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The A League home and away series has offered something novel in each of its premiership races, and this season’s offerings is a cracker: a rejuvenated Queensland Roar pushing hard on the rails, a moody Melbourne Victory lacking in rhythm, and a over-worked Adelaide United with credibility at stake.
The fringes of the Superfecta is also a far from a safe bet. The Central Coast Mariners and the Wellington Phoenix are both in position to make up the fourth and also-rans spots.
So it will come down to this weekend, Round 21 of the 08/09 Season, to formalise the placings. And after last year’s debacle of not playing a simultaneous round (we had four teams all on equal points, if you recall) the FFA have yet again staggered the last round.
Dear, oh dear. Moving right along, then.
Let’s speculate …
Adelaide and Melbourne have the same footing on points (35), but Adelaide have a goal advantage in Goal Difference. This weekend both these teams play the teams vying for the fourth table position.
So there is just as much at stake for both sets of sides.
Will Adelaide’s Vidmar be happy to make the final two, and go easy on the Mariners in Gosford? Will Melbourne’s Merrick play conservatively and again rest the Costa Rican Carlos Hernandez, just so he has a fresh squad to go into the finals?
Can the Mariner’s McKinna turn his ship of fools around in time for Sunday’s game? Will the Phoenix want it too bad? With their easiest travel to Melbourne, I foresee that they have good odds to take it to the Victory.
The folly of this tactic, if employed, is that a draw for either of the current “top two” teams may not be enough for a final top two places. And with that, the favourable home final, or the two bites of the cherry that comes with it.
Let’s look at the roughie, Queensland Roar.
Queensland is sitting on 33 points (and with a Goal Difference only marginally off the pace), and is assured of some kind of finals football. They are within striking distance of a top two. Psychologically, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Further, the Roar are playing at home against a disheveled Perth Glory team that is only playing for pride and player contracts. Goals could flow.
It is possible that the Roar could leap frog Adelaide or Melbourne, if either merely holds a draw in their own corresponding games.
With Goal Difference being key, the Roar may even pip both of these front-runners, in a photo finish for Premiership.
The final four will be known by the time Adelaide and the Mariners finish the round on Sunday night. If the script goes to plan, then expect an already much decorated Adelaide United to party long into the wee hours of Australia Day.
Further, I expect Queensland to share top points with Adelaide and be chastened by too few goals. Phoenix will ruin Victory’s last weekend, they will just want it more. But, alas, it will be in vain, as the Phoenix and Mariners will duke it out on Goal Difference for fourth (Mariners to win that battle easily).
And Melbourne?
Perhaps they will have to do it the hard way against a bitter and vengeful Central Coast in the finals, with the Sailor boys drafting in a dark sith to replace their missing Jedi in Midfield.
My scenario keeps it interesting until the final whistle. If Melbourne draw with Wellington (or beat them) on Friday, then the final game in Gosford will be a bit too easy for Adelaide. What would the Mariners have to play for?
Already assured of finals football, it may be a dead rubber for the Mariners. There’s surely a lot at stake for Adelaide’s attempt to re-capture the Premier’s Plate, however.
I can see an unofficial and spontaneous away trip for some Victory faithful, sitting in Bluetongue chanting with the Mariners.
The speculation is intoxicating.
My final tip? Red’s, by a nose. And if I were a betting man, the quick money on the Roar.
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