The A League home and away series has offered something novel in each of its premiership races, and this season’s offerings is a cracker: a rejuvenated Queensland Roar pushing hard on the rails, a moody Melbourne Victory lacking in rhythm, and a over-worked Adelaide United with credibility at stake.
The fringes of the Superfecta is also a far from a safe bet. The Central Coast Mariners and the Wellington Phoenix are both in position to make up the fourth and also-rans spots.
So it will come down to this weekend, Round 21 of the 08/09 Season, to formalise the placings. And after last year’s debacle of not playing a simultaneous round (we had four teams all on equal points, if you recall) the FFA have yet again staggered the last round.
Dear, oh dear. Moving right along, then.
Let’s speculate …
Adelaide and Melbourne have the same footing on points (35), but Adelaide have a goal advantage in Goal Difference. This weekend both these teams play the teams vying for the fourth table position.
So there is just as much at stake for both sets of sides.
Will Adelaide’s Vidmar be happy to make the final two, and go easy on the Mariners in Gosford? Will Melbourne’s Merrick play conservatively and again rest the Costa Rican Carlos Hernandez, just so he has a fresh squad to go into the finals?
Can the Mariner’s McKinna turn his ship of fools around in time for Sunday’s game? Will the Phoenix want it too bad? With their easiest travel to Melbourne, I foresee that they have good odds to take it to the Victory.
The folly of this tactic, if employed, is that a draw for either of the current “top two” teams may not be enough for a final top two places. And with that, the favourable home final, or the two bites of the cherry that comes with it.
Let’s look at the roughie, Queensland Roar.
Queensland is sitting on 33 points (and with a Goal Difference only marginally off the pace), and is assured of some kind of finals football. They are within striking distance of a top two. Psychologically, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Further, the Roar are playing at home against a disheveled Perth Glory team that is only playing for pride and player contracts. Goals could flow.
It is possible that the Roar could leap frog Adelaide or Melbourne, if either merely holds a draw in their own corresponding games.
With Goal Difference being key, the Roar may even pip both of these front-runners, in a photo finish for Premiership.
The final four will be known by the time Adelaide and the Mariners finish the round on Sunday night. If the script goes to plan, then expect an already much decorated Adelaide United to party long into the wee hours of Australia Day.
Further, I expect Queensland to share top points with Adelaide and be chastened by too few goals. Phoenix will ruin Victory’s last weekend, they will just want it more. But, alas, it will be in vain, as the Phoenix and Mariners will duke it out on Goal Difference for fourth (Mariners to win that battle easily).
And Melbourne?
Perhaps they will have to do it the hard way against a bitter and vengeful Central Coast in the finals, with the Sailor boys drafting in a dark sith to replace their missing Jedi in Midfield.
My scenario keeps it interesting until the final whistle. If Melbourne draw with Wellington (or beat them) on Friday, then the final game in Gosford will be a bit too easy for Adelaide. What would the Mariners have to play for?
Already assured of finals football, it may be a dead rubber for the Mariners. There’s surely a lot at stake for Adelaide’s attempt to re-capture the Premier’s Plate, however.
I can see an unofficial and spontaneous away trip for some Victory faithful, sitting in Bluetongue chanting with the Mariners.
The speculation is intoxicating.
My final tip? Red’s, by a nose. And if I were a betting man, the quick money on the Roar.
The Bear
Guest
If Melbourne do the unthinkable and falter against the Phoenix, do you think Adelaide will fight for a win on Sunday, to take the Plate...? cos if your lads can't take the Sailor boys, then you shall likely be playing off against them to get to the Prelim finals. This weekend's game could be a real psychological gambit for the Reds.
dasilva
Guest
I think the fatigue is going to get Adelaide more then players leaving the team
The Bear
Guest
Das, Jet's won the league? They needed two bites of the cherry and a last minute handball that went unpunished, if memory serves me correct. Hardly reflective of a focused effort to wipe all and sundry before them. Between Travis Dodd's team cohesion concerns and Aurelio Vidmar's "we're on our knees" post game comments, you wonder if Adelaide are playing for the Toilet Seat, rather than the Prems Plate.
dasilva
Roar Guru
Sylvester Newcastle Jets won the league when they already knew they lost key players. I think Adelaide are professional enough for it not to affect them.
Sylvester
Guest
Reds are going down down down down http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,24937470-5000940,00.html
The Bear
Guest
However, beating Phoenix ensures that Adelaide have an easier time confronting a then indifferent and ambivalent Mariners. Adelaide should then be the ones to come home with the wet sail.
The Bear
Guest
Pip, you are favourites against the Phoenix, i will agree with you there. The Premiership is yours for the losing at present.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
Bear I'm not sure why the Victory are screwed. Another 3-0 win should see us on track for the double.
The Bear
Guest
Das, I am sure Aurelio is watching that game and analysing what the Poms did wrong. I won't expect him to make those sorts of mistakes... Central Coast will be not playing for merely pride, but for form. Just don't expect the Sailor boys to put you thru the wringer just for the sort of Pride that would befit a Croat at the Euros ;-) They might tho, if Melbourne can't finish the 'Nux off early in the round.
Koala Bear
Guest
YES WE CAN!!!! Dave, don't ever lose your sense of humour.. :lol: ~~~~~~~~~ KB
dasilva
Roar Guru
THe Bear I doubt the Mariners will just lay back and let Adelaide win even if they are ensured 4th spot. Sometimes having no pressure on your team can do wonders. Remember Croatia vs England during Euro qualifiers. Before the match people were saying they have nothing to play for. There was pictures release before the match of the team going shopping, relaxing and joking around as evidence that there not motivated to win. Croatia destroyed England that day. Mariners that are assured 4th spot with nothing to play for is still a dangerous team.
Towser
Guest
Qld profiting the most. Luv it.
The Bear
Guest
Except of course, that in the above scenario, Queensland profit the most. :-)
The Bear
Guest
Dave (and Pip et al) It's just interesting that you guys are screwed either way for the Plate. Lose to WP and you put immense pressure on Adelaide as you'd imagine that the Mariner's will tear them apart at Gosford. Win at the Dome and allow Adelaide to walk over the Mariners to take the plate. At least by winning against the Phoenix you can guarantee yourselves a place in the top two. That should be heartening.
Dave
Guest
Bear/Jimbo LOL Thanks for your support of MV...come to think of it we dont need anyone else's help we'll do it outselves...YES WE CAN!!!! ;)
The Bear
Guest
Dave if Melbs does beat Wellington (by less than three goals), you can kiss the Prem's plate goodbye, imo. Mariners will roll over, content that they have made it into fourth, and let Adelaide bugger them sideways.
jimbo
Guest
Dave, I didn't know they had a playoff for third place planned at the TD :)
Dave
Guest
Dont worry KB the final will be at TD and everyone is welcome to come :)
Koala Bear
Guest
Lads, if Roar finish second they play AU or Melb to see who holds the Final .. Yes ? So I believe the Roar will win and yes a final at Suncorp 55k sold out .. This will be an almost impossible task for a visiting team to over haul.. ... Ho no, Suncorp, the grave yard and the curse .. Does anybody know John Safron's home phone number..? :lol: ~~~~~~~~~~~ KB
Dave
Guest
Boys Boys Dont get ahead of yourselfs...after MV have dispatched WP by 2 goals on Friday the pressure is on for QR and AU. Hope the pressure doesnt get to them...okay hope it does but would like to see QR get 2nd. Now MV vs QR in the semis could be 40,000 at each leg!!