The dominant image of the official ceremony for the 2011 Rugby World Cup draw was a photo of a confident Richie McCaw, who is robed in a cloak of a Maori chief, striding into New Zealand’s Giant Rugby Ball facility in the heart of London, with a clocked Maori female dignitary on one side and a bald, stocky Jock Hobbes, wearing his NZRU tie, beside him.
Behind this leading group is the winning captain of the 2007 RWC tournament in France, John Smit, in his Springboks blazer, Stirling Mortlock, relaxed with his hand in his pocket and wearing the bemused look of someone who has gone through all this ritual before, and several other national captains.
After the chairman of the IRB Bernard Lapasset drew out the list of countries for the draw, a IRB media release was issued to newspapers and rugby journalists around the world in three languages, English, French and Spanish.
The ‘story’ in the media release was that South Africa was in “arguably the toughest pool,” where they play Fiji “who nearly derailed their charge to the title in 2007” and the 2008 Six Nations champions Wales.
The tournament hosts, the media release stated. “will be looking to avenge their RWC 2007 quarter final exit at the hands of France” with the two sides meeting in Pool A, while England “meet long time rivals Scotland” for the first time in the pool stages play and Australia, RWC champions in 1991 and 1999, face three European teams in Pool C, headed by Ireland and Italy.
The Australian media immediately made the claim that “the Wallabies have received the best draw imaginable.”
If results go according to plan (a big ‘if’ given the upsets in the 2007 RWC), the Wallabies will not run into the world champion Springboks or the top-ranked All Blacks until the final.
Wales should be their quarter-final opponents, Argentina or France in the semi-final, and then either South Africa or New Zealand in the final.
Ireland’s coach Declan Kidney expressed relief that his team had avoided “the kiss of death pool” which sank their hopes in the 2007 RWC. Brian O’Driscoll, Ireland’s captain, warned that Georgia and Romania would come hard at Ireland: “It’s hard to play against any side in a World Cup. I learnt that in 2007. No team makes up the numbers. They come to win.”
The Australian commentary also made the point that South Africa and New Zealand won’t be happy with their draw as they face the prospect of a semi-final against each other, and pool matches against France for New Zealand and Wales for South Africa.
This analysis is flawed.
With France being a bogey team for the All Blacks in the 1999 and 2007 RWC tournaments (and France in 1987), New Zealand would be happy to play Les Bleus in a pool round where the result isn’t a matter of staying in the tournament or not.
As Richie McCaw noted: “I quess there will be a bit of talk about the history between New Zealand and France at World Cups … Quarter finals are tough, as we found in 2007. Anything can happen in the play-off stages.”
Similarly, the Springboks are happy to play Wales in a pool round rather than in the knock-out finals stage of the tournament. John Smit, in fact, made the point that the tough pool the Springboks were in (with Fiji and Samoa as a two other difficult opponents) was “ideal preparation to battle harden the team” for the later stages of the tournament, if they progressed through.
This is what happened, Smit insisted, in the 2007 RWC.
Warren Gatland, the coach of Wales, endorsed Smit’s call on Pool D being “the toughest pool,” which he welcomed. “It is a great draw,” he said. “Look at the World Cup in 2007 – the winner came from the toughest pool.”
Frank Hadden, Scotland’s coach, was adamant that his team had been given “every chance” of reaching the finals after being paired with Argentina and England. He was relieved not to be facing one of the Tri-Nations teams.
England, too, were relieved that their poor run of form was not marked by having to play one of the Tri-Nations sides. The English media interpreted the draw as “much needed positive news after a difficult autumn.”
To my mind, most of this ‘analysis,’ which I’ve indulged in quite enthusiastically in past tournaments, is an exercise in trying to do the impossible and accurately predict the future.
There are four distinct phases to a Rugby World Cup tournament.
The first phase is the Phony War period when the draw is announced and the tournament is yet to start.
This phase is marked by enjoyable but ultimately meaningless chatter about “pools of death” and likely outcomes in the various pool matches. As not a kick has been fired in anger yet, and we have no real idea how precise the preparation of each side has been, the chatter is based on speculation rather than any reality.
No one had any idea, for instance, in the 2007 RWC that Ireland had botched their preparation for the tournament and never really looked like being contenders for anything, despite the fact that the team was highly-rated.
The second phase involves the pool rounds, which for the strong teams amounts to the Opening Skirmishes of the World Cup battle.
Because teams can drop games in the pool round and survive, not too much pressure is placed on the strong sides and the outcomes of their matches. The news they convey to the other teams can be deceptive.
In 1993, for instance, England lost the opening match of the RWC tournament to New Zealand but went through to the Final where they gave Australia a tough game.
In 2007, France lost the opening game of the tournament to Argentina and went on to put New Zealand out of the tournament in the Quarter-Final.
France lost to England in the Semi-Final of the 2007 RWC, despite the fact that England had been thrashed by South Africa in a pool round match.
The Quarter-Finals and the Semi-Finals resemble the Set Piece Battles before the final push.
The Final is the Decisive Battle to establish the winner of the tournament, which is not the same as being the best team in the tournament.
In my view, the Set Piece Battles phase and Decisive Battle final phase are where the RWC contest becomes the real thing. And we are not going to find out the outcomes of these phases until they happen.
But we can be certain of one thing: the outcome will be different from what the conventional wisdom leading up to the 2011 RWC says will happen.
In other words, there is a big difference between the RWC mind games and real games played out in the finals.
Vive la difference!
adam
Guest
there was a world cup in 93 ? In 1993, for instance, England lost the opening match of the RWC tournament to New Zealand but went through to the Final where they gave Australia a tough game.
captain nemo
Roar Guru
current rankings 1(1) SOUTH AFRICA 90.98 2(2) NEW ZEALAND 89.42 3(3) AUSTRALIA 86.06 4(4) IRELAND 83.27 5(5) FRANCE 81.48 6(6) ARGENTINA 81.29 7(7) ENGLAND 81.23 8(8) WALES 80.74 9(9) FIJI 76.52 10(10) SCOTLAND 75.23
bob heron
Guest
ranking before RWC 2007: 1 NEW ZEALAND 94.59 2 FRANCE 85.87 3 AUSTRALIA 85.50 4 SOUTH AFRICA 84.69 5 IRELAND 84.67 6 ARGENTINA 79.07 7 ENGLAND 78.61 8 WALES 76.87 9 SCOTLAND 76.73 10 SAMOA 73.72 and as you can see they were no use whatsoever in predicting the result. Clearly it was a slow news day and you just had to post something Spiros.
Derm
Roar Guru
The subs for Ulster were: 19. Kieron Dawson 67' 17. Tom Court 52' 21. Niall O'Connor 72' 18. Matt McCullough 69' 20. Isaac Boss 52' 22. Mark McCrea 69' Maybe you are referring to Tom Court who replaced Fitzpatrick at No 1. He plays for Ulster as a tighthead and loosehead prop. Court was born in Brisbane, Australia and began his sporting career as a shotputte]. He was Australian University Champion for three years running and had Olympic trials in 2002. He started playing rugby in 2004 and has represented Manawatu and Queensland Reds as well as Ulster. He represented Ireland A in 2006 Churchill Cup before he had played his first game for Ulster. He qualifies to play international rugby for Ireland through his grandfather, who was born in County Limerick. He was also played as sub in the 2008 Churchill Cup squad. He made his full Ireland debut in an uncapped match against The Barbarians at Kingsholm Stadium in Gloucester.
jools-usa
Guest
Hey Stillmissit, Sheek, bloggers, et al. Saw some of the Ulster vs Scarlets yesterday & Ulster brought on a large OZ prop, but I forget his name. He's about 20 & commentator said Wallabies should look at him. Any clue who he is & why he's in Europe? Thanks Jools-USA
Homer
Guest
Is there any footage of TPN's tackle on Collins that anyone know's about?
Who Needs Melon
Guest
I got to watch the first 8 minutes and then my recorder crapped out. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
pothale
Guest
Interesting article. however, if you look at the outcomes of the last few world cups, there have been very few surprises at the pool stages. The Ireland V Argentina battle has been one battle, but very few others. Knockout stages have had more surprises. Based on this draw, I would see most going according to the draw in who will go forward. NZ and France from Group 1; SA and Wales from Group 2; Ireland and Australia from Group 3; and England/Argentina from Group 4. Who gets first and second is more open to debate. I'd reckon NZ will want to get off to a cracking start and if France is their first match, they should win it. Unless SA go downhill before 2011, they should win out over Wales. Ireland and Australia is more difficult to call - their last WC matches have been settled by a point. Ireland could beat them. For England and Argentina the result may get decided by their results against Scotland, rather than each other. Anyway, it's three years off. Lots to play for, and seedings to be changed. And they will.
mcxd
Guest
strangely i never thought id say this but Sheehan had a cracker of a game then early in the second half burgess came on did three or more absolutely useless kicks that went no where but up and down and on one lost ground ? what on earth was he thinking ? i know i was thinking of putting Sheehan straight back on. He really played with agression and some smart rugby. In fact the whole Asutralian team played with aggression the whole game. Where was this during the year ? It was absolutely fantastic. Lote was in there belting people (legally) and doing all the right things..McCaw got belted by Chisholm..who would have thought ? In fact if you had to compare McCaw with Smith, Smith without a doubt got the better of McCaw on the night. AAC played brilliantly at inside -c attack and in defence, shame he wasnt given that opportunity early in the year. No aimless kicks from him last night. It was a shame about the uncontested scrums. Probably my fav Wallaby game of the year and considering it was full of young guys as the englsih commentators said it really holds well for Aus rugby future. ..but before i get ahead of myself, one game doesnt make a season.
bennalong
Guest
Don't like being a spoiler but apart from the need to celebrate the breadth of Rugby around the world, I think the World Cup has created a political problem for coaches that has impacted negatively on the game. I admit I cack myself looking at the AB record, but I think looking at the AB record shows what a festival occasion it is. Not the real deal and to be treated lightly. Failure certainly shouldn't ruin careers. Give me a return to three test series anytime. More drama and tension per game and a better measure of two teams than any WC one off. The game this morning was a cracker and showed the sort of game from the Wallabies you'd have seen against Wales with a less suppressive referee performance. Sure the kicking was excessive and frequently erratic but the commitment was relentless and total from the entire team. FULL-ON Did we miss Gits? I don't think so. This sort of game plan allowed Quade Cooper to replace him effectively. It also made me appreciate Cooper's ability and add him to Beale and Barnes as better candidates for 10. Adam A-C showed what a fantastic talent he is when not asked to kick all the time, and Drew Mitchell took up where he left off against Wales with some beautiful, beautiful lines and steps, ball in hand. YYYYAAAYYY!!! Lote too showed he's still got passion. Maybe Robbie can convince him to watch Drew and run not 'at' but 'by' opposing players without taking his foot off the gas. He doesn't realise how big he is! George was great. Is he bionic? ............................Roll on 2009. ...........MERRY CHRISTMAS Mr. DEANS!
mick
Guest
thanks Jonny, you've saved me from being dissapointed and educated me at the same time. Fine commemoration to wear Cornwell County socks. I love that sort of stuff.
JonnyP
Guest
Mick, I think they were all wearing the socks of Cornwall County to commemorate the Australia v Cornwall match in the Olympics(1908 I think)
mick
Guest
Just had a look at the you tube clip. Was it just the poor picture or did the Baa Baa's all play with the same socks. I thought the players traditionally played in their local club socks. I remember as a young bloke watching a baa baa game with my dad on tv and seing Steve Cutler wearing his Gordon socks. The very socks I wore on Saturdays. I was a proud little Gordon boy that day. I couldn't believe my humble club socks could make it all the way to England. I have loved the tradition ever since. I didn't see the game this morning so I'm not sure what they were wearing. Am I right in thinking that this has been lost from the Baa Baa's? If so I'm a bit dissapointed.
James Mortimer
Guest
Those looking for a precious few minutes of Baa's baa's game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MZEzR_93ZA
B Johnson
Guest
The Final is the Decisive Battle to establish the winner of the tournament, which is not the same as being the best team in the tournament. Spiro, nice article but that comment puzzles me. Who would you rate as a better team in the last World Cup that England and South Africa. Surely not NZ, Australia or France as they all lost?
Tarpo
Guest
O'Connor has played most of his rugby at 10. Wouldn't mind seeing him have run there for the Force with Gits out one to 12.
stillmissit
Guest
Amateur Hour - Great idea pity it didnt come up as a topic PRIOR to this game starting and maybe it could have been argued for in the media. Who Needs Melon - O'Connor went amazingly well at full back when you consider what was involved in that game and his age. Maybe he could make it there as he has a good kick on him and runs and steps well as we already knew. Putting him at centre, as you say, puts him up against too much competition and we are short of full backs. This kid could do anything. Worlds Biggest - Yes it was an absolute treat to watch the back row battles that went on, it was a game within a game. Collins doesnt seem to be missing much in impact or speed. Pity my dvd recorder is on the blink and I dont have a copy of the game. Would love to watch it again. Certainly NOT a classic BABA's game more of a test match. The most enjoyable game (from an Aussie point of view) this year. Bring on the future guys it looks pretty rosy at the moment.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
stillmissit, that Pocock cover tackle was a cracker, he then got up and made the next tackle, just a classy play. Burger was the best forward for the Baa Baa's, he was everywhere and a handful to bring down every time. To see Burger, McCaw and Smith all on the paddock in the same game was a treat we probably wont see again. The 3 best open sides of this decade, just awesome. Then to see the future heir to Smith's throne in Pocock was icing on the cake. The commentators gave Smith the MOM but AAC or Burger could have won it. O'Connor is slight but is only 18 and will beef up ove the years, he looks good.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
It's worth noting that the Welsh rugby union are busy organising extra Test fixtures against the SH sides for the next two years. They're taking this seriously.
Greg Russell
Guest
I agree with most that Spiro writes, especially the point that a likely QF against Wales may be a difficult assignment for the Wallabies if the current Welsh upturn continues. Then again, how often do Wales play well in the southern hemisphere? One point Spiro neglects to make is that the RWC has never been won by a team that has lost in pool play. Thus while pool matches are not elimination matches, one might argue that de facto they are. It will be interesting to see if there is any media hype over this point in the buildup to the NZ-France pool clash in 2011, which is likely to be the tournament's opening match.