Australia in dream Rugby World Cup draw
By Darren Walton, 2 Dec 2008 Darren Walton is a Roar Pro
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The Wallabies have received the best draw imaginable for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. If results go according to seedings during the pool stages of the tournament, the Wallabies cannot run into the defending champion Springboks or the top-ranked All Blacks until the final.
In addition to landing on the opposite side of the draw as their two Tri Nations rivals, Australia have also been grouped in a relatively easy pool alongside Ireland, Italy and two qualifying teams from Europe and America.
Currently ranked eighth in the world, Ireland are the lowest-placed side from the so-called band two nations that the third-ranked Australians could have been pitted against in the pool stages.
If results go according to the seedings during the round-robin phase of play, the Wallabies will meet Wales in the quarter-finals.
Should they win that match, they would qualify for a semi-final against either Argentina or France, with South Africa or New Zealand likely to be awaiting the Wallabies in the final.
New Zealand and South Africa would not be so pleased with their draws.
Apart from having the more difficult prospective semi-final, the All Blacks have been grouped alongside France, who eliminated them from last year’s tournament, while the Springboks are in the same pool as reigning Six Nations champions Wales.
© AAP 2012WORLD CUP DRAW
Pool A: New Zealand, France, Tonga, Americas 1, Asia 1
Pool B: Argentina, England, Scotland, Europe 1, playoff winner
Pool C: Australia, Ireland, Italy, Europe 2, Americas 2
Pool D: South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Oceania 1, Africa 1Quarter-final 1: Pool B winner v Pool A runner-up
Quarter-final 2: Pool C winner v Pool D runner-up
Quarter-final 3: Pool A winner v Pool B runner-up
Quarter-final 4: Pool D winner v Pool C runner-upSemi-final 1: Quarter-final 1 winner v Quarter-final 2 winner
Semi-final 2: quarter-final 3 winner v quarter-final 4 winnerFinal: Semi-final 1 winner v semi-final 2 winner
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Dublin Dave said | December 2nd 2008 @ 5:14am | Report comment
Bring ‘em on!!!!!
It’s ridiculous to make predictions about how teams will be two years from now as there is no guarantee that the current seedings will reflect the relative strengths in 2009. It could be that Australia will have a tough time of it.
In the qualifying round, Australia will have to play Ireland for the fifth time in a World Cup but for the first time on neutral territory. This is a side that has beaten Australia twice in the last six years and who have been known to give them a hard time in World Cups. Although Australia have won all four cup ties up to now, two of them (Dublin 91 and Melbourne 03) have been by the squeakiest margin possible: a single point. The other two, in Sydey in 87 and Dublin 99, Australia won quite easily.
Even assuming they win the group, Australia will most likely have to play either England or France. In World Cups, they have played France twice with one win and one loss. Against England, they have played three World Cup ties since their victory in the 1991 final (won thanks to a blatant deliberate knock on by Campese that should have been a penalty try, and would have been a sin binning if it had been invented back then) and have lost all of them, in the quarter finals of 1995 and 2007 and the final of 2003.
If they finish runner up in their group, they will most likely have to play South Africa but what are the chances of them finishing third? Given Ireland’s record against them a victory on neutral soil would not be an outlandish result and as for the Italians: well, they don’t have a lot of strength in depth, particularly in the backs but boy, can they scrummage!!!
Be afraid, Australia. Be very afraid!!!!!!!
Dublin Dave said | December 2nd 2008 @ 5:15am | Report comment
Sorry, that should have been 2011 in the second line
sheek said | December 2nd 2008 @ 6:42am | Report comment
This is daft. Selecting the pools 3 years out makes no sense to me at all. But then again, the RWC is named after a man who most likely never did what he was purported to do.
LeftArmSpinner said | December 2nd 2008 @ 6:50am | Report comment
Darren, While I agree with your method of predicting performances, and your analysis that Australia has an easy path, I disagree with your conclusion.
RWC’s are a unique tournament. They are won by teams that are able to string together wins and harden as the contest rolls on.
The Wallabies easy path will see them having not played enough hard rugby except for Wales in the Quarters. The only hope for hard rugby for Australia is if Wales continue to maintain and improve their current game. On current form, it will be a tough game and one to steel the winner, for the tougher games ahead.
Having said that, prior to the RWC 2011, Australia will benefit from being in the Tri-Nations tournament with the two best teams in the world and being at the end of their season rather than at the start like the NH.
On balance, I dont think we have been served well by the draw!
Mart said | December 2nd 2008 @ 6:51am | Report comment
Sheek – 100% agree. Why do that ? Utterly daft. By the time you get to 2011 a whole heap of stuff will have changed. Having said that this is the first time for a few RWCs that I’m actually excited by a RWC draw for the pool stages, some potentially great games there. The last RWC showed us the idiocy of trying to predict seeds progressing ‘as planned’ but I note most of the Aus media are suggesting this is a dream draw for Aus (relatively easy pool and no 3N oppo till final if all goes as expected, ha ha). I suspect Eng will be fairly pleased to have dodged a few bullets in their pool selection too (given who they could have faced) ? Should the Eng / Argy pooll game be played on the Falklands (only kiddin’ !) ? Pool D already looks a ripper !
Nick (KIA) said | December 2nd 2008 @ 7:35am | Report comment
LAS,
The needing hard games to win the thing is supported by the ABs performance last time (although that was partly their own making due to excessive rotation), but refuted by SA actually winning the thing – they had a soft pool, easy QF (Fiji) and relatively easy Semi (Argentina), and still had enough gas in the tank to win the final – although it should be noted that only one of the teams they had to beat (Arge) are ranked in top 4 a year later.
I think ABs will be fairly happy with their draw – they get their bogey team France in a non-sudden death situation, and then wouldn’t have to play them again unless they manage to win their way through to the final (assuming both sides made it that far – unlikely on prior form).
Agree is madness to be making the draw this far out. The excuse is needing to give NZ sufficient time to allocate bases and sort out who’s staying where etc – but you could do all this before the draw was made, IMHO. But it’s a (slight) improvement on the prior practice of using places teams finished last time. At least the pools look relatively even based on current form.
Mick of Newie said | December 2nd 2008 @ 7:45am | Report comment
Which group is “the group of death?”
I would like to see the odds on the top 2 seeds coming out of each group. Just goes to show how farciful this tournament is. It takes over a month of play to determine the top two teams in each group and in those groups of 10 games played at best 2 games will be genuine contests that might have a bearing on the outcome of the tournament.
Give the mungos their dues, at least they came up with a world cup format that recognised the disparity between the pros and the amateurs.
Millster said | December 2nd 2008 @ 8:38am | Report comment
France V All Blacks…. again.
With a huge smile on my face inspired by 1999 and 2007, I’ll be shouting “ALLEZ LES BLEUS” until I am hoarse.
Nick (KIA) said | December 2nd 2008 @ 8:40am | Report comment
Yes, but as I pointed out, won’t be sudden death this time. Suspect that brings the best out of the French.
stuff happens said | December 2nd 2008 @ 8:42am | Report comment
I agree with LAS, my observation of RWCs is that being in an ‘easy’ group is no benefit at all. If you hope to progress to the 1/4s and beyond you will have to beat some of the best teams – so good luck and get on with it!
The other factor of course is that at least one seeded team will underperform and at least one minnow will surprise us all – which is the beauty of the RWC.