With recent calls for changes to Test selections in both Australia and New Zealand, some hard decisions need to be made if things are to stay as they are.
It’s fine to say that Super Rugby Pacific can be run on the same principles as it was 20 years ago, but they are two different financial realities. If Super Rugby Pacific can’t keep up with the Pro D2 it won’t just be Test players that will be gone overseas.
I specifically have not included European Cup games or playoffs as not all teams make them. But I do touch on them. I just want to show how each league stacks up from 2005 to now.
1. Attendances
The average Super Rugby attendance in 2005 was 26,174 per game. With about 6 games per season this meant that teams had 157,044 attendances for 6 home games. Leinster with 9 home games is the only URC team so surpass that figure this year.
In the 2005/06 season the average Top 14 team had 10,391 per game and 135,083 per season. The Premiership had 10,992 per game and 120,912 per season. The Celtic league was nowhere with 5,194 per game and 51,940 over the season. Super Rugby worked as the average team still got 20,000 more fans in than any other league.
At 13,000 per game (estimate), Super Rugby Pacific would be getting 91,000 per regular season, a drop of about 66,000 even with an extra game. This year the Premiership is sitting at 12,908 per game and 129,080 per season, up 8,000 fans. Top 14 was sitting at 14,065 after round 18 a (new record), 182,845 per season, up nearly 50,000 per season. The URC is still that smallest of all the leagues but with 9,304 average per game, 83,736 per season, up 31,796 even with one less home game.
With European games even the URC teams on average will be getting over 100,000. Leinster have the highest European cup attendance with 184,552 from 5 home games. Leinster currently have sold 349,797 tickets for their 14 home games this season.
Attendances are not going back up to 25,000 per game so there needs to be a 22 round league. If only 10,000 per game was achieved, there would still be 19,000 more tickets sold.
Pro D2 currently has 4,500 fans per game with 15 home games, 67,500 per season. I would guess attendances have improved by 100 per game or 1,500 over the season.
2. TV Deals
We don’t know what any share of any TV deal is apportioned to Super Rugby, something that is a recurring issue. I will estimate it at 20% so I have a figure to work with.
In 1995 SANZAR signed a $550m deal for 10 years from 1996 – 2005 This would be $55m per year, Super Rugby is $11m which had 12 teams. This works out at $0.92m per team per season. Today the New Zealand and Australian deal is about €125m, but is for more than just SANZAAR. 20% works out as $25m or $2.1m per team.
Premiership Rugby in 2006 had a $23.4m deal or $1.95m per team. Today they have the smallest in Europe with $52.56m after the CVC cut which is now $4.38m per team.
The French deal in 2006 was around the same as the premiership, 25% went to ProD2. Top 14 had $1.25m per team and the Pro D2 $0.37m per team. From next season French Rugby is $188m, $47m goes to the Pro D2 ($2.94m per team) there is $141m left over or $10.1m per team. This is a 17% increase on the current deal in place.
We don’t know what the URC deal was. We know prior to the 2017 season it was $11.3m or $0.94m per team, what Super Rugby was getting 15 years earlier. Today it is $103m or which CVC get $29m. The remaining $74m over 16 teams is $4.62m. This is partly why the Irish and Scottish diaspora, are heading home suddenly.
3. The difference in real terms
Basing ticket income as $20 per ticket we see the following changes.
Super Rugby = $0.14m less per team
Premiership = $2.59m more per team
Pro D2 = $2.60m more per team
URC = $4.31m per team
Top 14 = $9.80m per team.
We can see why Super Rugby and the Premiership are losing players to the URC and French Rugby. Are the Top 14 or URC profitable, maybe not but it is much closer now than ever before.
The Leinster v Ulster last 16 Champions Cup clash brought in over $2m when 51,700 paid $40 starting price for a ticket. The IRFU let Leinster keep $1m and will then distribute the other $1m between the 4 teams.
Recently the Champions Cup semi finals took place with 88,027 attending across both games. A big criticism was the ticket were $120 starting price so they didn’t get 93,815 sell-outs, but the EPCR banked $10.5m. This in part is why holding a semi-final in South Africa is not being allowed currently.
4. Part-time season for part-time money.
A Super Rugby player is paid to play up to 17 games, a URC player is paid to play up to 29 games (includes European games). If a Super Rugby player is paid $10,000 per game, he would get $170,000 per season. If the URC player is only paid $7,500 per game, he will get 28% more per season. If you need 30 players in Super Rugby it would cost $300,000 per round for the squad, for the same money the URC can have 40 players.
Super Rugby squad would cost $5.1m and the URC squad would cost $8.7m but employ 33% more players.
Top 14 figure at $7,500 per game would be $277,500 per season and wage bill would be $11.1m. The Top 14 wage cap is about $17m, while the Super Rugby wage cap is about the $5m.
Is it good value then to pay so much money to run the NPC or the fabled NRC, or give the money to Super Rugby to have a longer season? South Africa are doing this in part with the Currie Cup as it runs along side the URC from January to June. The Bulls have their 60 player squad of which 46 get to play most of those weekends.
Is it better to have an extra 50 Super Rugby players (mainly u23s) playing in Australia or New Zealand with 9 months professional training or have 200 semi-pro players, who can only play for 10 games? Imagine if your boss sent you to work with the interns for half the year and had an intern as a boss. This is effectively what is happening with the NPC.
Until New Zealand stop pretending the NPC is just as good as Super Rugby they will lose out on money. Be like South Africa and let the professional league fund the professional teams and just pay for 4-5 semi-pro teams to take part in the level below Super Rugby.
5. The bigger jump to professionalism
The best and brightest in South Africa are now in a professional training environment for 10 months a year, and can be easily moved from Currie Cup to URC. Best example of this is Canan Moodie, Currie Cup debut 19/01/2022, URC debut 29/01/2022, test debut 03/09/2022 v Australia. When he made his Test debut he had played 15 URC matches, this is how Currie Cup and NPC use to work in 1995.
Jake White had no fear of picking Canan for the URC because he trained with and against the URC players. Fringe URC squad players are now being sent to the Currie Cup for a few week to work on skill, but don’t have to wait 6 months to come back to URC.
Leinster for the last 3 years have used over fifty players on the field over the season. These are their 40 odd professional players plus the 10-15 academy lads who they want to see in professional rugby. Ireland u20 Sam Prendergast player 160 minutes at 10 away in South Africa in the URC, how many NPC/NRC games is that worth.
Leinster are likely to play all 29 games giving them 667 (29×23) squad places, even if they just gave the best 3 in each position game time each would get 15 games each. If Zebre did the same thing, they would get 11 games. If the Force miss the playoffs and play the same 23 in every single game, they will get 14 games each. Not a lot of space for developing youngsters.
The simple truth is that the gap between semi-professional rugby and professional rugby is now bigger than NPC was to test rugby in 1995. It is important to keep the links with the level below open, as they do serve a purpose like the Currie Cup is doing.
In the Summer the European and South African teams will send under 20s with professional experience in the top European leagues. Jauneau Baptiste who will be scrumhalf for France has 29 games for Clermont with nearly 1000 minutes this season.
Crusaders have 3 players born in 2003 that have played Super Rugby, Clermont have 5. The problem is not the pathway, it’s the destination. A young Australian at the under 20s will struggle to keep up over the next few year with their French counterpart as they will have less professional rugby and training.
6. Live together or die apart.
The URC is 5 Unions joined together to make professionalism work. While New Zealand and Australia may think they can go it alone, in reality together they can just about pull off professionalism.
If people think that Super Rugby Pacific isn’t the thing that will make professional rugby work in the South Pacific, then I don’t know where they think the money will come from. It isn’t going to be Test rugby as that has failed for the last 20 years of trying.
As I showed earlier the IRFU are getting over $17m more now than they did in 2005 which allows them to have 170 players earning 100k more than 20 years ago. Rugby Asutralia on the other hand is down $0.7m or $4,000 less for each of the 170 professional players.
It would be great if an NRC and NPC could operate a professional 8-team league each, but it would be like the MLR. Yes, they can empower smaller unions like South Africa has with the Currie Cup but until Super Rugby Pacific becomes the bread and butter professional rugby is doomed in the South Pacific. As long as the NRC or NPC is the most expensive butter, players will not develop like those overseas.
Treat the league like 12 individual teams and make them grow their income. Let players and coaches be signed to whatever team can afford them. Its better that the financial muscle of Queensland, Sydney, Twiggy, Auckland and wherever else have all the Test players and see them twice a season, than have no Test players in the league.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
In SR they always had the highest average attendance, I think averaging about 30k. The people in the Cape like their rugby.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I think the record attendance for Stormers in Super Rugby was 49,976 in the semi final in 2010. This season they will play 15 games at home. URC regular season (total/average) 144,570/16,063, Champs Cup 60,242/20,080 , URC playoffs 146,367/48,789. That is a total across the season of 351,179/23,411. That is not to bad and shows plenty space for growth. I think they will be looking to get over 20k per game next year in the URC normal season.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Bulls will definitely win their home games. URC final sold out under 3 hours.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I think the current deal for broadcast rights in South Africa is up about the same time. When it was last done it was a competition that the SA teams did not play in and probably only watched by a few South Africans. I think now that its a tournament that the SA teams were involved in more will be interested. I think next year Stormers will understand that they need 4 wins from 4 to get a home quarters. Leinster, Sarries, Toulouse and La Rochelle will be looking for 4 wins so even 4 wins will not secure a home quarter final. Bulls will play the a finalist from the Prem and T14 so they might get 0 or 1 win next season, but that is what happens in a competitive league. Champions Cup Seed 1 - Stormers and Munster, Seed 2 Leinster and Connacht, Seed 3 Ulster and Glasgow, Seed 4 Bulls and Cardiff. Challange Cup Seed 1 Sharks and Lions, Seed 4 Cheetahs.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
Last year's URC final featuring two SA sides drew 1.25 million viewers, 41% from outside South Africa. This URC final then should have even more viewers as Munster is a very popular team. I am not sure about the Challenge Cup numbers. SA only included from 2025 onwards into broadcast deal for URC, again, not certain about the Challenge Cup and HCC.
Brendan NH Fan
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Lions have struggled and even their Challange Cup games were terrible. Hopefully now that fans realise that there is a trophy to win and automatic entry into the Champions Cup the Lions might do better. For the Sharks next season that is the easiest trophy to win by a mile. It will be interesting to see what the SA deal is for the Cups as when it was last signed SA teams were not in it, now they are it will be alot more I would guess. When figures are released for the URC and Cups I will be interested to see if the viewing figures are up and IF SA fans watch the final. Either way Stormers getting 44-50k 3 games in a row in the URC knockouts must have been a nice financial bonus for the team.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Of course it's a factor! It's a cultural behemoth the likes of which are rarely seen in sport. The EPL alone is gigantic, but even that aside, you have an open-ended system of four fully professional divisions (with 90+ clubs). That opens to the lower conference system (which Wrexham just got promoted from) where historically successful and popular clubs can end up. Then you have the open-ended system to promote clubs to different European competitions (Champion's League & Europa League). And then you also have two domestic Cups (knockout tournaments) every single season! Every other sport has to compete with the sheer popularity and cultural dominance of soccer. So disingenuous of you fiwiboy to not acknowledge this! NZ has such a natural advantage to have union not just the most popular sport, but a culturally dominant and religiously worshipped national side, which then gets the next generation of kids to immediately buy in. Virtually every single other of the roughly dozen "tier one" nation as NZ's competition, has one or multiple football codes that are clearly more popular and culturally relevant, and has to fight tooth and nail for publicity, sponsorship, and the next generation of athletes.
Ulrich
Roar Rookie
I think TV viewership is important to consider as that's what the next broadcast deal will look at. Many European teams have much smaller stadiums than in the SH. The Lions really should move elsewhere because Ellis Park is in a shitty spot and people don't want to attend there. Look at the festive atmosphere whenever the Stormers play in Stellenbosch which is a much smaller stadium than CPT Stadium. The Lions need to do something similar, on a permanent basis.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Thanks
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
The Warriors were based in Australia for 2022 so those gate figures may not truly reflect the Warriors appeal: they could just as easily reflect their opponent's appeal. And I am sure SR rights are bundled up in broadcast rights: a percentage for SR, a percentage for Tests .. et al.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Attendance figures for NRL season 2022. If NZ couldn't get day games when SA was in the mix then that is not a reason for the halving of attendance figures. Streaming and TV are two sides of the same coin. One of the first things that an independent SRP board will probably do is set up a streaming service. URC have URC tv and Premier sports allow you to get a season ticket and view the games whenever you want. As the article points out when you take the growth in TV income and compare it to a very low estimate of drop in ticket income, they have loss money compared to 20 years ago. So I wouldn't say that the TV revenue isn't really driving revenue, In NZ it is working better but OZ it is alot worse. Once the TV deals are shared NZ get caught in the same boat. I think the next fight in Super Rugby is what % of the TV deal is SRP and how much is everything else. The higher the % the better for Oz but the lower the % the worse for the Competition. Not great choices.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
Warriors got 124.6k last year over the season or 11.3k with every away team coming from Oz. Where on earth did you get that figure from? Secondly, NZ couldn't get day games when SA were in the mix. Even today, the TV people still want night games. And if TV is driving revenue then gate figures really don't count, does it? But the TV model is under threat from streaming so there is a definite shelf date for TV revenue.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
It is the NRL warriors in New Zealand is who I am referring too. They have more games so get more over the season. URC is competitive even if the games might not always be. This season about a third of the games involved LBPs. 7 out of 16 teams won between 45% and 55% of the games. Half the teams either moved up or down by 3 or more places. Two different teams in the semis from last year. Connacht finished 11th last year, 7th this year and have made the semis (two away quarter final wins). Bulls have gone from Champions Cup first seeds down to 4th seeds meaning that they will most like get either Toulouse or La Rochelle in the champions cup along with either Sarries or Sale/Tigers. Weather in Europe isn't exactly great either. Either you build your Finances or Fans or Broadcast and then make the other work. Dave Buttress Dragons chair said his club make more money from TV than gate and its not close which is why they played on a Sunday for ages. Was SR 95-2010 played more during the day than now. All SA home games are on a Saturday afternoon so would seem if NZR wanted afternoon games they could get them but chose not to.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
Firstly, Which Warriors are you talking about? There's one in NZ and it's a rugby league side. I assume you're not talking about them. (There's also a Chiefs side down here). SA fans do like to see their teams win. But they will also want to see competitive games AND against their traditional rivals; The Boks' home games against the ABs last year was proof of that. The NZ sides playing in Oz do get good support from ex-pats and RA likes that because it bumps up their home game crowds and even TV ratings. But they depend on that because Blues home fans can't just drive to their games in Sydney. That's why Oz broadcaster Stan made such a fuss about including NZ rights in their broadcast deal with RA. I also think culture is at play here. NZ and Oz crowds tend not to be so demonstrative at a game in general. Some of the teams' crowds look small because they are played in big stadiums. There's also the weather to consider. I just read a story which states that NZ teams can get bigger crowds at day games but the broadcasters don't want it. The broadcaster's insistence that game times be decided by them is what caused the 2006 SR grand final to be played in thick pea soup fog!
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Tonga is really to small and would need to depend on the participation fee from the competition which hopefully an independent board would sort. TV viewership is always different. Connacht have one of the highest in the URC as they are always on TG4 for free. I get the impression that SA teams just want to see their teams win and will turn in for that. Maybe NZ and OZ fans have a different mentality but generally the more you win the more you support your team. The impression i get (rightly or wrongly) is that the national population like their local team and the test side and aren't to pushed about the SRP side so only go or watch is a big game (like any NZ side v Crusaders). Warriors got 124.6k last year over the season or 11.3k with every away team coming from Oz. How many fans did the SRP teams get through their gate of the season. Surely the Blues get good away support due to all the none locals living there.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
yes and get home about midnight after 2 hours of driving. The point on Munster is that half their base drive 1.5+ to get there for games. If the opposition is not from Ireland it is just like SR where there aren't many fans (Generally Munster and Leinster have the most away fans due to the Irish diaspora around the countries). If Munster played in Perth fairly sure the majority of fans would be Munster supports rather than Force as Irish people love Irish things. Its why getting Munster or Leinster in a European game is big bucks for the home team. The question is would SRP rather the TV money for home games or the fans. One reason that the T14 now has such a big tv deal is they have lots of late games but still sell out stadia. Last week like every week there was a game in the T14 Sunday night, Toulouse v Bordeaux which started at 8:05pm so finishing about 10pm at the earliest. Bordeaux is 2.5 hours by train/car but it still had a massive attendance.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
The Drua are a recent construct. They were cobbled together for the OZ NRC but Fijians don't care; they just love their rugby. Their home ground is giving them a big advantage. South Africans know about that. And NZ/Oz audiences are more demanding here; they want to see competitive games. They don't want to see another local derby; they want to see competitive games between NZ and Aust or South Africa or Jaguares or the Drua ... The problem with expanding SRP, as always, is you're adding travel and accommodation costs to the bill. Of the non-Aust/NZ teams, Fiji is able to host games (just); Samoa can't (at the moment) and Tonga may never be able to.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
emmmm .... geography for NZ, for one, has changed! The 2011 Christchurch earthquake changed the country geologically. :happy: Munster have half their fan base coming from Cork with is 1.5 hours away can't compare to, say, NSW vs Highlanders and that's not considering a match-up like Highlanders vs Jaguares in the pre-SRP/Covid days. As for the question of gate attendance, day games may help boost that. Watching a night game in winter really takes the gloss off games. It's harder for families to attend together. Up until SRP, NZ could not get any day games to ensure the games were broadcast overseas at a "reasonable" hour for those viewers. Have you attended a night game?
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Welsh are not competitive in the URC but does not seem to matter to SA teams increasing attendances. Expanding SRP is part of the problem as you would have to build up teams like MP are having to do, and unless it is based in NZ or Oz will add more costs to every team involved. If each NZ played each other twice and Oz and Drua once you would get 2 more games, that an extra 26k through the gate and about on par with the URC. 26k @ $20 a ticket is another player kept at home for each team. The problem with SR expansion was only the Cheetahs was an established team (maybe the kings) while the rest were manufactured so had no fan base and no money. Dura have existed prior to SRP which is why they are doing better once added to SRP.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
As per the population, geography and travel times have not changed in 20 years when SRP was getting 25k (about double per game of any other league). Munster have half their fan base coming from Cork with is 1.5 hours away and often get stuck with the Saturday night game. 13k figure is from Two cents for the 2019 SR season so before Covid and SRP. England and France have alot more teams so it does matter. Auckland has a population of 1.6m so not sure why Toulouse (400k) or Lyon (500k) are still getting North of 20k per game but the Blues can't, and both have to compete with soccer in their city too. Hamilton has twice the population of la Rochelle but both get similar attendances.