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I’ve just noticed the latest betting odds for hosting the 2018 World Cup, and as I would have expected, absolutely everyone is on far shorter odds than Australia (including Greece!), with the exception of Canada and Israel.
I have followed the World Cup since 1974 and I have held a secret desire for the last few years that South Africa might fall over and that Australia might end up hosting the World Cup by default (an increasingly unlikely prospect).
As you can see, I’m not anti-hosting the World Cup per se. So why do I think that Australia’s bid to host the 2018 World Cup is just pie in the sky?
The reasons are many and varied, so here I will try and outline my top six reasons why Australia has next to zero chance in hosting the WC in 2018.
1. Sepp Blatter
Sepp Blatter, President of FIFA since 1998, is the archetypal Machiavellian. He’s a great survivor, plays the political game as well as anyone on Earth and rarely misses an opportunity. He broke Australian hearts a few years ago when he promised Oceania direct qualification to the WC, orchestrated it, enjoyed Oceania’s vote, and when it was no longer needed, stood back as the other confederations promptly voted in a reversal of that decision.
It was also Sepp Blatter that ushered in the rotation policy which meant that each Confederation would get a turn at hosting the World Cup. This allowed Japan-South Korea to host in 2002 (the first time Asia had hosted the World Cup), and just as significantly, South Africa to win the rights for 2010 (the first time that Africa will host it). South America gets a turn in 2014 with Brazil (incidentally, it will represent the first time South America has hosted the event in 36 years). There are some good feathers in the cap there, but just as the rotation policy was going swimmingly well, it was ditched. No more rotation policy beyond 2014.
I promise you all, Sepp Battler doesn’t make a decision like this unless something significant is lurking behind it. That significant something is not going to be Australia, which brings us to …
2. Europe
The Union Européenne de Football Association or Union of European Football Associations in English (UEFA) is the controlling body for European football, and let me assure you, it is almost as powerful as FIFA itself. How powerful? Let us just say that since 1958, Europe has hosted every second World Cup without fail. So 1958 to 2006, Europe has hosted the WC every 8 years. Germany hosted in 2006. With South Africa hosting in 2010 and Brazil in 2014, this will mean that 2018 will represent 12 years since Europe last hosted the World Cup.
Are the Europeans going to stand going without for twelve years? Or even sixteen years? Of course not! Who do you think got in Blatter’s ear about ditching the rotation policy in the first place?!
On top of that, look who is putting their hands up to host the World Cup from Europe:
• England (part of footballing royalty, the wealthiest domestic football competition in the World, hasn’t hosted since 1966, the only time they won the World Cup)
• Russia (good footballing pedigree, extremely deep pockets); and
• Holland/Belgium (both have proud World Cup histories; and while FIFA might generally frown on joint bids, these two closely linked Benelux countries putting a joint bid forward is not the same has Japan/Sth Korea putting a joint bid forward).
Speaking of footballing pedigrees …
3. Footballing pedigree
Australia has none. Sorry, but making the second round once in the 76 year history of the World Cup just doesn’t cut it. We may not like to admit it, but on the world footballing radar we are way, way, way over the horizon. Speaking of horizons …
4. Geography
Unfortunately, we are way, way, way over the horizon (geographically as well). Our time zone is atrocious. The big money is in the European time zones, and sorry, FIFA just isn’t going to give up that coin that easily. Australia’s only chance of turning this flaw around is with China’s economic and political influence continuing to grow, which it undoubtedly will. Which brings us to …
5. China
The growth of China’s economic and political influence. On top of the three strong European bidders mentioned above, China wants to bid for the 2018 World Cup as well! Ok, we defeated China in the race for the 2000 Olympics, but eighteen years on and China is, well, bigger and more influential! Everyone wants a slice of Chinese action in a way that they don’t want a slice of Australian action. And if that weren’t enough, the US and Mexico are throwing their hats into the ring as well.
Which brings us to …
6. Backroom deals
We went through all the wheeling and dealing, and palm greasing to get the 2000 Olympics, are we up to more Machiavellian manoeuvres?
In short, no.
I’ve only just read somewhere that England and Russia have done a deal. For Russia’s support in getting the 2018 World Cup, England will support Russia’s bid in getting the 2014 European cup.
And that’s just the start.
I fear that on this occasion, there is far too much stacked against us.
But if we realise this soon enough, we could turn our attention on the 2022 World Cup. For starters, three very good European bidders will be out of the picture (because Europe will not host it twice in a row, although they did do that in 1954 and 1958), and with a little luck, some of the other 2018 bidders might fall by the wayside.
On top of that, it gives us two more World Cup’s to make a mark – and that can count for a lot.
If we were smart, we would set our sights on 2022.
If we were really, really smart, we would be doing a deal with England right now.
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