The global finance crisis should be ringing alarm bells loud and clear as the AFL pushes on with its fanciful plans to base the competition’s 18th team in western Sydney. The league’s strategy is centred on being able to get a hefty increase in payments for television rights when they come up for renewal in 2012.
But this is a long way from being a lay-down misere. It certainly wouldn’t happen if the rights were up for negotiation now.
And, in the unlikely event that the world economic scene rids itself of all its woes in the next three years, there’s no assurance that big dollars will automatically be on offer from the television networks.
The current AFL deal under which the Seven and Ten networks are forking out $780 million over five years came about only because Kerry Packer goaded them into it by pitching in with that unrealistically high figure on behalf of Nine, knowing full well that his competitors had the right to match it and probably would.
Next time, with KP no longer with us, Nine is highly unlikely to even bother putting in a bid, given its commitment to rugby league, which comes a lot cheaper.
Nine’s new masters are not into spending big dollars on anything much these days, let alone a football code that is still like a foreign language to more than half their viewers.
All of which means there’s unlikely to be another bidding war like the last one to force Seven and Ten to pay top dollar.
Another pertinent factor is viewers’ resentment of delayed telecasts, and the networks’ indifference to their plight.
This year’s finals series had Seven and Ten scurrying for cover and asking the AFL to allow delayed transmissions of Friday and Saturday night games in Sydney and Brisbane, apart from the ones involving the Swans, partly because of a clash with Seven’s Olympics coverage but also because the networks feared poor ratings.
Live Friday night telecasts on Foxtel’s Main Event channel, which had happened throughout the season under an arrangement with Seven and the AFL, were conspicuous by their absence, with Main Event saying it hadn’t been asked, either by the network or the league, to telecast the finals matches.
The AFL was weak-kneed in agreeing to the networks’ pleas – after all, it had trumpeted better coverage in the northern states as an important step forward in its expansion plans when the rights agreement was signed.
It should have insisted that if Seven and Ten didn’t show the finals games live on their main channels in Sydney and Brisbane, they should hand them over to Main Event or run them on their new high-definition outlets.
There was some mumbling that the networks couldn’t use the HD channels because of regulations prohibiting multi-channelling. But, curiously, that hadn’t stopped Ten from showing some of the US Masters golf on HD instead of its main channel earlier in the year.
The answer is for the Federal Government to insist on a use-it-or-lose it system for major sports events, or for the anti-siphoning laws, under which the free-to-air channels get first crack at a ludicrously long list of events, to be scrapped or relaxed to a great degree.
It isn’t just football fans who have suffered under these archaic regulations, either. Remember the shemozzle when the Ashes cricket tour clashed with Wimbledon a few years ago?
It will be interesting, too, to see what happens to attendances at big sports events as a result of the current financial climate.
The people who fill the corporate boxes – largely affluent yuppies who make a living in the rarefied atmosphere of the sharemarket, where many of them owe their success to selling shares they don’t own – have been feeling the squeeze as credit has dried up.
There are reports of a glut of second-hand Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Alfa Romeos up for sale because, as the market has plunged, their “owners” have been forced to meet calls on margin loans they took out to buy shares, which in turn has meant they can’t afford the car payments.
Another report early this week said there were 200 houses in the million-dollar price bracket for sale in the affluent Sydney harbourside suburb of Mosman.
And while all this is going on, the AFL is pinning its hopes on pulling in more and more corporate dollars, including even higher TV rights payments, to support a team in the far less affluent western suburbs of Sin City.
But what will the outcome be if, as expected, Nine sits on its hands? It’s hard to see even a half-hearted bidding scuffle, let alone a war, if the only two players in the game are the present joint rights holders.
In those circumstances the rights outside the traditional Australian football states could go for a song.
Is that Half A Sixpence I can hear in the distance?
Anand Antony
Guest
I live in Calrlingford, a fairly affluent suburb in Sydney and what Woody Warambel says is what I see around. There is a lot of interest on rugby league as a spectator sports (as opposed to participation sport) . This is true even among the children of Asian immigrants. (If you consider first generation Asian immigrants, well, the Indians are interested mainly in Cricket and the Chinese are interested mainly in food for that matter). When the football season starts I have seen minibus takings students from the elite Kings School to the Parramatta stadium even though the game is probably not even played there. As for touch footy a large number of kids in the affluent Oatlands and surrounding area play the game. Probably this is one factor in driving up the interest in league as a spectator sport.
Michael C
Guest
Woody Warambel - the figures stated have zero to do with juniors directly. It's Australian Sports commission survey results (so, extrapolated statistical data with appropriate levels of statistical reasoning and 'correction'). The surveys are done annually, for over 15 year olds - and generally based on a sample size of over 17,000. It gives a nice break down on age groupings, organised vs 'un organised' participation. It PROBABLY includes certain 'support' roles as 'participation' - such as umpiring coaching - - I would presume. Things that DO become obvious include - soccer wins out over the age of 35 and also is more likely to be 'un organised' activity. But - look - it's their data, their rationale - - it does however give a cute year on year reference and is a bit better than some of the annectdotal stuff people present on here. It also, steps away from code specific posturing about just what they do and don't count in their own figures. Always seems that there is NO capacity to compare apples with apples relying on code/competition specific data comparisons. NAB quoted the 28,000 QLD pariticpants - - they are quite separate to juniors at clubs. regarding adults etc playing/participating - - I've no idea really.
Woody Warambel
Guest
Guys The link to the Torque Report report disappeared soon after it was printed. It appeared in the Australian in March or April 2004 (I think) & as I recall it was in a the Advertising or Media Supplement Section. Don't know who funded it but by its nature it would have to be Australia-wide.
Midfielder
Guest
Woody Interesting comments and quotes ......... was this an Australia wide survey.
Redb
Roar Guru
Can we have a link to this torque report. Some of the comments are contentious. Who funded the report? ;-) Redb
Woody Warambel
Guest
More from the Torque Report: '"WHAT is the richest sport in Australia as measured by fan base? Rugby union is likely to be the first sport to jump to mind - all those tweed jackets, leather elbow patches, Range Rovers and merchant bankers would seemingly guarantee the No.1 spot. But a new survey by data marketing group, [COLOR=#000000]Torque, has found while union certainly has more seriously rich fans, rugby league is Australia's richest sport. This is partly because it has more fans in the nation's most populous and expensive state, but it's still good news for a code widely regarded as the sport of the working class. Torque says rugby league is the richest sport in "terms of the total affluence of its supporter base" - just beating the Australian Football League. Part of the reason for this is that average incomes in rugby league strongholds NSW and Queensland are higher than in southern AFL states such as Victoria and South Australia. ... It also raises the question of whether rugby league has been marketing itself to the right audience. ... The image of the game is not reflected by its fan base," Cooper says. "But it is surprising that rugby league is as mid-market as it is." ...rugby league has more than its fair share of executive, professional & managerial supporters the survey found. "
Woody Warambel
Guest
Millster where is your evidence that RL fans are from a lower socio -economic strata than AFL fans? Here's an extract from a survey that suggests otherwise: Torque Reports (released 2004): ."..It found league was over-represented in the $100,001 to $150,000 household income bracket compared to the general population, but under-represented in the less than $30,000 band. Of those that nominated league as their preferred sport, 13.4 per cent of league’s supporter base fell in between $100,000 and $150,000, while 22.36 per cent earned less than $30,000. League only just fell short of toppling rugby union in the $100,000 to $150,000 category, with 13.68 per cent of those identifying themselves as union fans falling in that band. The AFL could find only 9.25 per cent in that category to be the poor relation of both. Torque managing partner Sean Cooper says the figures contradict conventional wisdom that league almost exclusively a blue-collar sport. “The image of the game is not reflected by its fan base,” Cooper says. “But it is surprising that rugby league is as mid-market as it is.” It also raises the question of whether the rugby league has been marketing itself to the right audience. Of the 73 respondents in the $150,000 to $200,000 category, 2.4 per cent identified as rugby league fans, 3.36 per cent were union and 2.83 per cent AFL. Beyond $200,000, the split of the 38 sport fans was 1.2 per cent league, 2.69 per cent union and 1.1 per cent AFL. Torque also found that rugby league had more than its fair share of fans classified as senior government or business manager or executive. While it was doing well in the professional ranks, it missed out with farmers who make up less than 1 per cent of its fan base. "
Woody Warambel
Guest
Michael I very much doubt your AFL participation numbers in Queensland. In the Brisbane region(about 2.5 million) they say they have only 6,000 juniors: http://www.sportingpulse.com/assoc_page.cgi?client=1-4711-0-0-0&sID=56053&news_task=DETAIL&articleID=4878656§ionID=56053 The AFL have by a long long way the smallest participation of any of the football codes in Queensland.
Michael C
Guest
Trugo - was that the game based on the inside of a rail carriage?
Redb
Roar Guru
Jason, Could be right about Ch 9, they could even disappear altogether and a new entrant appears. If they survive, private equity does not mean conservative either. Redb
Jason Cave
Guest
It'll be interesting to see what Channel Nine does re TV sports rights. Seeing that Nine is now owned by a foreign privete equity interest, that'll mean that Nine might not go out hard to get the TV rights for big sports like they once used to under the late Kerry Packer, who forked out millions of dollars for the US Major golf tournaments, Wimbledon, Formula 1 TV rights. In fact be prepared to see Nine staying out of the AFL TV rights, because the network is about to undergo possibly the biggest shake-up in its history-and it could happen sooner rather than later.
Redb
Guest
Link, Right back at ya. You better hope David Gallop does not share your vision for touch footy's pathway to RL in Vic. :-) Redb
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Bruce anyone who lives further than 10 km from the Melbourne docks ain't gonna know what you mean when you mention Trugo!
Bruce Walkley
Guest
Link, it's interesting to see touch footy has such a toehold in Albert Park, which means that general area has sports participation alive and well from the cradle almost to the grave - I believe the Trugo green in South Melbourne, just along the street from where I once lived, is still going strong?
The Link
Guest
RedB, Junior touch is a major sport, particularly in NSW/QLD. There's National and State champs every year. Victoria combine with SA and Tassie as the Crusaders in the National champs. Better hope Andrew Demeitrieu doesn't share the same naivety in assessing sport in NSW and QLD, particularly in assessing AusKick numbers.
Michael C
Guest
Redb - exactly right, and we'd hope they bring a bit of a 'AFL' flavour to the Rugby codes.........a bit like that great early Aust Football talent Dally Messenger upon his return to Sydney after a couple of years in South Melbourne.......
Redb
Guest
MC, The Link, I think Touch footy is played for fitness for older folk, not a major junior sport by any measure and certainly far less connection with rugby league. I know of Touch Footy from the Rivernia (Albury-Wodonga), apart from Albert Park Comp it is minimal at best. Albert park is the home for a wide variety of sports and always has been. great facilties. TT, Don't get touchy :-) about the rugby rejects playing Aussie Rules that is going to happen as AR spreads its wings, the more relevant and interesting development is the 17 yo (Nick Price?) who is a promising rugby and Aussie Rules junior but has chosen Aussie Rules due to GC 17. It is a demonstration that Aussie Rules is more advanced in NSW and QLD than the rugbies in Vic, WA,SA,etc. Eventually we will see some Aussie Rules juniors in heartland states choose rugby if their body type and/or game preference is rugby . Redb
Michael C
Guest
oikee - remember, those figures off the ERAS survey are simply based on a 17,000 + survey sample across the country, metro/ regional, male, female and age ranges. Obviously the relative indicativeness of them improves with 'positive' responses, so, the larger the figure in a given state, the more indicative it should be....such that - I've omitted a lot of the 'asterix' markers for figures that are deemed to extrapolate outside of reasonable tolerances. I've got the reports dating back a few years - - the main interest there is the trend over about a 5 year period. I haven't got it all in a neat xl workbook yet, I'll get around to that, - - -might have to send it home tonight!!! - - - - potential RU/RL fans............be those folk bursting down the gates at Olympic Park!!.......... you'd be surprised, a lot of 'footy' players enjoy playing touch footy at training as a variation to regular footy training............but............we wouldn't want to play RL or RU themselves - - - - - there's a fair distinction.........almost like running vs walking events at the Olympics.
oikee
Guest
No wonder victoria has to buy new zealand youngsters. :) Shame on you victoria .:)
oikee
Guest
By the way M.C i found those figures for league in victoria very piss poor, i expect them to improve over the next 5 years, please keep me informed. :)