Eels 2023 Outlook: Now or never for Parra as premiership window looks likely to close

Ah, Parramatta. They always find a way to let you down. Granted last year will rank behind 2011 and 2009 in their list of great disappointments, because the Eels showed the their typical fortunate streak by combining their best run in years with that of their greatest rivals.

Parra were the second best team for most of the year: even when they weren’t at points through the regular season, it did seem like they were always the most likely to challenge the Panthers when the whips got cracking and, ultimately, they were the only side to defeat a full-strength version of Penrith.

That might have been assisted by one or two other factors. The Roosters, as mentioned previously, decided to dispense with conventional wisdom on the need for a pre-season and started behind the eight ball.

Souths were in the first year of a new coach and the Storm lost plenty through injury. Neither Cronulla nor the Cowboys were ready to properly challenge yet, with new cycles beginning but not quite there yet.

In 2023, they might have the chance to overturn a Penrith side that will surely return to the pack to some extent, but the greater question will be in their ability to beat the other teams that make this season’s NRL a wide open contest.

Realistically, this is their last chance, too: Hodgson is a one-year stopgap that could keep the fabled Premiership Window ajar for another year, but by 2024, he will be 34 and Mitchell Moses might well be at the Tigers.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Path to the trophy

Parramatta can win largely in the same way that they did last year. All of their key position players and their most salary cap-intensive names are back again, as is their coach, and the only major upheaval is the loss of Reed Mahoney to the Dogs, which is offset by the arrival of Josh Hodgson from the Raiders.

Isaiah Papali’i is gone, but I’m inclined to see him as a good player enabled by a system designed to help back-rowers flourish. Shaun Lane on the other side also benefitted from this, and the proof of my theory will be if J’maine Hopgood can step up at the Eels, and indeed, if Ice can maintain form at the Tigers.

All going well for Parra, they’ll be among the favourites for the Premiership – with the caveat that so are a whole load of other teams. There’s nobody Parra can’t beat in a one-off – though, stylistically, they struggle badly with Souths – and they’ll have zero fear about anyone.

Just like 2022, they need to weaponise their best qualities. They come with the distinct home advantage of playing at CommBank Stadium, and will need to make the most of that.

Their attack is potentially one of the best, and it wouldn’t take much defensive  improvement for that to really start to shine. A stronger middle rotation would help with that, especially from the bench.

They go front-first through Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard, batter the front door in, create a load of offloads and let Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses do the rest. Easy.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Danger signs

Parra are uniquely inclined towards flameouts, and indeed, in the year after their last Grand Final experience, finished a lowly 12^th. Their defeats last year to the Tigers, Broncos and Bulldogs all showed how, when it goes bad, it can go bad fast.

If Josh Hodgson doesn’t hit the ground running at his new club, they will end up rudderless and without a solid back-up. Hopgood is potentially a huge downgrade on Papali’i – if he fails to fire, then Parra lose a lot of what made them good in attack.

The great unknown is the future of Brad Arthur, who media outlets consistently report as on the edge of a crisis, even when he usually isn’t.

The draw

The pressure will be on Parramatta right from the off. They play four of last year’s Finals teams in their first five games and the other fixture is Manly in Manly. It’s one of the toughest starts going.

They get the bye last, but the three before that are equally daunting, with Broncos in Brisbane plus the Panthers and Roosters to round off the regular season. Parra need to be safely inside the top four by then.

In between, the Origin period isn’t too taxing and only, really, Junior Paulo plays it anyway.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The key three: Moses, Brown, Hodgson

Mitchell Moses is the place to start. His control over the Parra team is absolute and, with contract talks ongoing, he’s set to dominate the headlines regardless of how he plays. The better he goes, the better the Eels go.

Dylan Brown just signed a bumper new deal and will now be expected to be among the best five eighths in the competiton, bar none. His pairing with Moses is everything.

Josh Hodgson, as mentioned, has massive shoes to fill in replacing Mahoney. If he fires, the Eels are right up there with the best of them. If he doesn’t, they won’t be. He can offer more in a lot of regards than Moses, but at 33 and off the back of a major injury, can he consistently reach the necessary heights?

Player under pressure: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

Reagan Campbell-Gillard was exceptional last year and earned Kangaroos honours even when the Blues rejected his services for, politely, non-playing reasons.

Reggie got a fire lit under his backside from that moment on and played the house down – but one year of it isn’t enough. Him and Paulo need to set their halves up for success.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Hidden Gem: Matt Doorey

Matt Doorey was ignored completely by the Bulldogs in 2022, but his appearances prior to last year suggest that there’s a player in there somewhere. With the 12 jumper vacated by Papali’i up for grabs between Hopgood, Bryce Cartwright, Jirah Momoisea and Jack Murchie, it could be the perfect time for the Matt Doorey redemption story.

Coach’s safety rating

Brad Arthur, by all rights, should not be under pressure one little bit at the Eels, but the media loves to spin that he is. Whether that has any basis in reality or not is by the by: he’s proven over a long time that he can get this team into shape and, since last year, get them to a Grand Final. Chatter will always follow him but he should be fine.

Premiership odds

They have slipped to $15 at PlayUp, down to seventh in the betting after previously being equal with the Sharks and Rabbitohs, and also behind the Panthers, Roosters, Storm and Cowboys.

Predicted finish

If they make the top four, can win it, if they don’t, can’t. Lots of teams are in that boat, however. They’re lower reaches of the finals – let’s say fifth – and out in a prelim.

Squad list

Round 1 predicted team

1 Clint Gutherson
2 Maika Sivo
3 Waqa Blake
4 Will Penisini
5 Sean Russell
6 Dylan Brown
7 Mitchell Moses
8 Reagan Campbell-Gillard
9 Josh Hodgson
10 Junior Paulo
11 Shaun Lane
12 Matt Doorey
13 J’maine Hopgood
Interchange
14 Jakob Arthur
15 Makahesi Makatoa
16 Nathan Brown
17 Bryce Cartwright

Other squad members: Ryan Matterson (suspended), Haze Dunster, Jack Murchie, Jirah Momoisea, Ky Rodwell, Mitch Rein, Ofahiki Ogden, Samuel Loizou, Wiremu Greig.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Season Draw