And then there were four.
The identity of this year’s NRL grand finalists will be known this weekend, with the preliminary finals to decide who faces off for the ultimate prize at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday, October 3.
Fresh off a week’s break each, the Melbourne Storm and South Sydney Rabbitohs will start as the favourites to progress to the final match of the season, but they will both face serious challenges from the Penrith Panthers and Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, respectively.
All four clubs will be flying the flag for the locked-down states of New South Wales and Victoria, and while one Sydney club is guaranteed to be represented in the grand final next week, the Storm will be keen to continue their quest for consecutive titles.
Last week in Mackay, the Panthers outlasted the Parramatta Eels in the first western Sydney finals derby since 2000, winning by 8-6 following a scoreless second half, while the Sea Eagles put paid to the Roosters’ 2021 campaign with a convincing 42-6 victory.
Both preliminary finals will this weekend be played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, with the venue to also host the decider for the first time as it is not possible for it to be played at Stadium Australia, as has been the case since 1999, due to the COVID-19 lockdown in Sydney.
The first will see Wayne Bennett look to extend his farewell season at Redfern when the Bunnies face the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, while the other is a rematch of last year’s grand final between the Storm and Panthers.
Here is your preview to the two preliminary finals.
South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Friday, September 24, 7:50pm
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Last meeting in a final: Rabbitohs won 34-26 at Stadium Australia, 2019 first semi-final.
This season: Rabbitohs won 26-12 at Lottoland in Round 2.
It is at least seven years since either the Rabbitohs or Sea Eagles appeared in a grand final, and that drought, one way or another, is bound to end this Friday night.
Wayne Bennett’s farewell season in the NRL is another step closer to its fairytale finish, with his Bunnies earning a week off thanks to an upset 16-10 win over the Penrith Panthers in their qualifying final over one week ago.
Tries on either side of halftime, as well as four goals from five attempts from the serviceable boot of Adam Reynolds, saw the Pride of the League reverse two losses to the mountain men from this season, as well as from last year’s preliminary final.
Adam Reynolds is waving goodbye to Redfern. (Photo by Speed Media/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
They are now into the penultimate weekend of the season for the fourth consecutive year, and for the sixth time in the past decade, and so they will be hoping to make it fourth time lucky having fallen at this stage in each of the past three years.
Aside from last year’s prelim, they also fell to the Roosters in the final NRL match played at the since-demolished AlliStadium Australia in 2018, while they also fell to the Canberra Raiders in the nation’s capital in 2019.
Further, they also missed out on a berth in the 2013 decider when they were stopped in their tracks by the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, whom they face at Suncorp Stadium this Friday night.
Bruised and battered following their qualifying final loss to the Melbourne Storm, the Silvertails hit back with a 42-6 demolition of the Sydney Roosters, with Tom Trbojevic scoring two tries and winning his individual battle against NSW Origin fullback James Tedesco.
Not only did they settle a score against the Chooks after they copped a 46-4 hiding back in Round 1, it also proved how good this side can be with Turbo in the side, the fullback having missed the first four matches of the season due to a careless hamstring injury.
While he will prove to be the x-factor come this Friday night, for the Bunnies there is a major incentive to win and it’s not just their desperation to reverse their preliminary final curse – it’s also to send Wayne Bennett and Adam Reynolds off as premiership winners.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final, and the chance to fly the flag for Sydney.
For the loser: season over and a summer to ponder what could’ve been.
Prediction: Rabbitohs by six points.
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
Saturday, September 25, 4:00pm
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Last meeting in a final: Storm won 26-20 at Stadium Australia, 2020 grand final.
This season: Panthers won 12-10 at Panthers Stadium in Round 3, Storm won 37-10 at Suncorp Stadium in Round 20.
In order to avoid a clash with the AFL grand final, which this year is being played in a twilight timeslot at Optus Stadium in Perth, the other preliminary final, between the Storm and Panthers, will be held in the late-afternoon timeslot.
It is a rematch of last year’s grand final, in which the Storm burst out of the blocks in the first half before holding off a furious Panthers fightback to win 26-20 and cement themselves as one of the most successful teams of the past decade, along with the Roosters.
This time though, the two teams, who finished 1-2 on the ladder for the second straight year (though it was the Panthers who finished top last year), will have to battle it out for a berth in next week’s decider, rather than for the title.
Craig Bellamy’s side go in the fresher of the two, having dispatched of the Sea Eagles by 40-12 in its qualifying final to earn the weekend off, during which they would’ve seen the Panthers struggle through a brutal semi against the Parramatta Eels in Mackay.
It ended a try apiece but a Nathan Cleary penalty goal on halftime ultimately proved to be the difference, as the mountain men won their way through to the penultimate weekend for the second consecutive year.
This was despite Brian To’o being ruled out of the clash due to an ankle injury, while there is also a minor injury concern around Cleary, though the latter should take his place in the side for the preliminary final.
Isaac Lumelume of the Storm (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It is one-apiece between the two sides this season, with the Panthers avenging their grand final loss with a 12-10 win in Round 3, a match in which Viliame Kikau prevented a certain Storm try right at the death, while the Storm returned serve with a 37-10 win in Round 20.
Though the Panthers will be battle-hardened following its semi-final win over the Eels, the Storm’s week off and their starpower are just hard to ignore here, and they should win through to a fifth grand final in six years.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final at Suncorp Stadium.
For the loser: season over and a summer to ponder what could’ve been.
Prediction: Storm by 18 points.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
All fair KenW, and not painting you as a Manly basher. I just keep reading about the flat track bullies stuff and it does irk me. On their run up the ladder there were plenty of games where they were outsiders, and went onto win. Hindsight shows that the Eels or Titans may not have been great, but you can only play what is in front of you. Some good money could have been made for those that now talk about Manly's "easy" draw. I guess we find out on Friday night where they now sit.
KenW
Roar Rookie
So the top teams were leading coming into the back part of each game and then scored extra tries to win comfortably. Top teams have a habit of doing that, and leaving other teams going 'I almost had them'. It's not revisionist to point that out that Manly ultimately lost all 4 games against the other remaining teams by margins of 10-40 points Your point about most of their games against the other Top 4 teams happening early in the season is a good one, and perhaps Manly can pull something out. I feel like I've unintentionally backed myself into the role of Manly basher here, when I'll actually be cheering for them to take Souths. I just won't be tipping that way
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Yep the "One Man Team" with 2 players in the Top 5 in Dally M voting.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Precisely right. Outside of the first few rounds and a disastrous first finals game they held their own when playing top sides. I guess the knockers must’ve bored even themselves with the one man team rubbish
eagleJack
Roar Guru
"Manly didn’t manage a close game with any of them." Guess it depends on your definition of close Rd 2 v Souths : 14-12 with 15mins to go before Souths scored 2 late tries. Still annoyed Saab got chased down in that one. Rd 8 v Panthers: 22-16 with 3mins to go. Crichton scores to seal it. Manly pushed the Panthers that day, with Turbo only a few games back from injury Rd 21 v Storm: 20-18 with 10mins to go. Munster scores and it's over. But Manly had their chances. Yes, they still lost these games against their fellow Top 4. But I'm not really enjoying the revisionist history lessons being handed out at the moment. Their only game against Souths was in Rd 2. They played their 2 games against the Panthers in Rd 4 & 8. A lot has changes since then. For all teams.
KenW
Roar Rookie
I opened my predictions with 'Anything can happen...' so I'm onboard there. And I really hope for some close games and unpredictability. I'm neutral - or more accurately, I dislike all of the teams remaining! - so I'm just in it to see some good footy. It just looks very predictable from here.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
I am happy to acknowledge Manly’s shortcomings this year but to be as dismissive as Girdler is just plain dumb, even for him. Even suggesting that they’re the weakest side in the four ignores Penriths current form and Souths couple of thrashings by Storm and Penrith this year. Not to mention the Eels beating the Storm twice. Too much is made of form and favouritism this time of the season. Any one of those sides can have a good or bad day at the office in finals. We heard all year that it was going to be a replay of 2020.. well that’s not happening.. the same people are now saying that the Storm are unbeatable.
KenW
Roar Rookie
I usually like Girdler's comments actually but that one was over the top. Manly have played well and deserve their place in the Top 4. I just feel that they are the weakest of the remaining teams. Parra isn't relevant, they're not there, and they lost 10 games during 2021. Melbourne, Penrith and Souths are still there and have lost 10 games combined in 2021. Manly didn't manage a close game with any of them.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Girdler a bit strong? Not between the ears! Weren’t the Eels a genuine top four side when Manly piled points on them twice this year? As for not beating the Storm? That’s a big list
KenW
Roar Rookie
Anything can happen and all that but it all feels very predictable from here on in. Souths v Manly - Souths, possibly by a fair bit. I think Girdler was a little strong calling them 'flat track bullies' but Manly's position in the final 4 was not earned against any teams remaining in the comp. They are 0-4 this year against them with 10 points being their closest losing margin. Feels like Souths have peaked at the right time of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if they do a number on Manly Melb v Penrith - Storm, possibly by a fair bit. For mostly the same reasons as Joe Frost's article today. Penrith just don't have it together right now and look as vulnerable as they have in 2 seasons. Melbourne on the other hand, have just continued to grow throughout the season and currently seem imperious. Possible GF - Melb v Souths - Storm, possibly by a fair bit. Souths going well but, especially with Mitchell missing, lack the strike of the Storm. Even Bennett's mastery of mind and morale can't erase the mental demons of Melbourne beating Souths 50-0 earlier in the season.
Walter Black
Guest
Souths to beat Manly in a bruising encounter. A Reynolds conversion being the only difference. Souths by 2 Melbourne to defeat the evil empire and set up a mouth watering clash of the Titan Coaches. The Panthers will pull out every dirty trick in the book (and the Panthers have a very big dirty tricks book) but it won't be enough to beat the mighty Storm - Storm 12+
Avatar
Roar Guru
CORRECTION: “…in the final NRL match played at the since-demolished AlliStadium Australia in 2018” That should read “Allianz Stadium in 2018”.