The eighth efficacy look in my series puts young Irish lock James Ryan under the microscope.
As a reminder, I have rated every involvement in one Test match by Matt Philip, Guido Petti, Rob Simmons, Scott Barrett, Patrick Tuipulotu, Bakkies Botha, and Maro Itoje as positive, neutral, or negative.
I take each involvement as if it is alone in the universe; a vacuum. So, if a lock steals a lineout, or makes a dominant tackle, I don’t downgrade it just because the halfback stuffs up the resulting turnover.
We have seen a rate of involvement per minute range from 0.61 per minute (Tuipulotu) to 1.1 (Botha), with Itoje (0.9) and Philip (0.84) also quite busy.
I’ve only run the ruler over eight, but the average is 0.8/minute, thus far. I’ve started to develop work-rate tiers (assuming the positive-to-negative ratio is healthy).
0.5-0.59: Test pretender
0.6-0.69: journeyman
0.7-0.79: Test animal
0.8-0.89: starter when healthy
0.9-0.99: MOTM territory
1.0-1.09: star
1.1 and up: legend
The players with the best positive percentage thus far were:
Petti 42.5 percent
Botha 35 percent
Philip 32 percent
So, how did Ryan fare in the match I selected (Ireland versus France in the 2020 Six Nations)? Very well.
Ryan is a fluid power athlete. He is slim-hipped, wide shouldered, long-limbed, and well-conditioned.
I was impressed most by his forceful tackling, but also, his clean-outs and carries.
Ryan produced the second-busiest Test I’ve watched in this series: 0.95 involvements per minute, only lagging Botha’s brutal masterpiece in the 2007 World Cup final.
He also finished second in positive percentage (38 percent), with a tidy 2.5 percent negative (29-36-2 in 77 total involvements over 81 minutes). His first and second halves totals differed by only one involvement.
I divide the match into eight ‘Chukkas’ to allow benchmarking. Ryan went 5-9-9-11-8-9-8-8, a stamina constancy rivalled only by Botha. He does not play in surges. Ryan is more of a PSDT-type player who sweats profusely, and pushes himself to the limit.
In this match, both teams had a small chance of overtaking England to win the tournament. Ireland had to win, with a bonus point. France won, but not by enough (they needed to smash Ireland). A lot was on the line. The Stade de France was cavernously empty.
If Ryan wanted to look forward to the Lions tour, he had two Saffas opposite, behemoth Paul Willemse, who has lost eight kilograms to be 124 kg, and Bernard le Roux.
(He also had two Western Cape boys with him, in CJ Stander and Rob Herring). Now, the French locks weren’t good enough to be Boks, but still, they were big enough, in a 926 kg pack. So, flat-bellied Ryan would have a lot of braai bouef to move at the ruck.
First Chukka (five involvements)
It couldn’t have started worse. Ryan spilled the kickoff.
Positive: he made two dominant tackles; this was a theme.
Neutral: he made two carries up into the teeth of the Frog pack.
Negative: he dropped the kickoff!
Second Chukka (nine involvements)
Positive: one of his fast rush tackles caused a knock on, he bounced a French defender at 18:08 to continue a drive to score, and latched Cian Healy over to help him dot down (after he called the play).
Neutral: Ryan took a clean lineout at 10:30, pressured a kick, cleaned three rucks, and finished at 19:45 with a hard clear out.
Third Chukka (nine involvements)
Ryan flew around the park in this period, even if he started at 2-defence off openside rucks. He lost a boot. Ireland took a 10-7 lead, but then gave up a penalty try for an early tackle by C. Doris.
Positive: Ryan chased a kick and tackled live wire DuPont. He made two hard carries over the gainline, causing French infringements.
He made a lovely clean out at 24:10. He scrambled way back to make a tackle (at 29:30) to no avail.
Neutral: He pressured a lineout, took another, drove a maul, and attended a ruck.
Fourth Chukka (11 involvements)
Long scrum resets and a painfully slow penalty goal by Ntamack chewed up several minutes, yet Ryan was frenetic, and drenched.
Positive: Ryan made a superb clean on the French No 8, made it over the gainline at 31:15, winning a goal, took a tough aerial restart, made a dominant tackle, a monster clean, and finished with a penetrating run.
Neutral: He made two settling carries, attended two rucks, and steered a maul.
Fifth Chukka (eight involvements)
Ireland lost its way in this period (going down 13-22) but not due to Ryan (or a paucity of possession).
Positive: Ryan chased and tackled, caused a skew French lineout, stopped and sacked a maul legally at 46:04, pirouetted to a five-metre carry, and messed up another French lineout.
Neutral: He carried, cleaned, and tackled, properly.
Sixth Chukka (nine involvements)
Positive: Ryan took a lineout under severe pressure, carried hard close to the try line, dominated MOTM Aldritt in a tackle, and a minute later erased a French prop carrier.
Neutral: he tackled low, rucked twice, and took easy lineouts at 54:00 and 59:05.
Seventh Chukka (eight involvements)
This is the point at which many of our big locks fade (and go off, like Simmons and Tuipulotu), or if they need to go the full 80, slow down. Ryan went the same speed all game.
Positive: Ryan was first to rush and tackle, and again dominated the man mountain prop.
Neutral: He took a restart without a lifter, showed up at two rucks, made a hard clean, and took a lineout.
Negative: He lost a lineout, by being too passive.
Eighth Chukka (eight involvements)
Ireland never gave up, despite being down 20-35 at one point. They scored the last try.
Positive: Yet another dominant tackle, and then (at 73:40) a snot-knocking blast tackle.
Neutral: Two lineout takes, a contest, two carries in tight, and a ruck.
If Ireland had stopped one of the French miracle tries, and scored a penalty, and won a thriller again, Ryan would’ve deserved MOTM.
As it was, I found him very rugged, fast to rucks, decisive in collisions, and full of fire. The Lions are stocked, with Ryan, Itoje, AWJ, and picking from Launchbury, Gray, and Lawes.
His performance was the second best I’ve seen so far.
Harry Jones
Expert
Simmons 4600
Harry Jones
Expert
Looks like Bakkies was also the most interesting article to readers: 7000+ reads: Botha, 4600 for Barrett. The others about 2000.
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, I see both (Faz or AWJ) as “safe” choices which could backfire. But there also the risk or appointing a new skipper and him deferring too much to AWJ anyway.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
The peasants or pheasants?
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Bloody good question Harry. I'd always have a forward preference, especially in SA, but the lack of obvious candidates has me concerned Gatland will play AWJ at the expense of better players. A bookies favourite is Farrell. Neither prospects particularly inspire me. This is potentially a key decision Gats can make early doors and earn the big bucks in identifying that inspired appointment. Or he'll just go with Faz.
Harry Jones
Expert
I’m hungry now
Harry Jones
Expert
So true. I was surprised how far Ryan ranges in the defensive line. It looks by design. Also, he is strong enough to stop and turn big French. I didn’t know he was
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
It will be a weird Christmas, alone and isolated in the countryside. But you know me, I will entertain myself :happy: Best Christmas wishes to you too, wherever in the world you are.
Harry Jones
Expert
Involvement rate below nought?
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
We slow roast em with lots of farm fruit - pears and the like!
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Yes, it’s also good business, but I have a certain dollop of honour about my sensibilities. Thus, I’m used to stating my biases, and yet delivering dispassionate verdicts, even: “this part, we do not yet know.” Yep essential to have these pieces in place in order to do research properly - and accepting what you do not yet know along the way. I always have to get outside the preconceptions in my appraisals in order to deliver something useful and real. It is very often not what I expect at the start :thumbup: :rugby:
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Now you're moving into the prop arena H! Is that the next set of articles? :stoked:
Harry Jones
Expert
I bet you are right, Neil.
Harry Jones
Expert
The reason I’m not doing PSDT (besides the fact his involvement rate would embarrass the rest!) is he’s free to roam. Locks are better to Apple-to-Apple because they have certain jobs to get done.
Harry Jones
Expert
Neil, do you think the captain will be in the tight five?
Harry Jones
Expert
Merry Winter Solstice, Viking man
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, the chance for fudging involvements-per-minute it is rather low. I’m confident I have the ratio of positive quite accurate, after a life of rugby obsession. The only thing that is sometimes tricky is the negatives: but that’s usually less than 5-10 a match. It’s been fun.
Harry Jones
Expert
Bending the rung below them is fit but fat Frans Malherbe?
Harry Jones
Expert
Thanks, Nick. I do cross-border abuse and fraud investigations for a living and the boards and agencies and humans affected by my results are owed my best efforts to be fair. Yes, it’s also good business, but I have a certain dollop of honour about my sensibilities. Thus, I’m used to stating my biases, and yet delivering dispassionate verdicts, even: “this part, we do not yet know.” But I assume opponents (whitewash! witch hunt!) will attack results they dislike. If I’ve been true to my ideals, I don’t worry. If not, I do
Harry Jones
Expert
Ryan is capable of high work rate, and fiery accuracy. He’d be in my Lion 23.