By Bruce Walkley
October 15th 2008 @ 1:50am
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Nine won’t prop up the rights price next time around
The global finance crisis should be ringing alarm bells loud and clear as the AFL pushes on with its fanciful plans to base the competition’s 18th team in western Sydney. The league’s strategy is centred on being able to get a hefty increase in payments for television rights when they come up for renewal in 2012.
But this is a long way from being a lay-down misere. It certainly wouldn’t happen if the rights were up for negotiation now.
And, in the unlikely event that the world economic scene rids itself of all its woes in the next three years, there’s no assurance that big dollars will automatically be on offer from the television networks.
The current AFL deal under which the Seven and Ten networks are forking out $780 million over five years came about only because Kerry Packer goaded them into it by pitching in with that unrealistically high figure on behalf of Nine, knowing full well that his competitors had the right to match it and probably would.
Next time, with KP no longer with us, Nine is highly unlikely to even bother putting in a bid, given its commitment to rugby league, which comes a lot cheaper.
Nine’s new masters are not into spending big dollars on anything much these days, let alone a football code that is still like a foreign language to more than half their viewers.
All of which means there’s unlikely to be another bidding war like the last one to force Seven and Ten to pay top dollar.
Another pertinent factor is viewers’ resentment of delayed telecasts, and the networks’ indifference to their plight.
This year’s finals series had Seven and Ten scurrying for cover and asking the AFL to allow delayed transmissions of Friday and Saturday night games in Sydney and Brisbane, apart from the ones involving the Swans, partly because of a clash with Seven’s Olympics coverage but also because the networks feared poor ratings.
Live Friday night telecasts on Foxtel’s Main Event channel, which had happened throughout the season under an arrangement with Seven and the AFL, were conspicuous by their absence, with Main Event saying it hadn’t been asked, either by the network or the league, to telecast the finals matches.
The AFL was weak-kneed in agreeing to the networks’ pleas – after all, it had trumpeted better coverage in the northern states as an important step forward in its expansion plans when the rights agreement was signed.
It should have insisted that if Seven and Ten didn’t show the finals games live on their main channels in Sydney and Brisbane, they should hand them over to Main Event or run them on their new high-definition outlets.
There was some mumbling that the networks couldn’t use the HD channels because of regulations prohibiting multi-channelling. But, curiously, that hadn’t stopped Ten from showing some of the US Masters golf on HD instead of its main channel earlier in the year.
The answer is for the Federal Government to insist on a use-it-or-lose it system for major sports events, or for the anti-siphoning laws, under which the free-to-air channels get first crack at a ludicrously long list of events, to be scrapped or relaxed to a great degree.
It isn’t just football fans who have suffered under these archaic regulations, either. Remember the shemozzle when the Ashes cricket tour clashed with Wimbledon a few years ago?
It will be interesting, too, to see what happens to attendances at big sports events as a result of the current financial climate.
The people who fill the corporate boxes – largely affluent yuppies who make a living in the rarefied atmosphere of the sharemarket, where many of them owe their success to selling shares they don’t own – have been feeling the squeeze as credit has dried up.
There are reports of a glut of second-hand Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Alfa Romeos up for sale because, as the market has plunged, their “owners” have been forced to meet calls on margin loans they took out to buy shares, which in turn has meant they can’t afford the car payments.
Another report early this week said there were 200 houses in the million-dollar price bracket for sale in the affluent Sydney harbourside suburb of Mosman.
And while all this is going on, the AFL is pinning its hopes on pulling in more and more corporate dollars, including even higher TV rights payments, to support a team in the far less affluent western suburbs of Sin City.
But what will the outcome be if, as expected, Nine sits on its hands? It’s hard to see even a half-hearted bidding scuffle, let alone a war, if the only two players in the game are the present joint rights holders.
In those circumstances the rights outside the traditional Australian football states could go for a song.
Is that Half A Sixpence I can hear in the distance?
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Suzy Orman said | October 15th 2008 @ 1:49am | Report comment
There are reports of a glut of second-hand Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Alfa Romeos up for sale because, as the market has plunged, their “owners” have been forced to meet calls on margin loans they took out to buy shares, which in turn has meant they can’t afford the car lease payments.
Redb said | October 15th 2008 @ 6:28am | Report comment
There was a comment on the ABC’s 7:30 Report the other night that everything discussed in parliament now is spoken about through the prism of the global financial crisis (GFC).
This is not too dissimilar to the days, weeks and months post Sept 11 when all things terrorism dominated the mindset. We still live with the results but mostly only when travelling through airports, ahh the joy of being vaccumed for explosives.
At the moment its the GFC and every new project is under inspection as the world shakes with the daily tremors of Wall Street, so why should sport be any different? The point is don’t fret most horrors won’t happen but a few unfortunately will.
The AFL is one year into a five year contract. Who really knows how the AFL got to its $780 million - the fact is it did. The AFL is debt free and has an enormous financial reserves for the future.
The other fact is ever since CH 7 won back the AFL rights it has taken the lead in the overall ratings and CH 9 has declined. Did Kerry Packer know something we all did’nt back then?
Will there be less money for all sport let alone the AFL? Who knows? The $780 million maybe a one off - what an endowment of the future for Aussie Rules. It’s certainly money that can be considered a bonus.
Redb
Pippinu said | October 15th 2008 @ 7:14am | Report comment
These things can be difficult to call three years in advance - but I will say this - in respect of the previous TV rights of around $500 million many thought it would never be surpassed.
The Link said | October 15th 2008 @ 8:17am | Report comment
Bruce, some sanity at last in looking at the latest AFL deal. The AFL by rights should have the biggest deal and still will come next negotiation, but the margin is unlikely to be as high. Of course KP bidded the price up last time.
Other codes can point to it as the yardstick and perhaps bid themselves up based on their relative merits
Millster said | October 15th 2008 @ 8:42am | Report comment
Bruce - while we have some specific points of disagreement that have previously been discussed (e.g. on the Main Event / Live issue and finals) I think you raise an enormously interesting point here.
Channel 9 has very rapidly changed as a power in the FTA landscape. Unless another drastic shift occurs it will go into negotiations with the codes from a position of financial and ratings weakness, and being owned by foreign private equity interests who have shown across the network a scant regard for any loyalty to nine’s strengths or Packer’s former strategy (e.g. the demolition of what was formerly an agenda-setting news desk).
So I agree that they will be a glaring omission on the “demand” side of the supply-demand equation that will determine the value of TV rights next time around.
At least 9 is not the incumbent for AFL, which relies on the stronger networks as its platform and has the safety of diversification through dealings with 7, 10 and Fox.
MAJOR issue for Rugby League I think. League’s demographic is a lower socio-economic class than AFL’s and therefore less likely to switch to PayTV, though the League offering on PayTV is quite good. League is also deeply identified with 9; indeed 9 has ‘the voice of the game’ and all other long-term personnel and infrastructure and expertise vested within itself. So if 9’s new owners decide to cover League ‘on the cheap’, the impact on the ability for that code to reach its core market will be immediate and profound. I believe this so much that if I was Gallop, I would be in discussions right now with Fox to offer League supporters a limited “Foxsports Light” offering that ensured affordable access to the code that was not at the mercy of 9’s future.
Football is the interesting one. On the one hand 9 may be attracted to is as a code which would be cheaper to buy up-front and a growth investment for the future. Also, with ACL and Socceroos matches mostly mid-week (so not crowded out by other sports deals) and with the ability to balance HAL with PayTV (e.g. FTA taking one ‘match of the week’ and the other 3-4 on Fox) it is a flexible footprint. But again 9’s owners may be so intent on cost-cutting that such a gamble is not on the cards. Indeed, WC2002 aside, it is 10 that has most recently dabbled in FTA football coverage, with the Beckham game shown live and with reasonable reporting of the code on the Sports Tonight platform. The offering would eld up being balanced not identically to, but not unlike, that of Union with Ch7 and Fox sharing the internationals and club game.
Back to AFL, I think it will retain the biggest deal and the strongest position next time around. Football is positioned to overtake League for #2 spot, but that relies on the ACL model working for a couple of years and on 2010 World Cup qualification. League is in a very vulnerable position with respect to its TV footprint.
The Link said | October 15th 2008 @ 8:55am | Report comment
Millster, why wouldn’t 7 or 10 pick up Rugby League? Its the consistently highest rating sport by far in NSW and QLD and stacks up well nationally, particularly for SOO. Channel 9 has had the rights for about 15 years for RL, but before that it was mixed. Channel 7 was also once the voice of the game for AFL, but the last AFL deal (prioir to current one) show that things can change.
Remind me again if football is ‘cheaper to buy up front’ then why will it get a better deal than other codes (except AFL)?
Michael C said | October 15th 2008 @ 9:06am | Report comment
Who actually retains the final right of offer for the next AFL bidding process? Last time, Packer was able to go hard knowing that Ch.7 had purchased the rights to make the final bid. What’s the dynamic for the next round?
The AFL is 2 years into the 5 year agreement, traditionally the bidding process is in year 4, towards the end, so, mid/late 2010 we’d see the issue at a head.
What can happen between now and then?
A lot. That’s for sure.
but - - recognition that ‘potential for NEW BUSINESS’ is the key driver for Foxtel has allowed some NRL advocates to perhaps see the light that their historical ‘power base’ of Foxtel dominance is not a plank upon which to stand to demand increased payments going forward.
The question is what value soccer offers in such respects? As, for fans of EPL and other international leagues - foxtel is already their domain - what value does the HAL provide on that front?? And a few of us agree the next few years for the HAL might actually be far more graft and hard yards consolidation rather than the first 3 years of upward trending crowds (and ‘interest’).
The AFL position might actually be strengthened in the relativity of the ‘domestic football market’.
However, the capacity by media providers to pay, pay more or for the AFL to self promote and generate revenue - - that’ll all be interesting.
What is noticeable - in the tv ratings - when people speak of the tremendous value the socceroos might provide - - is that the RUWC of 2003 provided some massive ratings events - -and yet, 5 years on, the Wallabies don’t hit Melb screens until after midnight.
Millster said | October 15th 2008 @ 9:25am | Report comment
The Link - interesting and valid points. On why 7 or 10 wouldn’t pick up League, I see no fundamental reason apart from the AFL’s insistence on a certain amount of live or near-live coverage even in those northern non-core markets, which would clash potentially with League coverage. But those two networks would then have to invest in all codes, and so the spoils to each code would be lesser. Also when I look at those other network shows that are well supported and therefore good for revenues I see them addressing a particular set of demographics that is different to the core League market. League brings a substantial TV audience but (completely on gut feel) I don’t think it is the particular audience that the networks and advertisers most want.
Football would be cheaper to buy up front in terms of the FTA component, which would not likely cover all HAL but which would include some international games in the mix. ‘Cheaper’ was shorthand (so sorry for confusion) for flexibility and value given the total package and the way it could be split up between different platforms. I was not suggesting that the aggregate cost of rights for all of football would be cheap in the 2012 timeframe!
The Link said | October 15th 2008 @ 10:02am | Report comment
Millster, I wish football all the best in getting a bigger TV deal. I’m assuming the WC rights go to FIFA not the FFA, so that may limit what the FFA will get for FTA rights.
It will be interesting how the A-League, ACL, WC quals and Asian Cup rights are divied up, or if they’ll be a package.
I’ve said before that getting on the anti-siphoning list is in the best interest of Football to grow it domestically.
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 10:52am | Report comment
The next t/v rights deal for league will more than likely be split up, Origin, internationals, nrl , so the rights will improve, anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming, even if its only watched in 2 states, origin is a showpeice event, the game is shown throughout asia and europe and is played on other outlets around the world, let rugby league have some glory, or have you got something better for me to watch in the middle of winter.
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 10:55am | Report comment
AFL is moving into new markets, Nsw and queensland, so they have a bigger audience also.
Soccer has the whole summer market, if they dont do well then thats there problem.
AllBlackfan said | October 15th 2008 @ 1:21pm | Report comment
Oikee, AFL may be moving into new markets but that doesn’t mean they will have a bigger audience. Do U assume those untapped areas of NSW and Qld are all AFl mad and can’t wait to watch Collingwood-Carlton (??!??) live on a Friday night?
I live and work in western Sydney. Nobody knows the AFL is coming here and they don’t care. The AFL is going to have to sink A LOT of money over a generation or two to make a second team even feasible.
The news that Nine has picked up the rugby UNION World Cup rights for 2011 and 2015 should also make life more interesting.
Seven’s rugby coverage has been absolutely disgraceful. They should have lost the rights a long time ago. Now Nine has the RU Cup rights. I believe this will strengthen its hand in NSW and Qld (although how much is a guess).
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 3:18pm | Report comment
Thanks for mentioning Union allblack, maybe this is why nrl are talking about changing the rights package, the reason why i mentioned Aussie rules is because rivalry between state teams will make veiwers more interested allblack, same goes for any code really, common sense.This is why aussie rules is expanding, along with soccer. The states get more interested in a game between two of there own teams. Brisabne and the coast have a huge rivalry, even between councils.
Redb said | October 15th 2008 @ 3:34pm | Report comment
All Black Fan,
Did you know the AFL Grand Final between Hawthorn and Geelong (Victorian clubs) rated at 320,000 in Sydney and 226,000 in Brisbane. As a reference the Brisbane audience for the NRL GF was 500,000.
The AFL is doing a lot of work with juniors in Sydney and whilst I agree it too soon for a western Sydney team, the foundations are being built from the ground up.
Also re Gold Coast. A 17 y.o who played rugby union (union at international level) and Aussie Rules just signed up for GC17 the new AFL Gold Coast team - this is not a flood, but an illustration that sometimes you have to be bold and build it before they come.
The AFL is not ever going to be the biggest in NSW and QLD but it has a solid niche presence and tht is growing at grass roots level- I cant say the same thing about union in VIC, SA, WA or Tas.
Rugby World Cup rights are a 1 in 4 year event - hardly comparable to a game that for 30 weeks dominates the landscape in half the country and has a solid niche in the other half.
The main point about TV ratings in Sydney and Brisbane is the AFL needs to lift its game in terms of promotion and the broadcast delivery of Aussie Rules, in other words Sydney and Brisbane folk are used to the action on TV being better presented with the rugby codes. The AFL is a much harder game to televise due to the speed of the game and size of the playing surface but that is the challenge for the AFL going forward in those markets. I wouldn’t discount technology catching up in the next few years.
Redb
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 3:49pm | Report comment
Yes i wont get into or say anymore about the veiwing figures redb for the Afl grand final, it was on at the time and like i said my dad and sister watched the game, maybe a better veiw would be a game played by the lions, anyway like i said, give us rivalry and you get more support.
And if you have the veiwing figures for the Union game played in brisbane might even help, remember we are a league state, but we still watch other sports at the top level, tonites soccer match will prove this, but what else is on? so comparisians are not really heathy across the board, people just watch whats on , people who like sports. My tonga friend watches all sport.
AllBlackfan said | October 15th 2008 @ 3:57pm | Report comment
Redb, who says a game like union isn’t growing at the grassroots game in those states you mentioned?
You probably just don’t read about it in the mainstream media of those states.
I’m hearing good things about the growth of the game in Victoria but it’s steadfast, not spectacular.
The game is there for the long haul; the development strategy is just different.
The AFL’s bling bling approach is not everyone’s cup of tea!
What really galls me about the AFL is their arrogance; they are behaving as if everyone in Sydney will fall over and kiss their feet as they walk about.
Don’t think so!!
Millster said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:02pm | Report comment
Oikee - I agree for once. I always think whenever MC says that Wallabies are on at midnight in Melbourne that it becomes a self-perpetuating myth. They rate low so they are on late so they rate low os they are on late…. vicious cycle. Commit to showing them for 1-2 years in prime time and I’ll bet you have a growing audience for the game. Aussies fundamentally like any sporting contest that is good.
AllBlackFan - I want the AFL to try West Syd. I think they will burn a ton of money in the process for marginal return. They would be smarter to go to Tassie, as Bruce W wrote about a while back. That state deserves some love from a code, even if its the wrong one
Redb said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:17pm | Report comment
AllBlackfan,
I could also say that you probably don’t notice the AFL Auskick clinics in Sydney either.
AFL - What arrogance is that? What quotes? - The AFL wants to establish a team in Western Sydney - is that arrogant in itself?
Get over it.
I prefer rugby union over league, but any progress made by rugby union post WC 2003 in Victoria has quickly evaporated with the absence of a Melb Super 14 team and the poor performance of the Wallabies over the last 2-3 years. Whilst rugby league is off the radar at junior level and followed mostly by expat Kiwis, I think most Victorians generally would now think ‘rugby’ means rugby league. That was not the case 5 years ago.
Millster,
Why do you want the AFL to burn a ton of money in western Sydney? -a little mean spirited.
Redb
Redb said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:24pm | Report comment
Oikee,
My comments on ratings wer not a sleight at the NRL , but rather jsut pointing out that the AFL audience exists in Brisbane, it is not as big as the NRL, but it exists and therefore forms part of the AFL TV rights deal.
The real kicker is Melbourne and AFL. 1.3 million watched the AFL Grand Final - that is huge and worth big money to TV networks such is the domination of AFL in Melbourne.
In fact the AFL has an enormous tapped database to offer sponsors, TV,etc it had 570,000 members of AFL clubs this year. Show me an equally rusted on fan base in this country.
Those 570,000 members are tangible for marketers in tough times as literal support. TV fans are much harder to pin down.
Redb
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:30pm | Report comment
Agree redb, you need presense, otherwise how do you acheive growth. As for millster and their ton of money, yeah , burn it up and give us a level playing feild.
I wont mention the name Palmer ever again. ;] ^^ Believe it or not all-black , league is broke . Union has its international game.
oikee said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:32pm | Report comment
I know redb, i am not knocking you, i agree with you.
Michael C said | October 15th 2008 @ 4:46pm | Report comment
allblackfan -
AFL arrogance???
arrogance is what Clive Palmer is going on about on the Gold Coast.
It isn’t arrogance to be working 20 year plans. The AFL has been developing grass roots footy with a niche presence and central focus points through Sydney for quite some time.
Yep - reality is that moving in your circles you may well be blinded entirely to the AFL presence. But, there are about 600-700 auskick clinics in NSW, and in recent years the number of registered players and teams has increased - - that transition from auskick to teams/clubs is important. Obviously.
THe AFL is investing heaps of money, time and effort - - thus far with no promise of return - - hardly arrogant………sounds a lot like respectful foundation building.
Where as, RL did no real groundwork in Melbourne, suddenly we have the Storm - populated entirely by QLD lads - and then they whinge in Sydney that we only get 10K on a cold July night in Melbourne!!!! Talk about arrogant.
RU - - chose to overlook Melb for a super 14 team and then whinge that we didn’t get behind the Rebels (is that what they were called - again, like RL, a team of NSW and QLD displaced players)…………….what arrogance!!!
Note - the AFL has been working hard to improve the pathways for NSW kids, as they have with QLD kids - - to increase the relevance of the ‘Top down’ product - when it comes - by having done a fair bit of ‘bottom up’ foundation building.
I’d have thought that the AFL have proven to be beneficial - - that it’s recognised the NRL has effectively underserviced and developed their supposed Western Suburbs ‘heartland’ - - - surely the AFL putting a focus there is a good thing???
And - - allblackfan - - you’d be aware of Michael Byrne as the AB’s kicking coach, and Nick Evans - who was invited to try out with the Sydney Swans because he’d played AFL in Auckland - which helped develop his RU game and kicking game especially, and you’d be aware of the Wellington Hurricanes playing a practice match of AFL vs the amateur Wellington Tigers - - - ‘cos, outside of Sydney, people are becoming aware that AFL is a really good x-training for aspiring RU players. Learn to embrace it!!!!!
Michael C said | October 15th 2008 @ 5:15pm | Report comment
The Aust sports commission runs regular ‘participation in exercise, recreation and sport’ surveys - - generally survey around 17,000plus nationally (same standard as ABS surveys). For over 15 years old - so, not being inflated by lots of auskick kids.
These have certainly illustrated strong growth for AFL in QLD and NSw.
eg. NSW 33,700 and QLD 50,200 (males) and Vic 160,100.
compared to
RL
NSW 96,500 and QLD 69,400 and Vic 5900
and
RU
NSW 55,200 and QLD 80,200 and Vic 5800.
Now - - I don’t for a minute suggest this is entirely accurate - - it’s a statistical survey - - but it shows trends over time (and tracing back previous ERAS survey results - - there was one that had some astounding AFL figures {able to be ignored - i.e. too good} - - but the rest seem to fit into a nice neat trend line)
So - - on the basis of these, AFL has a far, far better claim to seek to expand their ‘elite’ presence in NSW and QLD than does either RL or RU in Victoria………a far, far better claim. ANd again, this is without reference to auskick numbers - and the AFL is obviously hoping that the GC17 and WS18 sides will give added impetus to the Auskick programs in building and consolidating the local leagues ….. from the ground up.
btw - soccer by comparison
NSW 246,700 and QLD 66,200 and Vic 102,300
btw - the importance of QLD in AFL relativity:
% of national males pariticipants over age 15 as per the survey:
Vic 39.7%, WA 19.4%, SA 14%, and who is fourth? Tassie?…..nah!!, QLD, 12.4% with a bullet, then, NSW 8.3% and then you get to Tassie at 4%, NT 1.4% and ACT 0.7%.
So, you can see why there’s fair argument for pushing ahead with GC17 and WS18 ahead of a Tassie team - - especially factoring in growth potential.
NAB auskick in Tassie, about 150 centres, for about 8650 kids. In QLD, about 710 centres for around 28,000 kids, In Vic, about 660 centres for over 46,000 kids………….and in NSW, around 40,000 participants in auskick……….
…again, you see why the AFL aren’t arrogant by looking at expansion into NSW and QLD - - it’s actually common sense…………they’ve been doing the ground work for a good while now. It would waste all that work to turn their back on it. 1 game a week of AFL in Syd and Brisbane is hardly going to rock the boat of the NRL or RU etc…..but, it’s the least the AFL can do for it’s growing support base.
There’s actually plenty of people to go around………especially given the low level of attendance in the NRL.
True Tah said | October 15th 2008 @ 6:21pm | Report comment
MC,
if Nick Evans was asked to sign up for the Sydney Swans does that mean Daniel Carter would have been selected in the Dream Team?
Redb said | October 15th 2008 @ 7:41pm | Report comment
True Tah,
Who is Daniel Carter?
Redb
True Tah said | October 15th 2008 @ 8:07pm | Report comment
Redb,
All Black fly-half currently on a six-month contract with Perpignan in the South of France for about $1.5 million.
Probably one of the best rugby players in the world, and part of the reason Nick Evans went north when he realised he couldn’t crack All Black fly-half position.
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 5:20am | Report comment
TT & Redb -
yeah, Nick Evans, despite being well rated and having a highly regarded kicking game……….perhaps chose wrong to stick with RU in the first place, but he backed in his childhood dream so fair enough.
The interesting thing now is that, for example, a 16 yr old like Liam Ackland (NZ Falcons youngest member and son of NZ RL assistant coach) has a burning desire to crack the AFL…..so, perhaps the next ‘Nick Evans’ might choose a different path.
Daniel Carter ………. just one of many Kiwis on favourable visa entry to France who are cleaning up on monies offered……….and part of what squeezed out Mike Pyke, the Canadian RUWC full back who is having a crack as an international rookie with the Sydney Swans.
oikee said | October 16th 2008 @ 7:48am | Report comment
Interesting facts there M.C but not really surprised by the queensland figures, i have mentioned that aussie rules has been played strongly for over 30 years up here, what does suprise me is soccer, its very low but we still have massive interest for teams and last nite the socceroos enjoyed a full house at suncorp, this all gels well for more stadium being built up here in queensland which to me is a good thing, puts you on the map so to speak. What we are lacking is a big one, and when they build it, not if, but when they build it they will probably get it right to acommadate every code. There was talk off a large stadium being built a few years ago out at the port of brisbane, i would say that this might be back on the agenda at some time, sports going through the roof up here, seems like we just cant get enough at the moment. Which is good for all codes.
No biase up here.
Also see that they have pretty boy Beckham and the galaxy mob coming to brisbane in december to play our little team “the roar” Who would have thought hey.
oikee said | October 16th 2008 @ 7:51am | Report comment
30 years ago Brisbane was the laughing stock city of oz, just goes to show how true the “if you build it they will come” line is, maybe tassie needs to try this.
Redb said | October 16th 2008 @ 8:03am | Report comment
Some good stats there MC. QLD Aussie Rules numbers very robust.
Redb
The Link said | October 16th 2008 @ 8:21am | Report comment
Would be interested in the participation figures for Touch, particularly for the southern states / WA. If we quote auskick for AFL then Touch should be also quoted for RL or even RU.
oikee said | October 16th 2008 @ 8:31am | Report comment
I take back that statement i made about building a bigger stadium, and this was the issue about building a large stadium last time, it would detract from the 2 big stadiums we already have. The gabba and suncorp, maybe they might build some decent ones on the coast.
True Tah said | October 16th 2008 @ 9:25am | Report comment
MC,
Im sorry but if Mike Pyke can crack it in AFL it may not be the best, put it this way, if he was a vital player, his old club in France would have done what they could to keep him…if he does crack it at the Swans, then imagine how guys like Pierre Spies, Richie McCaw, Ali Williams and Bryan Habana would go in Australian Football?
AllBlackfan said | October 16th 2008 @ 10:22am | Report comment
Badly, I would imagine, True Tah.
But you’re right about Pyke; if his French club wanted to keep him, they would have.
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 12:35pm | Report comment
TT -
who knows re Mike Pyke - - for his size he’s trying as a ruckman, which is his best chance mature age ‘conversion’. He’s got some fair attributes, and mostly it might just come down to the attributes within his head.
Pyke and other Canadians are finding it very hard now, especially in France - because of visa issues, for them compared to the 100s (1000s?) of kiwis over there - - they can’t get a look in - Pyke had an injury that effectively pushed him out. I gather.
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 12:43pm | Report comment
The Link -
these surveys are of over 15 year olds only - - so, those figures for adult participation don’t relate to auskick - - the reason I DID mention auskick was around the base the AFL is building from that age up - - and when you consider that relative to the reasonable paritipation numbers they are building - - then there’s certainly a pretty strong argument for getting a 2nd team into especially QLD and also NSW.
re touch footy (via these surveys for over 15 yos)
National -
240K (M) 127.2K (F)
ACT : 5.1 and 1.3
NSW : 96.1 and 74.5
NT : 2.5 and 2.4
QLD : 115.3 & 26.7
SA : 10.4 and 5.2
Tas : 1.5 and 1.7
Vic : 2.6 and 9.3
WA : 6.5 and 6.1
Touch I find curious - - is it a summer sport for rugby types, or is it what you play if you find rugby too rough?
The Link said | October 16th 2008 @ 2:26pm | Report comment
MC, thanks for that. A more recent sample would make interesting reading. You hear anything from 400k up to 900k including school kids bandied about.
Victorian touch for example quotes that there are 650 teams in Victorian Touch affiliated comps, not insignificant, particularly given that Victoria is considered greenfields for RL in particular. If the Storm are not tapping into this then they are mad.
To answer your question its a bit of both really. Many top RL players have a touch background, Benji Marshall the most notable recent example. In womens touch the crossover to RL and RU is even more direct.
There’s always talk about how futsal should always form part of the futbol ‘ciriculum’ in this country however touch is just as important for development RL in particular in my view.
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 2:43pm | Report comment
The Link -
must be the circles some of us move in - I don’t know if I’ve ever encountered a Victorian who has stated that they play, nor seen any touch footy anywhere played.
No doubt it’s out there…..and via sportingpulse is looks like a lot is mix/social and on Monday evenings and the like…….so, no wonder I don’t stumble across it!!
Certainly in Vic, SA etc….grounds are too hard for Rugby…….touch would be the nearest you’d do…….and years ago I’d've probably played it in summer for fitness for footy.
Pippinu said | October 16th 2008 @ 2:52pm | Report comment
Anyone know where I can look up the Fox sports ratings?
The Link said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:02pm | Report comment
MC - the Albert Park comp is meant to be one of the largest and has around 80 corporate teams.
The more you dig, the more you may find the closet Victorian touch player (read dormant RL or RU fan
)
The Link said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:04pm | Report comment
Pip - Astra’s your best bet, but probably wont be up until the end of the ratings week.
http://www.astra.org.au/home.asp
oikee said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:05pm | Report comment
By the way M.C i found those figures for league in victoria very piss poor, i expect them to improve over the next 5 years, please keep me informed.
oikee said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:07pm | Report comment
No wonder victoria has to buy new zealand youngsters.
Shame on you victoria .:)
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:39pm | Report comment
oikee -
remember, those figures off the ERAS survey are simply based on a 17,000 + survey sample across the country, metro/ regional, male, female and age ranges.
Obviously the relative indicativeness of them improves with ‘positive’ responses, so, the larger the figure in a given state, the more indicative it should be….such that - I’ve omitted a lot of the ‘asterix’ markers for figures that are deemed to extrapolate outside of reasonable tolerances.
I’ve got the reports dating back a few years - - the main interest there is the trend over about a 5 year period.
I haven’t got it all in a neat xl workbook yet, I’ll get around to that, - - -might have to send it home tonight!!!
- - - - potential RU/RL fans…………be those folk bursting down the gates at Olympic Park!!……….
you’d be surprised, a lot of ‘footy’ players enjoy playing touch footy at training as a variation to regular footy training…………but…………we wouldn’t want to play RL or RU themselves - - - - - there’s a fair distinction………almost like running vs walking events at the Olympics.
Redb said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:43pm | Report comment
MC, The Link,
I think Touch footy is played for fitness for older folk, not a major junior sport by any measure and certainly far less connection with rugby league.
I know of Touch Footy from the Rivernia (Albury-Wodonga), apart from Albert Park Comp it is minimal at best. Albert park is the home for a wide variety of sports and always has been. great facilties.
TT,
Don’t get touchy
about the rugby rejects playing Aussie Rules that is going to happen as AR spreads its wings, the more relevant and interesting development is the 17 yo (Nick Price?) who is a promising rugby and Aussie Rules junior but has chosen Aussie Rules due to GC 17. It is a demonstration that Aussie Rules is more advanced in NSW and QLD than the rugbies in Vic, WA,SA,etc. Eventually we will see some Aussie Rules juniors in heartland states choose rugby if their body type and/or game preference is rugby .
Redb
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:52pm | Report comment
Redb -
exactly right, and we’d hope they bring a bit of a ‘AFL’ flavour to the Rugby codes………a bit like that great early Aust Football talent Dally Messenger upon his return to Sydney after a couple of years in South Melbourne…….
The Link said | October 16th 2008 @ 3:59pm | Report comment
RedB, Junior touch is a major sport, particularly in NSW/QLD. There’s National and State champs every year. Victoria combine with SA and Tassie as the Crusaders in the National champs.
Better hope Andrew Demeitrieu doesn’t share the same naivety in assessing sport in NSW and QLD, particularly in assessing AusKick numbers.
Bruce Walkley said | October 16th 2008 @ 5:23pm | Report comment
Link, it’s interesting to see touch footy has such a toehold in Albert Park, which means that general area has sports participation alive and well from the cradle almost to the grave - I believe the Trugo green in South Melbourne, just along the street from where I once lived, is still going strong?
Pippinu said | October 16th 2008 @ 7:03pm | Report comment
Bruce
anyone who lives further than 10 km from the Melbourne docks ain’t gonna know what you mean when you mention Trugo!
Redb said | October 16th 2008 @ 7:45pm | Report comment
Link,
Right back at ya. You better hope David Gallop does not share your vision for touch footy’s pathway to RL in Vic.
Redb
Jason Cave said | October 16th 2008 @ 8:15pm | Report comment
It’ll be interesting to see what Channel Nine does re TV sports rights. Seeing that Nine is now owned by a foreign privete equity interest, that’ll mean that Nine might not go out hard to get the TV rights for big sports like they once used to under the late Kerry Packer, who forked out millions of dollars for the US Major golf tournaments, Wimbledon, Formula 1 TV rights. In fact be prepared to see Nine staying out of the AFL TV rights, because the network is about to undergo possibly the biggest shake-up in its history-and it could happen sooner rather than later.
Redb said | October 16th 2008 @ 8:46pm | Report comment
Jason,
Could be right about Ch 9, they could even disappear altogether and a new entrant appears. If they survive, private equity does not mean conservative either.
Redb
Michael C said | October 16th 2008 @ 9:30pm | Report comment
Trugo -
was that the game based on the inside of a rail carriage?
Woody Warambel said | October 20th 2008 @ 7:43pm | Report comment
Michael I very much doubt your AFL participation numbers in Queensland.
In the Brisbane region(about 2.5 million) they say they have only 6,000 juniors:
http://www.sportingpulse.com/assoc_page.cgi?client=1-4711-0-0-0&sID=56053&news_task=DETAIL&articleID=4878656§ionID=56053
The AFL have by a long long way the smallest participation of any of the football codes in Queensland.
Woody Warambel said | October 20th 2008 @ 8:13pm | Report comment
Millster where is your evidence that RL fans are from a lower socio -economic strata than AFL fans?
Here’s an extract from a survey that suggests otherwise:
Torque Reports (released 2004):
.”..It found league was over-represented in the $100,001 to $150,000 household income bracket compared to the general population, but under-represented in the less than $30,000 band. Of those that nominated league as their preferred sport, 13.4 per cent of league’s supporter base fell in between $100,000 and $150,000, while 22.36 per cent earned less than $30,000. League only just fell short of toppling rugby union in the $100,000 to $150,000 category, with 13.68 per cent of those identifying themselves as union fans falling in that band.
The AFL could find only 9.25 per cent in that category to be the poor relation of both. Torque managing partner Sean Cooper says the figures contradict conventional wisdom that league almost exclusively a blue-collar sport. “The image of the game is not reflected by its fan base,” Cooper says. “But it is surprising that rugby league is as mid-market as it is.” It also raises the question of whether the rugby league has been marketing itself to the right audience.
Of the 73 respondents in the $150,000 to $200,000 category, 2.4 per cent identified as rugby league fans, 3.36 per cent were union and 2.83 per cent AFL. Beyond $200,000, the split of the 38 sport fans was 1.2 per cent league, 2.69 per cent union and 1.1 per cent AFL.
Torque also found that rugby league had more than its fair share of fans classified as senior government or business manager or executive. While it was doing well in the professional ranks, it missed out with farmers who make up less than 1 per cent of its fan base. “
Woody Warambel said | October 20th 2008 @ 8:17pm | Report comment
More from the Torque Report:
‘”WHAT is the richest sport in Australia as measured by fan base? Rugby union is likely to be the first sport to jump to mind - all those tweed jackets, leather elbow patches, Range Rovers and merchant bankers would seemingly guarantee the No.1 spot.
But a new survey by data marketing group, [COLOR=#000000]Torque, has found while union certainly has more seriously rich fans, rugby league is Australia’s richest sport.
This is partly because it has more fans in the nation’s most populous and expensive state, but it’s still good news for a code widely regarded as the sport of the working class.
Torque says rugby league is the richest sport in “terms of the total affluence of its supporter base” - just beating the Australian Football League.
Part of the reason for this is that average incomes in rugby league strongholds NSW and Queensland are higher than in southern AFL states such as Victoria and South Australia.
… It also raises the question of whether rugby league has been marketing itself to the right audience.
… The image of the game is not reflected by its fan base,” Cooper says. “But it is surprising that rugby league is as mid-market as it is.”
…rugby league has more than its fair share of executive, professional & managerial supporters the survey found. “
Redb said | October 20th 2008 @ 9:08pm | Report comment
Can we have a link to this torque report. Some of the comments are contentious.
Who funded the report?
Redb
Midfielder said | October 20th 2008 @ 9:25pm | Report comment
Woody
Interesting comments and quotes ……… was this an Australia wide survey.
Woody Warambel said | October 21st 2008 @ 11:11am | Report comment
Guys
The link to the Torque Report report disappeared soon after it was printed. It appeared in the Australian in March or April 2004 (I think) & as I recall it was in a the Advertising or Media Supplement Section.
Don’t know who funded it but by its nature it would have to be Australia-wide.
Michael C said | October 21st 2008 @ 12:02pm | Report comment
Woody Warambel -
the figures stated have zero to do with juniors directly.
It’s Australian Sports commission survey results (so, extrapolated statistical data with appropriate levels of statistical reasoning and ‘correction’). The surveys are done annually, for over 15 year olds - and generally based on a sample size of over 17,000.
It gives a nice break down on age groupings, organised vs ‘un organised’ participation.
It PROBABLY includes certain ’support’ roles as ‘participation’ - such as umpiring coaching - - I would presume.
Things that DO become obvious include -
soccer wins out over the age of 35 and also is more likely to be ‘un organised’ activity.
But - look - it’s their data, their rationale - - it does however give a cute year on year reference and is a bit better than some of the annectdotal stuff people present on here.
It also, steps away from code specific posturing about just what they do and don’t count in their own figures. Always seems that there is NO capacity to compare apples with apples relying on code/competition specific data comparisons.
NAB quoted the 28,000 QLD pariticpants - - they are quite separate to juniors at clubs.
regarding adults etc playing/participating - - I’ve no idea really.