With the 2022 season all but behind us, we are left with the run to the 2023 Rugby World Cup once everyone reports back for duty in 2023.
For perhaps the first time in RWC history the tournament will begin with up to six sides having very real claims to win it, and with the current top four sides all on one side of the draw, the outlook is genuinely uncertain.
I have spent what seems an inordinate amount of time pulling apart the poorer aspects of the All Blacks game plan in 2022 and thought a browse through the progress of current World Cup holders South Africa might be interesting in contrast.
A quick results scene-setter: South Africa have lost ten games in the last two years, equalling the worst run of results over two years by any World Cup holder, with England at Twickenham still to come. With their recent record against Ireland, France, New Zealand, Australia and England at a reported 27 per cent, you can see where the slide from No. 1 in the world ranking, down to fourth, has come from.
There are some serious changes in the game plan from the coaching team over the last couple of years that are worth a look.
Let’s start with the positives.
South Africa now have some serious pace weapons in the back three and are prepared to use them more regularly. In an era of kicking in play for distance, South Africa are increasingly likely to run the back, Willie le Roux will take the distributor role in the middle of the park and try to release the genuine strike weapons they have on either side.
The question is: does this addition complement their more traditional style, or is it in fact walking into the trap of overplaying in the wrong parts of the park, as Ian Foster’s All Blacks had done until the recent strategy changes?
It was rare for the 2019 Springboks to lose the turnover count in any game. Indeed they not only consistently led this critical count but did so by an average of some 40 per cent. However, across 2022 this very real platform of Springboks rugby has become negative as often as it is positive, and there have been some serious counts against them.
A quick disclaimer here on the numbers.
I have used nine games from 2019, excluding the World Cup minnows, and have used 11 games from 2022. I would argue that hiding behind the stat swings that games against the lower ranked sides provide would not be addressing the issues in how they are now playing.
In fact all of the things that would be regarded as givens for a South African side are on the turn. They are conceding more penalties – in fact four times as many in matches this year, more than their highest count in 2019 – they kick less, their tackle rate is dropping, average tries scored are down and average tries conceded against the good sides are way up, all of which coincide with the dramatic flip in the turnover stats.
(Photo by Adam Davy/PA Images via Getty Images)
It’s almost a mirror of how the key stats began to turn against the All Blacks when they played way too much from hand from 2018 onwards, and it’s a bad cul-de-sac to go down.
The forwards are an interesting study. No-one is going to deny the physical effort and focus that a Springboks No. 8 brings to every match. They are still all sorts of a handful in the tight stuff. But the days of scrums for penalties, kicks for the line and mauls for tries are now seriously over for this group when faced with the better sides.
The tight five and their bench replacements will always keep the side in contests, but I have serious concerns about the structure of the loose forwards and how they are used.
Over the years, I have posited that the reason that the All Blacks have had such an outstanding record against the Republic is that they have had the ball and ruck speed to be able to peel away those loosies from the pack and isolate and attack the tight five in the open.
Both Argentina and Australia recently showed the same ability to expose those ruck edges.
Australia going straight through the middle for a try from 1:27 on the following clip.
And Argentina does something remarkably similar from 4:32 on this clip.
South Africa needed a rebuild in the loosies after the World Cup and they were late, spending too much time trying to find a way for Duane Vermeulen to fit back in.
They then settled on a like-for-like replacement, choosing to continue having the dual role of lock-blindside and leaving way too much of the actual traditional loose forward work to captain Siya Kolisi, who while still turning some quality performances, finished the Rugby Championship with a tackle rate of 80 per cent for the year to date and is just not getting his hands on the ball in transition nearly enough.
The structure of the South African loose forwards does not have enough lateral defence speed to contain the way good sides are now playing and their red zone conversion issues reflect the lack of diversity in the trio when compared to, for example, Ireland, France and New Zealand, who have quicker trios, with as much size and are a greater threat both sides of the ball.
Without going through all three loose forward groups, Gregory Alldritt, Ardie Savea and Caelan Doris are good examples of the differences in skill sets now being brought to the top level. It is a game reality that cards are going to take teams down to 14 on a regular basis, and this, combined with a concerted refereeing effort to speed the game up, requires greater lateral speed in the loose forward trio than South Africa are currently putting out.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The first stat I look at every week is total metres carried by the loose forwards, as it so often seems to be an excellent indicator of outcomes. In the losses to Ireland, France and New Zealand the average negative for South Africa averaged out at approx 30 metres per game.
If Sam Cane spent the first part of his season trying to cover the shortfalls in the tight aspects of his own loose forwards, then captain Kolisi found himself stuck between two stools trying to be the transition manager in a side where he was getting little help out of Nos. 6 and 8. It’s worth noting that at the end of the Rugby Championship Cane had thrown 39 passes in true linkman fashion, while Kolisi had distributed 11.
It’s almost like watching a North American football team. There is a forward (defence) aspect and an improving wide back division (offence), both of excellent quality, but in the dynamic game that is rugby union, especially today’s iteration, there is a need to constantly knit them both together, and the loose forward issues are compounded by a lack of creativity in the Nos. 9 and 10 slots.
While the tight five and midfield remain world-class and the back three are becoming a real strike weapon combination, that gap between Nos. 6 and 10 looks like being an anchor that is going to drag on higher level performance.
They have a plethora of halfbacks who appear to be directed to largely play the same – watching Jaden Hendrikse shovel the ball out in a similar fashion to the glacial Conor Murray in the Ireland match was disappointing – and the commitment to attack in the wider channels has not been backed up with the development of individuals or a game plan that can run this effectively from the No. 10 slot despite there being some serious talent available. One would not expect that the return of Handre Pollard is going to be the required solution.
The lack of creativity close to the forward pack is holding this South African side back from being able to dominate over longer periods and thus generate repeat score momentum that helps to put games away with red zone efficiency. This inability is demonstrably keeping sides in the game against South Africa deep into the second stanza, making too many matches a late-game lottery.
Is the development of the wider attacking game a coaching recognition of the reduction in the points-scoring effectiveness of the pack, or is the levelling off of the pack performance related to a refocus of effort into the backs? And is there time between now and the World Cup to make this seamlessly work?
South Africa will no doubt be there or thereabouts at the final stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. How much of a threat they are to the big show may be will depend on getting contributions between blindside flanker and first five-eighth into good order and getting those marginal match-deciding statistics to swing back in their favour.
bottom feeder
Guest
A lot more cards given overall nowadays .A YC each international par for the course now .Do you have similar stats for other teams these last few years ?
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
Both in France! Yes I remember the Faf agreement, and I think WLR at Wasps.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
They were in the wider group. Not sure if Lood is there as well. Vincent Koch may also head there if I am not mistaken. Boks had the agreement they eould use someone like Faf (who is going to Japan) but not in all matches and that Sale would also not overplay him.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
Sale don’t have any current springboks any more! Just a fistful of du Preezes!
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
The French and English don't care since they pay the players they will have them. England have an agreement with their clubs but for the South Africans there's no remorse so you get what you got over the weekend. Sale Sharks used to somewhat honour some agreements with the Bok players after some Rassie discussions but that seems to have gone out the Window post BIL 2021.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Thanks JD Kiwi, It remains to be seen if the players get rest. The issue is compounded after two touring teams from Ireland and Scotland had jippo guts so they postponed the games instead of forfeiting them. Investigations mentioned they caught the bugs over there so no Suzie.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Indeed.
Peter
Guest
Really? Boks have brought in a host of new players and dabbled with new combinations. Yes the AB’s have shored up their front row, because it was a major weakness. They are however persisting with Whitelock, Rettalick, Cane and Taylor. Boks have depth in almost wvery position, with players able to slot in ious positions. We are well set for the WC, ans don’t make the mistake of thinking Rassie’s actions detract from that. We pummelled the Poms with that scanario prevalent. We comfortable held a full strength French pack with 7 players in our pack. That should be an ominous warning to our opponents
Muglair
Roar Rookie
Just goes to show how rugby reflects real life JD :laughing: Although we shouldn't write off the methodology until the RWC is about to start. Plenty of 6N and RC games can effect the final rankings before September.
bottom feeder
Guest
Pollard has now become the question.
Peter
Guest
You think not? Ox in for Beast, like for like. Kitshoff still there. Mbonambi, Marx still there. Malherbe, Koch, Nyakane and T du Toit all available. Lood, Eben, Mostert with the addition of Jenkins Kolisi, PSDT, Kwagga, Wiese, Louw, Roos and even Vermeulen. Boks matched the French macro pack with 7 men. Surely you jest?
Peter
Guest
AB’s played Japan, Wales (out of sorts), Scotland and England ???????????????????????????? They huffed and puffed vs both Japan and Scotland and drew with England. Boks played Ireland, France, Italy and England. Emphatically smashed Italy, comprehensively beat England and could arguably have beaten both Ireland and France. They have good depth in most positions. So I would say they are very much in an upward trajectory. Boks have been experimenting alot, and it has affected results, but heading to the WC, they are solid.
Peter
Guest
Matt is a good coach, but so is Daan Human. How many packs can match the French pack with 7 players? Felix Jones is a good fit for the Boks too. Nienaber is shoving your derision right back at you. Rassie is the analyst. Nienaber the defence guru :silly:
Petee
Guest
Now it all makes sense. If 365 is your yardstick. Despite your negativity. Nienaber is on a 61% win rate. The boks have experimented with players and combinations, and have built up enough depth to be a real force at the WC. We have depth in almost any position. We are 2/4 on this tour. Both losses were marginal, vs the 1 and 2 ranked teams on their home ground, and arguably could have gone the other way. We beat England without a host of players. Yes NZ had a better tour, but vs who? Scotland, Wales and Japan? A draw vs England? Boks have stability, and good depth. And very settled in their combinations and contingency plans.
Peter
Guest
I disagree! Boks have quietly gone about building impressive depth. They have dabbled with various strategies and have the core to really be a force at the WC, in a difficult pool. Depth in almost all positions! In the absence of Pollard and Am, the Boks now have Libbok and Damien Willemse that can slot in a 10 with different styles. Am remains our best 13, but Kriel and de Allende showed they can comfortably play there. With all of Lood, Pollard, Am, PSDT likely to be back, the Boks will be in a good space. We beat the English comfortably without stalwarts in Koch, Lood, PSDT, Wiese, Reinach, Pollard, Am, and Kolbe.
Peter
Guest
Are SA still the side the furtherest back, with a chance to win the WC? I doubt it! We should have beaten France, narrowly lost to Ireland and destroyed England. Without Pollard and Am, Kolbe also gone. Without a host of players vs England. France have depth, but they didn’t exactly convince this autumn. Ireland derail without Sexton. The AB’s blow hot and cold. Their autumn results look spectacular, but played easier tests. Wallabies without a plethora of players could be a real threat.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Thank you Highlander for taking the time to pen this article. I found most of your observations spot on. I have copied and pasted some interesting rugby opinions. Former All Black Justin Marshall “I certainly feel and agree that the top two teams in the world at the moment are France and Ireland, and it’s pretty hard to separate both of them. They have got quality across the park,” Marshall said. “Where New Zealand have not adapted is we have not realised the game is now all about big, strong ball carriers, men that are hard to move away from the breakdown, and we haven’t adjusted to that. “We are still a little light in those areas. I look at the back row of Ireland and France in particular, they are just big, men. The Argentinians, they are just big brutes. “Big ball runners like that command two tacklers usually which leaves you defensively short, and we haven’t got that type of ball carrier at the moment. “So, in a nutshell, I agree with you, the laws have slightly changed which is allowing teams to be a little less mobile but bigger and tougher, and then secondly it is because I think the All Blacks have fallen away.” France Defence coach Shaun Edwards: “ “It’s best to attack South Africa off first-phase strike moves, when all the forwards are still around the scrum or the lineout. When the entire Springbok team get into defensive mode it is very difficult to make yardage up the middle because their players are so big and strong. You don’t make many yards when you are running straight into guys such as Eben Etzebeth. It’s so difficult to have success by launching runners straight off the scrumhalf against the Boks. You need to catch them before they find that structure.” Edwards also warned England to watch out for 82-cap Willie le Roux, who will start at fullback for the Boks on Saturday. “Le Roux was doubling up as a second flyhalf against us, orchestrating a lot of their attack. How do you defend against that? We worked hard on the connection in our defensive unit, with no one jumping out of the line.” Perhaps (almost certainly because I am biased) I don't share the same pessimism of South Africa's chances in the World Cup. I do agree the Boks have persisted with Vermeulen too long. However I think his replacement put his hand up last night against England. Evan Roos is raw and will make mistakes but I believe he will have a long career with the Boks. I also think the Boks have unearthed some new talent this year. Kurt-Lee Arendse is an obviously example. Canan Moodie is another. Damian Willemse is full of running. For me having Handre Pollard injured has been a blessing, because it's forced the Boks to find some playmakers. Boks have done well without Lukhanyo Am this year in my opinion.
Rusty
Roar Guru
Traditionally - yes. When you have PSDT 2m/120kg, Kolis 1.88 105k and Wiese/DvM 1.90/110kg 1.93/120kg - then thats a fair bit of mass. Kwagga at 1.8 and 95 comes one and you lose the weight but gain pace, energy and more on the ball skill. I was a doubter but he has really delivered over the last few years. What I have noticed is that more of the heavy lifting then moves to the locks which is why EE and Mostert playing 80 or near it are so important. Another reason why I dont think Orie can be the backup 5 - too passive. You basically need another energy bunny like Mostert or Nortje to cover
Dale
Roar Rookie
He's still is with SA though.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
Hi Mugs, I'd say that it's as simple as this. Getting the draw down early makes life easier for the administrators, which they consider to be far more important than one which gives fairer competition for the players and better competition for the fans.