If AFL didn't exist, would the Wallabies be number 1?

If AFL didn’t exist, would the Wallabies be number 1? This is the question I often ask after watching the Wallabies lose a Tri Nations match. This isn’t an attempt to denigrate AFL, I think we’re fortunate to have choice and our sporting culture is rich because of it.

However let’s suppose that during the 1850’s, Tom Wills saw Rugby as an ideal way to keep cricketers fit during the winter and the game gained a strong foothold throughout Victoria, SA, WA, Tasmania and NT.

In this ‘parallel universe’ it’s likely that after 1908 Rugby League would have gained more traction than Union because players were paid, but this is my ‘dream’ and I’m speculating that Rugby League remains niched in small areas as it has done in the UK and New Zealand.

The sport divide between Summer and Winter means that followers of the Australian cricket team are made up of AFL, NRL, Soccer and Rugby supporters, it’s a game that brings us all together.

Therefore the only true national sport is cricket. Can we draw parallels from this game? If Union is the only ‘footy’ code (soccer is a different beast), where would Australia sit in the pecking order of Southern Hemisphere Rugby? I’d surmise that we’d win the Tri Nations and Bledisloe Cup more often.

Over the last 20 years Australia has been the best International cricket team. Since the advent of professionalism in cricket in the 1970’s, it’s interesting to note which States produced the Australian cricketers to lay the foundation for this success.

From 1970 until today, there have been 164 cricketers represent Australia in all forms of the game. 49 players were born in NSW, WA 33, Victoria 31, Qld 22, SA 16, Tasmania 7 whilst the remaining 6 were born in the NT, ACT or overseas.

What is interesting that on a per capital basis WA is easily the most productive state. On this basis, it has produced over three times more Australian players than Victoria. One may argue, from a rugby development point of view, that it was a wise move to set up the Western Force (WA) Rugby franchise before the Victoria one.

If we all followed Rugby it would be our national sport. But being a national passion doesn’t guarantee success. Wales has a wonderful rugby history, it’s the sport of choice amongst its 2.9 million residents, but they are ranked 8th in the world.

If we all followed Rugby, there would be a lot more registered players, but this isn’t a barometer of potential success. There are 150,000 registered rugby players in NZ, but 700,000 in England. NZ is ranked 2nd, England is ranked 7th in the world.

So success is not directly attributed to the country’s obsession or the number of registered players, it’s about systems, structures and attracting the best athletes. Not any type of athlete, but the best athletes for Rugby.

I am sure there are brilliant rugby players in England who never played because they were soccer obsessed. Likewise, I am certain that there are AFL players loitering in suburban sides or reserve teams that will never make the big time. But Rugby may be a better option for their body size and skill sets, but they are yet to find the game.

If cricket and tennis were winter sports they would lose out in popularity to AFL. If this occurred, we may have never seen the spinning genius of Shane Warne as he would have languished in one of the minor St Kilda grades and we may have one less Wimbledon crown because Leyton Hewett was focused on making the Adelaide Crows team.

Therefore my “concern” with AFL is its dominance in specific states that may prevent future Wallabies coming to the fore. But this is not a fault of AFL, it shouldn’t be criticised for its success, rather it’s the fault of Rugby for not laying the foundations for these fringe AFL players to follow an alternative development channel.

This shouldn’t be a concern to AFL diehards. Rugby won’t knock AFL of its perch. We won’t take the Gary Ablett or ‘Buddy’ Franklin type players away from their destiny in AFL greatness; but we may unearth a John Eales type player and together we can all enjoy in the success of one of our national teams.

I am certain that Australia would have a much great win/loss ratio if Rugby was the only footy code, but it’s not and never will be. So rather than lamenting what could have been, let’s focus on what we can achieve. The goal therefore is to make the most of what we have.

I believe despite the doom and glow there is light for Rugby in Australia. The Western Force has triggered strong growth in Rugby numbers in Perth and this year several talented WA schoolboys were picked for the Australian Schools team. If the Victorian Super franchise bid is successful, hopefully we can replicate the grassroots success of WA in Victoria. In addition, Sevens Rugby’s admission to the Olympics will boost the profile of the sport in this country.

We need a National Rugby competition to develop talent. I have argued as such on this site; but it can’t be a tournament solely to grow the talent pool, it has to be financially successful and commercially sustainable. I am beginning to realise that this cannot be achieved now. We missed the boat back in 1996.

In addition I believe the meteoric rise in sponsorships and broadcaster revenue is in a boom cycle and in the not too distant future it will fall, bringing all codes back to earth. Therefore Rugby shouldn’t spread itself too thin with multiple competitions. It should focus on what it has and develop the pathways to find the best Rugby athletes, through a beefed up Club Rugby (a discussion for another post) and Super Rugby.

I don’t believe Rugby in these competitions competes against AFL. AFL competes with NRL and A-League at a national level for sponsorship and broadcast dollars. Rugby plays out at club and provincial/international level attracting a different level of sponsors with different target groups. Hopefully our AFL brethren can support us in our endeavours to develop Rugby and assist in making the WA and Victorian franchises successful.

If we do this, perhaps the Wallabies will become number 1 again.