Finally, round 19 has been completed. The round that began way back on December 16, included two games pre-Xmas and three in the last fortnight, with all matches midweek.
Now, with this round completed, we have a chance to look at the first 21 rounds of V5, compared with the four previous completed 21 round seasons.
For total attendance over 21 rounds – V3 (wins) with 1.22 million; V2 at 1.08 million; V3 at 1.02 million; V5 at 1.01 million; V1 at 921,019.
Obviously, V5 has included an extra match per round. Thus, for 21 extra matches, V5 match by match average is pretty sick by comparison even to V1.
For average match attendance over 21 rounds – V3 (wins) 14.6K; V2 12.9K; V3 12.1K, V1 10.9K; V5 9.6K.
The obvious point to argue for V5 to be given a fair go is that the run into the finals is only beginning.
The following are the final three round growth factor relative to the per match crowd average as at Round 18: V1 : +3%; V2 : +15%; V3 : + 24%; V4 : + 20%.
In fact, though, the rounds 18-21 of V5 have exhibited a 12% ‘growth’, which has continued to a lesser degree over the last three weeks (round 22-24) at a 1.7% growth rate.
There’s a little secret to these results over the last 6 rounds.
MVFC
MVFC have played four home matches amongst those six rounds. Thus far, MVFC has played 13 home matches. The MVFC ‘home’ rounds show a 15% higher than average attendance.
The 11 rounds without MVFC at home show a 18% lower than average attendance. This is a massive variance of 33%, so important is an MVFC home match.
In fact, Round 7 is the only round this season to top a 10,000 match average without MVFC playing at home. MVFC attendances account so far for 23.1% of overall attendances.
As it is, MVFC has just one home match to come, but, round 25 sees the almost traditional late season Brisbane vs SFC match, whilst SFC host MVFC in a round 27 ‘blockbuster’.
Even allowing for a best case of 25% increase over the last 3 rounds (the V3 benchmark), the average attendance for V5 will still lie sub 10,000 (at 9,934).
The overall attendance would be around 1,341,124. The worst case is V1, with a 3.1% increase, which would deliver 9,706 avg and around 1,310,392 aggregate.
What can the HAL deliver with only one MVFC home match to go?
Michael C
Roar Guru
And so 27 rounds done and dusted. The last 3 rounds saw an increase on previous rounds attendance average of just over 10%. This was in lower range based on previous best and worst case examples (in 21 round seasons of last 3 rounds from 25% to 3.1% improvements). Good or bad?? Certainly lower, as the season ending 3 round improvements below show: V1 +3.1% V2 +15.2% V3 +19.8% V4 +12.2% V5 +10.2% However - it's not the full story, as, the rolling average through season V5 illustrated an all time low after round 18 of a season average attendance to that point of 9481. From that time on - the last 3rd of the season (rnds 19-27) the avg attendance was up 9.7% (running at 10,400). It didn't rescue a sub 10K overall average though. Even a best case 25% improvement wasn't going to do that. Sub 9800 average attendance for the H&A season. And so - the season in thirds vs previous years: The previous 4 seasons of 21 rounds - saw Rnds 1-7 : 32.3% of crowds Rnds 8-14 : 31.5% of crowds Rnds 15-21 : 36.2% of crowds. For V5 Rnds 1-9 (first third) were proportionally up - at 35.1% Rnds 10-18 (mid third) were proportionally down at 29.5% Rnds 19-27 (last third) were just down at 35.4% The implication here is that the longer drawn out season was MOST impacted NOT during overlap with AFL/NRL finals - - but, in fact after that - during the middle phases of the season. The run home saw an increase, but, not huge. Is the season too long?? (not as a soccer league - but, as a domestic code in the Australian market place??) So, at the end of the season - for 51 extra matches, a 60% increase in matches - there wsa a 29% increase in attendance. However, year on year, the change in average match attendance is as follows: V2 +18% V3 + 12.9% V4 -16.7% V5 -19.6% with such large scale variability - it's anyones guess what the future holds for first an 11 and then 12 team A-League in the next couple of years. However - given that MVFC is still super crucial to well attended rounds - and MVFC, in an effectively season topping season following on from last years GF win - that MVFC has dropped a further 15% (from 24.5K to 20.7K), following drops of 6% in V4 and 19% (on Docklands attendances vs 8 V2 matches) in V3 after their GF success in V2. Given this result - along with Brisbane down 33% and SFC having to wait for a perfectly scripted Rnd 27 home match drawing 25K to manage to avoid a drop as well (ending with a 6% growth) even with finishing 'premiers' in the soccer parlance. It's all too easy to blame the 2 new QLD franchises for low crowds.
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
" there was no official or semi official story about Demetriou and paternity leave etc" Then why have you used it yourself as an excuse to explain the timing of his announcement and that the timing had nothing to do with the Socceroos WC draw and keeping them off the back pages?
Michael C
Guest
ItsCalledFootball - mate - have you noted my illustration that the AFL position, reiterated by Demetriou in early December - had already been stated and reported on Nov 20. It was first presented by Mike Fitzpatrick and Gillon McLachlan. Drew 47 comments on the H-S. For some reason, the story didn't erupt until 2 weeks later. No doubt you'll suggest that Demetriou controls the media and pulled the strings/pushed the buttons - - I'd suggest it's more that the national media wasn't ready to run with the story until the words were uttered by Demetriou, as, they'd been sitting on this bubbling story since at least mid October.
Axelv
Guest
Also, Russia is much larger than most distances within Oceania,e.g Vladivostok to St Petersburg. I found this on wikipedia for FC Luch-Energiya Vladivostok. "Situated in the far east of the country, their location poses a significant problem for away teams:9 hours by flight from Moscow. When playing FC Zenit Saint Petersburg at home, a trio of Zenit fans (Evgeny Stepanov, Aleksandr Zaraysky and Veronika Davidova) drove 15,000km across the country only for their car to break down when in Vladivostok, leaving them unable to drive home. These fans thus took the Trans-Siberian Railway back to Saint Petersburg, upon which the club rewarded them with a new car on October 1, 2006. In addition to this, Igor Akinfeev, the CSKA Moscow goalkeeper, said that "they should play in the Japanese League", after his team lost 4-0 after a seven hour flight."
Axelv
Guest
Using the compass on the Atlas, Perth to Wellington is indeed a longer distance than Perth to Noumea.
Gweeds
Guest
I always thought that a East Timor connection somewhere would be great as that nation with its Portuguese heritage is truly a football nation. However I think its economic situation will prevent it to be a player for some time to come.
Australian Football
Roar Guru
Maybe so, but it doesn't worry the Super Rugby boys
Michael C
Roar Guru
ICF - see following response to 'RealFootball', AFL position was stated Nov 20, by folk OTHER than Demetriou. Demetriou re-iterated the position when questioned come early December. For all Demetriou knew - the story was old news - 2 weeks old. I don't see how you can claim a sinister case of timing. What was over the top - was the 2 week delayed reaction. Why weren't soccer folk jumping up and down re the Nov 20 article? Is it perhaps some folk didn't understand that messers Fitzpatrick and McLachlan were speaking on behalf of the AFL organisation - just as Demetriou does. It's not a 'personal' thing - it's an organisational position.
Michael C
Roar Guru
What many seemed to forget - was what was already reported back in November 2008. Rival codes get behind 2018 Cup bid with stadiums deal. Including The most likely outcome in Melbourne is that the AFL will allow World Cup matches to be staged at the MCG and keep Telstra Dome for its home-and-away fixtures. How did it deteriorate? Firstly - the NRL got put offside in October 2009 after Michael Cockerill reported Rival codes face shutdown, including talk of nabbing training venues. This especially fired up the NRL crowd in October & November last year, GAllop described it as unworkable. The AFL still maintained in principle support. Note the timing of this article about 2 weeks before Demetriou's supposedly carefully timed comments. , Nov 20, - World Cup loses its cheer., With AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou absent after the birth of his son, AFL Commission chief Mike Fitzpatrick and chief operating officer Gillon McLachlan detailed the scenarios. If ICF below bothers to read this link - he'll actually note that the AFL were officially on the record with their concerns from Nov 20 onwards, during Demetriou's period of paternity leave. The media ran the story - but, no one kicked up a stink at that point. Why did the story not 'explode' for another 2 weeks? Demetriou wasn't letting any cat out of the bag - as far as he was concerned, he reiterated a position publicy stated 2 weeks earlier.
Michael C
Roar Guru
Not true?? Ben Buckley did not deny the presence of a costed ($130 million) plan to rectangularise the MCG and thus force the AFL off for a minimum of 16 wks. He simply tried to water it down by suggesting it wasn't something they planned to push ahead with. Now - given that in Oct 2008, when the media heralded "Rival codes support bid" back in October and November 2008, the AFL from that time forward spoke only of retaining Docklands. As soon as the FFA renegged on that - then all deals seemed null and void - how could the AFL trust the FFA on anything around the MCG? And how could the AFL take seriously anything from the FFA given the FFA still hadn't garnered an answer about whether FIFA would dictate the full exclusion of AFL and NRL. actually there was no official or semi official story about Demetriou and paternity leave etc - most people wouldn't have realised. In most cases - it seems - if people put the call in, then Demetriou would lend them his ear - as per Richo. Although, I couldn't say for certain that Demetriou had yet begun his period of paternity leave as of the day of birth, or, as of the day that mother and son returned home, or whether he'd been off from a couple of days before the birth. Who knows?
Michael C
Roar Guru
what? like Clive Palmer's predictions for his team?? book'em in now!!
Realfootball
Guest
Perth to New Caledonia might just break the record for the most time zones and the longest domestic league away trip in the world. Wellington/Dilli?
Australian Football
Roar Guru
Not forgetting the New Caledonian Ocean 11 FC expression of interest.. They have claimed they would attract 15-20k for home games at the very least.
Towser
Guest
Realfootball Looking at future possibilities outside Australia-East Timor? Have to get a lot more developed though, I would think. But as far as I know they luv Football already.
Realfootball
Guest
Absolutely. If common sense prevails, Oceania will be absorbed into Asia and we can have Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland. Don't disregard Auckland - 1 million people and a lot of Brit expats. Give them a decent, well run team and they will come. They already have one of the best boutique stadiums at North Harbour.
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/13/2741865.htm Demetriou did an interview for ABC radio the day after his son was born to publically grieve the retirement of Matthew Richardson.
Towser
Guest
Shows the potential of Christchurch to have an A-League team. Of course the All Whites getting to the World Cup helps in this respect.
Dogz R Barkn
Roar Guru
Amazing result. World Cup qualification is helping at least one club!
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
Nothing wrong with Demetriou protecting AFL, except that his comments are not true and not based on facts - they are designed to cause panic and fear. The FFA won't even play any WC games at the MCG or Etihad if its a problem - it won't mean the end of AFL in Melbourne for that year. Also the timing of his comments and sunsequent silence since then - it was the Monday after the FIFA WC draw was announced for the Socceroos and kept them off the back pages. Then the PR story that he was on Paternity leave and that's why he waited till then to make the comments - which again are false claims because Demetriou resumed public appearances the day after his son was born.
Gweeds
Guest
Almost 20,000 in Wellington for the Phoenix game. I thought that wasn't bad.