When the AFL introduced the concept of the northern academies it was the Sydney Swans that were the most enthusiastic, growing the game in New South Wales from its inception in 2010 to ten hubs up and down the coast from Coffs Harbour to Woollongong.
Each year it seems the Swans academy produces another elite player and the graduates make an impressive list, with Sam Naismith, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, James Bell and Nick Blakey providing a foundation for the list to build around.
Dane Rampe is an example of a player who has had to take the long way round to reach his potential in the AFL. However, had he been a few years younger, he could have been groomed through the Swans’ elite training academy and not had to struggle through years of second-tier football.
Last year Sydney rookied one of their academy graduates, Jack Maibaum, but the list-size reduction forced them to delist him straight away, though the sacking of Elijah Taylor may allow the way back for one of the delistees in the preseason.
But despite all the work done by Sydney’s team of scouts and recruiters, the list managers have known for some time who they’d be recruiting from their academy at this year’s draft. It was only a matter of accommodating enough draft value index points to match early bids.
(Photo by Mark Dadswell/Getty Images)
Therefore the trade period was mostly uneventful for the Swans, who were eventually forced to trade Aliir Aliir to Port Adelaide, but with Tom McCartin going into defence the loss won’t set Sydney’s regeneration back.
On the final day of trading Sydney moved back from Pick 25, which slid to 30 anyway, for Picks 31 and 43 as they started to manoeuvre for points to match bids, then as soon as the next trade window opened they offloaded 31 for Pick 48 and a future third-round selection from Carlton, which they then flipped to the Suns for Pick 37.
When the night of the draft came around, Sydney’s draft strategy was quite easy for loungeroom observers – pick the best player available at four, then match bids for their two academy cygnets.
However, the choice came down to what path to take, be it a replacement for Lance Franklin, an offsider for Rampe, a protege for Josh Kennedy or a Nick Blakey clone, so they chose the area of greatest need and arguably the best player available in Logan McDonald.
Hawthorn called Braeden Campbell’s name next, which showed the Swans’ genius in moving picks around for points, as their Picks 34, 37, and 43 had actually come in at 32, 35, 39 after the Bulldogs burnt their picks matching for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, which matched the bid and left enough points for the Swans to match another bid.
When Geelong put a bid up for Errol Gulden at Pick 32 the Swans had almost perfectly judged the number of points needed for both, even though the first bid was higher than they’d have liked – perhaps karma after the Swans’ history of bidding on tied players – but with their second academy graduate sliding they even had points leftover that exhausted when they passed in the fourth round.
Their rookie draft was over quickly, with the Swans picking Malachy Carruthers from Sturt’s SANFL under-18s, then they took their third academy graduate and second Pennant Hills product, Marc Sheather, to fill their second Category B rookie spot, making nine Swans academy players on the current list and overall 11 NSW products.
McDonald comes to Sydney as the heir apparent to Buddy Franklin, with SCG crowds for the next ten to 15 years having yet another goal-kicking full-forward, except this time not poached from a Victorian club. Big forwards rarely become AFL coaches, so John Longmire must have had more than a little to do with the pick.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Campbell has been identified as a first-round draft pick from the 2019 NAB Academy Series where he showed his skills as a midfielder and a forward, averaging two goals across four games, including a four-goal bag. He was best on ground in the 2019 grand final curtain-raiser AFL Futures match and had his ticket stamped from there.
Gulden was for some time mentioned in the same breath as his academy teammate and only fell behind in predictions during this season when they didn’t play. The main reasons are that his kicking is not as good – Campbell is elite – and that he’s only 175 centimetres, which caused him to slide out of the first round despite his versatility and obvious footy IQ.
Carruthers is a South Australian medium defender who bucked the trend by coming into the disrupted season having missed out on the AFL academy hub squad, yet he managed to make his way onto the Swans list by leading his Sturt under-18s side into the grand final with his rebound off halfback and excellent distribution, which makes him ideal for the Swans to develop.
Sheather will also be slotted into the Swans development group where they like to bring players along slowly at senior level, though doubtless now that they’ll be playing against Victorian AFL reserves and VFL sides as well as NEAFL teams the higher standard will equalise the gap between first and second-tier football for the northern states clubs. His utility value makes him a genuine prospect of becoming an AFL player, particularly with Sydney’s record in this area.
The Swans have had arguably the best draft of all 18 teams, with two top-five picks who can immediately make the team better in Round 1, while losing Aliir and Taylor blight their overall trade and draft performance. Look for them to add a player in the preseason, potentially from among their own delistings.
Sydney has now recruited a quarter of their list from homegrown talent and their academy program continues to be the largest, with the only things holding them back being a shortage of AFL-size ovals and no AFLW licence, but with the largest supporter base in the league, they’ll have something to cheer about this year.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Yes, I think the Kaine Baldwin story is a good one. He may get to taste NEVFL footy by the end of the year even if he isn't drafted, which is either way great for his development. The change to under 19s and inclusion of Northern Academies in the NAB League means we could see a lot more player movement of undrafted U18s for their top-age year. For the Northern Academies, it gives them a chance to assess them over the preseason for possible SSP, but no bid matching rights which will keep the whiny Victorian clubs content. There remains some sentimentality in AFL. Mitch Hannan was traded by the Bulldogs, who had developed him to be drafted as a mature ager in the VFL side. Essendon did the same with Nick Hind, who St Kilda had poached from their VFL side and now returns to Windy Hill. All 12 academy and father-son bids were matched in the draft, the Suns pre-listed 4 players from their Academy, Port took their father-son at the end of the rookie draft, while there were another 6 academy players selected as Category B rookies. Even Richmond's man mountain Mate Colina is Noah Balta's cousin. Luke Edwards is the outlier. If Kaine Baldwin slides through the draft again and the Suns are on the clock he'd have to be a better than fair chance of being drafted. Rory Thompson is rehabilitating his second ACL in two years, having done one knee in the preseason of 2019, then doing the other knee as he was about to return to senior footy in 2020, so his progress will need to be assessed before any decision can be made on whether he plays in 2021 or sits out for the third season in a row and opens up a roster spot. If I understand correctly, the AFL will extend list sizes again in 2021 as salary caps go up and 19yos like Kaine aren't disadvantaged by Covid. Plenty of kids like him looking for a big year. Won't be surprised one bit to hear of undrafted players heading all over the country for a fresh start at a destination academy.
Chris M
Guest
Hi Thomas, I'm not a subscriber to the Herald Sun, but thanks for the update. That's a tentative win for Gold Coast. I read in the lead-up to the draft that Kaine Baldwin was a highly rated junior before his ACL injury. It's hard to predict if the partial tear after the original ACL injury was just an unfortunate one-off occurrence or will lead to ongoing repetitions throughout his career. Despite not being picked in the recent draft, it's possible that Baldwin may still end up a gem if he gets a clear run free from injury. I think it's worth taking the risk with him when you don't have to expend too much or any draft capital. Gold Coast could develop into a powerhouse if they can find another A-grade key forward to partner with Ben King and retain their previous other high grade talent when their contracts come around for renewal. The Suns probably drafted Jack Lukosius as a key forward but he seems to be mainly used at the other end of the ground. If Lukosius eventually ends up in the front half, all well and good. If not, it doesn't really matter in which position on the field he ends up playing, as long as the high draft pick used on him isn't wasted and the Gold Coast Suns find another way to plug the gap.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Hi Chris. The Herald Sun broke the news I was sitting on. "1. Kaine Baldwin Many observers believed the pack-crashing Glenelg forward would have been a top-10 selection if not for consecutive anterior cruciate ligament injuries. The 18-year-old has moved to the Gold Coast for study and will play for the Suns’ under-19 academy squad in the NAB League. Although he is not due to return to the field until April or May, Baldwin will be tough to overlook if he shows he is over his knee issues." Kaine Baldwin is a Suns Academy player. He's enrolled at Uni on the Gold Coast at Bond Uni. The Suns status in the SSP depends on whether any players need to be placed on the Long Term Injuries list, which would mean they could just put him straight on the list. The other way he becomes a Sun is through the midseason draft, but another club can still choose him. Same goes with the actual draft if he makes it that far. Then again, the Suns picked up a player who was training with Box Hill in the SSP in 2019, so another club could make him an offer he can't refuse. See more here if you have a subscription https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/news/10-players-putting-their-hands-up-to-fill-vacant-list-spots-at-afl-clubs-during-supplementary-selection-period/news-story/219e718364fd164f6eb7ea95632f5c0f
Chris M
Guest
Ideally I'd like to see the draftees introduced to football through the new 2021 North East and VFL Second Tier Competition to show whether they can dominate there at this early stage of their careers. The Swans have usually been known to show patience and conservatism before blooding their youngest players. Some may be ready sooner than others either because they already know the Swans system or because they now have the skills and/or are more physically ready and able to compete against mature-bodied opponents at AFL level even in a role which may yet differ from the one they play when they mature. Big-bodied Will Gould, a draftee from last year, is still awaiting his opportunity to taste AFL football for the first time, as he learns the Swans defensive structures. I am sure that he will be selected when he is best tactically prepared to enter the fray. None of last year's Swans' draftees played in the first round of 2020. Draftee forward, Logan McDonald, needs to be handled with care, not rushed to debut and not too much should be expected of him in his first year. Even Buddy Franklin only averaged a goal per game from the 20 games he played in his first year with Hawthorn in 2005 and his record already has him considered as an all-time great. McDonald's career may end up being elite. However, the odds are that McDonald's career, or the careers of the King twins, of Thilthorpe or of any other key forward still playing, are unlikely to be as productive on the scoreboard by their career's end as Buddy's has already been. Now tipping the scales at around 105kg, according to the current Sydney Swans website, Buddy was probably far heavier in his first playing year of 2005 than the 86kg that McDonald is currently registered as weighing. Logan McDonald may need a few more years before he can become the No 1 or No 2 key forward. That's why Paddy McCartin could be a handy addition, if he were to be added to the list. He's currently 24 years old, turning 25 in 2021, at the very top end of the Swans' apparent "youth" target range. He used to weigh around 100 kg during his AFL playing days, although he may now have trimmed down a little to become AFL-ready. If Paddy were to reach his potential, he could perhaps average 2 goals or more per game, even though he hasn't done so yet in his younger career. That scoring output is greater than one can expect from any of the other mature key forwards currently on the Swans list, except for 3 goal-per-game Buddy, if he plays as well as he has in more recent times, and except perhaps for Logan McDonald in a few more years time. Sam Reid averaged half a goal per game in 2020 and has averaged less than a goal per game over his career. Although he has been playing most recently as the principal ruckman due to player injuries over recent seasons, Callum Sinclair has not yet averaged a goal per game in any season, even when he was playing the forward-ruckman role. Reid and Sinclair play their roles admirably within the Swans' structures, but if a team wants to go to the next level, it would sure be handier to have a tall combination with the score power quality of Lynch-Riewoldt, Kennedy-Darling or Hawkins-Cameron.
Captain Obvious
Roar Rookie
Gulden is barely 175cm, plus he is not anywhere near as good as Campbell. Really be surprised to see Gulden play this season barring injuries.
Davico
Roar Pro
:crying:
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Crap. I had written a full reply here, but we had a blackout. Anyway, Sydney should sign Brayden "Goober" Crossley, for reasons.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
You will have noticed I said "Sydney's brittle ruck division". IMHO, the Swans should take a long look at Brayden "Goober" Crossley, who was delisted by the Suns while under suspension for trace elements of a metabolite found in cocaine which is no longer even on the banned list. His suspension was cut from 4 years to a year with time served after it was determined that he didn't ingest cocaine knowingly. The kid was genuine in his protestations of innocence, but the Suns just couldn't remain involved with a player with the drugs smear and their list was being closely monitored by the AFL Commission with an inactive player not the right look. Goober played in the Palm Beach Lions semi-finalist QAFL side in 2020 and will play NEVFL for Southport Sharks in 2021. His brother Ashton, who played U18 Allies in 2019 alongside Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell, is another Sydney should keep an eye on. Their father Troy played in 2 QAFL premiership for Southport and is a Hall of Famer. If you haven't seen Goober play, think Shane Mumford with a porn moustache.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
No, but with Elijah Taylor gone there’s space for Paddy.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Josh Fahey has left the Suns and taken up a scholarship in Sydney, but it remains to be seen if GWS can gain access to him in the draft. He’s a top 10 talent and is going to be ready to play NEVFL as soon as they let him. He has been chosen in the AFL Academy, so he’s in the top 21 prospects.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
The draft isn’t over. The supplemental preseason selection period opens on Wednesday this week. Train on players will be announced soon. These guys won’t last.
Chris M
Guest
Thanks, Thomas, It sounds like you may have some interesting information to share in the future. Your Trade and Draft reviews of the other AFL teams have been interesting too, but I am more attuned to what is happening with my two hometown teams, the Swans more than GWS. I enjoyed your elaboration of how both the Swans and the teams with whom they exchanged draft selections had benefitted from the trades. It was insightful to learn that the Swans had exchanged picks into the sweet spot where the Bulldog's picks were wiped out by matching the bid on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Kinnear Beatson and his team are crafty indeed! Craftier than I previously realised.
Bandicoot
Roar Rookie
I hope the info that you are privy to is that we will take on McCartin in the pre season draft.
Bandicoot
Roar Rookie
He is Sydney's ruck division.
Footyguy
Guest
Amartey and McLean look ok honestly I'm not sure about them becoming elite players at the moment same with Jack Bell but the Sydney system is one of the best in the league so you never know A bloke who gets forgotten about a lot by Sydney swans supporters is Dylan Stephens. Pick 5 2019 We're all getting hyped about Campbell Gulden Don't forgot Dylan Stephens
Footyguy
Guest
I was disappointed when no one took Kaine Baldwin or Jackson Callow. Crazy North Melbourne didn't draft one of them because that's exactly what they need with the loss of brown if Nick larkey gets injured then it's going to be a long season
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Right you are. Confusing him with Jack Hiscox and Sam Naismith, I guess. Haven't been able to watch NEAFL in 18 months, so the names and faces are fading. I've also written 11 articles in 6 six days and some errors are creeping in that I'd normally be on top of.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
Hi Chris, Let's continue this conversation once train on squads are announced. I am privy to information that I can't share yet which you have touched on. It's good!
Chris M
Guest
Aliir Aliir was a pleasure and exciting to watch and his personality will be missed from Swans' games. He provided great value in a number of roles, in defence, in relieving the primary ruckman, and sometimes even playing as the No 1 ruckman. However, Aliir seldom seemed to be listed by journalists amongst the best on ground in the Swans' games that he played. Like all defenders do from time to time when they are out-positioned, Aliir sometimes seemed to struggle in the one-on-ones against monster forwards and give away free kicks, but he mainly held his own. Although they were two one-off instances, I recall seeing Tom McCartin out-body both Charlie Dixon and Tom Hawkins when he was moved to the Swans' defence later in the 2020 season. That is no mean feat when they are monster forwards and McCartin is only 193 cm, 89 kg and has only just now turned 21 years old at the end of December. So I have been asking myself, why was he strong enough to do that, while he seemed to be less effective while inside the forward line? Because Tom McCartin is till physically developing to maturity and he is not a monster, I wondered whether a possible answer may be that as a forward he is currently disadvantaged by playing on taller and more physically mature defenders who choose to spoil rather than compete for a mark with him. The absence of Lance "Buddy" Franklin in 2020 has also meant the other tall forwards in the team had to contend with higher class defenders than usual. While Tom McCartin may still end up being better value to the Swans as a defender in the long run, for the time being I would only pencil him into the defence, not ink him in. Perhaps the coaches could consider interchanging both Tom McCartin and Sam Reid between the forward line and the back line to see if McCartin can give more value to the team as a forward than a defender as he approaches greater physical maturity.
Glenn Dalton
Guest
Thomas, Sorry to burst your bubble on an otherwise reasonable article but Jack Maibaum is not a Sydney Academy kid. He played for Eastern Ranges in the Vic u’18’s. I think his original club was Rowville. As for Gulden, good judges believe that will play in the first round if he survives the pre season as he is a ball magnet with a big tank to go up & down the wings. His kicking is very good but not elite like Campbell