Roosters 2023 Outlook: Anything less than a Grand Final is a failure for Robinson's star-studded side

The Sydney Roosters were a hard team to get a handle on last year. Back to relatively full strength after an injury-decimated 2021, they decided not to play any of their best players in the trials and subsequently took ages to get going, before roaring into form late.

Then, as it looked like they were set for a Finals charge, they met eternal rivals Souths in the first week and, seven sin bins later, that was that. Chaos reigned.

So were they any good? Well, of course, yes. The Roosters, in case you missed it, are always pretty good because they have one of the best rosters and one of the best coaches and all the structural stuff they need to excel.

Had they defeated Souths in that final, they would have almost certainly cruised by Cronulla a week later and reached a prelim. You don’t get points for not winning, of course, but by whatever measuring stick you like to use, they’re one of the best sides in the comp.

This year, they have strengthened their hooking position by bringing in Brandon Smith, but that might be offset by the loss of Siosiua Taukeiaho, a criminally underrated force in their middle, and the addition of another year into the legs of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

Then again, everything they lose in age to him, they gain in experience with Sam Walker, already one of the best around at just 20, and Joseph Suaali’i, still a teenager.

Oh, and they still have the Kangaroos captain, the reigning Golden Boot, a triple-premiership winning half and multiple Origin players. They’ll be there or thereabouts, as the pundits like to say – and anything less than a Grand Final with this roster is going to be seen as a failure.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Path to the trophy

The route to glory runs through the top four, and the more we look back on 2022, the more criminal it seems that Trent Robinson took the trials so lightly.

They went 4-4 through the first eight rounds, including defeats to no-hopes like the Dragons, Newcastle and Trent Barrett’s Bulldogs, before a tough fixture run saw them 8-8 after 16.

Just one more win from any of those games would have seen them in the top four and, in all likelihood, a Prelim or Grand Final. Cronulla beat all the dross and finished second.

This year, the Roosters can easily exceed their number of wins by simply disposing of the lesser teams more consistently. Their problem might be that the exact same problem afflicted Souths, who will look to pick up those kind of victories too.

Once the whips get cracking, the Chooks will be a match for anyone. But like everyone else, they need to set themselves up for success by finishing top four.

They’ve also not beaten the Panthers since 2019 – six straight games – and, one suspects, that is going to have to change for them to pick up a trophy.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Danger signs

Injuries have already totally derailed their season once in recent memory so, while it would be unfortunate for that to happen twice, it’s not impossible. Otherwise it is very hard to see how the Roosters don’t at the very least make the finals.

However: any injury at all to James Tedesco would be a massive problem. Even though they could shift Joey Manu or Sua’ali’i to the back, that doesn’t replace the best fullback in the game.

Teddy plays every game available for the Chooks, Blues and Kangaroos, which will probably catch up with him eventually. The Roosters fall off a cliff when he doesn’t feature.

Luke Keary missed a lot of time last year with concussion issues and cannot be far away from wondering whether it’s all worth it. That may arise again.

And, as mentioned, father time catches everyone and JWH, set to crack 300 games this year, has been slowing down. They need to manage him well.

The draw

The Roosters can ease into the year with the Dolphins and Warriors, neither of whom are expected to be any great shakes. Thereafter, things get tough: Bunnies, bye, Eels, Storm, Sharks.

Origin is kind-ish to them, with three home games against the Bulldogs, Storm and Raiders, who also will lose bodies, and the backend isn’t too bad either. They get the Bunnies last, but should be resting bodies by then.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The key three: Tedesco, Walker, Suaali’i

It’s hard to know where to start on the key players for the Roosters. One has to start with Tedesco, but he’s been so consistently good for so long that it barely merits mention. He remains, despite all the other names, their best and most important player.

If Walker continues his trajectory in attack, they’ll score a lot of points from his boot, both off the tee and in general play. If Trent sticks with his call of last year – their improvement coincided nicely with Walker playing halfback – then anything is possible.

Suaali’i is also likely to skyrocket given his prodigious form to date. The pre-season talk is that they might move him inside to the centres, which one imagines is because Paul Momirovski is a defensive weak link and they think they can replace his contribution on a wing.

Be careful what you wish for, because what Suaali’i offers from the wing might be more than they can easily replace.

Player under pressure: Brandon Smith

Brandon Smith comes to the club with huge wraps, but under massive pressure to make an impact early on. There’s no doubting his ability, but 2022 was not a vintage year and Robbo will needs his hooker to replicate his form prior to that to stand a chance.

The combination between the Cheese and Victor Radley – different positions, but similar players and characters – will be crucial. It could be transformative, but it could also be one too many loose cannons at the same time.

Brandon Smith. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Hidden Gem: Nat Butcher

Nat Butcher has bubbled along nicely, and this could be the year where the backrower elevates from a decent player to a very, very good one. Should he be called upon, Siua Wong is a hot talent who impressed at the World Cup for Fiji and more than deserves a crack at NRL. If they switch Sua’ali’i to the centres, watch out for Vuate Karawalevu, another Fijian prospect, debuting on the wing.

Coach’s safety rating

There’s not a safer coach in the NRL than Trent Robinson. It’s his job for life.

Premiership odds

$6 at PlayUp to win the premiership, second behind the Panthers.

Predicted finish

In the mix right until the end, and as good a chance as anyone of stopping the Penrith three-peat.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Squad list

Round 1 predicted team

1 James Tedesco
2 Daniel Tupou
3 Paul Momirovski
4 Joseph Manu
5 Joseph Suaali’i
6 Luke Keary
7 Sam Walker
8 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9 Brandon Smith
10 Lindsay Collins
11 Nat Butcher
12 Angus Crichton (depending on NRL ruling on suspension)
13 Victor Radley
Interchange
14 Drew Hutchison
15 Egan Butcher
16 Terrell May
17 Fletcher Baker

Other squad members: Sitili Tupouniua, Connor Watson, Billy Smith (injured), Corey Allan, Jake Turpin, Jaxson Paulo, Joshua Wong, Naufau Whyte, Robert Toia, Tukupa Hau Tapuha.

Hayze Perham. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Season Draw