have many games where he was a clear best on ground. Oliver tends not to poll as well as Gawn, though Oliver rose to a new level this year.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
North Melbourne
Jed Anderson 7
Todd Goldstein 6
Jy Simpkin 4
Shaun Higgins 4
It was slim pickings for my team unfortunately. Simpkin had some outstanding games, but Anderson was better in wins.
Port Adelaide
Travis Boak 20
Ollie Wines 13
Tom Rockliff 10
Wines polls well and could steal enough votes off Boak to hand Neale the win. Rockliff was also very good late in the season, while Charlie Dixon (eight votes) and Zak Butters (five) were the pick of the non-midfielders.
Richmond
Dustin Martin 17
Shai Bolton 8
Kane Lambert 7
In a very even side, Martin was the only standout. Bolton, possibly the AFL’s most improved player, so often broke through the midfield with pace and agility.
St Kilda
Jack Steele 17
Zak Jones 10
Rowan Marshall 8
Jack Billings 8
Jones’ pace and bald head should get him lots of votes in the first half of the season. He was almost as good as Steele in that period, but Steele continued his good form throughout the whole year. Goal-kicking ruckmen get votes, and Marshall is one of the best.
Sydney
Luke Parker 11
Isaac Heeney 6
Jake Lloyd 5
Tom Papley 5
Josh P Kennedy is usually among the top two for Sydney, but I could only find two votes for him this year. Heeney was a match-winner in Rounds 1 and 3 before succumbing to injury. It will be interesting to see how Lloyd goes as the AFL’s number three for disposals.
West Coast
Nic Naitanui 13
Tim Kelly 8
Josh J Kennedy 8
Liam Ryan 8
This is perhaps the most intriguing leader board, as the influential Naitanui goes up against a group of prolific midfielders including Kelly, Andrew Gaff (seven votes) and Dom Sheed (six). Kennedy and Ryan each have a few certain vote games, but are capped at about ten votes.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Western Bulldogs
Marcus Bontempelli 16
Jack Macrae 13
Caleb Daniel 6
Bontempelli storms home to overtake Macrae in my count. Daniel is a good chance for third, but Bailey Smith (four votes) just missed out on several occasions, so his long hair could easily get him a few bonus votes.
Round 10 leader
Lachie Neale 26
Travis Boak 12
Jack Macrae 11
Best first-year player
Matt Rowell 9
Lachie Sholl 3
Noah Anderson 2
Best forward
Tom Hawkins 11
Toby Greene 9
Liam Ryan 8
Josh J Kennedy 8
Charlie Dixon 8
Best defender
Nick Haynes 6
Daniel Rich 6
Luke Ryan 6
Caleb Daniel 6
Best ruckman
Max Gawn 15
Nic Naitanui 13
Rowan Marshall 8
Overall
1. Lachie Neale – 26 votes
2. Travis Boak – 20
3. Christian Petracca – 18
4. Dustin Martin – 17
4. Jack Steele – 17
6. Marcus Bontempelli – 16
7. Max Gawn – 15
7. Patrick Dangerfield – 15
9. Taylor Adams – 14
10. Zach Merrett – 13
10. Jack Macrae – 13
10. Ollie Wines – 13
10. Cam Guthrie – 13
10. Nic Naitanui – 13
15. Nat Fyfe – 12
16. Scott Pendlebury – 11
16. Luke Parker – 11
16. Tom Hawkins – 11
16. Jarryd Lyons – 11
16. Sam Walsh – 11
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
I agree. Anderson has been cruelled by injury early in his career. Given a decent run could develop into a gun. Don't watch many North games as a rule but after reading/hearing a fair rap on Simpkin started watching a few more closely. A really good kid. Great skills, hard at it with plenty of upside. Cunnington's loss made things difficult for North's mids but these two stood up well.
Lucas Lewit-Mendes
Roar Pro
I certainly agree that Neale is no certainty for any game except maybe round 9 when he kicked a couple of goals himself. However, he just played well in so many games that I think it would be really unlikely for him not to win. Even if he misses out on a couple of 3s, he should pick up a couple of random 1s in other games. I have him getting 3s in R2, R3, R5, R8, R9 and R11. I gave Zorko the 3 in R16 given his two goals. Generally, the forward needs 7 goals to get 3 votes unless they had a lot of the ball as well, so it will be interesting to see whether that number is 6 or only 5 in shortened game-time this year (mathematically, it should be 5.6)!
Lucas Lewit-Mendes
Roar Pro
I think we'll probably find he drops back to being a B+ player next year, unless Gold Coast start winning a few more games. My tip for next year is a fit Paddy Cripps.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Boak is my pick.
Scott
Guest
Be wary about Neale winning so easily. He should win but I would definitely advise against taking his short odds. All the predictors are predicting 26-28 votes. I backed Neale last year and he doesn’t poll as well as his stats look. Watch for the following games where all the predictors have given him 3 votes. Round 9 - 33 possessions 2 goals (Charlie Cameron scored 4 goals) Round 11 - 36 possessions 1 goal (Eric hipwwod scored 5 goals, Jack McRae had 40 possessions) Round 8 - 33 possessions 0 goals in 4 point win (Petracca played well and is more noticeable, Oliver and Gawn also played well) Round 3 - 32 possessions 2 goals (mcgluggage looked very classy with 26 possessions and 20 kicks) Round 16 - 33 possessions 0 goals (Mcluggage 28 poss 1 goal, Zorko 25 poss 2 goals, Charlie Cameron 15 poss 3 goals) I don’t think he is 100% guaranteed the 3 in any of those games and there is a slight chance he polls 1 or none in 2 of them. Mcluggage, Lyons and Zorko all poll better off less possessions. Mcluggage in particular is a very classy looking player to the eye. Also when Charlie Cameron is on fire he is a gun and when Hipwood scored 5 goals last year, he got the 3 votes over Neale who only got 1 vote for a 38 possession game. In another game Hipwood kicked 6 goals and got the votes over Neale with 43 possessions. If the voting plays out the same as it did last year then there is a massive Smokey who no one is looking at and guess what, we are gonna have the same Brownlow medalist. Neale is a chance to poll in 12 games whilst Nat Fyfe is a chance to poll in 10. I’ve watched every Freo game this year and Fyfe is still the best player to the eye. He hasn’t stood out like normal, so he has barely copped a mention from the commentators, but he is a proven 3 vote winner on the field in the umpires eyes. I don’t expect Fyfe to win but from looking at every game individually, he is a coin toss at the 3 votes in most of them. Only Walters captures the eye out of his teammates. Neale has been the commentators darling this year and he does deserve to win, but his best games are still only worth 3 votes and players like Petracca, Dangerfield and Fyfe etc. stand out a lot more on the field
philip mendes
Guest
Its been an amazing turnaround for Jed Anderson at North. He was widely derided by our supporters in his first few years after we gave up a first round pick for him, and he seemed a flop. But the last 3 years he has been outstanding, and is often the driving force when we perform well. Simpkin has the ability to be a star with his clever baulks and good use of the ball. We just need a few big bodied midfielders to stand up, and give him the time and space to display his talent.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Interesting, I think you’re right on the money with Neale. It’s a near formality that he wins the Brownlow this year and deservedly so. What do we reckon the odds are that Rowell gets a full season and wins a Brownlow next year?