Why Australia are bigger favourites to retain the Ashes than you think

By Kyu / Roar Rookie

Is Australia dealing with a storm it just does not need before the first Ashes Test commences?

The events of the past few days have put a cloud over the Australian men’s Test cricket team, but maybe it will end up being little more than a minor distraction that, once through, will become wide-open visibility.

Let us be honest and state the obvious: Tim Paine was on his last legs as a Test player. As captain he had been quite brilliant to steady a ship that was precariously close to capsizing. He was the saving grace of Australian cricket. To change to brand of a business is one thing, but to change it for a cricket team that thrived on consistently intimidating opponents was a fair challenge. He was the perfect man for this role within Justin Langer’s re-endorsement plan.

But was he a great asset to have as part of our Test team? His wicket-keeping got him into the team, but we all knew his age was catching up to him. Is his batting good enough to nail him a position in the line-up? There is no way this could be justified.

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Can we also take a second to acknowledge the selectors for their selection variety of wicketkeepers? Tasmania, now South Australia – and it could be a Victorian next. So although the debacle looks cloudy now, in hindsight it might be the best thing that happened for the team.

There is a lot of talk about the Test team not getting enough practice with the red ball. But did everyone miss the T20 World Cup win Australia just achieved? I am not going to pull up the odds of them even reaching the semi-finals, but it would have been very low. It goes to show an innate nature within this team – a championship mentality. And this is not a mentality that can be bought nor instilled easily during a one-year coaching tenure.

David Warner as an individual personifies the fight that exists in this team. After being pretty much dumped by his IPL team as captain midway through the season his head was not in the right place. You can see this with his performances in the first few games of the T20 World Cup. I don’t know if it was therapy or multiple batting sessions that realigned him, but it showcased how strong he must be mentally to overcome that.

(Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

Let’s also not forget that Warner the batsman has not been the same since his comeback into the side for the previous Ashes tour to England. While Steve Smith created another mountain for someone else to climb, Warner was being dismissed by Stuart Broad for fun. His performances picked up in the coloured shirts, but his doggedness has been missing in the Test arena. We cannot wait for the aggression to come back to the level where it gives him the belief that he can open better than anyone in the world.

With him being declared the player of the tournament in the T20 World Cup, we cannot wait to see him pinging the red ball past Stuart Broad. And giving him a stare. When was the last time we had a genuine stare on a cricket pitch that showed someone meant business? What better way to celebrate an Australian summer than seeing David Warner do a Toyota-style leap after a Test century.

Although the practice with the red ball has not been plentiful, the confidence will be higher in the Australian batting camp due to a collective win for the ages in that World Cup. For all the arguments on how white-ball cricket is not adequate practice for red-ball cricket, all we want is for our boys to walk onto the field already feeling like winners.

The Australian bowling attack is like a pack of rottweilers that cannot wait to be unleashed. Although India’s pace attack has been more dominant statistically than any other attack, the Australian attack on their day is still the best in the world. Pat Cummins, Mitch Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon will be looking to prove this to the world again. They know they hold the key to an Ashes domination. Forget Steve Smith scoring Test hundreds for fun; Australia is the country where a pack of bowlers need to take 20 wickets on relatively flat wickets.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Although India slightly outperformed Australia in this department last year, they will have been in the toolshed sharpening their knives. Nathan Lyon will be the key factor. He will no doubt remember how he could have stumped Ben Stokes in that famous Ashes Test in 2019. With the other three fast bowlers keeping the work tight, we will see a lot of wickets fall to Nathan Lyon as batsmen try to release pressure.

That brings me to Mitchell Starc. I hope he brings life to a flat pitch with some reverse swing and takes away at the English batsmen. We cannot forget he will be the one to emulate Mitchell Johnson due to similar actions, and it is very possible for him to have a similar Ashes series. But I do hope Pat Cummins realises that Starc is not meant for the holding role. He was not born to be Glenn McGrath, so don’t try to make him one. We want to see Starc intimidate batsmen. The away series he had against Sri Lanka in 2015 still has to be one of the best performances by a fast bowler ever.

The Australian attack is also about to face an English batting line-up that has not enjoyed too much top-order success, barring Joe Root. Every batsman in the line-up seemed at one point during the English season to have had a question mark over their spot in the side. The recently unconcluded series between India and England in England was fascinating due to the dominance of the Indian bowlers on foreign soil. The English batsmen did not look comfortable, and nor did it look like runs were going to come easily.

English cricket has definitely tipped the balance of priorities towards white-ball cricket over red-ball cricket, which is evident in cricket results over the past few years. Let’s hope this is the potent combination needed for our bowlers to knock over this below-par English batting line-up.

So Australia are once again the clear favourites going into the series, although this might not be as clear to the untrained public eye. The way David Warner lines up for his first delivery at the Gabba will set the tone for our innings in the Ashes, with our bowlers then set to knock down the rest of the pins.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2021-12-13T10:31:10+00:00

Kyu Karawita

Roar Rookie


I am so glad that this was disapproved haha. :thumbup: I don't think many expected that performance from Travis Head, I was there when he walked in and I was like here's another collapse. But he batted amazingly ! Barmy Army were in their numbers, it was quite good to watch.

AUTHOR

2021-12-13T10:28:37+00:00

Kyu Karawita

Roar Rookie


We all know Starc can get wayward. His spell on the second session of Day 3 allowed Root and Malan to really settle in. I felt he could've been used in shorter bursts and Cam Green could have been given a better go.

AUTHOR

2021-12-13T10:24:40+00:00

Kyu Karawita

Roar Rookie


I do hope Carey takes to it, he looked good in the first innings.

AUTHOR

2021-12-13T10:23:48+00:00

Kyu Karawita

Roar Rookie


The phrase 'no way' could be a bit harsh, you're right. But it wouldn't have been a wise move to continue with Paine as a solution, just not sustainable. I think we all appreciated what he had done as captain.

2021-12-08T00:47:28+00:00

JohnB

Roar Rookie


Averages aren't everything, and can be distorted by circumstances, and the bating demands on keepers have changed, but just noting that 32.6 for Paine is historically a high average for a regular Australian keeper. Brad Haddin managed a fraction of a run higher only (32.98) & Adam Gilchrist is a complete oulier (47.6), but more commonly you can point since 1970 to Brian Taber (16), Rod Marsh (26.5), all 3 WSC era test keepers (Rixon, Maclean, Wright) averaged in the teens, Tim Zoehrer 20.5, Greg Dyer (stretching the definition of "regular) 21.8, Ian Healy (27.4). Even two who played often as specialist batters, Wayne Phillips and Matthew Wade couldn't beat 32.6 averaging 32.3 and 29.9 respectively. Before 1970, regular keepers averaged in the teens or just into the 20s. The only one I can see (on a quick look through the list of Australian test players) who kept and averaged more was Billy Murdoch (32) but I think he played as a batter only much of the time.

2021-12-08T00:34:53+00:00

ken gargett

Guest


long way to go but at the moment england are 3-11 and root is gone. so all the nonsense you've been sprouting for ages about england is not really coming to pass and the issue you have resolutely ignored, the quality of the aussie fast bowlers and what they'll do to the english batsmen, is proving to be something that you might have considered a little more.

2021-12-07T23:29:15+00:00

Frank delosa

Guest


It has been a good few years with the urn but due to : poor selections :angry: wafer thin batting :angry: :sick: inability to move on from oldies like warner, has-beens like Starc and "good blokes" like Harris and Head :thumbdown: rainy conditions :shocked: we will lose savagely to ENG in our own background :angry: :angry: :angry:

2021-12-07T23:20:54+00:00

Frank delosa

Guest


Disagree, the conditions and bowling power of ENG will dismantle our shoddy openers and extremely weak middle (Head, Green, Carey) with absolute ease AUS openers to make less than 20 partnership Barmy Army already handing out "Crying Smith" masks to wear. Also handing out pieces of sandpaper to wave around at Warner. He will crack again. Much like the SAF crowd handed out Sonny Bill Williams masks that made Warner go berserk and strike Quentin De Kok (anti-BLM guy) in the underbelly of the stadium.

2021-12-07T23:07:03+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Interesting comment about how Cummins will use Starc. you would think on one hand that a bowling captain will have a better rapport and feel for his bowlers, but conversely, he probably doesn't face them as much in the nets to know how they are going, compared to a batting captain.

2021-12-07T23:06:09+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


The contenders' first class averages are all around or only slightly higher than Paine's test mark, so it is not a certainty that they will outperform him in the test arena. I think Carey will, to me he looks made for test cricket, but it's no certainty.

2021-12-07T22:22:50+00:00

JGK

Roar Guru


Let alone the bookmakers.

2021-12-07T21:31:37+00:00

Tempo

Roar Rookie


Is his batting good enough to nail him a position in the line-up? There is no way this could be justified. I think this is a little harsh on Paine. His value as a batsman was certainly up for debate, but saying there’s no way to justify it? He averaged 40 in a low scoring series last summer and was man of the match for his batting in Australia’s only win. And a 32 average for a No.7 batsman is acceptable without being spectacular. So there was at least a reasonable case for his place in the side, even if others also had strong or arguably stronger cases.

2021-12-07T17:17:01+00:00

FunBus

Roar Rookie


Well, it's fairly 'clear to the eye' of the pundits in England who make Australia overwhelming favourites.

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