Six Nations set to go ahead as planned

I know that the Crusaders vs Highlanders game in SRNZ drew 100,000 viewers in the UK at 8am UK time (11-12 hours behind NZ I think). Do there is that. But it is too big a risk!

Wouldn't a night game in Auckland be breakfast time for the UK audience? Not ideal of course but not a bad time slot either.

The estimates of longevity of immunity continue to increase.... https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/moderna-ceo-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-effective-for-years/ar-BB1czg8M

Scotty, the time zone will be a killer! NZ is presenting as a safer option given Brisbane just went into three-day lockdown over the UK mutant strain. And a big group of people travelling halfway around the world in these times. In the end, they need to either close the gates or cancel/defer the tournament.

Hi, EFF. From what I have read, the spike protein on the new strain has mutated/changed in that it is able to bind to human cells (slightly or otherwise) easier. Transmission is eased but the effect is still the same.

Why not have the 6 Nations in either NZ or Australia? I know many NH fans may not like it but at least under this option the tournament can proceed instead of most likely being cancelled. Also this way they can play in front of crowds. I think in current times this may be the most viable solution.

I’d think any prospects of having the Lions play in front of fans in any country is fast disappearing. Time to bite the bullet, I think. - I am afraid that you will be correct fiwiboy....although i think the call will be made as late as possible. I have a tiny obsession about COVID19 and present monthly the key findings and the scenarios of how things my evolve across my company. As I understand the presence of COVID-19 antibodies is a good indicator of an immune response (and is easy to tests for), however the absence of COVID-19 antibodies do not equate to a loss of immune memory. I have included two recent articles that are both good reads and that supports that immunity memory to COVID-19 infection may be much long lived as functional immunity is driven by B Cells and T Cells as I described above.

Yes I do hope for SARUs sake that the Lions tour goes ahead but I have to admit it will also be a bit of Karma if it didnt. SA needs this tour as do SARU but what will be will be.....

Very good point about local revenues Jacko. I doubt SARU would be happy about missing 'their turn' if their Lions cycle were staged in the UK.

Thanks.....Yeah I cant see that being contractually acceptable or morally acceptable either...Not that morals seems to come into it these days but maybe Aus would appreciate it and get some wins and therefore some confidence from it...

France is not touring Aus. Wales is. It would be a weaker Wales team if the Lions tour goes ahead.

Neutral tbh Im less than convinced a vaccine will have the effect that they are hoping for....Also isnt france touring Aus in 2021? Nothing that affects other countries should be changed to suit SA.....

I agree Neil...Also the touring "Lions" dont get a major share of the revenue. That goes to the hosts so I think it would all end in court should it be in a different country and the LIONS tours are about way more for the host nation than the match day tickets. NZs economy gets a massive boost from these tours as there is around 50k Uk tourists spending big in every city they go to and Im sure SA would love to have that sort of boost this year regardless of what the SARU got from it. Unfortunately I cant see it happening but I can see a number of teams wanting to tour Aus and NZ and wanting to negotiate deals to do so..... may I suggest a 4 way tournament...Lions, NZ, Aus and SA in NZ with local fans only...Share the TV revenue equally like the TN did...That would require a 10 week quarantine...play...quarantine period for each team similar to the cricket sides touring Aus and NZ at the moment...

Eff, the research indicates that covid-19 produces low antibodies in survivors so "immunity" lasts about 3 months. Scientists also don't understand how "long covid" works either. The estimated death toll from herd immunity is about 1-2%: the bigger the population, the greater the death toll. And vaccination is not a cure. The UK is likely to remain under tier 5 lockdown until March (the Guardian). I'd think any prospects of having the Lions play in front of fans in any country is fast disappearing. Time to bite the bullet, I think.

JN the problem is postponing will affect many proposed tests between the ( 4 ) Lions nations and other nations so again it becomes a bit impossible to re-schedule.....Every postponement has a detrimental knock-on effect

For the same reasons I don't like the idea of a UK based Lions 'tour', a dilution of the entire concept touring France doesn't sit right either Neutral. Given the UK government's track record distributing something as simple as PPE, organising an effective testing regime or instigating timely actions, I wouldn't be holding my breath for UK travelers being particularly welcome anywhere anytime soon ....

Understand why it could happen in the UK CPM, but it just shouldn't - at least not under the guise of a Lions event. The whole point of these tours from a players perspective is the unique test of the actual tour itself and everything that goes with it. If you've ever toured as a fan, you'd know the uniqueness of that experience too. If SA could travel to the UK mid year to fan attended events (and that's a big if) then let them tour the home nations. I realise that would be very tough on all those players who might miss out on a Lions jersey, but it's an institution and tradition bigger than any player.

Surprised at the ease with which it was suggested Neil….particully as England is pretty-much in tier 5 lockdown anyway….Isnt that obvious?

COVID-19 is a coronavirus with different properties and therefore behaviours. Mutations of SARS-CoV-2 is nothing new, a new mutation is recorded about once a week however the pace and extend of mutations are far more limited than with influenza. The vaccines have been tested across a range of mutations and still recorded efficacy rates of 80%-95% which is much higher than the 60% we see with influenza. I expect that with the high efficacy rates that improvements in vaccines will focus on reducing the costs, development of single dose vaccine and removing the logistical issues such as low temperature storage. The Johnson & Johnson and Novovax vaccines should get emergency approval by next month and may overcome a lot of these issues with especially the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna). All the leading candidates target the spike protein which is a weakness. In the medium term we may see vaccines developed that that target two (or more) proteins and that should be longer lasting.

Herd immunity was already derided as strategy by all scientist... fiwiboy....what is discredited is the strategy to achieve herd immunity by the uncontrolled spread of the virus. This overwhelmed the medical system of countries that led to unnecessary deaths in Latin America and Sweden. Most scientists agree that herd immunity should be reached, vaccination is premised on reaching herd immunity to break the chain of infection (see link below). Infection and vaccination equip the body to better fight re-infection and we know that this ability my decline with time as the body forget how to fight reinfection. When people are vaccinated we infect the body with a weakened virus or parts of the virus that trains your body to recognise and build natural defences against infection. Most vaccinations target the spike protein. A more comprehensive defence mechanism is triggered by natural infection as the body's immune system recognise to varying degrees all four different proteins that form the overall structure of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: spike, envelope, membrane and nucleocapsid (N-protein). The body tend to make most anti-bodies to the N-protein, the part of the virus that mutates the slowest. In the few confirmed cases where individuals got re-infected by a different strain of COVID-19, the initial infection was mild and the subsequent infection less severe (often asymptomatic). It appears that if the initial infection is severe that the body develop a a stronger and longer lasting immune response. This still needs to be confirmed. However herd immunity by natural infection is most likely already at play in parts of Latin America (Amazon, Peru and Equador) and India (Dharavi slum of Maharashtra) where we have seen a decline in fatality rates and detected cases that is best explained by the effects of herd immunity. Immunity is a complex topic. The body's immune response are not only limited to the presence of COVID-19 antibodies but includes B-cells (that develop a memory on how to build antibodies when needed) and helper T-cells that fight the virus directly. Even experts admit that they do not fully understand how the body's immunity system works, however the presence of COVID-19 anti-bodies are only a small part of the total immune response. The longevity of immunity still needs to be confirmed as the virus has not been around long enough, however if is not unfair to expect a similar duration than what we have seen with other corona-viruses (12 months+) . The impact of mutations: SARS-CoV-2 mutates slowly with a new mutation recorded about once a week. The current set of vaccines have been tested against a range of mutations in different locations across the world. What is encouraging is that we recorded very high efficacy rates (80%-95%) vs the 60% we typically see with influenza vaccines. The latest mutations are more contagious and will increase the R0 value from 2-3 to around 4-5, however the most likely impact is that a larger proportion of the population would need to be vaccinated/infected before herd immunity breaks the transmission chain. Mutations also seems to impact nucleocapsid (N-protein) less than the other proteins which means that populations that reached herd immunity via infection may be better equipped to fight reinfection. All of this still needs to be confirmed.