Admittedly it’s only the pre-season, but any objective analysis raises some serious question marks over St.Kilda this year. They haven’t played well in any NAB Cup game.
They scraped home by a point in two matches they could easily have lost (and would have been beaten by the Swans if not for Seaby’s brain fade) and they were comprehensively beaten on Saturday night when they broke even for two quarters and were out-played in the other two.
More specifically, St.Kilda’s bottom six players were noticeably inferior to the Bulldogs bottom six, and there were at least four players who wouldn’t have gotten a game with the Bulldogs.
Last season the Saints were the pace setters, with an innovative and discliplined game-plan somewhat akin to a “full court press” in basketball. The strategy stifled opposition forward entries and put the opposition under pressure every time they did go inside 50.
This masked the flaws of several individual players in the St.Kilda defence (notably Zac Dawson, Jason Blake and Sam Gilbert) and covered for the fact that several St.Kilda players can’t hit a target consistently by foot (Clint Jones, Sam Gilbert, Jason Gram for example).
However, all clubs have had a full summer and pre-season to work out counter-strategies (play on at all costs, run and carry, quick precise kicking), so St.Kilda’s game-plan won’t be dominant this year.
And whenever a club cracks the code, they can take advantage of Saints’ deficiencies. Never was this more apparent than on Saturday night when the Bulldogs were able to get the ball quickly to Barry Hall, exposing Zac Dawson’s deficiencies against a power forward.
The Saints have five or six superstars and are a disciplined unit so they will probably have a good year in 2010. But history tells us that only nine of the last 20 grand finalists played in the Grand Final the year before.
Ben Somerford
Guest
Good read Simonjzw and I don't mind your point. But lets not forget it is only the pre-season and it is difficult to always be fully motivated 100% for these games. The Saints game-plan is quite demanding in terms of discipline and concentration and Ross Lyon noted that after the game. Here's some of his comments: “It comes from attitude and it certainly wasn't at a level that we would like, so I thought that we addressed that. And they were able to turn that around pretty quick in the second and third quarters, so it just showed it was above the shoulders. We've probably prided ourselves on that for a fair period now, not dishing up those quarters, so that was certainly disappointing. “I saw how we like to play in the second and third quarters. I thought our clearance work was solid but we really turned it over and their pressure was good and we slaughtered the ball, which is a result of their pressure. In the last quarter I was disappointed that we petered out, we certainly were in a mode that the game had gone. “I would have liked to see a sustained effort throughout the course of game and when we talk about what we need to work on, our persistence and perseverance is a hallmark of a very good team and that's what we're aiming to be."
Benj
Guest
Didn't St Kilda make the GF of the NAB Cup?
Huzz
Guest
A 70-point win in the semi final does not count as game St Kilda played well? We'll just focus on the ones that fit your article which included a 1 point win over a full-strength Collingwood with 9 players from the 2009 GF team not playing? The only game that fits is the Swans game, which was a weak. But you have to take these things into consideration. Also, what games are you watching? Blake and Gilbert have had good pre-seasons bar the NAB Final and both were fantastic last year. They are both walk-up starts. Only valid concern is Dawson, who is nowhere near his 2009 form. I agree, we probably won't have the season we had last year, but I can't see how this is objective when you've made so many errors in your article.
Andre Alexander
Guest
I must admit I didn't gave them much of a chance but last year the reports and analysis of the Nab Cup challenge games weren't as extensively published as this year. However this is a new year with enormous challenges for the Saints. I also don't like their mantra of playing Saints footy. Saints footy got us the most wooden spoons in the history of the game! They have gone away from their pressure approach and are left standing. All thru the Nab cup they allowed the ball too easily out of their forward line. Their forward pressure style is history now. Andre
Kel
Guest
Just curious Andre. Based on our preseason in 2009, where did you think we'd finish last year?
Redb
Roar Guru
Well you certanily couldn't put Gardiner on Barry Hall - unless it was in a boxing ring, he's way too slow to keep up with big Bazza.
BigAl
Guest
Gardiner is a log ! He had a few spectacular seconds last year which people cite to justify his signing. I wouldn't be surprised to see his form go from mediocre to bad this year. You could put King & dare I say Kosi. in the same basket ! - could be a big problem for the Saints this year ?
Dogz R Barkn
Roar Guru
Re the "bottom six players" comment, my observation of St Kilda last year is that Lyon was able to mould a good team of players that included a few rejects, and a few others who had not hit any great heights in previous seasons. To use the language of one famous VFL commentator, some average players became good-average players last season. I think it will be a very big ask for Lyon to replicate that feat two seasons running (say, 19+ wins, topping the table and a grand final appearance), with what is essentially the same personnel.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
Of course it's only the pre-season so there are obvous limitations in any predictions based on what we've seen so far... a point I made early in my article. And I'm sure if they have a good run with injuries the Saints are top 4 material, they have too many stars and a good game plan. From there they are as good a chance of making the GF as any of the other 3 sides that finish in the top 4 and they have plenty of winning finals experience now. If I had to make a predicion now I'd say they'll finish 3rd at the end of the hame and away season Will they/can they be as dominant as last season? I doubt it. And if they have a bad run of injuries to their top 6 players....? I just think the bookies and general public have overestimated their chances this season for the reasons I've identified.
Moonface
Roar Guru
I think the Saints will make the top 4 again despite their big loss in the NAB final. They won the NAB in 2008 and finished 2nd in the AFL. Geelong won the NAB last year and the premiership. Ususally a good indicator of their season ahead. Is this a good omen for the Bulldogs and Barry Hall, if he stays out of trouble.
Michael C
Roar Guru
St Kilda's premiership window is very much still alive - - especially as they lost so narrowly last season - - expect them to be there again (pending Riewoldt's fitness across the season!!). Would love the Doggies to get in there - - we all want a Doggies vs StKilda so that surely one of them might win!!!!! (trust them, they'd draw the damn thing!!). Might get a 2005/06 style repeat of Geel vs StK with the result going the other way.
Redb
Roar Guru
"I seriously believe they won’t make the eight let alone top four" I wouldn't go that far. Getting Lenny Hayes back in the midfield will help and they still have a potent forward line and good overall game plan. if they were to drop it might be out of the Top 4 at worst.
Andre Alexander
Guest
As a St Kilda supporter I could see towards the end of last year that they did not have the talent around the ground to match it with teams like Geelong, The Western Bulldogs even Essendon and even North Melbourne, the teams that beat them last year. They dropped off their disciplined tight defensive strategy and was horribly exposed. The five or six champions we have is obviously not enough to cover the whole game. The Nab Cup reinforced that view. I seriously believe they won't make the eight let alone top four. Andre Alexander
Kel
Guest
It's a big call, not sure we would have persisted with some of our kids if the win was as important as the season proper. Ross admitted the likes of Lenny and Gardiner would of played had it been a day final.
Tom
Guest
I believe St Kilda lost in the first round of the NAB cup last season. And they topped the ladder. So presumably if they're runners up this time round they'll finish in the bottom four.
Neil
Guest
Some pretty bizarre comments. Seaby's "brain fade" was in the 3rd quarter - can't see that 9 points instead of 6 automatically equates to a Saints loss. St.Kilda’s bottom six players were noticeably inferior to the Bulldogs bottom six? So Dylan Addison and Easton Wood would walk in to the Saints team? Do you know its the NAB Cup?
Redb
Roar Guru
Good article. I know its early to be suggesting St Kilda won't have a very good chance of going one step further in 2010, but IMO having watched a few of the Saints games compared to the Bulldogs, I have to say the Bullies look much more even across the ground, more skilled, but more importantly they looked hungrier. So perhaps its not that St Kilda's stocks have fallen so much as the Western Bulldogs have risen above them. Several passages of play in the NAB Cup Grand Final revealed the Bulldogs to be a team of momentum, somehow they managed to propel the ball forward in heavily contested situations - it's the hallmark of a very good team, a premiership team. You see it in Geelong now, I recall seeing it in the Bris Lions premiership years and before that in Essendon in the 1999-2001 era. Reiwoldt is a star, an armour plated forward with a huge engine and courage to match but is he enough?