I’ve just noticed the latest betting odds for hosting the 2018 World Cup, and as I would have expected, absolutely everyone is on far shorter odds than Australia (including Greece!), with the exception of Canada and Israel.
I have followed the World Cup since 1974 and I have held a secret desire for the last few years that South Africa might fall over and that Australia might end up hosting the World Cup by default (an increasingly unlikely prospect).
As you can see, I’m not anti-hosting the World Cup per se. So why do I think that Australia’s bid to host the 2018 World Cup is just pie in the sky?
The reasons are many and varied, so here I will try and outline my top six reasons why Australia has next to zero chance in hosting the WC in 2018.
1. Sepp Blatter
Sepp Blatter, President of FIFA since 1998, is the archetypal Machiavellian. He’s a great survivor, plays the political game as well as anyone on Earth and rarely misses an opportunity. He broke Australian hearts a few years ago when he promised Oceania direct qualification to the WC, orchestrated it, enjoyed Oceania’s vote, and when it was no longer needed, stood back as the other confederations promptly voted in a reversal of that decision.
It was also Sepp Blatter that ushered in the rotation policy which meant that each Confederation would get a turn at hosting the World Cup. This allowed Japan-South Korea to host in 2002 (the first time Asia had hosted the World Cup), and just as significantly, South Africa to win the rights for 2010 (the first time that Africa will host it). South America gets a turn in 2014 with Brazil (incidentally, it will represent the first time South America has hosted the event in 36 years). There are some good feathers in the cap there, but just as the rotation policy was going swimmingly well, it was ditched. No more rotation policy beyond 2014.
I promise you all, Sepp Battler doesn’t make a decision like this unless something significant is lurking behind it. That significant something is not going to be Australia, which brings us to …
2. Europe
The Union Européenne de Football Association or Union of European Football Associations in English (UEFA) is the controlling body for European football, and let me assure you, it is almost as powerful as FIFA itself. How powerful? Let us just say that since 1958, Europe has hosted every second World Cup without fail. So 1958 to 2006, Europe has hosted the WC every 8 years. Germany hosted in 2006. With South Africa hosting in 2010 and Brazil in 2014, this will mean that 2018 will represent 12 years since Europe last hosted the World Cup.
Are the Europeans going to stand going without for twelve years? Or even sixteen years? Of course not! Who do you think got in Blatter’s ear about ditching the rotation policy in the first place?!
On top of that, look who is putting their hands up to host the World Cup from Europe:
• England (part of footballing royalty, the wealthiest domestic football competition in the World, hasn’t hosted since 1966, the only time they won the World Cup)
• Russia (good footballing pedigree, extremely deep pockets); and
• Holland/Belgium (both have proud World Cup histories; and while FIFA might generally frown on joint bids, these two closely linked Benelux countries putting a joint bid forward is not the same has Japan/Sth Korea putting a joint bid forward).
Speaking of footballing pedigrees …
3. Footballing pedigree
Australia has none. Sorry, but making the second round once in the 76 year history of the World Cup just doesn’t cut it. We may not like to admit it, but on the world footballing radar we are way, way, way over the horizon. Speaking of horizons …
4. Geography
Unfortunately, we are way, way, way over the horizon (geographically as well). Our time zone is atrocious. The big money is in the European time zones, and sorry, FIFA just isn’t going to give up that coin that easily. Australia’s only chance of turning this flaw around is with China’s economic and political influence continuing to grow, which it undoubtedly will. Which brings us to …
5. China
The growth of China’s economic and political influence. On top of the three strong European bidders mentioned above, China wants to bid for the 2018 World Cup as well! Ok, we defeated China in the race for the 2000 Olympics, but eighteen years on and China is, well, bigger and more influential! Everyone wants a slice of Chinese action in a way that they don’t want a slice of Australian action. And if that weren’t enough, the US and Mexico are throwing their hats into the ring as well.
Which brings us to …
6. Backroom deals
We went through all the wheeling and dealing, and palm greasing to get the 2000 Olympics, are we up to more Machiavellian manoeuvres?
In short, no.
I’ve only just read somewhere that England and Russia have done a deal. For Russia’s support in getting the 2018 World Cup, England will support Russia’s bid in getting the 2014 European cup.
And that’s just the start.
I fear that on this occasion, there is far too much stacked against us.
But if we realise this soon enough, we could turn our attention on the 2022 World Cup. For starters, three very good European bidders will be out of the picture (because Europe will not host it twice in a row, although they did do that in 1954 and 1958), and with a little luck, some of the other 2018 bidders might fall by the wayside.
On top of that, it gives us two more World Cup’s to make a mark – and that can count for a lot.
If we were smart, we would set our sights on 2022.
If we were really, really smart, we would be doing a deal with England right now.
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Norm
Guest
KB Doris is in full "lamington drive" mode. She has been inspired by the Westfield W-League & your description of the athletic sculptured starlets procreating our future socceroos...she's planning to try out for the Gold Coast W-League team...maybe somebody should warn Clive Palmer?
Koala Bear
Guest
"The FIFA Executive Committee also discussed the possibility of announcing the host countries for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups simultaneously. The proposal was accepted in principle, but a final decision on this matter will not be taken until the Executive Committee's next meeting in Tokyo, on 19 and 20 December 2008. " Nothing has changed, which is what we don't already know; the above news Item was taken from the FIFA.com Friday 24th October 2008 .. Again, we have "the Smell the Fear Lobby" trying their damn hardest to disrupt the FFA 2018 WC bid ... 8) Norm and Jimbo, keep the lamington drive and raffle tickets coming... :D any stale ones can be sent to Pippinu to feed his caged seagull .... ~~~~~~~~ KB
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Jimbo you're right about Dec 2011.
jimbo
Guest
Pip, December 2011 - over 3 years away. The FFA hasn't even officially decided to put a bid in yet. England are favoured for 2018 and China for 2022. However, Australia wasn't even on the original short list for the 2000 olympics and put on the best show ever.
Michael C
Guest
Keep those stadium plans on ice just for now......
Pippinu
Roar Guru
The latest news on this is that FIFA has delayed its decision on 2018 and 2022 till December, not only that, some FIFA reps are now jacking up about having to do both in the one hit. The report mentioned that if it came down to just deciding the 2018 bid, England would then face stiff opposition from the USA,who is likely to enter a bid for that year. There was no mention of Australia - not that we should necessarily be surprised by that.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
An addional problem would be how to deal with domestic competitions for that year. The World cup would have to be played in June/July to coincide with the Northern summer. This would be smack bang in middle of the AFL and NRL seasons. It would be hard to see them moving those codes forward like they did during the olympics because then it would clash with the cricket (as well as being too hot). The only viable solution would be to have a two month lay off for those two codes and I doubt the AFL or NRL would be happy with that.
Koala Bear
Guest
True Tah, If I should live so long to see the 2018 FIFA Futbol world cup in Australia; followed by the 2019 Rugby World Cup .. All on FTA TV, that will just about see me out. Then to join the Lads, and play the game, they play in Heaven, (Futbol that is :) ) will be an added bonus.. I've been to Ballymore and it has tremendous potential as a state-of-the-art Stadium .. It could be turned into a wonderful venue to hold more important fixtures -- seems to be under used like Concord (Sydney); two rectangular fields crying out to have some dough spent on them.. With the advent of both World Cups coming to Australia and an increased Australian population, that will justify spending the money.. Looking forward to watching the Wallabies take on the Bok .. I hope its on FTA -- haven't check the program yet... ~~~~~~~ KB
Redb
Guest
KB, No anger management required. I just go to the footy and abuse the umpires, works well. :-) True Tah, yes the RWC going to NZ was hardly an inspired choice to grow the sport and 2019 is too soon surely for Australia to host again. It is interesting to know what legacies were actually created from us hosting the 2003 RWC as far as spreading the code in Australia. Redb
True Tah
Guest
Jimbo, Rudd is apparently not so skinny anymore...maybe he wants to be more like the average overweight Australian these days! KB, re: Ballymoore, the $4.2m Qld Govt grant will turn it into a facility for all sports, not just rugby, I understand this was the reason why the funding was given...your Queensland Roar will probably end up training there a bit. I hope we do not get 2019 World Cup though, I would rather see it go to a country outside the traditional Big 8. I think the 2022 WC would be ours no doubts...to costs of submitting a bid for 2018 will be high, and our chances are much reduced...however, 2022 the costs would be the same, with a far greater chance.
Paul
Guest
Redb, regarding the push to buy more gold medals, I completely agree with you. In Australia, we don't know our place in the world. We are so far from the rest of the world, and big in our own region, that some how we think we are big in a global context. In sporting events we are a big fish in a little pond, but have somehow not worked out that this does not translate to all sports. When it comes to Olympic sports a greater slice of the pie should go to swimming and cycling where our traditional strengths lie. This does not mean that other sports should be ineligible. It is immoral that we think we can keep throwing money at more gold medals.... As I think I mentioned previously, haven't we got some mess in our own backyard to clean up? As far as world cup bids are concerned, well there's no need to repeat myself is there. Well written and reasoned article Pippinu, keep it up.
Michael C
Guest
KB you asked C’mon laddie, which is more likely Grooky taking over in India or the 2018 FIFA world cup on Australian soil.. Interesting question KB, interesting question. Because the deadline for each has not yet passed - well, the 'possibility' remains open. The propensity for soccerheads to 'dream' and 'dream-hard' and expect all else to dream with them or otherwise be deemed overly negative - - -is at full play here. 2018 - - Australia - - not a hope in hell. We know that, they won't allow a 3rd WC in a row in the Southern Hemisphere.........heck, it's only on the back of the short lived 'actual rotation' policy that this has managed to happen - - - and that's been scuppered quick smart to make sure that A. the Oceania confed never gets it's turn and B. that Europe can get back in the 'big chair' for 2018. Going forward is the pseudo 12 year rotation, i.e. that no confed can host twice within a 12 year period. And so, Europe, is gunning for 2018, and thereafter we can lay money quite safely on Europe (if the 'system' remains) for 2030, 2042, 2054 and after that I'm struggling to think that I'll be caring. 2018 is such 'pie in the sky' that it actually potrays people quite poorly, and certainly the desperation of the aging Frank Lowy - - he wants to leave his own 'legacy' other than a moderately popular competition involving privately owned franchises. btw - I'm still waiting for someone to illustrate just how hosting the tourney would be worth $20B to the Australian economy. In Sth Af presently, costs continue to blow out just on the stadium construction, inflation has become an issue and host cities are now being compelled to chip in to cover the blow out. Given that other than tourism (and that rarely hits the predicted 'heights' - - - a bit like 'potential' viewing audiences....'potential'.......a crap word that one), that the main economic benefits seem often to revolve around a 'stimulated' economy. What is a World Cup 'stimulated' economy? Well, an increase in sales of consumer items, (as with the Olympics) - - plasma tvs, 'connected' mobile handsets etc............how many local manufactured such items can we purchase? Also, replica tops, .....made by ..... Adidas. All that will happen in Australia is an increase in retail trade of imported product that further blows out the balance of trade. For Australia, hosting the WC could easily become an inflationary disaster, with 'pie in the sky' predictions of returns based on not much..........probably replicating the figures bandied about in Sth Africa where it looks like they'll be left with public debts and a whole heap of soccer stadiums..............a bit like Japan. Oh, maybe within 25 years the Japanese J-League might ascend to a place where they might seem to warrant these stadia. And, the reality is that there's a lot of soccerheads determined that we host the WC more to improve the quality of venues available........however, domestic soccer still hasn't illustrated that it warrants a whole raft of new stadiums. Certainly not in Sydney were the SFC have only hit 30K once in H&A matches. In Melb, a once off 50K crowd in V2, and that was handled just fine at Telstra Dome. There's a whole lot of self serving soccerhead dreaming going on. So - - win the rights to host the event, build/upgrade 5-10 stadiums......and.......watch the result of ANZ Stadium being repeated more widely..........the rectangle codes leaving it 90% empty 90% of the time.........
Midfielder
Guest
Dave Trifecta , Mariners win A-League, Man U take the treble, Socceroos qualify for WC. OR Trifectra, Socceroos qualify for WC, Choppers come last in the A-League, and Russian crooks come last also in EPL. Dave did you hear about Mr Rudd when he flew back from China and Sydney airport well it was a mess, chairs over turned, windows broken, lights smashed chairs broken ....... well K 07 and his security wanted to know if there was any danager what has happen has a mob broken in here and smashed the place to bits. A airport attendent said no you got it all wrong it was Nike's fault. ...... WTF is K 07 response why / how did Nike do this. No No you don't understand someone at Nike decided to use the Choppers for there next TV Ad.
Dave
Guest
KB I can feel a trifecta coming up...Victory: HAL Champions and Premiers to go with pre season cup!!! BTW ManU champs of Europe and World Club champs in Decmber :) I feel like that Toyota ad...Ohh What a Feeeeling!!!
Koala Bear
Guest
Dave, Larrrd, I needed that, some positive reporting -- from a real Football lad... but it won't help Melb Vic (eighth largest football team in Victoria) .. For this season .. or the Good ship Lollipop... :) Lazza Andrew Chris Towser Midfielder Jimbo It's 2018 I can "Smell the Success" .. Suck it up Larrrds.. Redb, gets some anger management therapy.. Doris's rates are very reasonable.. :) ~~~~~~~~ KB
Dave
Guest
KB Midfielder Towser etc A little off topic but the following article appearing on Foxsports website today. It confirms the advantages of being in Asia and the reason l think Oz will have a great chance of winning either the 2018 or 2022 WC. Once the bridges have been built and as mentioned above, Oz being in the time zone for the growing Asian market the FFA will have a great chance to secure tho hosting rights. "Reds to cash in on China accord By Val Migliaccio August 21, 2008 ADELAIDE has conquered a new Chinese frontier which could earn the Reds home mini pre-season tournament matches against English Premiership, Italian Serie A and Spanish Primera opposition. The Reds' new youth and the women's teams are also expected to benefit from Adelaide's growing "new world" in China. The Reds' four-year agreement with Chinese Super League giant Shandong Luneng has put the club on a higher bargaining stage. It is believed Adelaide is also in the midst of signing another partnership deal with one of Europe's top-10 glamour clubs and another Asian giant. Adelaide's chief operations manager Mel Patzwald closed the deal last week after more than 12 months of negotiations. Patzwald instigated the relationship after Adelaide played Shandong Luneng in last year's AFC Champions League. Patzwald, who is also a director of Airport Travel, said the Shandong Luneng accord will focus on a players' exchange between the two clubs and highlighting SA tourism with the Shandong Province having a close sister-state connection over the past 22 years. "Shandong has chosen Adelaide as a partner because we've been successful," Patzwald said. "We've been in the Asian Champions League twice now and that's counted. "This window of opportunity for us is one part of globalising football - it's the way we have to go." Patzwald said United's expanding horizons will allow Adelaide to eventually strike up partnerships with leading clubs on all continents. Patzwald said the Reds youth team is expected to be invited to lucrative annual Weifang Cup tournament. " Interesting and rewarding times ahead...
Koala Bear
Guest
RedB, Bizarre what would be more bizarre than to post up a negative article of Michael Gleeson (Age journo) than paste a Les Murray endorsement to it ... Bizarre indeed.. If we need friends like Aussie Rules, than gee we must be desperate.. C'mon tell the truth for a change and why would you say Marn Grook is not real .. Michael C spent thousands of words telling everyone it was valid.. If you have a problem with it you should take it up with him or have a look at yourself.. 2018 is real and on course.. Bizarre - that’s on the only word i can use to describe your interpretation of things. ~~~~~~~~ KB
chris
Guest
2018 bid is a muppet bid for 2022. I actually think 2022 is ours. Then get ready for biggest show on earth to arrive down under.
Redb
Guest
KB, Bizarre - that's on the only word i can use to describe your intepretation of things. You would spend more time than anyone bagging the crap out of the AFL, with the whole grooky thing, etc,etc. I laugh it off, some of its even funny, but mostly you deride, ridicule and put down Aussie Rules and expect AFL fans just to lap this whole smell the fear WC bid charade up. You are doing more harm than good, you need us more than we need you. Negativity? Well at least you've made me :-) Redb p.s. If we have a realistic chance you bet I'll back the bid. In the meantime I'm going to call it how I see it.
Koala Bear
Guest
Redb, who said Rugby Union is not getting government funds .. Ballymore is back on the drawing board and gets financial government grassroots assistance.. and so they should .. Once John O'Neill restructures the organization he will be pushing for the Rugby Union WC in 2019 and gee you know what.. I shall be right behind the bid .. But let's face it; when the FIFA world cup bid was announced, what did we get from you .?. A chorus of how dare we be so arrogant to want to play on the MCG and the Telstra stadium in winter.. ~~~~~~~~ KB