Queensland Reds player Digby Ioane (centre) during the Super 14 rugby match between the Queensland Reds and the Bulls of South Africa at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Saturday, April 17, 2010. The Reds defeated the Bulls 19-12. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
The sensational Reds victory over the Bulls, in one of the best Super Rugby matches ever, has thrown open the finals possibilities. The top seven sides, in theory at least, are now in contention.
The table for the magnificent seven now reads: Crusaders and Bulls 34, Stormers 33, Reds 30, Waratahs 29, Brumbies 26, Blues 25.
The Hurricanes (22) claim that they have a theoretical chance but their brain-dead play against a lacklustre Brumbies side at Canberra suggests that any momentum will be stopped sooner or later by inept play and tactics.
I would expect the Waratahs to monster the Brumbies at the ANZ Stadium on Saturday night, which should put Brumbies supporters out of their finals expectation misery.
The Hurricanes have the most lethal backline in the tournament. So what did their halfback Tyson Keats do most of the match? Kick the ball away to the Brumbies.
The Brumbies were not slick enough to capitalise on these dreadful tactics. Matt Giteau is playing like a former great player who knows he has lost his genius for broken field running.
I make these points because the Reds and the Stormers both showed how the new/old interpretation of the tackled ball law (the tackled player MUST be allowed to place the ball) has changed the whole zeigeist of rugby.
The ball now should be treasured, not kicked away. We are back, if teams and coaches will only realise this, to the days of unlimited tackles. If a side is good enough in taking the ball into the tackle and contesting the ruck it can hold on to the ball indefinitely. The Reds often ran deep kickoffs back at the Bulls for many phases before kicking for territory.
The Reds also ran every high kick back at the Bulls. They forced the big Bulls forwards to run and run and run, until they were out on their feet at times. It was as if the Bulls were confronted with 15 matadors who teased them into false and tiring charges by clever, intelligent ball-in-hand play.
A little insight into the cleverness of the Reds tactics came when Ewen McKenzie revealed that they used Will Genia to probe the blindside and keep the defence honest on this side of the field, while Quade Cooper was given a licence to run things on the open side.
Two other points: first, Genia out-played Fourie du Preez who in my opinion has been the best halfback in world rugby for a number of year. Second, the Reds pack held its own against the big Bulls pack and created some confusion in the Bulls lineout.
They were able to double-team Victor Matfield so effectively that an errant Bulls throw was snaffled and the backs put Rod Davies away in the corner for the clinching score. Teams need good set piece skills to be championship contenders. The Reds, even though there are no current Wallabies in their pack, seem to have these skills.
This victory, too, was achieved with a South African referee, Marius Jonker, who made a schoolboy howler in allowing a ball to go through the scrum to be picked up and planted over the Reds line by a Bulls forward. Also, the Reds returned from South Africa during the week before the match.
Next Friday’s match at Lang Park against the storming Stormers, hopefully before a huge crowd, will be a definitive test for the Reds. If they can win this match, they are virtually assured of a finals place.
In all likelihood this could be a home final as they play, after the Stormers, the Brumbies at Canberra, the Hurricanes at Wellington and the Highlanders at Brisbane in a comparatively easy run of matches.
The Stormers on their showing against the Chiefs, who were admittedly pathetic with their skills and tactics, suggested that they might be the best of the South African sides. They have a toughish run home, though, playing after the next week the Crusaders at Cape Town, the Sharks at Durban and the Bulls at Cape Town.
Working for the Reds is the fact that their main competition for finals spots, the Bulls, Stormers and the Crusaders all play each other. And the result of the last pool round game of the 2010 tournament, the Sharks-Bulls match, could as in previous years be crucial as to the make-up of the finals.
The two Australian teams in the hunt – the Reds and the Waratahs – have easier matches at the end of the tournament than the other main contenders, the Bulls, Stormers, and Crusaders.
The Blues, too, although they have three matches in South Africa (against the Sharks, the Cheetahs and Lions) and finish with a match against the Chiefs at Eden Park, have potentially a great run home. But this team is so flakey and so far behind the leading five teams that you’d be foolish to believe that they can play with any consistency after another hot-cold season to blast their way through the pack.
I suggested a couple of week ago that we are looking at two Australian teams in the finals. This suggestion is more than ever in play after the Reds’ terrific victory. But don’t ask me right now to predict the other two teams in the finals.
It’ll all be a bit clearer, or perhaps not, after next week’s round. What we can say is that this is one of the best Super Rugby tournaments we’ve had since the journey began in 1996, and that the Reds victory was one of the great wins in that time.
damo
Guest
At last we are all talking about good rugby instead of lousy coaching, selecting or refereeing
True Tah
Guest
The Reds v Bulls game was closer and they are two great teams, whereas the Stormers game featured a great team playing a bunch of journeymen, little wonder the Stormers cruised in.
kovana
Guest
An idea right now for the pacific islands.. At the moment we have the PRC club comp, with 2 teams from Fiji, 2 from Tonga and 2 from Samoa.. hopefully in the future we can include teams from PNG, cook islands etc.. Anyways... We play in a round robin style and the end the Top 2 battle it out to win the PRC crown. But thats about it. Im hoping in the future, the winner of the PRC will gain entry into the super comp. BUT only the winner of the PRC can enter.. So if savaii samoa wins the PRC, they gain entry into the super comp. The following year the suva barbaians win and gain entry into the Super comp... But not savaii samoa.... So promotion/relegation type thingy Its a good incentive for teams to try and win the PRC so they can gain entry into a expanded super comp.
Hammer
Guest
"(further expansion pending of course)." .. oh good god
inkosi
Roar Rookie
**(further expansion pending of course)** Over on one of the Saffa websites they're already talking about the Super 18 come 2013 so that the Southern Kings can also be included because they're busy throwing their toys out the cot!
Brett McKay
Guest
Wits, the arguments certainly will be interesting considering teams won't play all others. From reports earlier this month, it could be decided just by a rotating alphabetical list too, meaning next year the Brumbies won't play the Bulls and Blues, the Force won't play the Cheetahs and Chiefs, and so on. Each year it would rotate a notch, with the intent being that by the fifth year, we'd be back to the original draw (further expansion pending of course). As if there isn't enough for us to do our heads in over...
Rugbywits
Guest
I just thought... Imagine when we have the conference system in play next year. All the debating about whether this team with this many wins is better than another team with that many wins against this conference is going to get very very complicated and probably more and more polarising with the 'my conference' is better than yours debate etc. Its good for rugby! Everyone getting a little too excited and everyone getting all uptight about every single result. It will be fantastic.
Rugbywits
Guest
I think the salaries of players and increased exposure of players to media makes them harder to coach. Based on what youve said I think I've solidified that thought. Now, Genia has been very exposed to media as a captain this year and I think that the way he has continued to adapt his game to the coaches needs and wants is a testiment to the charater of the guy not just his ability. There are plenty of players in the Brumbies and NSW outfit with GREAT ability, but I think because the individuals in the team arent as coachable as some of the ones at the Reds you have more rub and more times the 1% is found out at this level. Cohesion is incredibly important. Especially playing a fast game.
Rugbywits
Guest
I agree that the extended phases is not the 'only' key to winning the games. It is "helping" them though. Especially the Reds against the Bulls. Not for the reasons that it automatically lreads to tries. But more for the reason the Reds were able to pummel the Bulls, they were running them off their feets. The Bulls are a team that kick a fair bit and when ALMOST ALL of those kicks are returned on the ground and you have to make tackle after tackle you do get tired. So no, the phases arent guaranteeing the tries, they are killing off the other teams stamina and defensive cohesion. The Reds are making the most of it because they are a very very speedy creative team with great ball skills. The Waratahs were MURDERING the luxury of repeated phase play because they werent quick enough about it. I wrote twice about that last week - http://www.rugbywits.com/rugbywits/2010/04/the-pressure-builds.html I actually wrote about how the pressure kills a team. As for Aussie teams making the finals. There are some important games to come. we could have 3 or we could have none. Im thinking probably only 1 will make it. But for two to make it BOTH the Tahs and the Reds need to beat the Brumbies. I love the Reds atm, and I'm a massive fan of their style. Right now though their style still has a bit of the Year 10 rugby class beat the Year12 class feel to it. And I know its because of their torrid time of recent years too, but the team still gives a little of that vibe. I know that will eventually turn into rugged, mature, knowing your own ability to win regularly but I just hope they dont have to lose a few times to work that out.
warrenexpatinnz
Guest
Forgot, Higginbothams run was a standout moment but hasn't this guy gone from strength to strength and perhaps the most mobile loose forward in Aussie at the moment. My only comparison to him at the moment on the Aussie scene would Dennis from the Tahs with Rocky and Chislom off the pace.
warrenexpatinnz
Guest
Although the Bulls v Reds was a cracking contest the Bulls were a tad flat where as the Stormers are coming in red hot and playing great attacking rugby. Can't see it being any less than a great game. The speed of that Reds backline is perhaps the best of any other Super 14 side as especially seen in the first 20 minutes against the Bullsand although the Stormers have the best defensive line I would think the Reds can make some holes with that speed and vice versa.
kovana
Guest
Did anyone notice that the Reds had a slightly bigger crowd then the Broncos? And yes.. I hope this weeks match against the Stormers is even bigger... The reds have a potential Obstacle with both the Hurricanes and Brumbies in the following weeks.. But i hope they can account for them... Hoi.... Go reds!!
Tim Reardon
Guest
The Reds are certainly magic to watch. One aspect of their play that Ive not heard mentioned is the ability of Will Chambers to consistently draw two defenders therefore giving his colleagues space. He is not a great all-round rugby player, but he frequently chooses to draw two players and pass the ball, rather than try to beat the man in front of him.
sheek
Guest
Jervois, Obviously you are the victim of a roar readers practical prank. I think 3 thumbs down constitutes a poor hit - easy to play havoc on this site!
Jervois
Guest
This has to be one of the most outrageous censorships I have ever come across, I simply stated some facts and wow I'm moderated. That is disgusting to say the least and truly shows the mosderators and or my fellow Aussie posters to be extrememly poor sports. Wow I never knew having a rather open view was such a bad thing to do nor did I realise that roarers could not accept the facts. Astounding!!!
Lindommer
Guest
By far the most crucial point left in this year's Super comp is the fact the current top three teams play each other in the last three rounds. One or two of them WILL lose ground or mark time relative to the Tahs or Reds. I agree with Spiro: there's a very good chance of two Australian teams in the finals this year. My money's on the Tahs and Reds.
Lindommer
Guest
The Crusaders have by far the worst draw of any of the seven remaining finals contenders: a tricky match in Perth (the Force's last home game of the season, they should have everyone back on deck by then) followed by two fixtures in RSA, against the Stormers AND the Bulls, and a long flight back home to face the Brumbies (who have to wander across from Canberra). The only other team who has to cross the Indian Ocean twice is the Blues and they face the SAf easybeats, the two pussy cats. The Crusaders' draw could easily be their undoing. If the Crusaders can "get out of 3rd gear" and win the comp, they deserve it!
Lindommer
Guest
Joubert was on the opposite to the halfback putting the ball in so the ball came out right in front of him! I had a good look in slo-slo-mo tonight and couldn't see why that scrum wasn't rest. But, I will say in Joubert's favour the camera was on the put-in side, he must've seen something we didn't. Christ only knows what.
Wavell Wakefield
Roar Rookie
I'm still massively unsure about the abilities of the Stormers, and they don't have the easiest run-in. First up is the resurgent Reds, then the slog back to SA to play the Crusaders and then a trip away to the Sharks. What with the last game being against the Bulls potentially they could end up with zero wins from four. I'd be surprised if that happened, but it's definitely a possibility. The Bulls have a more manageable fixture list, but then I think I'd take the Stormers to win an away semi-final rather than the Bulls.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
The smart money would be on an all-South African final, but I don't think you can rule out an upset. Likewise, I think both the Stormers and Bulls would have a better than even chance of winning an away semi if it comes down to that.