“It’s good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that, and I know. But lately, I’m getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over.”
As a relatively young Wallabies fan watching us play the All Blacks, Tony Soprano’s words are all too familiar. As our closest and main rival, my first memories of Bledisloe Tests are when John Eales was still kicking penalties, Toutai Kefu was still scoring tries and surfing the internet while someone was on the home phone was still a big no-no.
However, I may have misinterpreted Tony’s words. What if I’ve been focusing on the wrong contest? What if the Wallabies and World Rugby’s best rivalry has been happening right under my very nose this entire time?
We know the other story already. New Zealand versus South Africa is up there as one of the greatest rivalries in World Rugby.
(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
Winners of the past four World Cups, they are the two most successful rugby nations over the past 14 years. Their dominance cannot be disputed. The clashes against each other have produced some of the most memorable Tests during this period and passionate fans from both nations will attest to this being the toughest and most exciting match-up that each team has on their calendar.
But behind this passion lies another rivalry that surpasses this. One that has been almost impossible to separate over the course of the last 28 years. I speak, of course, about the Wallabies versus the Springboks.
Going back through each result since we resumed playing Tests in 1992, I was astonished to see that we are almost identical in relation to results.
Some of the numbers are incredible. Sixty Tests played. Thirty wins for Australia, 27 for South Africa with three draws. The total points scored for Australia in this period is 1321 to South Africa’s 1304. An average scoreline of 22-22 (rounded, of course).
Those numbers are simply remarkable. This is not unique either, with each decade across almost 30 years producing similarly close averages.
1990s
| Team | Wins | Win percentage | Points scored | Average score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 7 | 50 | 293 | 21 |
| South Africa | 7 | 50 | 283 | 20 |
Draws 0
2000s
| Team | Wins | Win percentage | Points scored | Average score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 13 | 50 | 615 | 24 |
| South Africa | 12 | 46 | 539 | 21 |
Draws 1
2010s
| Team | Wins | Win percentage | Points scored | Average score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 10 | 50 | 413 | 30 |
| South Africa | 8 | 40 | 482 | 34 |
Draws 2
I decided to investigate other match-ups to see whether this was unique. When going through the majority of the Six Nations teams, as well as northern hemisphere versus southern hemisphere teams, I was unable to find any rivalries between the other major nations that are as evenly matched as the Boks and Wallabies over the same period.
The next closest I was able to find is Wales versus France with France winning 58.3 per cent of the time. England versus France (England 58.5 per cent) and England versus South Africa (South Africa 58.8 per cent) came in at a very close third and fourth respectively.
Clearly, the Wallabies and Boks are two teams who have proven to be the equal of the other.
As for the Springboks versus All Blacks? Not even close. Over the same period, the All Blacks and Boks have played 62 times with New Zealand winning 44 of those contests to South Africa’s 16 with two draws. That’s a 26 per cent win record for the Springboks.
And for the Wallabies against the All Blacks over the same period? A slightly better 27 per cent record.
‘But that was then and not now!’ I hear you cry. And maybe so. Perhaps it’s only our recent recollections that give the impression of this match-up being above all others.
So then how do these teams compare since 2010? Well, the Boks’ win percentage drops to 14 per cent while the Wallabies’ also plummets to 16 per cent. Not exactly an improvement.
(Jono Searle/Getty Images)
To be fair, both teams were able to give the All Blacks a bit more of a run for their money during the noughties and ’90s. South Africa were the pick of the noughties with a 33 per cent win record and the Wallabies were the pick of the ’90s, winning 41 per cent of the time.
Yet this still doesn’t hide the fact that neither team has been able to measure up as a competitive rival for the All Blacks in recent years, no matter how we try and spin it.
“All due respect, you got no f*****g idea what it’s like to be number one. Every decision you make affects every facet of every other f*****g thing. It’s too much to deal with almost. And in the end, you’re completely alone with it all.”
This statement from Tony Soprano is probably something All Blacks fans can relate to and I suppose it’s not entirely fair to eliminate them from this discussion. However, being the most dominant rugby team in the world across decades of Test matches makes it difficult to have any truly competitive rivalry.
In fact, since 2010, their most competitive rival in relation to winning percentage is actually England with 22 per cent.
So, if we are to speak of rivalries and contests, purely from a numbers perspective, then it’s tough to go past the Wallabies and Springboks clashes.
Soon, these two teams will once again lock horns for the Mandela Challenge Plate and I am sure that despite recent form from Australia, another hard-fought contest is on the cards. In fact, if history has taught us anything, we may as well flip a coin.
May the rivalry continue.
Broken Shoulder
Roar Rookie
This aged very well Colvin :laughing:
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Fox, I don't think I've ever encountered anyone on here quite so consistently grab the wrong end of the stick and shake it about so much! First of all you turn my conversation with others about how flakey England are result wise currently into a baffling rant about how good NZ are. Weird. And now you imagine some slant being made at the Wallabies when I'm simply pointing out one of the (many) vagaries of the ranking system. Namely, that when a team plays another of a much higher ranking, a loss doesn't register at all, but when they nick the odd win, it gives a disproportionate boost to their ranking. To explain further because you seem to be struggling, particularly in the back half of the professional era, Australia in particular have benefitted by playing NZ frequently, every year. Think of it like having a dice with 1 on five sides and a 6 on one of them. The more times you throw it, the more chance of a 6. All the 1's in between don't count, but the odd 6 wins you rankings big time. The same applies to a lesser extent in recent years playing the Boks so often. So, to be clear, it's not an insult to the Wallabies, in anyone's world but your own. Now, since you will still quite likely turn all of this into another irrelevant trumpet blow about the gods of NZ rugby or historic records on no consequence to my original observations you jumped in on, I'll decline to respond any further on this one with you, and wish the remainder of the weekend to be a splendid one for you. Cheers!
Fox
Roar Guru
Well Neil I think your insult to the Wallabies is somewhat misguided - they have won the WC twice , England only once ( the only NH side to ever win it quite frankly) England has only beaten NZ 8 times in over 100 years of rugby and one draw and only back-to-back once in 2002-3 and those two tests were 8 months apart. Yes Australia play the AB's more but they have beaten the AB's back-to-back ( and within a three week period or less) more than England ever has and I think the Boks as well from memory. Sure maybe sometimes they are not as good a side say Ireland or Wales or England are at given times but their global record is superior - at least they know how to win a WC more than once and England has had more than one opportunity to do it in a final and as for the rest of the NH side we are all waiting them to actually show us they can win it. No wonder they started importing Kiwi players who they could make eligible for Ireland - England - Wales and Scotland huh? Not to mention NZ and Australian coaches eh Neil? I rest my case. But if you beat the AB's next time we meet I will be the first to congratulate you - serious
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Distinctly got the impression it was the other way round, but hey. We now appear to be in completely different conversations ......
Fox
Roar Guru
Haha touched a chord did I Neil ? :laughing:
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Lol, you're such a cheer leader Fox. Always banging on about your historic records the minute you feel less than honoured. Mate, you simply got owned by England the last time the two met on neutral ground. The much vaunted Threepeat side were left stunned by an outfit that then went on to produce a totally flaky 6 nations. Just get over it. It happened. And it could easily happen again. And I totally get you don't get the logic behind England playing NZ more often improving the formers record. Or that Australia have consistently held higher world rankings than merited simply because they do. But that's OK. I'm not here to stretch you.
RugbyLover
Roar Rookie
Good article Broken Shoulder. Alan Jones said in one of his collumns a few months ago that he has some mates in SA (he reckons anyway) who told him they valued the Bok-Wallabies rivalry every bit as highly as the Bok-AB rivalry. TBH I wasn’t so sure when I read his article but after reading yours I can see why it may be so. A pretty close record even if some of the games haven’t been.
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes i was in hurry at work so yes fair point They would not beat them Well its a nice theory Neil but rankings are based on the wins you obtain against sides ranked above – below or below but close to you and right now the six nations ( including England) has 3 teams in the top 5 whereas the Rugby Championship only has two. Also your theory falls a bit short when its been a long time since any side in the world game North or South has beaten the AB’s back-to-back or even 2 out of three so I am not convinced on your theory and good luck beating the AB’s at Eden Park – lets face it – the only real rugby fortress in the world game – unbeaten there in 27 years and In 86 Test matches at the ground since 1921, the first being a 5-9 loss to South Africa, the All Blacks have lost only 10 times and their winning percentage is 86.47. Simply staggering stat for any team anywhere let alone rugby. they don’t lose very often in Christchurch ( before the earthquake) or Dunedin either and the 2015 WC put paid to any notion about Twickenham being a genuine Fortress – I mean honestly! So yeah you can play us more but not sure about your theory however.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Even anticipating typos I'm struggling to make sense of 'The would not NZ now' Fox, and the overall point of the remainder of your question in the context of this particular discussion. But to have a go at the second part anyway, when was the last time anyone did? So what? Staying with that question, I've said it many times before, (but without any practical hope of proving the hypothesis), if England were to play NZ as often and in the same season as say Australia do, their record against NZ would in a short space of time improve, to the point that they would challenge them for top spot regularly.
Fox
Roar Guru
On that we can agree - yes fair point
Broken Shoulder
Roar Rookie
Absolutely, and it was not my intention to have the headline be the summary of the whole article. Rivalries are more than numbers. There are historical, emotional, cultural and statistical aspects that form them. I only looked at this clash from a statistical view. 28 years, 60 test matches, 30 wins for Australia and an average score line of 22-22. The sheer closeness of these two teams over the years has made it a great modern-day rivalry. Is it the greatest? No, not in my opinion. But it at least makes it part of the discussion.
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes Broken Shoulder I hear what you are saying but equally that is my point - that - as the headline states - Is this the greatest modern day rivalry? - and I am saying that the history between the AB's and the Boks is what makes it transfer in todays greatest rivalry and if we want to talk modern day then lets looks at the professional era and since the WC - only two sides have won the WC three times and that is AB's and the Boks - though the AB's walk all over them in Tri-nations and Rugby Championship Trophies..But still - these two are the greatest past and yes - present - greatest rivalries in the modern game. For example the most anticipated test in the group stages of the last WC was the AB's v the Boks and with good reason. The Boks take the trophy this time round but the only team they didn't beat on the way there was the AB's - now that speaks eons about their rivalry in the modern game.
Broken Shoulder
Roar Rookie
That’s the point of the article. This is just one way to view a rivalry and one I found interesting. “if we are to speak of rivalries and contests, purely from a numbers perspective”
Fox
Roar Guru
The would not NZ now...let's face it Neil when was the last time England beat the All Blacks back-to-back in tests?
Fox
Roar Guru
You are construing close matches in recent years with suddenly a "greatest rivalry". Sorry but the history - and its not all on the filed - between the All Blacks and the Spring Boks makes it the greatest rivalry in the world game and the fact the two sides are the two best performing sides in well over a century of rugby. Australia just cannot come close to all the history on and off the filed. - end of story!
PatrickP
Roar Rookie
As an AB fan I completely agree with this, particularly giving Jordan a decent run. His only real frailty is defence though which needs to improve. Should be a fascinating game but the ABs pack dominating contact and the breakdown will be a big ask.
Tobokani Sebele
Roar Rookie
If the all blacks can dominate contact and the breakdown and just get scrum parity (line outs are a bit of a lottery), then they'll be cooking... My biggest concern with this all blacks team is that they want to play the flashy stuff and don't seem to respect the fundamentals of the game like the GOAT all black team(2010-2017), and the pack especially is nowhere near as good as that GOAT all black team... The Backs are still the best in the world though, and I really hope they give Will Jordan an extended run coz that kid is just special, but knowing your coach, hez gonna play Jordie Barrett on the Wing against the Boks ????????????
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@Tobokani Yes I agree again. I already noted most Bok fans don't care about winning ugly, or any other way either, you're only interested in winning. And yes have already said I'll not be watching the Boks. And you're right again that AB floggings of the WBs are predictable. But given that ABs are my no 2 team I win either way ..... and btw a 50 point win by AB's against WBs is always x50 more entertaining than watching the Boks play anyone :laughing: Let's see how Boks go against ABs in 2021 and a team who attacks them hard and doesn't play to their strengths like the Lions did. I'm hoping ABs by 50 :silly:
Obes
Guest
No, the Wallabies need an on ball mongrel 7. There are plenty to choose from but Hooper has held the RA to ransom with his obscenely over price tag so none have been selected, many have in fact been banished to never be seen again. Hooper has failed for years at breakdowns. It`s not his fault he cannot do it. The Wallabies will rise when he retires, so 2024 will be the start of a new promising era. It will be like 2011, before Hooper helped the Wallabies plummet down world rankings.
Tobokani Sebele
Roar Rookie
Tell you what, I'd rather watch a bore fest and win, rather than be like the Wallabies who keep taking 30 point hidings by trying to be 'exciting'... Beating The same Argentina team that beat the all blacks last year by 20 points twice in a row is no mean feat... You're not forced to watch Bok games just like I'm not forced to watch Bledisloe blowouts (which have gotten predictably boring by the way)...