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Finally, round 19 has been completed. The round that began way back on December 16, included two games pre-Xmas and three in the last fortnight, with all matches midweek.
Now, with this round completed, we have a chance to look at the first 21 rounds of V5, compared with the four previous completed 21 round seasons.
For total attendance over 21 rounds – V3 (wins) with 1.22 million; V2 at 1.08 million; V3 at 1.02 million; V5 at 1.01 million; V1 at 921,019.
Obviously, V5 has included an extra match per round. Thus, for 21 extra matches, V5 match by match average is pretty sick by comparison even to V1.
For average match attendance over 21 rounds – V3 (wins) 14.6K; V2 12.9K; V3 12.1K, V1 10.9K; V5 9.6K.
The obvious point to argue for V5 to be given a fair go is that the run into the finals is only beginning.
The following are the final three round growth factor relative to the per match crowd average as at Round 18: V1 : +3%; V2 : +15%; V3 : + 24%; V4 : + 20%.
In fact, though, the rounds 18-21 of V5 have exhibited a 12% ‘growth’, which has continued to a lesser degree over the last three weeks (round 22-24) at a 1.7% growth rate.
There’s a little secret to these results over the last 6 rounds.
MVFC
MVFC have played four home matches amongst those six rounds. Thus far, MVFC has played 13 home matches. The MVFC ‘home’ rounds show a 15% higher than average attendance.
The 11 rounds without MVFC at home show a 18% lower than average attendance. This is a massive variance of 33%, so important is an MVFC home match.
In fact, Round 7 is the only round this season to top a 10,000 match average without MVFC playing at home. MVFC attendances account so far for 23.1% of overall attendances.
As it is, MVFC has just one home match to come, but, round 25 sees the almost traditional late season Brisbane vs SFC match, whilst SFC host MVFC in a round 27 ‘blockbuster’.
Even allowing for a best case of 25% increase over the last 3 rounds (the V3 benchmark), the average attendance for V5 will still lie sub 10,000 (at 9,934).
The overall attendance would be around 1,341,124. The worst case is V1, with a 3.1% increase, which would deliver 9,706 avg and around 1,310,392 aggregate.
What can the HAL deliver with only one MVFC home match to go?
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