Geelong Cats’ premiership hopes are on a knife-edge after yet another loss this weekend. And while it would be wrong to write them off just yet, they seem to be only hanging in there by a thread.
The Cats’ latest loss, a 14-point defeat by the fourth-placed Western Bulldogs, means Geelong have lost four of their last eight matches.
And while they are assured of a second place finish on the AFL ladder, question marks remain about how far they can go in September.
I eagerly took in the Cats-Bulldogs clash on Friday evening, undecided about Geelong but interested to see where they were at.
But after the first half of footy, that perception had changed.
The Bulldogs were the better side in the opening half and deservedly took a 19-point lead into the long break. It could have been more for the Bulldogs too, having had almost double Geelong’s scoring shots, with 19 to 10.
Where Geelong was being beaten was getting numbers to the ball. And essentially getting first use of the footy and winning loose ball contests.
The Cats have been a dominant side for the last few years and their players have without doubt got used to winning loose ball contests.
But when that stops happening, suddenly the players who’ve run on for the next kick, find themselves out of position and without an opponent. If possession changes, that’s a big problem.
On Channel 7’s coverage of the game, Geelong coach Mark Thompson admitted in an interview just prior to the third quarter bounce down that winning these contests would be the focus for the rest of the game.
And indeed, Geelong mounted a big eye-opening fightback in the third quarter, kicking six goals to three, to take a three-point lead into the final term.
But after all that effort, the Cats couldn’t sustain it and the Bulldogs did enough to get on top again and win the game in the fourth quarter.
Winning the loose ball contests though, is a crucial point and you’ve got to wonder about Geelong’s fluctuation in this department.
A decent argument is injuries to key players means Geelong are fielding teams with some players who aren’t up to the level to win these contests consistently.
But guns like Jimmy Bartel, Gary Ablett, Max Rooke and Joel Selwood are still out there on the park fighting hard for the footy.
Perhaps a better point is after a couple of years being at the top the Geelong players are beginning to feel the pinch physically.
It’s no coincidence injuries have crept into the Cats team this season after long and intense campaigns in 2007 and 2008.
Key pair Paul Chapman and Jimmy Bartel are the obvious examples of players struggling with niggles and fitness, yet they are still being put on the park, despite not being one hundred percent fit.
And it is a problem the West Coast Eagles unsuccessfully dealt with in 2007 (remember a barely half-fit Chris Judd), going out of that finals series with successive losses, after competing in the previous two Grand Finals.
Cats fans may take comfort and optimism in the fact they’ve got a long list of players who could potentially soon return from injury to bolster their side such as Steve Johnson, Tom Harley and James Kelly.
But they shouldn’t be under the illusion that their injury list will magically disappear. The players have played a lot of footy in the last few years and it’s clearly taking it’s toll.
Friday’s match was a clear example of those physical problems (as it’s not just those on the injury list), with the Cats unable to sustain an effort on being first to the footy. The Bulldogs, fresher and with more at stake, beat them in that department.
But Geelong’s third quarter performance is where they can take some joy. When the Cats made a concerted and focused effort to win the footy, they got on top. But it’s about whether they can sustain that, so some more fresh bodies would aid that.
Chapman, who spent most of Friday’s game on the bench after experiencing hamstring tightness, is a key at winning these contests and his fitness will undoubtedly be crucial for the Cats going forward.
They are clearly struggling, but like a champion should, they are hanging in there.
Redb
Guest
Sounds about right. Really like that stat especially as Collingwood is included. Redb
Hoff in Beijing
Guest
Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last 50 years, the flag has been won by these (top) four sides a combined four times. Long time between drinks for the clubs but good for all football fans.
Redb
Guest
very true, we now have 3 flag favourites with St Kilda, Geelong and ahh fark it Collingwood. Actually the Bullies have impressed of late, big game this week against the Pies which will tell us a few things. Redb
davelee
Guest
i thought the cats were gone until the saints lost their last two. throws it wide open.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Good comments all round. The form of Mooney and Hawkins is something to keep an eye on. The tall forwards were a massive concern earlier in the year, but if those two keep playing like they have the last two weeks, then they certainly have picked a good time to get their act together! (How Hawkins will go in a finals envirnoment remains to be seen, however). The same can be said for Ablett and the rest of the midfield. They've impressed in the past two weeks, and if that trend continues then they've timed it pretty right, too. They've been keen to ensure "injured" players are rested up in time for finals -- Chappy supposedly had clearance from the doctors to play the second half, for example, but the coaches box didn't want to risk him. If Ottens (43 hitouts in the VFL on the weekend), Stevie J, Harley and Kelly return this week, all of the sudden there's very few players left on the sidelines that are worthy of a spot. Things aren't as bad as some people think, and the club aren't as fussed with losing late season games as they were, say, last year. But absolutely, they've got a lot of work ahead of them.
The 1 and Only Master
Guest
Cats are definitely feeling the pinch physically. They like St kilda must be doing what the Dogs did a couple of weeks back and tapering their training. They both will be hot to trot over the next couple of weeks. Geelongs tall forwards, Mooney and Hawkins are playing well. Byrnes and Stokes are ordinary. Really spluttering out of the back half as well. But 1 thing about the cats is that they have more hard nosed footballers than anyone else. When it's hot in he kitchen you can expect to see Ling, Bartel, Ablett Selwood, Corey Chapman and Mooney. Can you guarantee you will see Del Santo and Montagna. Cooney and Griffen or even Pendalbery and Thomas. I dont know
Redb
Guest
Ben, Somewhat of a Cat's watcher due to close proximity of being married to a Cats fan with a daughter who escaped my brainwashing and ended up being a huge Geelong fan. I saw the cracks back in mid July, they have opened up further since then. Note I left a catch-all that Ablett, Selwood and Bartel can still save Geelong, but geez without Stevie J they will struggle to kick enough goals. Redb
Ben Somerford
Roar Guru
Perhaps Im sitting on the fence a bit, Redb, but Im not writing off the Cats just yet, unlike yourself (in fact it seems you're a brave man as you did so in mid-July!).
Redb
Roar Guru
http://www.theroar.com.au/2009/07/15/geelong-2009-mountain-cats-or-moggies/ 15 July, 2009. Nuff said. Redb
Matthew Stephen
Guest
Well said. Very true. Contested ball and pressure over the entire match as seen in the third term is good enough to smash sides but the key is maintaining it for the whole match.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
What both St KIlda and Geelong have shown the last few weeks is that it's a real danger to sew up a top two spot and have players' minds wandeirng towards September. The Bullies were playing for a top four finish. Once the finals start proper, the focus will be back - but it's a fair enough point to make - has both St Kilda and Geelong lost some momentum the last few weeks going in - that will be noticeable in the first week of the finals?